Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Bogeyman 

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After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy​


In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.
The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10 percent in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.
Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.
But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

One Ukrainian soldier said in an interview this week that his unit’s drone picked up footage of a half-dozen Western armored vehicles caught in an artillery barrage south of the town of Velyka Novosilka.
“They all burned,” said the soldier, who identified himself as Sgt. Igor. “Everybody is hoping for a big breakthrough,” he said, adding a plea that those scrutinizing from afar appreciate the importance of slow and steady advances.
Russia had many months to prepare for the counteroffensive, and the front is littered with mines, tank traps and dug-in troops, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters fly overhead with increasing frequency.
Given those fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that Ukraine would sustain relatively severe losses in the early stages of the campaign.

This week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions, and called on Western allies to quicken the pace of deliveries.

American officials acknowledged that pause and said that the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks. With the influx of cluster munitions from the United States, they said, the pace might pick up.

“It’s not as fast, but it’s not catastrophically behind schedule,” the British defense minister, Ben Wallace, said on Wednesday. “It is doing what anyone else would do having to fight through minefields towards the Russian line.”
The problems come into focus out in the farm fields in southern Ukraine where much of the counteroffensive is being fought. There the Bradley Fighting Vehicles, long coveted by the Ukrainians, have been running over anti-tank mines on a daily basis, soldiers who have fought in the vehicles say.

The vehicles, which weigh about 34 tons, are designed to carry infantry soldiers through areas exposed to gunfire or artillery. A rear ramp opens to allow soldiers to pile out and fight. In planning for the counteroffensive, the Bradleys were meant to carry soldiers across open fields to reach Russian trenches and bunkers.
The Bradleys have done part of their job well; their thick armor has provided good protection for most soldiers, who have survived many of the mine blasts with few injuries.
“Your ears ring and things inside fly around,” said one soldier, who asked to be identified only by his first name and rank, Pvt. Serhiy. He survived such an explosion last month in fighting south of the town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. But in many cases the blasts severely damaged the vehicles, immobilizing them well before they could reach the Russian lines.


Military experts have long said that the first 15 miles of the counteroffensive would be the hardest, as attacking troops generally need three times more power — whether in weapons, personnel or both — than defending forces.
Ukraine’s top military officer, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, expressed frustration that Ukraine is fighting without Western F-16 warplanes, which the United States only recently agreed to allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on, but which are not expected to be delivered for several months at least. That has left the Ukrainian troops vulnerable to the Russian helicopters and artillery.
Military analysts cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary general.
Nevertheless, he added, the absence of air superiority and air defenses that Western jets could provide for Ukraine’s attack means “that casualty rates are likely to be higher than in other conventional conflicts.”
The precise numbers of weapons and armored vehicles that have been destroyed in the counteroffensive, as opposed to “mobility kills” that can be repaired, are closely guarded secrets, and the U.S. officials did not give raw numbers, though they did agree on the percentages of weaponry lost. But a combination of open source data and official estimates can provide a snapshot in time of the destruction, particularly in the early going.
Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of the three Western-equipped and trained units that were deployed early in the campaign, was set to receive 99 Bradleys, according to the leaked U.S. military plans for the counteroffensive from February — still the most recent that have been made public.

Data from Oryx, a military analysis site that counts only losses that it has visually confirmed, show that 28 of those Bradleys have been abandoned, damaged or destroyed, including 15 in a village in Zaporizhzhia Province on June 8 and 9 as the 47th was attacked by helicopters while trapped in a minefield. Six additional Bradleys were reported abandoned or destroyed in Mala Tokmachka on June 26, but Oryx researchers said these losses had occurred earlier, although it is not clear exactly when.

Given that the 47th was the only brigade initially slated to receive the Bradleys, that means that nearly one-third of the original vehicles have been lost — although all but seven of them were blown up at one battleground.
“It is within the realm of possibility that Ukrainian forces have seen losses at this level,” said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with the British security intelligence firm Janes, adding that a “significant” level of lost weapons was generally a hallmark of wars of attrition, like the one in Ukraine.
The Oryx data show that only 24 tanks were lost for the entire month of June, including some from Ukraine’s own arsenal in addition to those supplied by Western allies.
Ten of them were German-made Leopard tanks and mine-clearers, the data show. Presumably, they were lost in battle with Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, one of the three units deployed early in the counteroffensive, and which was slated to receive 32 Leopards in the U.S. planning documents from Feb. 28.
That would mean that the brigade lost 30 percent of the Leopards it was given — all but two of them in the first week of fighting, the Oryx data show.

The Ukrainian authorities say the army has so far advanced the deepest in southern areas of the Donetsk region, but no more than about five miles from the former front line at Velyka Novosilka. It faces another 55 miles to reach the Sea of Azov, a primary goal of the counteroffensive, as it would cut the land bridge to Crimea, wreaking havoc with Russia’s already shaky logistics. Ukraine’s forces are also advancing in two areas in the Zaporizhzhia region.
It is even slower near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, where the bulk of Bradleys and Leopards have been sent to an area of open fields with little cover, There, Ukraine’s army has advanced only about a mile.

 

Relic

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South Korea 🇰🇷 will offer Ukraine $52 Billion usd in post-war reconstruction projects. This is an extremely generous offer by the South Koreans (that also benefits them)...


Unfortunately, what Ukraine really needs from them is military aid, which is made complicated by their laws that do not allow it. They've been creative in sending a rumored 500,000 155mm artillery shells to the United States, so that the Americans can ship more of their own inventory and use the South Korean supply as backfill. But what Ukraine really needs is for South Korea to transfer military equipment to the USA or the EU, and allow them to redistribute it to Ukraine as they see fit. South Korea has an enormous arms and manufacturing industry and their rivals in the north are known to have sent weapons to Russia. Think about how far package that included the following would go....

62x KE1 MBTs (120mm version)
100x M113 APCs
100x K81 60mm Mortars
48x M101 105mm Howitzers
24x M109A6 Howitzers
10,000 120mm HE MBTs rounds
100,000 105mm artillery shells
250,000 155mm artillery shells
20,000 60mm mortar rounds

South Korea has sooooo much weaponry in storage alone, that they could send a $2-$3 billion package like this and wouldn't even blink. They're armed to the teeth. A package such as this would be enough for Ukraine to equip another mechanized brigade and multiple artillery brigades in order to open another access of advance and further stress the Russians.
 

Ryder

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listening to various Ukrainian generals over the past month or two its become clear they are becoming sick and tired of being drip fed weapons prolonging the war. If the western zombies who scrutinise, discriminate and denounce Turkish actions over Ukrainian support, did the same towards the USA who are clearly using Ukraine to make Russia bleed, maybe the Ukrainians would have got critical weaponry sooner.

But as it stands the anglo-american world are using Ukraine to cripple Russia, the longer the war goes on the better it is for them. Since with each passing day Russia loses power.

Ukraine needs to lobby the smaller nations harder, there is more chance critical gear comes sooner via them then via the USA. Nations who don't want to upset Russia can use Poland as a clearing house. Sell the equipment to Poland and Poland can hand it over to Ukraine, they dont seem to care one bit if they upset Putin.

Poland and Russia have been enemies for centuries.

Whatever Poland does they will do it as a middle finger to the Russians.

Honestly as Turks the Russians have been our enemies for centuries not once instance especially today where even bother to hit them where it hurts.

The AKP even handed over Chechens to the Russians. After killing 33 Turkish Soldiers this should have been the final straw with Russia.

Its embarassing.
 

Bosniak Revival

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No Suprises here

The West does not want Ukraine to win because the West are still allied with Russia globably.

Many policy makers in the West want Russia to be on their side against China & more importantly against Islamic countries.

After all Russia & US are effectivley allies in Syria for example. Not to mention Karabakh issue as well.

Their goal is to push for some sort of Ceasefire. Russia will probably pull out of the south, take the east of Mariupol & keep pre 2022 Donetsk. UN observor force would then monitor the border, Crimean Canal & Upper Luhansk. This is what Western politicians like Biden are Pushing for.

After that Russia will continue its policy of attacking Muslims. Expect a full invasion of Kazakhstan, Georgia, Idlib & maybe even Azerbaijan in the future.

Both the West & Russia are evil. However Russia is more of an evil doer because there at least is a checks & balances system in the West whereas Russians can arbitrerally detain & murder people en masse like in Chechnya 1999-2000, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria etc..
 

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Another destroyed putin armored group.
aftermath russiein soldiers came to watch what left.
All of them were very excited and happy on own army loss.
They keep said that those are junks and only can do one thing right and it is to sell all this russian military vehicles to scrap depots

 

Relic

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What this individual is getting woefully wrong is that the you can't send MBTs, IFVs and APCs to Ukraine by the hundreds, without properly training troops on how to best use them. You can't just send Ukraine 1000 armored vehicles and say "train on them as you go". Stationary, huge stockpiles of armor will simply become targets of Russian air strikes. Your elements have to be mobile, which means your troops have to be trained to use the equipment.

People forget that Ukraine is less than a year removed from receiving a good majority og the western equipment. It's much different than the Soviet made equipment that they had become adept with. Furthermore, Ukraine now has the most diverse military inventory on earth. So much so that they've essentially had to give specific equipment to each brigade and allowed that brigade to learn how to use and maintain it. Most armies have a couple variants of MBTs / IFVs, APCs / MRAPs and 1-4 types of artillery. Ukraine is using dozens of different types of armored vehicles and artillery, from as many as 35 different countries. As a result, the West funnels equipment to Ukraine with two things in mind.

1. That there is an available Brigade / Battalion that can be pulled out of Ukraine to learn how to use / maintain said equipment.

2. Replacement equipment that is the same / similar to the equipment Ukraine has lost to normal war attrition.

The West could send the following ADDITIONAL package to Ukraine TOMORROW, but who would be trained to use it effectively?

Main Battle Tanks
100x M1A1 Abrams 🇺🇸
250x Leopard 1 🇩🇪
75x Leopard 2 🇩🇪 🇨🇦 🇳🇴 🇸🇪 🇫🇮🇵🇱🇬🇷
60-80x PT-91 🇵🇱

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
200x Bradley 🇺🇸
200x Rosomak 🇵🇱 🇫🇮
100x Marder 🇩🇪
100x Warrior 🇬🇧
50x CV90 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇳🇴 🇳🇱 🇪🇪
50x LAV 6.0 🇨🇦
50x AMX10-RC 🇫🇷

Armored Personnel Carriers
200x Stryker 🇺🇸
200x M113 🇺🇸
200x Kirpi 🇹🇷
100x VAB 🇫🇷
100x Bushmaster 🇦🇺
100x BTR-60 🇧🇬
100x Bulldog 🇬🇧

Artillery
36x M109A6 155mm 🇺🇸
36x L118 / L119 105mm 🇺🇸 🇬🇧
18x RAK 120mm 🇵🇱
18x M109L 155mm 🇮🇹
18x M109A3 155mm 🇳🇴
18x Firtina 155mm 🇹🇷
18x Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇳🇱

The West could literally send this package in a matter of weeks, but Ukraine doesn't have enough troops trained on these systems to put them to immediate use. These systems are phased in when Ukraine has forces adequately trained to use them and when a replacement is needed for the depleting stockpile of Soviet equipment available to Ukraine.
 

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India and France are preparing a new "peace plan" for Ukraine - media



Modi and Macron also decided to act as "peacekeepers"

Narendra Modi instructed his government to develop a new plan together with representatives of France.

India and France are actively working on a new plan to end the war between Russia Ukraine, which is different from the previous ones. On Saturday, July 15, Le Monde reports, citing its own sources.





It is noted that the new plan has significant differences from previous peace initiatives put forward by China and African countries.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly instructed his government to develop a new plan together with French representatives during a visit to Paris on July 13-14.

At a press conference at the Elysee Palace on July 14, Modi emphasized the need to unite the world's countries to address important issues, including the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the coronavirus pandemic.

France considers India an important partner in the search for peace initiatives to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine, Le Monde notes. Most of the meeting between Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron was devoted to discussing this war, which has a negative impact on relations between France and countries in Asia and Africa.

@Nilgiri
 

GoatsMilk

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No Suprises here

The West does not want Ukraine to win because the West are still allied with Russia globably.

Many policy makers in the West want Russia to be on their side against China & more importantly against Islamic countries.

After all Russia & US are effectivley allies in Syria for example. Not to mention Karabakh issue as well.

Their goal is to push for some sort of Ceasefire. Russia will probably pull out of the south, take the east of Mariupol & keep pre 2022 Donetsk. UN observor force would then monitor the border, Crimean Canal & Upper Luhansk. This is what Western politicians like Biden are Pushing for.

After that Russia will continue its policy of attacking Muslims. Expect a full invasion of Kazakhstan, Georgia, Idlib & maybe even Azerbaijan in the future.

Both the West & Russia are evil. However Russia is more of an evil doer because there at least is a checks & balances system in the West whereas Russians can arbitrerally detain & murder people en masse like in Chechnya 1999-2000, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria etc..

This is how it looked to me.

Anglo-American wanted a Russian invasion to take the whole country, but once occupied a similar insurrection like in Afghanistan would occur for decades. It explains why the americans were training them for that sort of war and why they were so against Turkiye selling Ukraine TB2's. They initially expected/wanted Russia to occupy the entire country.

Germany/French Axis were on board with the Russian annexation, they would have been ok with it and i suspect behind closed doors they conveyed as much to Russia. So many things leading into the war suggests this, like the German general saying Russia needs to be respected just about as they launch the invasion. Also all the business dealings and other bilateral dealings across the globe. Like the Russian/French alliance in Libya and Syria that no one talks about. Remember in Syria French corporations were even building defensive structures for the PYD with Assads blessing.

Turkey/Poland/Romania/Baltic states and many other nations want Ukraine to win completely.

On a side note all this crap about a USA/China war, only take that serious once all western investments which played the primary role in raising the Chinese status globally is pulled back, until then everything take as smoke and mirrors.
 

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France played a big indirect role in making the Russians feel confident to invade Ukraine. They should be no where near any sort of political arrangement between Ukraine and Russia. If Ukraine trusts France they will be cheated by them.
 

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine explained why air defense cannot shoot down drones and missiles away from cities

July 16, 2023, 17:10






" If you put air defense systems away from settlements, then the Russians will take advantage of these gaps."

Ukraine does not yet have the ability to deploy air defense systems away from cities. This will allow the occupiers to easily detect gaps in air defenses. Yuriy Ignat, speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced this on the air of the telethon.



He explained that for effective air defense, the country needs to be "encircled". However, Ukraine does not yet have enough funds to do this.

"Air defense systems are different - medium and short range, there are fighter aircraft, and there are mobile fire groups. What we have now, and these are the old Soviet systems, and what our partners have provided us, it is not enough for us to take Ukraine into the air defense ring so that the mouse does not slip through," the speaker said.

Therefore, the defenders place air defense systems and means near individual settlements in order to form a ring. According to Ignat, whenever possible, air defense systems are located as densely as possible in order to destroy enemy targets.

"If air defense systems are placed further, the enemy will take advantage of the gaps. Now there is no other way but to place air defense systems closer to settlements," he said.

Recall that on the night of July 13, Russian troops launched 20 Shahed-136/131 attack drones, two Caliber cruise missiles and an Iskander-M ballistic missile in Ukraine. Air defense forces shot down all enemy drones and two cruise missiles
 

UkroTurk

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The Russians are advancing on the Kupyansk direction


July 16, 2023, 15:31



Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold the line in the Kupyansk direction

There are fierce battles in the Kharkiv region, the positions of the parties change dynamically several times a day.



Russian troops are actively advancing in the Kupyansk direction of the Kharkov region for two days in a row. This was stated by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar in Telegram on Sunday, July 16.

"We are on the defensive. Stubborn battles are going on, the positions of the parties are changing dynamically several times a day," she wrote.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually moving forward in the Bakhmut direction. According to Malyar, every day there is an advance of the Ukrainian military on the southern flank around Bakhmut. On the northern flank, the defenders are trying to hold their positions, the enemy is attacking.

The Russians also continue offensive operations in the Avdeevsky and Maryinsky directions.

"Our defenders continue to effectively contain them. Hot battles are going on without changing the situation," Maliar added.

Earlier it was reported that the Ukrainian defenders advanced in one of the sections of the Berdyansk direction of the front.

The Pentagon noted that the pace of the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army is not rapid, because they are taking place in very difficult conditions. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine amaze with their actions.
 

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Putin assessed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:​


- Vladimir Putin commented on the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The Russian regime's leader claimed that the Ukrainian operation allegedly "has no success," while Russian occupiers "behave heroically" on the battlefield.
- Putin made these statements during an interview with one of the state propaganda publications.
- He sincerely believes that all attempts by the enemy to break through their defense, including the use of strategic reserves, have not been successful during the entire offensive.
- Putin praised the Russian military, stating that they "behave heroically" on the battlefield and even in some areas "launch their own offensive, take the most advantageous positions, such as heights, and so on."
 

Relic

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France played a big indirect role in making the Russians feel confident to invade Ukraine. They should be no where near any sort of political arrangement between Ukraine and Russia. If Ukraine trusts France they will be cheated by them.
Even worse is that they have lagged behind their peers in per capita military aid to Ukraine. In terms of notable equipment, they've sent...

1x SAMP/T air defense y system with Aster air defense missiles (half supplied by Italy)
2x Crotale air defense batteries
40x AMX10-RC IFVs
60x VAB APCs
30x CAESAR 155mm howitzers
2x M270 LRU MLRS
Unknown quantity 155mm shells
Unknown quantity SCALP NG

That might seem like a lot, but France has substantial military capacity and their per capita spending / donations should be more in line with USA, Germany or Poland, IMO.
 

GoatsMilk

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Even worse is that they have lagged behind their peers in per capita military aid to Ukraine. In terms of notable equipment, they've sent...

1x SAMP/T air defense y system with Aster air defense missiles (half supplied by Italy)
2x Crotale air defense batteries
40x AMX10-RC IFVs
60x VAB APCs
30x CAESAR 155mm howitzers
2x M270 LRU MLRS
Unknown quantity 155mm shells
Unknown quantity SCALP NG

That might seem like a lot, but France has substantial military capacity and their per capita spending / donations should be more in line with USA, Germany or Poland, IMO.

Do you remember the two aircraft carriers France sold to Russia but because of American pressure they were directed to egypt instead? France sees Russia as a potential ally to leverage thier continental position against America's global position.

Any peace deals being proposed by them is really about helping Russia out to help themselves out. I suspect with India on board its for them to create a perception that is a new kind of deal that doesn't have any of the baggage that others may bring.
 

MaciekRS

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Poland and Russia have been enemies for centuries.

Whatever Poland does they will do it as a middle finger to the Russians.
We are proud leaders in Russia Hate Club
"Poles are the most unfavorable toward Russia, with 98% saying they have a negative view of the country and 90% expressing a very unfavorable view"
 

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