First day was pure shock and awe. Almost everyone thought it would be over quickly. But now that the dust has settled, it is apparent that the Ukrainian Military is still standing and willing to fight. The initial barrage of strikes with cruise and anti-radiation missiles caught Ukraine off guard. They could have capitulated, but surprisingly they haven't.
Seems like many Russian air assets are dropping out the sky, which makes me question their ability to control the airspace in key places such as Kyiv. They know this, and that's why they are sending troops and vehicles into strategic areas, with the hopes of overwhelming Ukraine on the ground. However, troop and AFV losses are heavy as a result of the lack of good air support and aerial reconnaissance.
Russia will likely continue sending in missiles to strike remaining air defences and air fields. Otherwise air support will continue to be costly.
More or less this was wargamed in by ukrainian commanders early.
They knew the bad hand they had been dealt with (by their politicians decision not to arm more intensively and mobilise earlier)....so it (russian shock and awe start) was among the 10 or so situations war gamed...and prepared for.
Along with weaknesses like too small airforce (that take longer to address) gamed in.
They are playing out of manstein's play book IMO....with enough retreat (manstein glove) to draw out logisitical weakness in russian column flanks....and use cities (esp kiev) as somewhat of a shield (like manstein did with fist under the glove).
Ukraine is counting on russia not escalating things to pyrrhic level (w.r.t Kiev) basically in providing this shield.....as a bypass siege would drain russian willpower and resources even more.
Zelensky is trying to negotiate sometime in the interim I heard.....and can do so from reasonable enough terms IMO.....as he can bunker in lviv or further west for sometime and let russian logistics draw out even more in central ukraine or atrophy as they are north of kiev (and become NLAW ripe hunting ground along with whatever guerilla warfare needed).
This has demoralised a lot of russian troops already and it is showing.....
Let us watch kiev for a few more days...this is key area in this phase (given there seems to be about 3 phases russians have planned if you look at the 60k commitment so far out of 200k guys).
And radcial takfiri are everywhere. Refugees in Europe is direct consequence of these stupid regime changes
