Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[TR_123456]

I'm not shitting on Turkey by any stretch. I understand the unique position they're in and their tenuous (at times) relationship with NATO.

What relationship with NATO are you talking about,Tükiye is in NATO?
Our NATO allies backstabbed us in Syria,Libya and with their weapon embargos,no comment on that?

That said, I wish they'd just come right out an openly support Ukraine and give Russia two middle fingers in the process. Turkey has one of the largest, best armed military forces in Europe. Russia has been threatening them for years. This would be a great chance for them to help stick a knife in the heart of the Russian military. It would put a big smile on my face to see Turkey announce a military package including...

Who is going to provide us our gas for our industries,our backstabbing allies in NATO?
Especially the US,our so called ally of over 70 years.
The minute we would take the Ukrainian side our allies would backstab us again.

14× Leopard 2 MBTs
50x Leopard 1 MBTs
100x M113 APCs
100x BMC Kirpi MRAPs
18x Firtina 1 Howitzers
18x M110 203mm Howitzers
10x Sakarya 122mm MLRS
50,000 155mm artillery shells
50,000 203mm artillery shells
10,000 122mm Sakarya rockets

Turkey could easily afford to send this package without any meaningful degradation to their military capability.

This packages wouldnt be of any real help,what Ukraine needs is F-16's/EF3/4 or Rafales with BVR missles.
Without an airforce Ukraine cant win,impossible.
The US doesnt want Ukraine to win,just weaken the Russians enough to hopefully make sure Putin is gone.

In exchange for this package, I would expect the USA to approve the immediate sale of F-16V fighter aircraft to Turkey, as well as HIMARS and GMLRS, both of which the Turks would like to buy.

Why would we want to buy Himars or GMLRS when we have our own?
And F-16's with so many strings attached(no use against Greece etc)?

 

[Afif]

What relationship with NATO are you talking about,Tükiye is in NATO?
Our NATO allies backstabbed us in Syria,Libya and with their weapon embargos,no comment on that?

Technically, they didn't break any terms of NATO agreement by embargoes.

Somethime it is a toxic relationship. But still, a legally binding one. Kind of like arrange marriage.

NATO needs Turkey and Turkey needs NATO. And that's something that both parties agrees on.

 

[Agha Sher]

I'm not shitting on Turkey by any stretch. I understand the unique position they're in and their tenuous (at times) relationship with NATO. I also know that they've quietly donated military aid to Ukraine behind the scenes.

That said, I wish they'd just come right out an openly support Ukraine and give Russia two middle fingers in the process. Turkey has one of the largest, best armed military forces in Europe. Russia has been threatening them for years. This would be a great chance for them to help stick a knife in the heart of the Russian military. It would put a big smile on my face to see Turkey announce a military package including...

14× Leopard 2 MBTs
50x Leopard 1 MBTs
100x M113 APCs
100x BMC Kirpi MRAPs
18x Firtina 1 Howitzers
18x M110 203mm Howitzers
10x Sakarya 122mm MLRS
50,000 155mm artillery shells
50,000 203mm artillery shells
10,000 122mm Sakarya rockets

Turkey could easily afford to send this package without any meaningful degradation to their military capability.

In exchange for this package, I would expect the USA to approve the immediate sale of F-16V fighter aircraft to Turkey, as well as HIMARS and GMLRS, both of which the Turks would like to buy.

One can hope

It is against Turkiye's interest to have a completely defeated Russia. Even though these two countries are at time very hostile to each other, they also understand that they need each other.

If Russia is completely defeated, who do you think the west will target next? It is not in the US' interest to have a strong Turkiye acting as a regional power with policies that at times are not aligned with that of the US.

Turkiye needs Russia to continue to be a threat to NATO countries. It is a fine balance.

 

[500]

The possibility that Crimea will be freed from occupation is increasingly becoming a dream you say .

Not just Crimea, I dont expect any major changes at all. OK, Russians captured 70 K city, completely leveling it and sacrificing tens of thousands people.

 

[Bürküt]

It is against Turkiye's interest to have a completely defeated Russia. Even though these two countries are at time very hostile to each other, they also understand that they need each other.

If Russia is completely defeated, who do you think the west will target next?

China in the short term.In the medium-long term India and maybe the Gulf countries.

 

[Agha Sher]

Seems Ukraine is making a lot of progress on the Velyka Novosilka axis. Both sides report that a handful of villages has been captured in an area approx. 20km in width and 10km in depth. FYI the main line of defence of the ruskies in this axis is still to 5-10km from the front. However, important to note that ruskies only has 1 line of defence in constrast to other axis' where they have 2 or 3 lines.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667868077436928001

 

[GoatsMilk]

I'm not shitting on Turkey by any stretch. I understand the unique position they're in and their tenuous (at times) relationship with NATO. I also know that they've quietly donated military aid to Ukraine behind the scenes.

That said, I wish they'd just come right out an openly support Ukraine and give Russia two middle fingers in the process. Turkey has one of the largest, best armed military forces in Europe. Russia has been threatening them for years. This would be a great chance for them to help stick a knife in the heart of the Russian military. It would put a big smile on my face to see Turkey announce a military package including...

14× Leopard 2 MBTs
50x Leopard 1 MBTs
100x M113 APCs
100x BMC Kirpi MRAPs
18x Firtina 1 Howitzers
18x M110 203mm Howitzers
10x Sakarya 122mm MLRS
50,000 155mm artillery shells
50,000 203mm artillery shells
10,000 122mm Sakarya rockets

Turkey could easily afford to send this package without any meaningful degradation to their military capability.

In exchange for this package, I would expect the USA to approve the immediate sale of F-16V fighter aircraft to Turkey, as well as HIMARS and GMLRS, both of which the Turks would like to buy.

One can hope

If i were in charge i would have done a lot more. Had Ukraine fallen in the first few days of the war Turks would have been talking about war with Russia and i dont see anyone running to Turkiyes side in such a situation. I still remember the jet being downed and many nato nations turning on Turkiye for it. Many of them even packed up their air defences and left Turkiye blaming us instead of blaming the shithead instigators who have no shame and no moral compass.

Lots of people tend to have the memory of a fish in Turkiye and forget that over the jet incident we were talking about war, we were talking about it over the idlib incident and we were also talking about war over libya and guess what we were talking about potential war with Russia over Azerbaijan.

Russia failing in Ukraine turned the perception of a serious war into one where we feel Russia would get swept away should they escalate with Turkiye. For that Turks have to thank how well the Ukrainians have done despite having little war material comparatively to Russia. We are comfortable today because the Ukrainians have humilated Russia to such an extent that most of the world laughs at Russia now.

Russia had no problems turning Syria upside down, no problems sending their troops to protect PKK. They had no problems sending fighter jets to even protect Haftar in Libya. They had no issues arming Armenia "freely" against Azerbaijan. Even the current Turkish/Armenian tension stems from the Russians instigating the armenians to revolt against the Ottomans on lies that they would create a greater Armenia.

Turkiye should have been screwing Russia from day one and had they said anything all erdogan should have said is let us know when you stop arming Assad or Haftar, then maybe we can talk.

And ill say this to Turks, had this been the other way where Turkiye made a colossal mistake instead of Russia, the Russians would have used every day to bend us over and screw us over it. They already done this to Turkiye over Syria.

This is also why i say to Turks they need to see Ukraine from a Turkish lens, not an atlantacists/america or euroasainist/russia lens. They have to see it from a Turkish lens, then they will understand how critical it is for Turkiye to support Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

Some updates from the Ukrainian offensive...

Russian ammunition cooking off in Taurian...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667832734520168449

Ukraine used a deep strike to cut the rail bridge between Crimea and Melitopol that Russia uses to transport weapons and ammunition.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667903325226913792

Ukrainian troops raise the nation's flag over recaptured Blahodatne...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667832548439859201

Russian and Ukrainian sources suggesting that Ukraine is beyond thee first line of Russian defense and advancing....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667780235910053890

 

[GoatsMilk]

looks like Ukraine is making good ground in multiple directions.

 

[Barry]

One thing to remember about Ukraine as well is how they made efforts to repatriate displaced Tatars back to Crimea after they gained their sovereignty. This is not the usual action of the Orthodox.

If this was Greeks, Russians, Armenians, they'd have pretended Turks never existed within their lands and would take steps to suppress or remove what Turkish population remained. You'd end up with "Muslim Greek" Thrace rhetoric, 1960's Cyprus, the ethnic cleanse of Karabagh.

 

[Dmitry]

The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 3 more villages: Lobkove, Levadnoe and Neskuchnoe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667919224981929985

 

[Relic]

The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 3 more villages: Lobkove, Levadnoe and Neskuchnoe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667919224981929985

89km from Lobkove to the Ukrainian Army's obvious destination in Melitipol, where they'll attempt to cut the Russian Army in half.

God Speed. It's going to be a bloody couple months.

 

[Agha Sher]

89km from Lobkove to the Ukrainian Army's obvious destination in Melitipol, where they'll attempt to cut the Russian Army in half.

God Speed. It's going to be a bloody couple months.

This is not the Melitopol front but the Velyka Novosilka front. this theathre is most likely aiming for Mariopol or Berdyansk. It would also cut the ruskies in half and allow for the destruction of the bridge.

 

[Merzifonlu]

I think the conflicts inside Ukraine will largely end this year. After being expelled from Ukraine, Russia has been dealing with the instability on Russia's borders for many years.

IMO the EU will first focus on the Kaliningrad issue after this war. They will definitely not leave that region to the Russians. They will probably indirectly seize Kaliningrad by forming a terrorist organization made up of ethnic Russians. First, they overthrow the Russian administration through this organization, and then they recognize Kaliningrad as an independent state.

Then this so-called independent state joins either Poland or Lithuania, if only she does not join the EU.

 

[Agha Sher]

I think the conflicts inside Ukraine will largely end this year. After being expelled from Ukraine, Russia has been dealing with the instability on Russia's borders for many years.

IMO the EU will first focus on the Kaliningrad issue after this war. They will definitely not leave that region to the Russians. They will probably indirectly seize Kaliningrad by forming a terrorist organization made up of ethnic Russians. First, they overthrow the Russian administration through this organization, and then they recognize Kaliningrad as an independent state.

Then this so-called independent state joins either Poland or Germany, if only it does not join the EU.

A bit far fetched. Russia would rather nuke Kaliningrad than let it go away.

 

[GoatsMilk]

A bit far fetched. Russia would rather nuke Kaliningrad than let it go away.

The moment Russia nukes someone they will lose their nuclear advantage, because every single one of her neighbours and foes will acquire nuclear weapons. And don't forget the Russians have milked the threat of nuclear war at every opportunity to make gains. But the moment her enemies have nuclear capabilities it voids that advantage and actually brings Russian survivability into question. Because any nation that has nukes that gets nuked by Russia will send nukes to moscow.

Russia doesnt use nukes in Ukraine not because they have kind hearts but rather because they know the cost to them in the long run will be too high.

 

[Agha Sher]

The moment Russia nukes someone they will lose their nuclear advantage, because every single one of her neighbours and foes will acquire nuclear weapons. And don't forget the Russians have milked the threat of nuclear war at every opportunity to make gains. But the moment her enemies have nuclear capabilities it voids that advantage and actually brings Russian survivability into question. Because any nation that has nukes that gets nuked by Russia will send nukes to moscow.

Russia doesnt use nukes in Ukraine not because they have kind hearts but rather because they know the cost to them in the long run will be too high.

In this case, Russia would be nuking herself. Also, nukes are expensive and none of the current nuclear powers are interested in more proliferation. So they wouldn't allow man countries to acquire nukes. Only strong regional players like Turkiye, KSA, Poland would get nukes.

 

[Gary]

Both Russia and Ukraine will face perpetual conflict in wherever line of contact exist between the two.

Waging perpetual war is what the Russians are betting at with their larger population.

 

[GoatsMilk]

In this case, Russia would be nuking herself. Also, nukes are expensive and none of the current nuclear powers are interested in more proliferation. So they wouldn't allow man countries to acquire nukes. Only strong regional players like Turkiye, KSA, Poland would get nukes.

I somewhat disagree, once nations watch Russia nuke a nation they will acquire nukes. No two ways about it, because at that point it comes about survivability. The smaller nations will find more pressure to acquire them rather then the big ones though i agree that nations like Poland and Turkiye will get nukes.

For example take a nation like Finland who will see that when losing an invasion that the Russians instigated they will then resort to nukes, will have no choice but to get nukes irrespective of what America wants.

Because if Russia invades you, you will know that if they start losing they will nuke you. That means you have no choice but to get your own deterrent. But you are right the anglo-american world will try to stop nations getting it, but i doubt they will be successful. As witnessed with nations like Pakistan and India if a nations wants it they will find a way.

 

[Dmitry]

89km from Lobkove to the Ukrainian Army's obvious destination in Melitipol, where they'll attempt to cut the Russian Army in half.

God Speed. It's going to be a bloody couple months.