Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[UkroTurk]

"Wagner Group" received weapons from Belarus, while China and Turkey refusing - FT

China snubbed Wagner arms request, says US intelligence leak

Classified document suggests Beijing did not respond to Russian paramilitary group’s request for weapons in early 2023

www.ft.com

In addition, the document claims that Prigozhin's structures tried to purchase weapons from Turkey. In particular, they were interested in drones, electronic warfare systems, counter-battery systems and howitzer artillery. It is known that at least for howitzers, counter-battery systems and means of combating drones, the Wagnerites were refused.

Another report says that the president of the African country of Mali allegedly confirmed that his country could buy weapons from Turkey for the Wagner units operating there.

 

[UkroTurk]

Zelensky told what steps Ukraine expects from NATO at the summit in Vilnius

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine wants to approve security guarantees at the July summit of heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries before joining the Alliance, but alternatives to NATO membership are not being considered.

Ukraine's future is NATO membership, all allies agree on this - Stoltenberg

NATO commented on the possibility of Ukraine joining the Alliance / photo REUTERS

He added that Ukraine should "take the upper hand" in the war with Russia and preserve state independence and sovereignty.

The Kremlin reacted to the visit of NATO Secretary General to Ukraine

The Russian Federation commented on the visit of the NATO Secretary General to Kyiv / photo REUTERS

Moscow said that they had no assessment of the prospects for Ukraine's entry into the Alliance.

 

[Relic]

Zelensky told what steps Ukraine expects from NATO at the summit in Vilnius

View attachment 56415
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine wants to approve security guarantees at the July summit of heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries before joining the Alliance, but alternatives to NATO membership are not being considered.

Ukraine's future is NATO membership, all allies agree on this - Stoltenberg

View attachment 56416

NATO commented on the possibility of Ukraine joining the Alliance / photo REUTERS

He added that Ukraine should "take the upper hand" in the war with Russia and preserve state independence and sovereignty.

The Kremlin reacted to the visit of NATO Secretary General to Ukraine

View attachment 56417

The Russian Federation commented on the visit of the NATO Secretary General to Kyiv / photo REUTERS

Moscow said that they had no assessment of the prospects for Ukraine's entry into the Alliance.

Of course the next step for Ukraine is NATO membership, because when they come out of this conflict they'll have arguably the most battle hardened / tested military in the world, and they'll be the only NATO member since WWII to have been involved in a full scale, mobilized war, with a military power the likes of Russia.

Furthermore, the influx of Western equipment into Ukraine might see them leave this conflict as the 4th or 5th most powerful military in NATO, sitting right on Russia's doorstep. Don't just think about what they've had delivered so far, consider what they've purchased and what has been purchased for them, expected to be delivered in 2024 and beyond. It won't stop any time soon, either. Expect another $100 Billion to be spent on their military in 2023 alone. That will be a combination of foreign purchases and donations, as well as Ukraine's own purchases using their own money and money received through foreign loans and grants.

 

[GoatsMilk]

"Wagner Group" received weapons from Belarus, while China and Turkey refusing - FT

China snubbed Wagner arms request, says US intelligence leak

Classified document suggests Beijing did not respond to Russian paramilitary group’s request for weapons in early 2023

www.ft.com

In addition, the document claims that Prigozhin's structures tried to purchase weapons from Turkey. In particular, they were interested in drones, electronic warfare systems, counter-battery systems and howitzer artillery. It is known that at least for howitzers, counter-battery systems and means of combating drones, the Wagnerites were refused.

Another report says that the president of the African country of Mali allegedly confirmed that his country could buy weapons from Turkey for the Wagner units operating there.

In general we know the games the western media plays and the way it cultivates perceptions. So Turkiye despite all her good work for Ukraine and being one of the few nations that was with Ukraine before the war started, the media wants to cultivate that negative portrayal of the sleazy double dealing Turks. When in reality double dealing is hallmark of the anglo-american world and has been for hundreds of years. The British were notorious for signing secret agreements with all sides and using those agreements to screw all sides. In general our history is fairly straight edged, little to no double dealings or backing on agreements.

The same americans allied with Russia in Syria against Turkiye, meanwhile the french also allied with Russia in Libya against Turkiye. Still to this day i've not seen any western media point this out. Thats intentional and thats clear agenda being conducted against Turkiye.

Anyway, any entities that work to ship Turkish made arms to Russia must be swiftly dealt with. Supporting Russia militarily against Ukraine is suicide.

 

[Era_shield]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648767911408853026

anyone know if this is true?

UA Weapons Tracker seems to be convinced, so it seems the camo/other markings in the picture are Ukrainian.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648774320812969984

 

[Ryder]

Great trench warfare footage with English subtitles:

Its WW1 all over again. Fcking hell!!

This is hell on earth.

 

[MaciekRS]

Denmark and The Netherlands have jointly purchased 14 additional Leopard 2A4 MBTs for Ukraine . The tanks will come from German industry, after stored tanks are refurbished for delivery. The delivery timeline expected is early 2024.

It is expected that German industry has somewhere between 30-50 refurbishable Leopard 2 tanks in storage, waiting for purchasers. This purchase came from that batch.

Also of note, both Spain and Switzerland have significant quantities of stored Leopard 2 tanks that German industry would like to buy back and refurbish for re-sale Some of those tanks will, inevitably, be bought and sent to Ukraine, while others will be bought to backfill Western inventories.

Redirect Notice

Next year Ukraine could get more Leo A4 from Poland.
Late May, early June we will start getting M1A1 from US and we should have all 116 late this year or early 2024.
Also we will have 28 K2 tanks in 2023 with 56 more to be delivered in 2024.
That is over 150 tanks and it should free rest of the PT91 or some of the Leopards to deliver to Ukraine

 

[Relic]

Next year Ukraine could get more Leo A4 from Poland.
Late May, early June we will start getting M1A1 from US and we should have all 116 late this year or early 2024.
Also we will have 28 K2 tanks in 2023 with 56 more to be delivered in 2024.
That is over 150 tanks and it should free rest of the PT91 or some of the Leopards to deliver to Ukraine

As Poland has M1A2's and K2's arrive, they'll divest their PT-91's and Leopard 2's entirely. The former prior to the latter, but all of them inevitably. Their T-72's are basically all gone at this point.

Late 2023 / early 2024 deliveries of Leopard 2's will like look something like the following....

14-20 2A4 from Poland
14-20 2A4 from Germany
14 2A4 from Netherlands and Denmark
10-14 2A4 from Spain
20-30 2A4 from German industry

I don't expect further 2A5's, 2A6's or 2A7's to be provided. Rather new models will start arriving in the inventories of European purchasers.

Ultimately, I expect roughly 200 Leopard 1A5s to arrive in Ukraine, from a coalition of purchasers. I also think you'll see 28 total Challenger 2's from Britain arrive by 2024, and a second batch of an additional 31 M1A1's (62 total) from the United States , with a 2024 delivery date should also happen.

As for Soviet style tanks. Poland will probably send another 30'ish PT-91's (as their new kit arrives) and, eventually, 50-100 T-72's and T-80's will be purchased from 3rd parties and sent to Ukraine at an undisclosed time frame.

At this point, I expect that to be roughly the total tank support Ukraine can expect to get. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500 more tanks than have already been announced. Most by 2024.

Even more interesting to me are the IFVs. I'll be curious to see how quickly the 200 Rosomak's purchased from Poland will arrive in Ukraine. I'll be interested to see if USA announces another 100'ish Bradley M2 ODS. I'll be interested to see if Germany announced more Marder IFVs as their new ones come on line. Similarly, as Britain's new IFV's arrive, will they be willing to part with their older Warriors. Sweden has promised 50 CV-90's. Can they afford to send any more and can other other countries that use them contribute some as well? Will a wildcard such as Canada step up and send some of their LAV 6.0's? Will France send a further batch of their AMX-10RC's?

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649150430897664059

 

[Nykyus]

An elite scout, Vladislav Ammosov, transferred from Sakha to the service of Ukraine. He served in the Main Intelligence Directorate of Russia. He says that he trained on the destruction of US coal-fired power plants, US vulnerabilities, fought in the Second Chechen War.

In an interview, he says that if Kyiv was not taken in 3 days, then Russia, having apologized, would have left Ukraine. He says he didn't think Russia was that crazy.
He says he can assemble an atomic bomb, dive underwater, plant mines under power lines. In the GRU, he was engaged in mathematical modeling of the state economy. I studied the USA in order to understand how best to destroy it. Each of us had a sector, for example, I had a coal industry, coal, thermal power plants. My task was to find their (American) vulnerable points and, as cheaply as possible, quickly disable them for a long time.
Now recruiting the Siberian Battalion to fight Russia. He says that the war will not end soon, 5-10 years. They will continue the war indefinitely.

 

[Ryder]

A Russian Su34 bombed Belgorod their own city lmaoooo

Such incompetent idiots!!

 

[UkroTurk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/

 

[Kathirz]

A Russian Su34 bombed Belgorod their own city lmaoooo

Such incompetent idiots!!

They have an airfield behind the city, around north-east and the SU-34 meant to drop the bomb in Kharkiv (maybe a glide bomb?)
The crater is not small and the car on the roof took ballistic trajectory.

Edit: Video with the impact of the bomb and later explosion:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649318357538045953

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648627674380742658

 

[Gary]

Regardless of the incident, we will likely see more UMPK glide bombs going into the future. And that will be a big problem.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649344844874108928

 

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1647949751990599687

 

[Ryder]

Wagners are making isis and pkk look like amateurs.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Wagners are making isis and pkk look like amateurs.

Isis looked like something you could have only seen in a hollywood movie. The way those jihadi nuts were behaving reminded me of the catholic inquisitions that i learned about in school.

I remember watching one video where the isis terrorists are hacking heads off and as their doing it some kid is coming round collecting the heads and placing them in his duffle bag to take them away with him.

You got wonder about those sorts of kids and what kinds of radical terrorism they will engage in going forward. A child collecting heads in a duffle bag will probably turn into a mass killer.

You also got to to worry about how many of these types fled to Turkiye and live in Turkiye. What troubles they will bring to the country moving forward.

As terrible as Wagner is i still think they got some way to catch up with Isis.

 

[Kathirz]

It's Ramstein day....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649349258426867712

 

[Relic]

It's Ramstein day....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649349258426867712

What I'm looking toncone out of today l (over thr next week or so).

1. Announcement for the training + delivery timeline of Leopard 1A5 tanks and how many will reach Ukraine by summer.

2. Announcement of a commitment of more IFVs from NATO members.

3. Announcement of the purchase of a couple extra air defense systems / missiles for Ukraine (NASAM, Patriot or Iris-T).

4. Announcement of further purchase of Soviet equipment (artillery shells, tanks, etc) off of "neutral" countries such as Pakistan, South Korea, Morroco, etc.

5. Announcement of reasonable commitments of Additional NLAWs and Javelins (as well as RPGs, M72 LAWs, Panzerfaust and Milan). I'd also love to see the export of SPIKE to Ukraine if Israel allows it.

6. Announcement that Switzerland will sell some of it's stored weapons to NATO, allowing for their re-sale / distribution to Ukraine. Namely, stored Leopard 2 MBTs.

7. Additional influx of drones to Ukraine. Both surveillance and kamikaze variants.

8. Initial agreement to provide Ukraine with a 4th Generation airframe. I don't expect to happen anytime soon, but I'd like to hear that there is a plan in place to make it inevitable.

If we hear about those 8 things happening coming out of the summit, it will have been extremely successful. With 50 countries participating, we need to see a step up in support from about 10 of them in attendance. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, Pakistan, Morroco and Switzerland could help immensely if they were interested. And of course, Turkey and Greece from behind the scenes, but we all know how complicated that process is.