Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[UkroTurk]

Russia will not be able to capture Donbass until the end of 2023 - US intelligence

Daily Briefing: War in Ukraine: Explosions Reported in Central Kyiv and Across Ukraine in Early Morning Attacks (Published 2023)

There were reports that infrastructure was hit in Odesa, and power outages in Kharkiv. Here is what we’re covering:

www.nytimes.com

Russia will face personnel problems, despite the mobilization carried out



The Kremlin underestimated the strength of Ukrainian resistance. It is getting harder and harder for Russians to fight in Ukraine.

The Russian leadership could be mistaken in the abilities of the Ukrainian army. As the US intelligence community reports in its annual Threat Report, the occupiers will continue to face more challenges in the future.

"Putin likely misjudged the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the extent of their success on the battlefield. The Russian military has faced and will continue to face problems of attrition, lack of personnel and morale, which makes their forces vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks," the report says. .

According to intelligence, the mobilization announced by Putin last fall can only replenish the staff in the near future. However, it can also undermine the confidence in the actions of the country's leadership on the part of its citizens.



"The full effect of the partial mobilization will only begin to be felt in the spring and summer. Although Russian forces continue to concentrate in the Donbas, they probably will not be able to occupy it completely in 2023," intelligence reports.

2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

Date: March 8, 2023 This annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States responds to Section 617 of the FY21 I...

www.dni.gov

 

[Ecderha]

Just wait until the end. russian junk will throw the turret

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633488964014448640

 

[Kathirz]

No está tan equivocado, o al menos en mi opinión. en esta guerra hay 4 culpables: el estado ucraniano; el estado ruso; Estados Unidos y la OTAN
la culpa del estado ucraniano es haber estado bombardeando su propio territorio durante 8 años y haber estado financiando a grupos mercenarios como el batallon azov y compañia para aniquilar a los separatistas del donbass la culpa de rusia es haber invadido territorio ajeno (aunque lo
digan con la excusa de salvar o ayudar a los separatistas de Donbass)
la culpa de EEUU estaría muy relacionada con la OTAN; ya que ha estado presionando a esta alianza occidental para poner bases militares en territorio ucraniano, lo que cualquier país ve como una amenaza (básicamente es que un país que es tu enemigo, está colocando su ejército muy cerca de ti y con posibilidad de atacar a tu territorio cuando quieras)
La culpa de la OTAN es básicamente dar armas a Ucrania y aplicar un doble rasero
Y yo pondría como extra a la Unión Europea, que está jodiendo a toda Europa con las sanciones que perjudican más a Europa que a Rusia.

Welcome to the forum Thebestfisher12.
I invite you to take a moment and read the forum rules, here: https://defencehub.live/help/terms/ . As you can understand being a forum with international reach, we should use English as language. Thanks for your understanding.

Use of foreign languages
DefenceHub welcomes all users from the world; however, for ease of communication all posts should be in English. Use of other languages is acceptable, if proper translation is provided within the post.

I'll translate your post, but feel free to correct me.

You are not so wrong, or at least in my opinion. in this war there are 4 culprits: the Ukrainian state; the Russian state; United States and NATO the fault of the ukrainian state is having been bombing its own territory for 8 years and having been financing mercenary groups such as the azov battalion and company to annihilate the separatists of the donbass the fault of russia is having invaded foreign territory (although it say with the excuse of saving or helping the separatists of Donbass) the fault of the USA would be closely related to NATO; since it has been pressuring this western alliance to put military bases on Ukrainian territory, which any country sees as a threat (basically it is that a country that is your enemy, is placing its army very close to you and with the possibility of attacking your territory whenever you want) NATO's fault is basically arming Ukraine and applying double standards And I would put the European Union as an extra, which is screwing all of Europe with sanctions that harm Europe more than Russia.

 

[Nilgiri]

RIP Danylo Murashko and fair winds to you up there.

As an aside, it reminds me of a (WW2 RAF) comic strip story that I would read repeatedly as a kid (it was in a larger WW2 collection my uncle had from the "Commando" series that he bound all together into one hardcover book as notable "hero" series)

.... a Lancaster pilot refusing to bail out (from damage it had received on mission and massive fire that had spread on the plane) because he saw there was a town headed his way...so he went down with his plane (telling everyone else to bail) in order to keep the plane away from the town....

At the very end the townspeople all see (awestruck) in the sky the doomed burning plane till it crashes in hills some distance away (saving their lives).

Later they learn just who it was (kid from their own town) and they unveiled plaque at the ancient stones in those hills he would (as a boy) go to daydream to become a pilot saying:

"Near this spot, a hero died so that others may live"'

Of course various fictional+anecdotal elements were added to it to make it a more complete story (for a comic)....But in its essence was compound story based on actual such feats like these ones that happened in that war:

Monday marks 75 years since Second World War hero sacrificed his own life to save lives in Darlington

Monday evening marks the 75th anniversary of the moment a Canadian airman sacrificed his own life to save a town

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk

Memorial Lancaster JB 652 - Halesworth - TracesOfWar.com

www.tracesofwar.com

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/lancaster-bomber-pilots-sacrifice-saved-his-crew-x.html?chrome=1

Ukraine should commemorate its heroes well given what they inspire in others.... dont forget them.

 

[Thebestfisher12]

No hablo Espanol.
Translato por favor!

true, I apologize, I thought I had sent the message in English.
Here would be the translation of the message:

he is not so wrong, or at least in my opinion. in this war there are 4 culprits: the Ukrainian state; the Russian state; United States and NATO
the fault of the ukrainian state is having been bombing its own territory for 8 years and having been financing mercenary groups such as the azov battalion and company to annihilate the separatists of the donbass the fault of russia is having invaded foreign territory (although it
say with the excuse of saving or helping the separatists of Donbass)
the fault of the USA would be closely related to NATO; since it has been pressuring this western alliance to put military bases on Ukrainian territory, which any country sees as a threat (basically it is that a country that is your enemy, is placing its army very close to you and with the possibility of attacking your territory whenever you want)
NATO's fault is basically arming Ukraine and applying double standards
And I would put the European Union as an extra, which is screwing all of Europe with sanctions that harm Europe more than Russia.

 

[Thebestfisher12]

Welcome to the forum Thebestfisher12.
I invite you to take a moment and read the forum rules, here: https://defencehub.live/help/terms/ . As you can understand being a forum with international reach, we should use English as language. Thanks for your understanding.



I'll translate your post, but feel free to correct me.

thank you so much
It was my mistake because I thought I had sent the text in English. but from what I see I got confused and sent the text in my language.
I apologize

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

Multiple reports are suggesting that Russia is sending at least 15 Tu-95MS strategic bombers to launch a huge barrage of cruise missiles. If true, we could see the most significant bombing campaign since the beginning of the war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633615849897467905

Update: it's happening

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633630363279925250

 

[Ryder]

Multiple reports are suggesting that Russia is sending at least 15 Tu-95MS strategic bombers to launch a huge barrage of cruise missiles. If true, we could see the most significant bombing campaign since the beginning of the war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633615849897467905

Update: it's happening

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633630363279925250

Russians have now accepted they are in war.

Took a long time to realise.

Ukraine needs to find ways to counter these bombers.

If a Bear and a Blackjack gets shot down. Another Russian L

 

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633630850951811078

Should have been done a decade ago.

It will take years for Ukraine to fly American and European made jets.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

true, I apologize, I thought I had sent the message in English.
Here would be the translation of the message:

he is not so wrong, or at least in my opinion. in this war there are 4 culprits: the Ukrainian state; the Russian state; United States and NATO
the fault of the ukrainian state is having been bombing its own territory for 8 years and having been financing mercenary groups such as the azov battalion and company to annihilate the separatists of the donbass the fault of russia is having invaded foreign territory (although it
say with the excuse of saving or helping the separatists of Donbass)
the fault of the USA would be closely related to NATO; since it has been pressuring this western alliance to put military bases on Ukrainian territory, which any country sees as a threat (basically it is that a country that is your enemy, is placing its army very close to you and with the possibility of attacking your territory whenever you want)
NATO's fault is basically arming Ukraine and applying double standards
And I would put the European Union as an extra, which is screwing all of Europe with sanctions that harm Europe more than Russia.

You're a good sport, pal.
Welcome to the forum.

 

[contricusc]

he is not so wrong, or at least in my opinion. in this war there are 4 culprits: the Ukrainian state; the Russian state; United States and NATO

There is only one part guilty for this war: Russia

the fault of the ukrainian state is having been bombing its own territory for 8 years and having been financing mercenary groups such as the azov battalion and company to annihilate the separatists of the donbass

What should have Ukraine been doing after having some of its regions taken over by some foreign armed mercenaries?

Just a hypothetical scenario: what if France armed some Catalan separatists and they would make an armed coup and take over Catalunia and declare independence (after killing representatives of the Spanish state)?

Should Spain just say, bad luck, we lost this province, we can’t do anything because if we try to take it back we will anger the French?

the fault of russia is having invaded foreign territory (although it
say with the excuse of saving or helping the separatists of Donbass)

Yes, they are at fault, you’re correct here.

the fault of the USA would be closely related to NATO; since it has been pressuring this western alliance to put military bases on Ukrainian territory, which any country sees as a threat (basically it is that a country that is your enemy, is placing its army very close to you and with the possibility of attacking your territory whenever you want)

No, you are getting it wrong here again. The US was pressuring nobody to put military bases in Ukrainian territory. In fact, it was Ukraine that wanted to join NATO for its own protection and NATO refusing.

Russia is afraid of NATO’s expansion not because NATO plans to attack it, but because Eastern European countries want to join NATO for their own safety. Once a country joins NATO, Russia can no longer bully it and invade it at will, as it has done in the past with Georgia and now Ukraine.

NATO's fault is basically arming Ukraine and applying double standards
And I would put the European Union as an extra, which is screwing all of Europe with sanctions that harm Europe more than Russia.

Arming Ukraine is NATO’s merit, not fault. The EU has also been doing a good job on sanctioning Russia, as the economic pressure will mount and the Russia economy will suffer greatly in the long term. Europe is much wealthier and economically powerfuk that Russia, and while the cost of energy may be more elevated for a while, it is a small price to pay for the defence of freedom and for an independent Ukraine,

The Ukrainians are suffering the most by doing the fighting and getting their country destroyed. As Europeans we are lucky it is not us who must do the fighting. The Ukrainians are fighting for us all, and we should be thankful to them instead of complaining about energy prices.

 

[UkroTurk]

Attack of the Russian Federation: explosions throughout Ukraine, many dead

Rocket attack on Kyiv on March 9, 2023

During a massive strike, the Russian invaders launched a record number of "İskanders" across the territory of Ukraine.

On the night of March 9, Ukraine experienced the largest rocket attack since the beginning of 2023. Russia has made 81 launches of missiles of different bases. Today, the Russians have used almost all types of their air weapons - from loitering ammunition to almost all types of cruise missiles.

In particular, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny said that Ukrainian defenders destroyed 34 missiles out of 48 X-101/X-555 and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as four Shahed-136/131 UAVs.

In general, the enemy did:

• 28 x-101/x-555 cruise missile launches;
• 20 launches of Caliber cruise missiles;
• 6 launches of X-22 cruise missiles;
• 6 launches of Kinzhal missiles;
• 8 guided air missiles: 2 Kh-31P; 6 - X-59;
• 13 launches of C-300 missiles.

 

[Kathirz]

Summary of the latest missile attack:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633727866562027525

 

[Afif]

That kind of accurate counting seems little suspicious.

 

[Ryder]

 

[Gary]

There is only one part guilty for this war: Russia
Just a hypothetical scenario: what if France armed some Catalan separatists and they would make an armed coup and take over Catalunia and declare independence (after killing representatives of the Spanish state)?

Politics (especially modern politics) doesn't work like that. I do something bad =/= I'm guilty.

It all comes to, if my calculations are right, it will be either be right or a disaster. And in this case Putin's calculations = disaster, but what if Russian occupation of Ukraine is swift, I could argue that Putin has done the right thing.

Nurturing and/or supporting separatist group are not only a Russian thing, in fact so called EU member does the same dirty tricks with the Kurds or other outlawed quasi state. The Netherlands for example supported and nurtured Moluccan separatist or Sweden harboring Free Aceh Movement leaders.

Russia took over part of Donbass and arm its own army because it has the MEANS. So does the US arming the Peshmerga quasi army in Iraq because it has the means to do so.

So there's really no one is guilty here, some are just bad when playing the geopolitical chess, that's it

 

[Mailman]

Politics (especially modern politics) doesn't work like that. I do something bad =/= I'm guilty.

It all comes to, if my calculations are right, it will be either be right or a disaster. And in this case Putin's calculations = disaster, but what if Russian occupation of Ukraine is swift, I could argue that Putin has done the right thing.

Nurturing and/or supporting separatist group are not only a Russian thing, in fact so called EU member does the same dirty tricks with the Kurds or other outlawed quasi state. The Netherlands for example supported and nurtured Moluccan separatist or Sweden harboring Free Aceh Movement leaders.

Russia took over part of Donbass and arm its own army because it has the MEANS. So does the US arming the Peshmerga quasi army in Iraq because it has the means to do so.

So there's really no one is guilty here, some are just bad when playing the geopolitical chess, that's it

Come on, man! Seems like Asian opponents have their own undrstanding about morality and ethics. It is like the world has not learned a thing from WWII. Among other things, there has been an Nurenberg trials after the end of WWII with purposeto separate good from bad, but there have been attempts even before that. Please, let me to give to my honoured opponent the lesson about the concept of crime in broader sense.

There exists basic concepts like Crimes Against Humanity., but also genocide and war crimes. UN has webpage dedicated to such aspects, condemning crimes made by Europeans during colonisation etc. Please have a look: https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/crimes-against-humanity.shtml

Selected pieces from this document:
"It is not clear in which context the term “crimes against humanity” was first developed. Some scholars[1] point to the use of this term (or very similar terms) as early as late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, particularly in the context of slavery and the slave trade, and to describe atrocities associated with European colonialism in Africa and elsewhere such as, for example, the atrocities committed by Leopold II of Belgium in the Congo Free State. Other scholars[2] point to the declaration issued in 1915 by the Allied governments (France, Great Britain and Russia) condemning the mass killing of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, to be the origin of the use of the term as the label for a category of international crimes."

"Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court
Article 7
Crimes Against Humanity

1. For the purpose of this Statute, ‘crime against humanity’ means any of the following acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack:
   1. Murder;
   2. Extermination;
   3. Enslavement;
   4. Deportation or forcible transfer of population;
   5. Imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty in violation of fundamental rules of international law;
   6. Torture;
   7. Rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence of comparable gravity;
   8. Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court;
   9. Enforced disappearance of persons;
   10. The crime of apartheid;
   11. Other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.
2. For the purpose of paragraph 1:
   1. ‘Attack directed against any civilian population’ means a course of conduct involving the multiple commission of acts referred to in paragraph 1 against any civilian population, pursuant to or in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit such attack;"

 

[Gary]

Russia took over part of Donbass and arm its own army because it has the MEANS. So does the US arming the Peshmerga quasi army in Iraq because it has the means to do so.

This is not a meme, but its the only template I can think of.

Maybe Russia got the idea from someone else, I wonder...Russians after the collapse of the SU are not known for extraordinary innovation.

Come on, man! Seems like Asian opponents have their own undrstanding about morality and ethics. It is like the world has not learned a thing from WWII. Among other things, there has been an Nurenberg trials after the end of WWII with purposeto separate good from bad, but there have been attempts even before that. Please, let me to give to my honoured opponent the lesson about the concept of crime in broader sense.

There exists basic concepts like Crimes Against Humanity., but also genocide and war crimes. UN has webpage dedicated to such aspects, condemning crimes made by Europeans during colonisation etc. Please have a look: https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/crimes-against-humanity.shtml

Selected pieces from this document:
"It is not clear in which context the term “crimes against humanity” was first developed. Some scholars[1] point to the use of this term (or very similar terms) as early as late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, particularly in the context of slavery and the slave trade, and to describe atrocities associated with European colonialism in Africa and elsewhere such as, for example, the atrocities committed by Leopold II of Belgium in the Congo Free State. Other scholars[2] point to the declaration issued in 1915 by the Allied governments (France, Great Britain and Russia) condemning the mass killing of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, to be the origin of the use of the term as the label for a category of international crimes."

"Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court
Article 7
Crimes Against Humanity

1. For the purpose of this Statute, ‘crime against humanity’ means any of the following acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack:
   1. Murder;
   2. Extermination;
   3. Enslavement;
   4. Deportation or forcible transfer of population;
   5. Imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty in violation of fundamental rules of international law;
   6. Torture;
   7. Rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence of comparable gravity;
   8. Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court;
   9. Enforced disappearance of persons;
   10. The crime of apartheid;
   11. Other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.
2. For the purpose of paragraph 1:
   1. ‘Attack directed against any civilian population’ means a course of conduct involving the multiple commission of acts referred to in paragraph 1 against any civilian population, pursuant to or in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit such attack;"

All of this has been done since the very article is adopted by the "international community" and depending on the size and strength of a country they either get punished or walks away freely.

This is my opinion only but I think you're either too human, too weak or too soft for politics. I don't mean to be mean.

 

[Mehmed Ali]

What we learned from ww2? By 24 September 1941 all of Soviet Union would run out of food so Americans besides military equipment fed them. Otherwise the line of defence in December could had been Arhangelsk- Astrakhan , not Moscow. What we haven't learned but it is true , by time of Hitler coming to the power already 25 to 30 millions died unnaturally in USSR . 1921 5 million died and if not for Western help probably another 2 or 3 millions would die. %38 of the population of Khazastan was deliberately eliminated jus 1932 33. 1.5 cases of cannibalism. Pogroms and ethnic cleansing of different ethnic groups. Gas Chambers were working in Komunarka , slave labour was essential for the economy, the right of the pesants were something between serfdom and slavery. 1914 %35 of Russians population had a pension all of it was expropriation so more old people in St Petersburg died of hunger then from German siege , by the way only %7 of the population 1940 had a pension.
But hey it is not all too bad, the Tzar got what he deserved, he killed 1916 300k in Khazastan and if Stolyipin reform went through, it could had meant that all Muslims of Caucasus, Crimea and Central Asia would be expelled or dead. Because that reform meant , bringing Russian and other European peasants to those areas and giving them the land.
Moreover Tzar and his stooges planed the same for Balkan, Bosphorus , Eastern Anatolia, Persian Gulf and even there were the dreams about Suez .
Russia country, 400 years of the crime , lie and nothing else .
Oh I almost forgot, Tambov peasant uprising, put down by the gas shell and war with Poland 1920 . The real aim was to colonise Germany that Germans can work for mother Russia.

 

[Mailman]

All of this has been done since the very article is adopted by the "international community" and depending on the size and strength of a country they either get punished or walks away freely.

This is my opinion only but I think you're either too human, too weak or too soft for politics. I don't mean to be mean.

I do not take it for being mean and I have been into politics for a while now. Internal, domestic one and trying to expand my understanding into international level. In this sense I am learning, no offence taken.

In IT, there is a difference between AS IS and TO BE. AS IS takes the world as it is. TO BE is an effort to be taken and target specified. Without TO BE claritity and international effort there will be AS IS forever. From this point of view, I do not understand passive position "it is what it is".

Does anybody likes the current situation? No. Does anybody want the better situation? No. Should we do something about it? No. Will anyone do better in the future, No. Is this crime? No. Is making crimes OK? No. It is all about poor me not able to accept the world as it is...

I think it all boils down to the value of life. If there is 144 million or 300 million citizens, few million does not make a difference, right? Fair cost of getting some advantage. Indonesia can afford this. Russia kind of, if we are talking about minorities, small nations and criminals. Estonia does not have the luxury to loose million or two. This nation ceases to exist after that. So there is slightly more to loose than loss of 0,3% of population.