Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Ecderha

Experienced member
Messages
4,385
Reactions
4 7,598
Nation of residence
Bulgaria
Nation of origin
Turkey
ruzzian High level of Strategy!

Avdiivka front, ruzzians used MT-LB as a kamikaze to brake through.
The MT-LB was said to have been loaded with 2 tons of explosives.
The vehicle did NOT get anywhere because it hit a mine.


As one Ukraine solider said on the beginning of WAR " thank god that they are stupid "
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
7,345
Reactions
21 11,959
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Sanctions as have been proven with Iran, is always useless.


Almost no Russian oil is sold below $60 cap-say western officials

Allies discuss ways to ‘toughen up’ key sanction as Moscow circumvents limits on seaborne crude


The US-led price cap on Russia’s oil sales is being almost completely circumvented, according to western officials and Russian export data, forcing countries to explore ways to reinforce one of their key economic sanctions against Moscow. One senior European government official said “almost none” of the shipments of seaborne crude in October were executed below the $60-a-barrel limit that the G7 and its allies have attempted to impose. “The latest data makes the case that we’re going to have to toughen up . . . there’s absolutely no appetite for letting Russia just keep doing this,” the official said. EU officials have held discussions in recent days on reinforcing the cap, including options for strengthening enforcement or clamping down on Russia’s access to the used oil tanker market. Concerns among western officials are backed up by official Russian statistics on oil sales in October, which Moscow says shows the average price received was above $80 a barrel. While Russian economic statistics have been questioned during the war, the level recorded is the basis for how much Moscow taxes oil exports. The jump in Russian prices has dealt a blow to G7 efforts to limit the funds flowing to the Kremlin to fund its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and comes as Kyiv has made only limited progress in its counteroffensive.

G7 members and Australia introduced the price cap measures for crude oil last December, aiming to squeeze Russia’s revenues by cutting off access to western services such as shipping and insurance unless traders abided by the $60 limit. While the measures enjoyed some early success, Russia has proved adept at countering them, building up its so-called “shadow fleet” of ageing oil tankers to circumvent western markets, for example. The average price of Urals, Russia’s main export grade, moved above the $60 limit this summer as oil prices rallied due to supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Moscow with the wider Opec+ cartel, but a substantial portion continued to trade below that level. But by late September the FT reported that almost three-quarters of all seaborne Russian crude flows travelled without western insurance in August, a key sign that more were starting to circumvent the cap. In October, only 37 of the 134 vessels that shipped Russian oil held western insurance and officials say the number operating below the cap is now likely to be much lower.

European officials are concerned that some western insurance providers have been given false declarations from Russian oil companies or traders, which must provide written assurances the crude is priced below $60. One mechanism by which this has been achieved previously is by inflating shipping costs. Western officials say they remain committed to the price cap, even as they acknowledge few barrels still trade below it.

A US Treasury official said the goal was not just an effort to “make as many barrels of oil as possible travel under the cap”, but also “to change Russia’s incentives in a way that makes it make hard choices”. Shifting to selling oil largely without western insurance and shipping has caused “great cost” to the Kremlin. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management who has advised the US Treasury on the price cap, said longer journeys for Russian oil tankers, higher insurance premiums, additions to port capacity and new capital expenditures had added about $36 a barrel to the cost of Russian oil sales, limiting Moscow’s profits. G7 members have already started to step up enforcement of the cap. Last week the UK sanctioned Paramount Energy & Commodities DMCC, a Dubai-based trader, saying it had been “used by Russia to soften the blow of oil-related sanctions”. The US Treasury department this month requested information from 30 ship management companies about 98 vessels it suspects of violating the cap, a person familiar with the matter said. The request was first reported by Reuters. Of the 30 ship management companies contacted, 17 of them were in G7 price-cap coalition countries. Six were in the UAE, with others in India, Turkey, China, Hong Kong and Indonesia, a person familiar with the matter said.

The price Russia is getting for its oil is still below Brent, the crude benchmark which averaged $89 a barrel in October. But Russia has been able to reduce the discount offered on its oil from as much as $40 a barrel earlier this year to less than $10 a barrel last month. The price cap was designed to keep Russian crude flowing in global markets, as G7 members tried to avoid a supply crunch and price spike that would benefit Moscow. Western policymakers facing elections are also keen to keep prices in check to help tame inflation. US President Joe Biden, who faces a probable re-election battle against former president Donald Trump next year, has vowed to try to keep pump prices down in the world’s largest oil consuming country. Russia has also placed restrictions on exports of refined fuels, blaming domestic shortages but raising fears Moscow could weaponise oil supplies. Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels and Ian Johnston in London.

 

Soldier30

Contributor
Messages
978
Reactions
8 584
Nation of residence
Russia
Nation of origin
Russia
Footage of Russian military personnel using an MT-LB armored personnel carrier as a kamikaze vehicle in the Avdeevsky direction near the city of Donetsk. The MT-LB military transporter was loaded with a large amount of explosives and sent towards the positions of the Ukrainian army. The armored personnel carrier did not reach the Ukrainian positions and exploded on an anti-tank mine. This is already the third case of military equipment being used as kamikaze vehicles in Ukraine.

 

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
New announcements for military aid for Ukraine today.

The United States 🇺🇸 announced that they will provide spare parts for Ukrainian F-16s to be repaired with. A multi-national coalition is creating a repair hub in Poland, keeping the aircraft as close to Ukraine as possible for return speedy return to service.


Finland 🇫🇮 announced a new 100 million military aid package for Ukraine today. The contents of the package were not disclosed as has been customary with Finnish war aid to this point.


The Netherlands 🇳🇱 announced that they will spend 2 billion Euros on Ukrainian military aid in 2024, which is roughly 25% more than what they donated in 2023. This is of importance because Germany 🇩🇪 also upped their military aid to Ukraine recently, from $4 billion to $8 billion. The Europeans keep stepping up.


Ukrainian 🇺🇦 and Italian 🇮🇹 officials discussed additional military aid for Ukraine, as well as joint production of weapons. Note that Italy does not discuss its military transfers publically, therefore, it's likely that more aid was committed, but we'll find out the details later.

 

Soldier30

Contributor
Messages
978
Reactions
8 584
Nation of residence
Russia
Nation of origin
Russia
Russian aviation is quite actively using Ka-52 helicopters in Ukraine, armed with Vikhr guided missiles. Due to the long range of destruction of targets with Whirlwind missiles, which reaches 10 kilometers, it is quite difficult to obtain high-quality video where a destroyed target is visible. However, from time to time, videos showing the target being hit appear. One of them, footage of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, guided by a Vikhr missile, hitting a rare Ukrainian modification of the MT-LB military transporter. The video was filmed in the Novomikhailovka area.

 

Ecderha

Experienced member
Messages
4,385
Reactions
4 7,598
Nation of residence
Bulgaria
Nation of origin
Turkey
On the evening of November 16, at one of the checkpoints in Kreminna, a car UAZ “Patriot” was blown up, in which there were “deputy head of the Criminal Investigation Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR,” police lieutenant colonel Vladimir Pakholenko and “acting deputy minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the LPR,” police lieutenant colonel Oleg Shumilov.

both were hospitalized and diagnosed with shrapnel wounds.

 

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
New USA 🇺🇸 military aid package for Ukraine. The package is worth $100 million usd and contains the following...

- 1x Additional HIMARS
- Additional GMLRS
- Additional Stinger AA missiles
- Additional 155mm artillery shells
- Additional 105mm artillery shells
- Additional TOW missiles
- Additional Javelin missiles
- Additional AT4 rockets
- 3 million rounds of small arms ammo
- Obstacle clearing demolitions equipment
- Cold weather gear
- Spare parts, maintenance and other equipment

Note: USA 🇺🇸 currently has roughly $5 Billion usd in Presidential Drawdown Authority remaining from which they can draw, as well as $1.1 billion usd worth of authorized funds for replacement of weapons. After that point a new spending package must be approved from Congress. That means they can continue with these small, bi-weekly packages for the foreseeable future, however, they cannot send bigger, more robust packages with armor, air assets, etc until the $61 Billion usd that the Biden Government is looking for gets passed.

 
Last edited:

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada

Himars show continues. This time against a Pantsir.
Russian air defenses continue to prove deeply inadequate against modern weapons. Their legacy systems and stand alone units are routinely getting smashed by GMLRS and FPV Drones. Meanwhile, their S-300 and S-400 systems have been victimized by Western cruise missile strikes.

There is a reality in which GLSDB (with 150km range) arrives steadily throughout 2024 and when paired with F-16s using HAARM, JASSM, Stormshadow, and possibly even Taurus, Russian air defense systems in mainland Ukraine and Crimea are made fairly extinct, making manpads Russia's sole answer to swarms of Ukrainian drones, as well as their CAS. That could be an extremely interesting and deeply costly scenario for Russia. Air defense systems are extremely complicated to manufacture and their procurement is slow and costly. If a scenario arises in which Ukraine can start routinely bringing their air assets close to the front to drop JDAMS and fire guided rockets, but Russia can't do the same thing without taking huge risks as the Ukrainian air defense envelope widens and becomes more integrated, it could be interesting to see how much damage Ukraine's air force can start inflicting on Russian positions close to the front. If they can start dropping dozens of 1000lb / 2000lb bombs guided by JDAM kits on Russian trenches and forward positions, that's going to be a human barbecue. JDAMS have a published range of 28km, however, that's when launched from higher altitudes. One wonders if Ukraine can hammer Russian air defenses to the point that there are gaping holes between the units responsbile for protecting their soldiers at the front, can low, fast, F-16s get within 10-15kms of the front (out of the vision of Manpads) and start bombing Russian forward positions with relative impunity?

Simultaneously, it's important that Ukraine continue producing and procuring thousands of cheap, long range drones that they can launch into Russia. That will fix Russian air defense assets at bases and key infrastructure locations, ensuring that Russia cannot divert those assets to the front, out of fear of losing vital assets based / located in Russia proper.
 
Last edited:

UkroTurk

Experienced member
Land Warfare Specialist
Professional
Messages
2,118
Reactions
26 3,764
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Danilov: after the elections, Putin will begin total mobilization - we have 4 months to prepare



21:43, 20.11.23



Danilov warned about a new stage of total war

The Kremlin is committed to a long war and after the elections it will no longer be restrained by public opinion.

After the March “presidential elections,” the authoritarian regime in Russia will finally be “cemented,” and the Kremlin will deploy its military potential to its full potential, without regard to public opinion in Russia itself. Ukraine and the world have no more than four months to prepare for this.

This was stated by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov in his speech at the international security forum in Canada.

“Russia’s strategic goals are absolutely opposite to Ukrainian ones. This is the destruction of the state of Ukraine and the absorption of the Ukrainian ethnic group within the framework of the “Russian world”. The Kremlin is not going to give up this goal, it is preparing for a long war,” he noted.


According to Danilov, Russia was able to adapt to the war and Western sanctions and is now actively pouring funds into its military-industrial complex. The NSDC Secretary emphasized that Russia has proven to be more resistant to Western sanctions than expected, and its economy is gradually moving onto a war footing.


“We believe that the most effective way to prevent repeated aggression is the controlled decomposition of Russia into several parts. After all, the collapse of Russia will automatically lead to the dismantling of the Putin regime, the desovereignization of the Russian Federation, as well as its denuclearization and demilitarization,” Danilov emphasized.
 
Last edited:

Oublious

Experienced member
The Netherlands Correspondent
Messages
1,936
Reactions
7 4,104
Nation of residence
Nethelands
Nation of origin
Turkey
Support to Ukraine stopped, congrats Russia in no time you will get your revenge.
 

Spitfire9

Committed member
Messages
257
Reactions
6 344
Nation of residence
United Kingdom
Nation of origin
United Kingdom
Support to Ukraine stopped, congrats Russia in no time you will get your revenge.
A bizarre thing to write. Russia will get its revenge? For what? When did support for Ukraine stop? US just confirmed it intends supporting Ukraine long term - for what that is worth. EU does not want a democratic Ukraine to be replaced by an autocratic, anti-democratic state.
 

Woland

Committed member
Moderator
Ukraine Moderator
Messages
156
Reactions
4 520
Nation of residence
United States of America
Nation of origin
Ukraine
A bizarre thing to write. Russia will get its revenge? For what? When did support for Ukraine stop? US just confirmed it intends supporting Ukraine long term - for what that is worth. EU does not want a democratic Ukraine to be replaced by an autocratic, anti-democratic state.
Actions speak louder than words. Until US Congress passes a new supplemental, aid from the US will be minimal since there is very little money left for allotted spending from the previous supplmenetal.

Here are the statistics of US aid by month (in millions of USD):

2022:
Feb 350
March 1000
April 2322
May 250
June 2150
July 1490
August 5305
September 3375
October 1625
November 1200
December 2125

2023:
January 5975
February 4635
March 750
April 2925
May 2175
June 2925
July 2500
August 450
September 1200
October 350
November 525

The supplemental will most likely be passed within two weeks of Congress returning on Nov 28. But it has been two months now of minimal aid while Republicans sabotage the war (and America's own interests) for political gains and favor from the Trump faction.
 

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Support to Ukraine stopped, congrats Russia in no time you will get your revenge.
This is, obviously, sarcasm correct?

Because despite all the "dooming", Ukraine is going to have a $150+ Billion war chest in 2024, substantially higher than they had in either 2022 or 2023. Simultaneously, they'll receive technological upgrades throughout 2024, including, but not limited to....

1. Ground based, long range weapons such as GLSDB.

2. Quantities of drones capable of destroying Russian armor (equivalent to Russian Lancets). Namely Switchblade 600.

3. F-16 fighter jets, with modern weapons such as JASSM, Taurus and AIM-120 AMRAAM, JDAMS, etc.

4. Quantities of M1A1/2 Abrams MBTs.

5. Drone defeating systems such as Skynex, CUAS, Terrahawk Palladin, etc.

Ukraine's biggest shortage is highly trained personnel at this point, to use the sophisticated systems that they are receiving. There will be no lack of funding, nor technological support Ukraine in 2024.
 

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Actions speak louder than words. Until US Congress passes a new supplemental, aid from the US will be minimal since there is very little money left for allotted spending from the previous supplmenetal.

Here are the statistics of US aid by month (in millions of USD):

2022:
Feb 350
March 1000
April 2322
May 250
June 2150
July 1490
August 5305
September 3375
October 1625
November 1200
December 2125

2023:
January 5975
February 4635
March 750
April 2925
May 2175
June 2925
July 2500
August 450
September 1200
October 350
November 525

The supplemental will most likely be passed within two weeks of Congress returning on Nov 28. But it has been two months now of minimal aid while Republicans sabotage the war (and America's own interests) for political gains and favor from the Trump faction.
None of what has happened over the 2 months in Congress has meaningfully slowed down the delivery of aid to Ukraine in any way. The quantity of the items contained in each package has declined, but the delivery schedules of American weapons has not changed. For example, Ukraine received their 31 Abrams MBTs in the September timeline they were promised. They are also on track to receive GLSDB and Switchblade 600 in the "early 2024" timeline that was promised. Many of the deliveries promised to Ukraine are still in front of them. Additional Gepard systems are another example. USA purchased 60 systems from Jordan. Germany is upgrading them as fast as they can. Ukraine will have 30 of the 60 new systems by the winter, and an additional 30 systems throughout 2024.

Meanwhile, while NEWLY promised aid to Ukraine from USA 🇺🇸 has dipped temporarily while a new spending bill is sorted out in Congress, other countries have stepped in temporarily help to fill the void for big ticket items. Some recent examples include Germany 🇩🇪 sending an additional Patriot Battery to Ukraine (bringing their total to 3), Denmark 🇩🇰 and Germany 🇩🇪 sending (in progress) close to 200 Leopard 1 MBTs to Ukraine, and Denmark 🇩🇰 also sending Additional T-72 MBTs and BMP-2 IFVs (via Czech Republic 🇨🇿). We also learned that in September, Finland 🇫🇮 shipped 100+ howitzers to Ukraine, along with the ammunition to support them. Italy 🇮🇹 also shipped more military aid recently, but in typical fashion, did not disclose what they sent. Possibly most important, Norway 🇳🇴 , Belgium 🇧🇪 and the Netherlands 🇳🇱 are going to ship dozens of F-16s to Ukraine and are playing a huge role in training Ukrainian pilots as we speak.

This silly notion that aid for Ukraine has stopped or drastically slowed down, is patently false. They continue to receive all types of ammo resupply from the Americans via aid packages, while Europe has taken over of late in delivering some of the pricier, big ticket items, until more American spending is approved by Congress and countries like Germany 🇩🇪 and Britain 🇬🇧 get into 2024, where they'll have fresh budgets for war spending to aid Ukraine.

USA 🇺🇸 has roughly $5 billion usd worth of Presidential Drawdown Authority that they can take from and about $1.1 Billion usd worth of money to resupply from inventories they ship. That's enough money to keep resupplying Ukraine with ammunition, missiles, explosives, ordinance, artillery shells, etc, etc into February. The new funding bill will be passed well before then and will consist of approximately $60 billion usd worth of drawdown authority, USAI and macro financial funding.
 
Last edited:

Relic

Contributor
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,182
Reactions
10 2,059
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Something to watch for in a future military aid package from USA 🇺🇸. We all know that USA 🇺🇸, Canada 🇨🇦 and Australia 🇦🇺 combined to send Ukraine 190 M777 howitzers in 2022. Since then, as expected, they've faced attrition from Russian drone strikes and counter battery fire. According to the Oryx blog, at least 46 of the M777s have been destroyed, with 34 additional listed as damaged. Some if those will have been repaired in Poland and sent back into conflict. Best estimates are that Ukraine has approximately 120-130 of the M777s sent left in their inventory.

I expect to see USA increase Ukraine's towed howitizer capability considerably with the donation of its retired M198 towed howitzers, the system the M777 replaced. They're being stored in USA right now, but the Americans have no further use for them and with roughly 350 of them in their inventory, you could easily see them send 200 of the older howitzers, canibilizing the remainder for spare parts.

It stands to reason that the reason these older howitzers have not yet been sent is because Ukraine does not possess enough 155mm artillery shells to justify firing them from a system that is inferior to the newer, more accurate M777s. That said, the M198 is still plenty effective, especially at firing cluster shells to destroy infantry and soft targets. USA 🇺🇸 has millions of 155mm cluster shells left and they suit the M198 howitzers perfectly, with their range of 18km-30km (shell type dependent).

Needless to say, as Ukraine focuses on the procurement of more SPGs due to their survivability, rate of fire, and accuracy, towed guns will continue to play a key role in Ukrainian artillery support. It's important to note that access to those guns is not limited, although the quality of the M198 is lesser than the M777, more in line with Soviet Era artillery guns that Russia predominantly uses.
 
Top Bottom