TR UAV/UCAV Programs | Anka - series | Kızılelma | TB - series

[Oublious]

All above posts are positive sides. If I become the devil’s advocate;

Are kamikaze drones really that effective?

Shaheeds in Ukraine have a hit rate of around 10-15%. Majority being shot by cheap gun systems. Only in swarm mode could they be more effective. Russians claim up to 45% success rate on swarm mode, which is a little suspect. In fact unconfirmed reports suggest les than 30% rate.
Nevertheless, it is a fact that in swarm mode these weapons are more survivable and have more success as they can overcome defence systems in great numbers.

In Epic fury US reports 90-95% success rate in downing the Shaheeds.

Shaheeds cost around 20000 to 30000 dollars. It would be interesting to see the price of K2.

It would also be useful if Baykar were designing a K2 derivative with stealth characteristics. Expendable or not, we want these to hit their targets in one way or another without getting shot down.

It does not have to destroy, only make them busy and use ther airdefence stock. Look to Americans they are using now ther stockpiles from Pacifics.

 

[Ripley]

It does not have to destroy, only make them busy and use ther airdefence stock. Look to Americans they are using now ther stockpiles from Pacifics.

Against kamikaze drones or BMs?

 

[Sanchez]

All above posts are positive sides. If I become the devil’s advocate;

Are kamikaze drones really that effective?

Shaheeds in Ukraine have a hit rate of around 10-15%. Majority being shot by cheap gun systems. Only in swarm mode could they be more effective. Russians claim up to 45% success rate on swarm mode, which is a little suspect. In fact unconfirmed reports suggest les than 30% rate.
Nevertheless, it is a fact that in swarm mode these weapons are more survivable and have more success as they can overcome defence systems in great numbers.

In Epic fury US reports 90-95% success rate in downing the Shaheeds.

Shaheeds cost around 20000 to 30000 dollars. It would be interesting to see the price of K2.

It would also be useful if Baykar were designing a K2 derivative with stealth characteristics. Expendable or not, we want these to hit their targets in one way or another without getting shot down.

We shouldn't count things in a vacuum. Same Shaheds also force Ukraine to employ tens of thousands of TDF guys manning otherwise useless posts to wait for and defend against drones coming to cities, sometimes 1000kms away from the frontline.

TAF is a NATO army. If TAF decides to employ these kamikaze drones, attritable drones or one way effectors in meaningful numbers, it will employ them as part of a larger doctrine. TAF doesn't have a total war doctrine in place except for defensive warfare. We won't use them like Russia as terror assets or Iran because we have nothing else to use.

 

[Khagan1923]

Do we have anyone actually working on a Shahed clone for TSK? K2 is nice and all but imo we need our own cheap and expandable Shahed clone.

 

[Huelague]

It won’t be as dirt cheap as Shahed but definitely cheaper than TB2.

T2 seems like a new Turkish attempt at UCAV doctrine catalog.
Not exactly flat out kamikaze while also neither an expensive long range smart weapon such as a cruise missile. A swarm as loitering kamikazes or like @Kaan Azman pointed, with payloads to deploy over targets.

I, personally, don’t really care if we can export or create strategic partnerships or project geopolitical power through arms deals with other nations. For me first and foremost comes the security of Turkey. First we should satisfy safety needs.
Every other concern to me are secondary but will be just great if we can get ‘em

I mean cheap to produce en masse for us. In all military confrontation we can see that quantity has same value as quality. To produce in big numbers, we need money. Money we generate by exports.
Israel vs Iran is the comparison quantity vs quality.

 

[Sanchez]

Do we have anyone actually working on a Shahed clone for TSK? K2 is nice and all but imo we need our own cheap and expandable Shahed clone.

We have multiple drones with similar capabilities; and many of them were used in conflicts, but not by us. TAF is not really interested in them i think so far.

 

[Huelague]

Haluk Bayraktar says price of K2 is "1/50" of conventional military guided munitions with equivalent range. If we assume even at most 4-5 million dolars lets say per tomahawk missile, that means 100-150.000 USD per K2. I would consider under 200.000 USD per unit is cheap, 100.000 usd is dirt cheap

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032762475075023141

It seems that K2 has a lower RCS than Shahed-136 with a smaller fuselage, which is more difficult to hit. This could make this more successful than Shahed-136. And who knows, maybe Baykar put some nice features into it, to make it more worth.

 

[Oublious]

Against kamikaze drones or BMs?

Kamikaze drones, look to Sudan. We used several Akinci against Chinese Shorad system. You can use it make your enemy busy and go attack with your Fighter jets after. IT has to be cheap.

 

[Ripley]

Kamikaze drones, look to Sudan. We used several Akinci against Chinese Shorad system. You can use it make your enemy busy and go attack with your Fighter jets after. IT has to be cheap.

I’m confused. US transferring its 6 Patriot batteries from the Pacific to deploy Iran front to shoot down Shahed drones?

 

[Yasar_TR]

It does not have to destroy, only make them busy and use ther airdefence stock. Look to Americans they are using now ther stockpiles from Pacifics.

That is false economy. It s not feasible to shoot thousands of 30thousand dollar Shaheeds with 3 to 4 million dollar AD missile each time. You would soon end up spending billions.

Ukranians use 50 caliber guns fitted on to pickups to bring them down. We have a similar gun based system to overcome these drones. They can be brought down with EW as well.

In Turkish Armed Forces we had an unfilled position for a good loitering and long range munition/UCAV. From what we can see with K2, this hole is going to be filled. But as we are always aspiring to better any other weapon system, attrition rate of K2 has to be minimised. Best way to do that is to get stealth factor in to the equation. Even Iranians are trying to find ways to make their Shaheeds less noisy and smaller. The less they are shot down means the more of them are going through to cause serious damage.

 

[boredaf]

All above posts are positive sides. If I become the devil’s advocate;

Are kamikaze drones really that effective?

Shaheeds in Ukraine have a hit rate of around 10-15%. Majority being shot by cheap gun systems. Only in swarm mode could they be more effective. Russians claim up to 45% success rate on swarm mode, which is a little suspect. In fact unconfirmed reports suggest les than 30% rate.
Nevertheless, it is a fact that in swarm mode these weapons are more survivable and have more success as they can overcome defence systems in great numbers.

In Epic fury US reports 90-95% success rate in downing the Shaheeds.

Shaheeds cost around 20000 to 30000 dollars. It would be interesting to see the price of K2.

It would also be useful if Baykar were designing a K2 derivative with stealth characteristics. Expendable or not, we want these to hit their targets in one way or another without getting shot down.

Russia has been regularly hitting Ukrainian targets with Gerans for quite a while, including sensitive targets like power stations. I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of Ukraine btw, both sides are lying constantly. All we can know for certain is they have hit fuck ton of critical targets and the damage they caused probably cost more than the combined price of all the Gerans Russia launched.

If you want to saturate air defences, there is simply no better option than going high/low with expensive missiles and cheap kamikaze drones. And this will be cheaper than a cruise missile or a ballistic missile even if it cost 5 times more than a Shahed.

Most expensive part of a drone is its electronics, this thing will have a composite body, a cheap EO just used during terminal guidance for image recognition probably and a cheap diesel/turbodiesel engine, which will probably be the most expensive part of this particular drone, other than software. I'd be honestly shocked if this drone costs even 100k dollars.

And from a stealth point of view, there isn't much you can do while you have a propeller. Making it a pusher (clean up to front profile) and building it out of composite material that is mostly transparent to radar is about all you can do. The overall shape is already stealthier than a Geran since its not a cylinder with delta wings attached to it. If the winglets are chined probably and canards are angled (and both are made from radar transparent composites) that is as close to you can get to having flying wing without making one.

 

[Skyfall]

I was wondering if the propeller could be jettisoned at some point, perhaps even the wings so that it would be more stealth on descent to the target.

 

[Pilatino]

Many people keep arguing that we should just replicate the cheap Iranian-style kamikaze drones. While we’ve already built those (and even Harop-style loitering munitions), what we are seeing now is a total shift in the rules of engagement. It’s not just a drone; it’s a Swiss Army Knife with a scalpel made against enemies with complex capabilities rather than some random sorry ass thug like proxies. I mean you need to come up with a better idea and solution against them rather than a silly shahed knockoff.

Think of it as a "Matryoshka doll" of destruction. We are looking at a platform capable of carrying:

EW & Decoys to blind and confuse.
Anti-Radiation heads to sniff out active sensors.
Thermobaric & High-Fragmentation (Gazap style warheads for saturation.
Micro-Suicide Drones (like Kemankeş/2) launched from the main carrier.

Imagine being an air defense operator on a Greek island. You’re scanning the skies for high-altitude threats like the Kızılelma, but the moment you flip that radar switch, it’s game over. The swarm is already there. If you turn the radar on, the Anti-Radiation seekers home in on your signal. If you leave it off, they’ll find you anyway via electro-optics. It’s a literal "checkmate" from above.

The fact that these units are recoverable if no high-value target is found and can be deployed from TCG Anadolu is a game-changer. We’re talking about a cost-effective, 2000 km deep reach that can conduct comprehensive ops from the sea. It’s an "all-in-one" death-from-above package.

P.S. One thing we still need to double down on is the V-BAT concept VTOL platforms that can launch from anywhere without a runway. Even the US is pivoting hard toward this (copying other's cool concepts and things), and we shouldn't let pride get in the way of adopting such a winning design. We’ve played our hand perfectly so far; let’s keep that Machiavellian momentum going.

 

[Kitra]

That is false economy. It s not feasible to shoot thousands of 30thousand dollar Shaheeds with 3 to 4 million dollar AD missile each time. You would soon end up spending billions.

Ukranians use 50 caliber guns fitted on to pickups to bring them down. We have a similar gun based system to overcome these drones. They can be brought down with EW as well.

In Turkish Armed Forces we had an unfilled position for a good loitering and long range munition/UCAV. From what we can see with K2, this hole is going to be filled. But as we are always aspiring to better any other weapon system, attrition rate of K2 has to be minimised. Best way to do that is to get stealth factor in to the equation. Even Iranians are trying to find ways to make their Shaheeds less noisy and smaller. The less they are shot down means the more of them are going through to cause serious damage.

1. AAA guns are limited due to their cost and short range and are easy targets for aircraft, as evident by Karabag/Iran/....
Dedicated small 1k$ drones that can be carried and launched by a single soldier are better options, similar to what Ukraine is doing.

2. Shahed does not have communication or cameras. It relies on INS and russian Glanoss + Chinese Baidu to go to a specific target.
So, EW will not work with them. Had they had a simple camera for geolocation, then even GPS spoofing would not have worked.
They are designed specifically to avoid very strong American and Israeli EW, hence why the USA and Israel are using very expensive hard-kill methods to take them down.

3. Turkey also needs 10000s of super cheap EW safe kamikaze drones to saturate any defence, similar to what Iran is doing now. Hence, these drones must not cost more than the Shahed, i.e. about 10k$. If we spent $1 billion on these, then we could get 100k drones, or about six months' worth of supply in a hot conflict with a superpower.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Produce 1 million suicide drones of various capacities and Israel cannot afford to start a war against you. Cheap solution really to whatever advantages the enemy has.

The Iranian war with ballistic missiles and "dumb"suicide drones and nothing else is able to create absolute havoc for the USA, let alone Israel.

His son was addicted to twitter, he seems to have gone silent too.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032931360126677448

 

[Pilatino]

Produce 1 million suicide drones of various capacities and Israel cannot afford to start a war against you. Cheap solution really to whatever advantages the enemy has.

The Iranian war with ballistic missiles and "dumb"suicide drones and nothing else is able to create absolute havoc for the USA, let alone Israel.

Yes but ballistic missiles are not cheap, Iranians mass produced those cuz they had no any other option to project power around. Ballistic Missiles are like sledgehammers but K2 is a scapel. You can evaise from a hammer somehow or you can't swing that hammer non-stop if you are not like iran (No any other option and have natural reserves to keep the momentum with it despite all the odds like embargoes etc.)... However you can swing a scapel without any real effort and when it hits can be deadlier than a hammer in most cases. These are just my two cents btw and doesn't change the need of balance as in every aspect of life.