Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632746103098552325

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632729142528540674

 

[Relic]

We're getting more details about the absolute hell the Russians are facing around Bakhmut. Not only have they lost ten's of thousands In their attempt to take the city, Ukraine is slowly withdrawing from the city, while flanking the Russians in the north and fixing Wagner positions with high intensity artillery fire. Wagner will continue to push, because that's what they do, but they're dying by the hundreds each day as they continue to try to descend on the city and Ukraine pummel them from the flanks.

By time Ukraine fully withdraws from Bakhmut in the coming weeks and falls back to their defensive positions near Chasiv Yar, Wagner is going to be damn near combat ineffective and the Russians may very well have suffered 50,000 KIA / WIA, in order to take a small city, with little strategic relevance. Meanwhile, the defense line at Chasiv Yar is much easier to resupply from Kramatorsk and there will be another 50,000 Ukrainians (many of whom pulled back from Bakhmut) dug in, waiting for the Russian assault. My guess is that Russia throws another 50,000+ lives into the blender near Chasiv Yar and loses hundreds more armored vehicles that they can't replace... Only for Ukraine to eventually fall back near Kramatorsk, which will be an absolute nightmare for Russia to attempt to take.

Don't be surprised if another 100,000 more Russian are KIA between now and the summer... Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing about 40,000-50,000 of their own soldiers to go on a Western supplied offensive. My guess is that will occur in late spring (May timeline), after they've exhausted the Russians for another couple months.

 

[contricusc]

This special operation will continue as long as it is necessary...says the women who knows she'll never get drafted.

Old women are the most brave when it comes to war. I wonder why?

 

[Dmr]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633028029508116481

Rest in peace,brave man.

 

[bisbis]

The same cycle continues for a year. I think it could go on for years. The West is giving weapons to Ukraine, and the Russians are liquefying them. What's more, people are dying. From where? for the interests of western states. However, there are methods such as dialogue, peace, diplomacy.

But diplomacy is practiced when the dialogue is in the interests of the West.

 

[Relic]

The same cycle continues for a year. I think it could go on for years. The West is giving weapons to Ukraine, and the Russians are liquefying them. What's more, people are dying. From where? for the interests of western states. However, there are methods such as dialogue, peace, diplomacy.

But diplomacy is practiced when the dialogue is in the interests of the West.

I hate to inform you of this, but Russia is getting their teeth kicked in right now, by all available evidence.

1. The overwhelming majority of Russia's best troops are already KIA, WIA or MIA. They've had entire brigades of their very best forces made combat ineffective because of catastrophic casualties. Upwards of 50% of the VDV is completely gone. It can only be backfilled by mobilized men, with no training and combat experience. The 155th marine infantry brigade just got shattered at Vuhledar. They lost 136 armored vehicles and of the original 5000'ish men that comprised the brigade, they lost more than 2000 of them, including the majority of the combat troops. The "elite" 1st Guards Tank Army was so badly beaten down after the failed Kharkiv offensive and the subsequent retreat from the region, that they've had to refit back in Russia and are now being provided 50 year old T-62 tanks to backfill their loses due to a shortage of modern T-72 and T-90 tanks. Those are just a couple examples of some of Russia's best units that have been mauled.

2. Russia's most effective fighting force, Wagner, has been deeply depleted around Bakhmut. They're running out of recruited prisoners to throw into the meat grinder and are now being forced to engage with their best forces, north of Bakhmut. Ukraine has reinforced that area significantly, and is willing to pay a high price in casualties in order to further deplete Wagner's numbers and capabilities. Time in on Ukraine's side, not Wagner's. They are running out of ammunition, artillery shells and able bodies. When Bakhmut does eventually fall, and Ukraine pulls back to the defensive line at Chasiv Yar, Wagner is going to be deeply depleted and with it, so will Russia's ability to advance in that region.

3. Quality armor (tanks and IFVs) is a problem for Russia, at a time when Ukraine is just starting to receive some of the West's better stuff. The Leopard's, Bradley's, CV90's and Stryker's haven't even arrived in country yet, or have just started to trickle in. By mid April there will be a steady flow of Western equipment coming into Ukraine, while Russia continues to pull 50+ year old T-62 tanks and BTR-50's out of storage to backfill the catastrophic loses of their best tanks and IFVs. In the recent months we're also starting to see the uptick in lost Russian artillery as well. Russia still has plenty of it, but Ukraine is increasingly winning the counter battery artilery battle and as more and more, advanced Western systems show up in Ukraine, the Russian artillery losses are also starting to mount.

4. Ukraine is just NOW starting to get some of the "good stuff" from the West. GLSDB from Boieng and JDAM-ER are now allowing Ukraine to pack a bigger punch. HIMARS have made a huge difference in Ukraine's ability to target Russian logistics and command centers. But they've be using relatively small warheads in GMLRS. JDAMs can be attached to 2000lb glide bombs, the likes of which the USA used to devastate enemy strongholds in Afghanistan. It won't take long before Ukraine starts using "big boy" bombs to smash Russian concentrations of troops. We're now seeing the commited of larger Kamikaze drones as well, similar to the Lancet drones Russia is using. Wait until their advancing artillery starts coming under mass drone strikes and their ability to use artillery to support their advancing mechanized forces starts dwindling. We'll start to see the daily casualty totals skyrocket beyond there already high levels.

5. Russia's inventory of cruise missiles is dwindling quickly, at the same time as modern Western air defense systems increasingly come online in Ukraine. Russia has used a majority of its best, modern cruise missiles, which it uses for strategic strikes, and Ukraine is just now starting to receive Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS and SAMP/T missile defense systems to replace their outdated S300 systems. Therefore, as Russia's missile stockpile dwindles, Ukraine's ability to intercept them grows exponentially.

Russia is not winning this war right now, no matter how hard you try to convince us otherwise. Ukraine is training ten's of thousands of troops in Europe and they're receiving much better training and being outfitted with much better equipment than mobilized Russian soldiers that are LITERALLY being asked to provide their own gear through purchase by their families. The quality of the forces that Ukraine can reinforce and backfill their units with is much greater than that of Russia, despite the Russian numbers advantage. The technology edge is also substantially on the side of the Ukrainians and it's growing increasingly.

As we move towards the rainy season and the mud becomes a major factor again, Russia's ability to press on the offensive will continue to be an increasing issue. They are terrified to use their Air Force deep inside of Ukraine for fear of anti-air systems and they still haven't captured a major Ukrainian city of note since Mariupol, which essentially sits on the Russian border, months ago. Russia has delusions of taking Bakhmut, breaking through the defensive line at Chasiv Yar and taking the regional capitol at Kramatorsk. They've been trying to take tiny little Bakmut for 8+ months and have endured tens of thousands of casualties in the attempt to take the city. What do you think is going to happen when a fully reinforced Ukrainian defense at Kramatorsk digs in? What will that cost the Russian Army, another 100,000 combat troops and 3000-5000 armored vehicles? Eventually the cupboards become bare, especially as Ukraine wreaks havoc on Russian supply lines that are increasingly incompetent, every mile they advance from the Russian border.

The West ABSOLUTELY has an agenda. Anybody discounting that is delusional. But you are WAY off base if you think Russia is performing well in this war to this point. Remember that in the last 6 months they've lost substantially more ground in their retreats from the Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson regions, than they've gained throwing tens of thousands of fighting men to their deaths in their attempts to take Soledar and Bakhmut... Meanwhile, 40,000+ more Ukrainians are digging in and waiting for them in the highlands along the defensive line south of Chasiv Yar.

Good luck Russia... May ten's of thousands more women, children and parents in your country never see their sons, husbands, boyfriends, and children again. One can only hope they die cold, scared and alone, in an empty field, litered with artillery and mortar craters in Ukraine.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I hate to inform you of this, but Russia is getting their teeth kicked in right now, by all available evidence.

1. The overwhelming majority of Russia's best troops are already KIA, WIA or MIA. They've had entire brigades of their very best forces made combat ineffective because of catastrophic casualties. Upwards of 50% of the VDV is completely gone. It can only be backfilled by mobilized men, with no training and combat experience. The 155th marine infantry brigade just got shattered at Vuhledar. They lost 136 armored vehicles and of the original 5000'ish men that comprised the brigade, they lost more than 2000 of them, including the majority of the combat troops. The "elite" 1st Guards Tank Army was so badly beaten down after the failed Kharkiv offensive and the subsequent retreat from the region, that they've had to refit back in Russia and are now being provided 50 year old T-62 tanks to backfill their loses due to a shortage of modern T-72 and T-90 tanks. Those are just a couple examples of some of Russia's best units that have been mauled.

2. Russia's most effective fighting force, Wagner, has been deeply depleted around Bakhmut. They're running out of recruited prisoners to throw into the meat grinder and are now being forced to engage with their best forces, north of Bakhmut. Ukraine has reinforced that area significantly, and is willing to pay a high price in casualties in order to further deplete Wagner's numbers and capabilities. Time in on Ukraine's side, not Wagner's. They are running out of ammunition, artillery shells and able bodies. When Bakhmut does eventually fall, and Ukraine pulls back to the defensive line at Chasiv Yar, Wagner is going to be deeply depleted and with it, so will Russia's ability to advance in that region.

3. Quality armor (tanks and IFVs) is a problem for Russia, at a time when Ukraine is just starting to receive some of the West's better stuff. The Leopard's, Bradley's, CV90's and Stryker's haven't even arrived in country yet, or have just started to trickle in. By mid April there will be a steady flow of Western equipment coming into Ukraine, while Russia continues to pull 50+ year old T-62 tanks and BTR-50's out of storage to backfill the catastrophic loses of their best tanks and IFVs. In the recent months we're also starting to see the uptick in lost Russian artillery as well. Russia still has plenty of it, but Ukraine is increasingly winning the counter battery artilery battle and as more and more, advanced Western systems show up in Ukraine, the Russian artillery losses are also starting to mount.

4. Ukraine is just NOW starting to get some of the "good stuff" from the West. GLSDB from Boieng and JDAM-ER are now allowing Ukraine to pack a bigger punch. HIMARS have made a huge difference in Ukraine's ability to target Russian logistics and command centers. But they've be using relatively small warheads in GMLRS. JDAMs can be attached to 2000lb glide bombs, the likes of which the USA used to devastate enemy strongholds in Afghanistan. It won't take long before Ukraine starts using "big boy" bombs to smash Russian concentrations of troops. We're now seeing the commited of larger Kamikaze drones as well, similar to the Lancet drones Russia is using. Wait until their advancing artillery starts coming under mass drone strikes and their ability to use artillery to support their advancing mechanized forces starts dwindling. We'll start to see the daily casualty totals skyrocket beyond there already high levels.

5. Russia's inventory of cruise missiles is dwindling quickly, at the same time as modern Western air defense systems increasingly come online in Ukraine. Russia has used a majority of its best, modern cruise missiles, which it uses for strategic strikes, and Ukraine is just now starting to receive Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS and SAMP/T missile defense systems to replace their outdated S300 systems. Therefore, as Russia's missile stockpile dwindles, Ukraine's ability to intercept them grows exponentially.

Russia is not winning this war right now, no matter how hard you try to convince us otherwise. Ukraine is training ten's of thousands of troops in Europe and they're receiving much better training and being outfitted with much better equipment than mobilized Russian soldiers that are LITERALLY being asked to provide their own gear through purchase by their families. The quality of the forces that Ukraine can reinforce and backfill their units with is much greater than that of Russia, despite the Russian numbers advantage. The technology edge is also substantially on the side of the Ukrainians and it's growing increasingly.

As we move towards the rainy season and the mud becomes a major factor again, Russia's ability to press on the offensive will continue to be an increasing issue. They are terrified to use their Air Force deep inside of Ukraine for fear of anti-air systems and they still haven't captured a major Ukrainian city of note since Mariupol, which essentially sits on the Russian border, months ago. Russia has delusions of taking Bakhmut, breaking through the defensive line at Chasiv Yar and taking the regional capitol at Kramatorsk. They've been trying to take tiny little Bakmut for 8+ months and have endured tens of thousands of casualties in the attempt to take the city. What do you think is going to happen when a fully reinforced Ukrainian defense at Kramatorsk digs in? What will that cost the Russian Army, another 100,000 combat troops and 3000-5000 armored vehicles? Eventually the cupboards become bare, especially as Ukraine wreaks havoc on Russian supply lines that are increasingly incompetent, every mile they advance from the Russian border.

The West ABSOLUTELY has an agenda. Anybody discounting that is delusional. But you are WAY off base if you think Russia is performing well in this war to this point. Remember that in the last 6 months they've lost substantially more ground in their retreats from the Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson regions, than they've gained throwing tens of thousands of fighting men to their deaths in their attempts to take Soledar and Bakhmut... Meanwhile, 40,000+ more Ukrainians are digging in and waiting for them in the highlands along the defensive line south of Chasiv Yar.

Good luck Russia... May ten's of thousands more women, children and parents in your country never see their sons, husbands, boyfriends, and children again. One can only hope they die cold, scared and alone, in an empty field, litered with artillery and mortar craters in Ukraine.

Yeah pretty much, their biggest problem is the inverse relationship concerning war materials. As the war goes on Ukraine receives better equipment while Russia has to resort to their older stocks. You have to wonder how long Russia can maintain this, the collective suppliers of Ukraine can sustain this dynamic for many years to come if required, but i don't see Russia able to. The only thing they can hope for is that China decides to go all in and supply Russia but i don't see that happening either and even if it does happen, it basically means the war gets to drag out for many more years to come which doesnt help Russia either.

 

[GoatsMilk]

The guys talking about Slovakia but in reality the principle is for everyone bordering or near the Russian border.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/11ksxzm
Its crazy that simple truths can be heckled. He's saying they want the war as far from their border as possible and the only way to do that is support Ukraine.

 

[Ryder]

In Vuledar an elite Russian brigade got wiped out while 100s of tanks and ifvs destroyed.

That attack on vuledar was a stepping stone to the much talked offensive but got destroyed.

 

[Marlii]

The same cycle continues for a year. I think it could go on for years. The West is giving weapons to Ukraine, and the Russians are liquefying them. What's more, people are dying. From where? for the interests of western states. However, there are methods such as dialogue, peace, diplomacy.

But diplomacy is practiced when the dialogue is in the interests of the West.

How much has the Russians liquified?some m777s and other artillery pieces and not even a single piece of himars and then inturn getting rekt by loosing more than 1800 tanks

 

[contricusc]

The same cycle continues for a year. I think it could go on for years. The West is giving weapons to Ukraine, and the Russians are liquefying them. What's more, people are dying. From where? for the interests of western states. However, there are methods such as dialogue, peace, diplomacy.

But diplomacy is practiced when the dialogue is in the interests of the West.

Yes, please remind the Russians about those methods such as dialogue, peace and diplomacy, the next time they start to invade one of their neighbors.

 

[Relic]

How much has the Russians liquified?some m777s and other artillery pieces and not even a single piece of himars and then inturn getting rekt by loosing more than 1800 tanks

Make no mistake, Ukraine is losing a lot as well, but not nearly as much as Russia. The Russians are throwing everything they have into the grinder, while Ukraine practices defense in depth, from deeply established, easily re-suppliable positions. Ukraine is also getting a lot of help from partisans in occupied areas, reporting Russian movements to the Ukrainian intelligence community. The West is also using an array of satellites and conventional intelligence assets to help Ukraine wreak havoc on Russian supply lines.

 

[Dmr]

How much has the Russians liquified?some m777s and other artillery pieces and not even a single piece of himars and then inturn getting rekt by loosing more than 1800 tanks

Yes, please remind the Russians about those methods such as dialogue, peace and diplomacy, the next time they start to invade one of their neighbors.

It's obvious that you two are new here.Don't take his posts seriously he is repeating the same thing for months,which can be summed up as "It's Ukraine's fault they don't want to be occupied and it's west's fault that they armed Ukrainians,if they were empty handed there would be peace.Ukrainians just need to surrender and disappear and there will be peace,rainbows and unicorns all over the world."

 

[Kathirz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633078619328204800

 

[Era_shield]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633078619328204800

It would be ironic if Bakhmut became Russia's own Kursk Salient.

 

[Afif]

It would be ironic if Bakhmut became Russia's own Kursk Salient.

I think Ukraine probably had to withdraw from Bakhmut, it seems there are desperation on both side.
Let's see who can hold out till the end.

 

[Gary]

I think Ukraine probably had to withdraw from Bakhmut, it seems there are desperation on both side.
Let's see who can hold out till the end.

They tried to counter attack a few days ago but ended in failure. without any follow up attack towards Russian flank, Russia will just creep (albeit slowly) closer to the city center, neighborhood by neighborhood. House by house, street by street.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632676484396531719

 

[Fuzuli NL]

No está tan equivocado, o al menos en mi opinión. en esta guerra hay 4 culpables: el estado ucraniano; el estado ruso; Estados Unidos y la OTAN
la culpa del estado ucraniano es haber estado bombardeando su propio territorio durante 8 años y haber estado financiando a grupos mercenarios como el batallon azov y compañia para aniquilar a los separatistas del donbass la culpa de rusia es haber invadido territorio ajeno (aunque lo
digan con la excusa de salvar o ayudar a los separatistas de Donbass)
la culpa de EEUU estaría muy relacionada con la OTAN; ya que ha estado presionando a esta alianza occidental para poner bases militares en territorio ucraniano, lo que cualquier país ve como una amenaza (básicamente es que un país que es tu enemigo, está colocando su ejército muy cerca de ti y con posibilidad de atacar a tu territorio cuando quieras)
La culpa de la OTAN es básicamente dar armas a Ucrania y aplicar un doble rasero
Y yo pondría como extra a la Unión Europea, que está jodiendo a toda Europa con las sanciones que perjudican más a Europa que a Rusia.

No hablo Espanol.
Translato por favor!

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633504175303667712