Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625543927469346818

 

[Gary]

WW1 style trench warfare, u cud see someone getting shot while trying to storm the trench.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626508822557884417

 

[Relic]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626582948156968960

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626583836753805316

I've been following the production buildup of artillery rounds for Ukraine closely and this is roughly what I've come up with so far. Note that not all production quantities have been released.

USA: Their intent is to ramp up to 40,000 rounds of 155mm production per month by this spring (April / May timeline). Further ramping up of production will take 12 to 18 months.

Germany: It's unclear what Germany will produce moving forward on a continued basis, but Rheinmetall has committed to producing 300,000 rounds of 155mm by this summer (July / August timeline). After that order is filled, it's unclear what the production rate will be for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.

Canada: General Dynamics Ordnance is currently in negotiations with the American military, to produce 12,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition each month, for an undisclosed period of time. General Dynamics Ordnance is the regular producer of artillery shells for the Canadian Armed Forces.

France / Australia: The French and Australians recently signed an agreement to produce 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. The contract was awarded to French weapons manufacturer Nexter, and no details were provided regarding quantity of ammunition being produced, nor its delivery timeline.

Britain: In fall 2022, BAE Land Systems agreed to ramp up their productions of 155mm artillery rounds for the British Government. The production increase total was not made public , but it's believed that production will increase into the neighbourhood of 10,000-15,000 rounds per month. The timeline for the ramp up has not been disclosed.

Slovakia: Artillery round production in Slovakia was about 19,000 rounds per year prior to the war. In 2022 the Slovaks announced that they would be expanding production to 100,000 rounds per year, which equates to roughly 8300 rounds per month. No timeline was given for the production ramp up. Of important note, Slovak firm ZVS Holding produces 122mm and 152mm artillery rounds, compatible with Ukraine's significant quantity of Soviet / Russian made artillery.

Czech Republic: Prior to the war, the Czechs were producing approximately 1/3 of all artillery made in Europe each year. Czech manufacturer CSG leads the way in production, with pre-war capacity of 100,000 rounds per year, however, they announced that due demand, they would be expanding production to 150,000 rounds year, which equates to 12,500 rounds per month. Like the Slovaks, the Czechs produce both 155mm ammunition and the much needed 152mm and 122mm Russian caliber ammunition.

Ukraine: It's been noted that Ukraine continues to produce its own 152mm and 122mm artillery rounds, but where, and at what rate, is a tightly guarded secret. One can only imagine that production lines are limited in nature on Ukrainian territory, but there are bigger questions about whether or not Ukrainian firms have been able to set up production capacity in neighbouring countries.

Other Parties: There is no doubt that countries such as Sweden and Poland have also increased their production capacity, but by how much and over what time frame, is unknown at this point. Furthermore, Ukraine has received unknown quantities of ammunition from third party sources such as Pakistan, Morocco, Turkey and South Korea (backfilling USA and Canada).

With the numbers you see above, and the small quantities of other production that I'm unaware of (and not including in this post as a result), I suspect that Ukraine's access to artillery ammunition with ramp up into the 90,000-120,000 shell per month range, by the spring, which will allow them to sustain a 3000-4000 round per day pace, moving forward. By the summer, I suspect that number will increase into the 4000-5000 round per day range, and by early 2024 that number should increase, again, into the 6000-7000 round per day range.

 

[Ecderha]

Free flying lessons for putin soldiers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626571877018918914

 

[Ecderha]

February 15, is the birthday of Dzhokhar Dudayev.
The person who knew exactly what russia is capable of.
Dudayev was the great Chechen leader who foresaw russia's evil. So they killed him.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626003467780194304

 

[Ecderha]

putin’s continuing problem to control his legs and arms has been visible again today, when he met Lukashenko.
This man is medically sick.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626630311491563520

 

[Nilgiri]

Gives some impression of what its like out there in trench warfare for Ukraine forces

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626658721513234437

 

[Kathirz]

Ok going along the same place where your vehicles were destroyed in a previous assault... What could go wrong?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626684641175384064

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626625842645172224

 

[Kathirz]

Bradleys are a bit closer:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626674138508058633

 

[Nilgiri]

Contains a lot to do with Ukraine war deeper layers. Kraut's own summary was:

The war in Ukraine is overly "depoliticised". That meaning, people exclusively look at it from a geopolitical lense. Often refusing to acknowledge internal political developments within Ukraine, and mainly applying theories of geopolitics that I believe can be incredibly misleading. One of these is realism as advocated by john Mearsheimer. And in this video i would like to present you with some points arguing against the realist position on Ukraine.

All interested members can watch at their leisure, muse upon things and maybe continue deeper debate/discussion as they prefer in the thread here:

Combat, War, Geopolitics History and Analysis

Austrians are just Southern Germans just like Bavarians. Austrians have always been Germans they only got left out in German unification due to Prussia. German history since the 1700s has been characterised by the Prussia-Austria rivalry both wanted to control all of Germany. Not to mention...

defencehub.live

 

[clonda]

putin’s continuing problem to control his legs and arms has been visible again today, when he met Lukashenko.
This man is medically sick.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626630311491563520

He wants to pee

 

[Nykyus]

How many opponents did zelensky have killed?

Is there a person or group in Ukraine who can oppose Zelensky right now? Democracy? autocracy? king zelensky

“One less traitor”: Zelensky oversees campaign of assassination, kidnapping and torture of political opposition | MR Online

While claiming to defend democracy, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has outlawed his opposition, ordered his rivals’ arrest, and presided over the disappearance and assassination of dissidents across the country.

mronline.org

If now any group opposes Zelensky, they will be destroyed as traitors and agents of Putin. There was also Medvedchuk, whom Putin exchanged for the captured soldiers of Azov, who fought in Mariupol surrounded.
Potential opposition such as Yulia Timoshenko said that for now they will be united in front of aggression and now is not the time for strife.

 

[Gary]

The side effect of war. @blackjack

A Russian Engineer Is Set to Spill Secrets to the U.S. About the 'White Swan' Bomber​

The man, according to Yahoo! News, drove up to the border with his family—in an armored SUV—asking for political asylum. The man identified himself as a former civil engineer who worked at the Kazan Aviation Plant. The man claimed to have worked on an “attack jet,” but was worried that his past support for Russian political dissident Alexei Navalny would get him in trouble.

A Russian Engineer Is Set to Spill Secrets to the U.S. About the 'White Swan' Bomber

He’s offering the valuable intel in exchange for asylum.

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[Gary]

I saw a lot of mockery from the internet on how Syrian/Libyan/Iraqi war combatants fire their AKs around the 2010s. Now I saw Ukrainians and Russians doing the same.
Truth is tacticool shooting works most of the time in Garand thumb shoot for fun video or spec ops movies.

Welcome to the real battlefield

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625341505664606208

 

[Kathirz]

Long-range missiles finally coming?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626926900324012032

How could be the 250 km range of export version of Storm Shadow:

 

[Umigami]

Long-range missiles finally coming?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626926900324012032

How could be the 250 km range of export version of Storm Shadow:

View attachment 54195

Storm shadow?

 

[Relic]

Good for the UK! Whether it's Storm Shadow, or another long range variant, even 100 missiles with range out to 150+km will make a huge difference. Ukraine's goal is to choke the Russian offensive of supplies, and the Russian military leadership has moved many of its weapons and ammunition stockpiles, logistical hubs, as well as command posts, out beyond HIMARS range. We know that GLSDB is coming from the Americans at some point, but the Ukraine needs a shorter term solution to strike Russian positions right to the border and in Crimea.

What I hate about announcements such as these is that the UK is basically giving Russia a heads up, so that they can move some of their more valuable assets back into Russia. The move, politically, will be viewed as less "escalatory" in nature is Russia knows the technology is coming. I'd much rather they let the Ukrainians get an initial strike in, splattering a bunch of Russian leadership and destroying some key assets, then announce the delivery of whatever long range tool they've supplied.... Tactical surprise would have been nice.

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

Britain will support allies who can send jets to Ukraine immedeatly

Watch: Send fighter jets to Ukraine and we will back you, Sunak tells allies

Prime Minister's speech at Munich conference came as Polish leader announced he would send MiGs to help Kyiv

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Ecderha]

Airborne paratrooper knocked out a Russian T-90M MBT from an FGM-148 Javelin from a distance of 1.5 km
T-70, T80, T90, armata all are same junk

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626952907911311360

 

[Ecderha]

as 95% time russian advance failed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626832115621933058