Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Gary

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I quite agree with Shirvan especially in the last half of the video. Manpower, is Russia's largest advantage in this war.

Especially now we know that this war be a long war, possibly spanning decades even after Russia is expelled from all land it occupied. Attrition will be their largest weapons of war, now that Russia has launched its military version of "social credit" system targeting minorities, dissidents and criminals to be thrown into the frontlines.

I'm also not shocked at all when I find that there's a jump from from 6% to 48% of American Republicans thinking that they're paying too much for the war in Ukraine and considered like quitting. People who have watched the last war in the Viet Nam and the Middle East knows to well how the West is not in the game of endurance.

Viet Cong and the Taliban winning wars spanning decades after getting pummelled non stop should be a warning to countries that depended its continued fighting from the good will of donations. Long war is not in your interest.

If anything a hybrid low-high intensity conflict could be used by Russia the way the Taliban and Viet Cong scrape U.S will to go to war through the years. But unlike the Taliban and Viet Cong. Russia's war in Ukraine has the backing of advanced industrial country and possibly a safe heaven more safe than Pakistan will ever be to the Taliban or North Viet Nam will be to the Viet Cong.

Sometimes its endurance...not brilliance that win wars.

saigon.jpeg

2022-08-15T102328Z_197124416_RC2YWV95IODW_RTRMADP_3_AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT-ANNIVERSARY.jpg


If anything, it will not be Mach 10 Zircon or hard banging Sarmat that people has to be worry at. Its the graph that you should be staring at.


432-1.gif

770-1.gif

QGOIHSQJCNAXPO2AIDMVBHMH74.png



All 3 ended in U.S retreat and even acknowledgement of their sworn enemies (Communist Vietnam and Islamist Taliban)

Let's see how this graph will develop.

20230311_WOT236.png
 

Bogeyman 

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If anything, it will not be Mach 10 Zircon or hard banging Sarmat that people has to be worry at. Its the graph that you should be staring at.


432-1.gif

770-1.gif

QGOIHSQJCNAXPO2AIDMVBHMH74.png



All 3 ended in U.S retreat and even acknowledgement of their sworn enemies (Communist Vietnam and Islamist Taliban)

Let's see how this graph will develop.

20230311_WOT236.png
Can you give me a link to the graphics you posted?
I hope you can help me with my research on the subject.
 

Gary

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Can you give me a link to the graphics you posted?
I hope you can help me with my research on the subject.
 

Ryder

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They can achieve more and earn more in Africa.

Honestly reading reports of Turkish drones hitting wagner scum in Libya made my day.

Too bad cowardly government agreed to the Russians to allow wagner to withdraw to Sirte and Al Jufra which allowed them to dig in.

Wagner Group has already suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine compared to its African campaigns.

Every time wagner faces a state like Turkiye, Usa and Ukraine they usually get themselves blown apart.

Its not worth it when they could go and loot diamonds.
 

Gary

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They can achieve more and earn more in Africa.

Honestly reading reports of Turkish drones hitting wagner scum in Libya made my day.

Too bad cowardly government agreed to the Russians to allow wagner to withdraw to Sirte and Al Jufra which allowed them to dig in.

Wagner Group has already suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine compared to its African campaigns.

Every time wagner faces a state like Turkiye, Usa and Ukraine they usually get themselves blown apart.

Its not worth it when they could go and loot diamonds.
One of the main attraction of Wagner as a fighting force is higher pay for specialist. Hence Wagner is full of Russian military specialist willing to serve under Prigozhin's banner for better pay. The problem is the fighting in Ukraine has killed a good number of their specialists and trained personel, now Wagner is filled with people with no military background whatsoever/.

Wagner failed its CT ops in Mozambique while at its prime, I'm still wondering what will be future Wagner performance in Africa filled with convicts which is no more trained than the local Qaeda, ISIS franchise fighting in Mali and Mozambique.
 

Afif

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Shoigu and Sergey Lavrovs sex tape will be coming soon 🤣🤣🤣
Bro, shut up! I don't wanna imagine those two old dudes....shit! The image is in my head...
 

Ryder

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One of the main attraction of Wagner as a fighting force is higher pay for specialist. Hence Wagner is full of Russian military specialist willing to serve under Prigozhin's banner for better pay. The problem is the fighting in Ukraine has killed a good number of their specialists and trained personel, now Wagner is filled with people with no military background whatsoever/.

Wagner failed its CT ops in Mozambique while at its prime, I'm still wondering what will be future Wagner performance in Africa filled with convicts which is no more trained than the local Qaeda, ISIS franchise fighting in Mali and Mozambique.

When it comes to fighting terrorism.

Wagner are just useless really. Numerous times they got their asses handed to them by Isis or Al Nusra.

I dont think those convicts will fare any better in the African landscape. African landscape will be full of rebels, groups and wild animals. They will be ambushed left and right.

If they go around looting and doing unwarranted killings that will just piss the locals off even more.

Prigozin wasted a lot of his men in the Ukrainian debacle. You can tell his pissed off with his own incompetent state.
 

Gary

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anyone who has seen Iran and North Korean defense industry survive the sanctions on material would have known that last year ban/ boycott on goods towards Russia would have the very same effect...null.

Iran flew its F-14 with smuggled U.S parts up until 2007. Has U.S chips in its ballistic missile even though there's officially no way of them to have one.

For one, isolation creates a whole new economy based on trafficking parts. One segment of the economy becomes a loser (the official importers) while the other segment flourishes ( the traffickers).

The West really are underestimating their enemy's capability again and again by declaring that Russia will capitulate after there's no longer trade between them.
 

contricusc

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I'm also not shocked at all when I find that there's a jump from from 6% to 48% of American Republicans thinking that they're paying too much for the war in Ukraine and considered like quitting. People who have watched the last war in the Viet Nam and the Middle East knows to well how the West is not in the game of endurance.

In both Viet Nam and Middle East, the US had boots on the ground. This means dead American soldiers, coffins flying back home. This is something the population doesn’t like and can turn against pretty quick. In Ukraine, there are no American troops doing the fighting, so the main problem from a US point of view is resolved.

Viet Cong and the Taliban winning wars spanning decades after getting pummelled non stop should be a warning to countries that depended its continued fighting from the good will of donations. Long war is not in your interest.

In both cases, the local allies of the US were not very interested in fighting. The American troops had to do the fighting themselves, so it is logical for the public back home to get tired of this. In Ukraine, the situation is totally different. The Ukrainians are motivated to fight, because they defend their land from an invsion.

If anything a hybrid low-high intensity conflict could be used by Russia the way the Taliban and Viet Cong scrape U.S will to go to war through the years. But unlike the Taliban and Viet Cong. Russia's war in Ukraine has the backing of advanced industrial country and possibly a safe heaven more safe than Pakistan will ever be to the Taliban or North Viet Nam will be to the Viet Cong.

The problem of Russia in this case is that it’s fighting against a more motivated enemy. In this case, Ukrainians are the Taliban, those willing to fight for as long as it takes to retake their land. Russians are fighting a meaningless invasion war, while Ukrainians defend their country. The motivation is totally different for the two sides.

While the Russian propaganda tries to portray this war as being between Russia and the West, the reality is that this is a war between Russia and Ukraine. The West is only helping Ukraine with money, weapons, ammunition and intelligence.

For the US, the cost of this war is tiny. If the Russian strategy is to outlast the US support for Ukraine, they are making just another big mistake. For the US economy, the cost of this war is like a drop in a bucket.
 

Kathirz

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The West really are underestimating their enemy's capability again and again by declaring that Russia will capitulate after there's no longer trade between them.
May you please provide the source about those claims? That Russia will capitulate after there's no longer trade between them? Thanks.
 

Gary

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In both Viet Nam and Middle East, the US had boots on the ground. This means dead American soldiers, coffins flying back home. This is something the population doesn’t like and can turn against pretty quick. In Ukraine, there are no American troops doing the fighting, so the main problem from a US point of view is resolved.
It doesn't have to be a 1:1 comparison. Yes, there's no American dead yet in Ukraine but that's not even remotely the point. If this war grind on, the Americans (either they got directly affected or not) will start questioning their entire involvement in the war.

You see, in 2001 in Afghanistan, no one in the U.S will ever imagine that in 20 years time they have to flee the country humiliated...at the time the general wisdom is, we got it under control, we just put a loyalist government in Afghanistan and they're going to fight there instead of us, what could possibly go wrong ? The same naiveness shown today for what appears to be a young war.

It depends on the Russian willingness to extend the war and for how long, wait long enough and the advantage will be Russia's. In 10,20, 30 years time the world is going to change a lot. No one will guarantee that every U.S administration will be the likes of Biden and no one could absolutely guarantee that domestic U.S opinion will not change the political outlook of the states. Wait long enough and the people in the States consciously or provoked will start asking "why are we spending so much in Ukraine ?, instead of healthcare (maybe)?" and then this will roll and roll until it turns into a very big political snowball that the U.S government could no longer dodge.

The thing is for Russia, whatever the scenario is, the West is never in the game of Endurance, they got tired, bored, lose interests and so on.


In both cases, the local allies of the US were not very interested in fighting. The American troops had to do the fighting themselves, so it is logical for the public back home to get tired of this. In Ukraine, the situation is totally different. The Ukrainians are motivated to fight, because they defend their land from an invsion.

U.S losses is only piecemeal in number, but again persist long enough (add that to domestic problems) and people will start looking for answer. People will start dumb question like, why are we spending so much abroad, and not build schools instead blah blah blah...and in return the Politicians (who needed their vote) will naturally start to cease support gradually.

Time and time again, Its not the battlefield victory that U.S/West antagonist should be looking at, its the defeat at home that they should go for. Its not going to be a 1:1 comparison yes, but the underlying problem is the same. No one understands this better than Vo Nguyen Giap of Viet Nam or Mullah Omar of Afghan Taliban. Putin himself a student of history, should go check this out.


It is the war in the middle east started by an unprovoked attack on U.S soil that gave rise to populist like Trump in the first place, what are the chance that people got tired their tax money is used for a war that has nothing to do with an actual attack on U.S soil ? Maybe another fertile ground for another Trump style populist ?

The problem of Russia in this case is that it’s fighting against a more motivated enemy. In this case, Ukrainians are the Taliban, those willing to fight for as long as it takes to retake their land. Russians are fighting a meaningless invasion war, while Ukrainians defend their country. The motivation is totally different for the two sides.
Motivated yes, but the numbers will not be their advantage...in Afghanistan and Viet Nam the two underdogs understand their weakness and goes underground, Ukraine on the other hand is going head on knee to knee which will gradually scrape their overall power.

Motivation on Ukraine's side would only be effective with continuing support by their Western allies, lose that support and there's no point for Igor to be motivated because there's nothing left to fight Russia with.

You can boast motivation aloud, but in the face of bad prospects, people will start looking elsewhere, in Syria the refugee seeker started gradually from a very popular and energetic uprising.

In the end, the fighting men in Ukraine does have the prospect of a long war with Russia or leave the country and find safe place for him and his family to stay. And the family part is why many fighting men in Syria left their country. In the Battlefield they're just as motivated, but enter the family safety equation and the whole motivation started to collapse..and I bet people in Ukraine are no different.

The war is like a year long and Bali is getting flooded by men of fighting age from Ukraine (and Russia)


so much so we are planning to stop issuing Visa

While the Russian propaganda tries to portray this war as being between Russia and the West, the reality is that this is a war between Russia and Ukraine. The West is only helping Ukraine with money, weapons, ammunition and intelligence.
Yes, that's why they only likely have to wait long enough until that very support scraped thin enough over time. They have the industry, and more importantly population to sustain this. 142 million vs 40 million its very clear who will run out of men early. Especially when the casualty ratio on both side are humongous.

Just in case anyone forget, Ukraine is 2nd rate in importance to other more pressing issues (like Taiwan).

But yes I acknowledge in the end it is yet to be seen how the Russian siloviki enforce its will on keeping society bend under its whim to continuously go to war...but if they do (and they can) and they wait patiently long enough its a natural advantage for them.


For the US, the cost of this war is tiny. If the Russian strategy is to outlast the US support for Ukraine, they are making just another big mistake. For the US economy, the cost of this war is like a drop in a bucket.

The war in Afghanistan and Viet Nam is also tiny both from monetary and manpower and loss perspective, but their gradual tiredness is always there and it repeats again and again, either in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq and later on probably Ukraine.
 

Afif

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Well, during our war of independence USSR turned out to be our great friend.

So, there are circumstances for everything.
 

dBSPL

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Well, during our war of independence USSR turned out to be our great friend.

So, there are circumstances for everything.
And after 2 decades they were in a position to claim the straits and northeastern Anatolia and pushed TR into the US's lap.

Their help to the formation of the Republics first heavy industry steps is undeniable, but on the other hand, the 'great aid' in the war of independence is largely composed of aid from different sources, most of which the communist party both usurped and advertised. The Russians calculated that by giving alms, the Turkish state could become a client state. However, when they realized this miscalculation, they did not hesitate to show their teeth.

The above statement could be the words of an idiot politician of Armenian descent. And it may have even provoked a reaction in the Russian public opinion. But it should also remind us of a vein in Russian dynamics that never dies.
 

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