Girkin writes:
The moment of truth is getting closer.
Or rather, the time is getting closer when my oldest (from the beginning of the Syrian campaign) forecasts about the development of the situation in the "Ukraine-Turkey-Syria" connection will come true.
For those who did not read and did not listen to me in 2015-2016, I remind (point by point) my theses, which have never changed since then and have not become (in my opinion) less likely:
Sooner or later, the Russian Federation will have to enter into a direct military clash with Turkey on the initiative of the latter. The fighting will take place in Syria, in the Transcaucasus and on the Black Sea. The direct participation of large contingents of Turkish troops (under the guise of "volunteers" or even without such cover) in operations against our army in Ukraine and Crimea is not ruled out.
The Turks will begin to move on to a direct open confrontation with the Russian Federation after they "squeeze dry" from the Kremlin's amazing people all the concessions that can be obtained peacefully. Then they will begin to put pressure on military force. The Turks will choose the moment of entry into the war, taking into account the maximum weakening of the military forces of the Russian Federation and the unpreparedness to repel Turkish aggression.
The first stage will be the closure of the Bosporus and Dardanelles for our fleet and supply ships delivering reinforcements to Syria (Erdogan may take this action to be implemented already this year).
This will be followed by a series of armed provocations in Syria by the so-called. "armed opposition" against our troops in order to expand the zone of control of the pro-Turkish authorities. After waiting for the depletion of ammunition and supplies, Turkish troops will try to inflict a complete defeat on our expeditionary force and Syrian troops in northern Syria. Naturally, only the Russian Federation and official Damascus will be blamed for the escalation of the conflict.
Our expeditionary corps, cut off from supplies and reinforcements, does not have the opportunity to defeat the Turkish army.
- The fate of our peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh and Armenia seems just as unenviable. Which will be crushed and (at best) interned by the Armenians, or simply destroyed and captured by the Turkish-Azerbaijani coalition.
The only thing that can deter the Turks (apart from the direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons, which is fraught with a world nuclear war) from defeating our troops in Syria is the direct intervention of Iran and its readiness to directly enter into a military confrontation with Turkey in Syria and the Transcaucasus (I remind you that Turkey is strenuously is now friends with the main opponents of Iran - Israel).
In any case, even if Ankara does not dare to go into a full-scale military conflict with the Russian Federation, the Turks will "strangle" our grouping in Syria, since all communications are based on sea supplies through Novorossiysk to Tartus, and blocking the airspace with Syria is also not a problem for the Turks .
The question of the timely withdrawal of our expeditionary force in Syria has long been "overripe", but has not yet been raised as such. - A large group of our military remains "hostage" to Erdogan. With a high probability, we can expect that the long-awaited rejection of the shameful and senseless "grain deal" will set in motion a chain of consequences that naturally leads to a sharp aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations and an acceleration of Turkey's inevitable transition to the camp of our open enemies.
The time allotted for the possibility of evacuating our troops from Syria during the "deal" is apparently lost forever.
