Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Australia is sending Ukraine an undisclosed number of SAAB RBS 70 NG air defense systems with laser targeting. These portable SHORAD systems are ideal for intercepting drones and CAS aircraft out to a range of 10km.

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image 🇦🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine will receive a batch of RBS 70 NG with a laser guidance system from Australia.

mastodon.social

 

[blackjack]

• They punched a big hole in the border and seem to be expanding the offensive horizontally towards Sumy.
• Everything on the NATO side seems to indicate poor preparedness and panic; this was completely unexpected and the Ukrainians are getting overrun in many locations.
• The number of forces involved in the offensive has grown significantly in the past 24 hours.
• A dam and several key bridges in the area have been destroyed.
• Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to the area and seem to be panicking; a lot of these reinforcements are simply traveling unprotected and out in the open, leading to many systems being interdicted.
• Bradleys have been spotted in one of the northern flashpoint villages but there were reports that these reinforcements are already being withdrawn.
• Most forces defending these villages are lightly equipped as the heavy units are fighting further in the east.
• Krymky is still a complete dumpster fire.

This is being characterized as one of the worst days for Ukraine in the war so far. If this grows into a full offensive we might very well see things unravel in the coming weeks.

The moral of the story? To everyone's shock, the tried and true method of advertising your offensives with Marvel-style movie trailers turns out to be less effective than striking hard when no one expects you to. Who'd have thought?

 

[Relic]

Germany has proposed to NATO the concept of NATO defending Ukraine's Western airspace from Romania and Poland. The idea is that Western air defense systems and aircraft would intercept Russian drones and missiles launched into Western Ukraine, without crossing into Ukrainian territory. That would then allow Ukraine to focus its air defenses in the Eastern part of the country.

The idea will be discussed over summer meetings, with the idea of getting USA and other key European players to jump on board the initiative.

German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western Ukraine from NATO soil

"Defending the airspace over Ukraine from Poland and Romania should not be ruled out in the long term," said Anton Hofreiter from the ruling Green Party.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Relic]

Canada will purchase approximately 130 IRIS-T air defense missiles from Germany , for Ukraine's IRIS-T SLM and SLS systems. It will cost Canada $76 million dollars to complete the purchase. Each missile will costs between $350,000-$450,000 usd.

The iniative is rumored to be raising funds to provide Ukraine with more than 500 IRIS-T air defense missiles, over a multi-year period.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789270553997520998

 

[Kartal1]

Russian President Putin suggested former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov to replace Sergey Shoigu to the Ministry of Defense within the scope of the formation of the new government.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789727277686706650

 

[Afif]

Russian President Putin suggested former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov to replace Sergey Shoigu to the Ministry of Defense within the scope of the formation of the new government.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789727277686706650

At least Sergey will get to retire through the front door of ministry. Not out of his apartment window.

 

[Relic]

At least Sergey will get to retire through the front door of ministry. Not out of his apartment window.

I expect him to commit suicide soon by poisoning himself, shooting himself 9 times, and falling down a flight of stairs, through a 5th story window.

 

[Afif]

I expect him to commit suicide soon by poisoning himself, shooting himself 9 times, and falling down a flight of stairs, through a 5th story window.

No, he will be appointed as head of Russia's security council.

 

[Gary]

Russia's Kharkiv offensive is a success

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790016157602177238

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790033804494545166

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the battle in the Kharkov region of the reconnaissance and sabotage unit "Kraken" of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The special forces of the GUR "Kraken" came under attack from Russian artillery and decided to retreat using ATVs.

 

[blackjack]

Video probably summarizes the 2 offensives so far.

 

[Relic]

USA National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced today that we can expect to see yet another Presidential Drawdown Authority package for Ukraine in the coming days. The previous one was announced last Friday, however, Sullivan spoke to the importance of getting PDA packages to Ukraine as quickly as possible, as Russia continues its spring / summer offensive.

Sullivan also noted good news from a NATO member (likely Romania ) about the delivery of an additional Patriot Battery to Ukraine.

Germany recently announced that they will be sending an additional Patriot Battery.

Germany recently also announced that Ukraine will be receiving another IRIS-T SLM Battery before the end of May.

Italian media reported that Italy will be sending an additional SAMP/T Battery in the coming weeks.

Slowly, but surely, Ukraine's quality air defense systems are being built up. They are facing attrition among their short range systems near the front (mostly of Soviet design), but their cities and critical infrastructure are seeing an influx of critically important systems around them. Also of note, Ukraine will receive it's first F-16s in less than a month and I suspect they will wind up playing a key role in "top cover" type situations to help intercept incoming missiles and drones. They will effectively serve as airborne air defense units when in a defensive posture.

 

[contricusc]

Slowly, but surely, Ukraine's quality air defense systems are being built up.

I think this is related to the arrival of F16s. The improved air defences will have the role to protect the F16s while on the ground.

 

[Relic]

I think this is related to the arrival of F16s. The improved air defences will have the role to protect the F16s while on the ground.

Most definitely, but it's a compounding effect in the sense that Ukraine will run 24/7 sorties, with additional pilots ready to take on a moment's notice, in order to act as airborne air defense against incoming projectiles.

One F-16 has sufficient pylon capacity to carry 6 AIM-120 AMRAAM and / or AIM-9 Missiles, both of which are used regularly by Ukraine's NASAM systems to intercept drones and cruise missiles. Having 2 pair of F-16s airborne simultaneously gives you 24 extra missiles to defend air space when Russia uses saturation attacks... And they're not going to run out of AIM-120 or AIM-9 either. USA has enormous stockpiles of both and builds thousands more each year. Raytheon is currently increasing production capacity to 1200 AIM-120 and 2500 AIM-9M/X per year.

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[blackjack]

This isnt funny anymore

 

[Packetlight]

View attachment 68001
This isnt funny anymore

I doubt this is real...

 

[Gary]

Slowly, but surely, Ukraine's quality air defense systems are being built up.

Successful interception of Russian missile dropped to 46% on average for both drones and missiles

https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-bombardment-of-ukraine-is-more-lethal-than-ever-afd733c4?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

For Missile it dropped to ~30%

 

[Gary]

Once committed into battle, The F-16 will pit the APG-66v2 against the Khibniy ECM of the SU-35. Interesting stuff to watch and measure Russian EW capability

I hope they soon get into battle.

The French Remora ECM pods from the 1980s managed to blind many Western aircraft from F-14/15/16/18. If the Russians can't repeat this against MLU'd F-16....

Remora pods on an Iraqi MiG-23

 

[blackjack]

Irbis-E got further upgraded to track more targets so the newer su-35s have more advanced radars than Irbis-E but that does not really matter, what matters is what air to air missiles the F-16s will receive assuming Russians blow up specific airfields that are meant for the F-16s?

 

[Relic]

Successful interception of Russian missile dropped to 46% on average for both drones and missiles

https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-bombardment-of-ukraine-is-more-lethal-than-ever-afd733c4?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

For Missile it dropped to ~30%

View attachment 68006

Two huge factors at play there.

1. Ukraine ran low on missile interceptors due to the delay in the U.S. package. That is far less of a problem now.

2. Russia moved away from attempting concentrated strikes on places like Kyiv and Lviv where rationed air defenses remained reasonbly plentiful, and instead increasingly targeted areas of the country with low levels of air defense coverage.

Like Russia (who has seen meaningful damage done to their oil refining innfrastructure) Ukraine simply does not have enough air defense capability to defend the skies over the entire country. Naturally, they have to choose which areas they most heavily defend, and which targets are worth using expensive air defense missiles that are hard to get, to defend.

I expect to see the interception rate trend back into the 70%+ territory with the arrival of additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 air defense systems (Patriot, SAMP/T and IRIS-T), as well as F-16s that will fly top cover over places like Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv.