Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

Smart man, he wants to avoid the same fate of Ukraine

With such moves, he may just hasten his own Maidan moment.

 

[contricusc]

Of course, his calculation was proven wrong as the resistance is much much stiffer than thought.

That’s where the poor strategic vision of Putin has been revealed. He underestimated the situation in Ukraine because he is stuck in his XIV century ways and cannot fully understand the realities of the XXI century.

Anyone with a brain knew that Ukraine will not bend over for Putin, after fighting for eight years against his insurgency in the East, and having had Crimea stolen by him. All his previous actions burnt all the goodwill that Russia enjoyed in Ukriane, so there was no going back to the times of Yanukovych.

He miscalculated and has put Russia in a very bad situation, and he has no way out of it.

The Other great powers with Veto powers don't have any credibility either mate. The UN is a playground for criminals hidden by a supposed legitimacy cloak.

Unfortunately this is mostly true, but so far the other criminals have restrained themselves to some degree by refraining from annexing territories. Russia has now broken the self imposed limitations of Great Powers post WW2, and must be punished for it. Otherwise, we’re going back to a world where empire building is acceptable again.

Putin's military operation is necessary to at least tilt the balance and privileges back to Moscow's favor, however small.

He won’t be able to tilt the balance on his favor by military force. His best chance was by playing the economic game and developing Russia into an advanced and powerful economy, but again, his XIV century mentality was holding him back from being a competent leader in the XXI century.

Germany and Canada are US dogs that's it. They do not have what it takes to be a great power. They're wealthy of course but they're no great power.

I never said they were great power. I only showed you some important Western countries that have less power at the UN than Eastern dictatorships like Russia and China, to reinforce my point that the UN is not a Western institution. The G7 is what a Western institution looks like.

The Russians have made it clear that a DIRECT NATO attack on their troops meant nukes dropping like sugar in New York, Washington, Berlin, London, Paris, etc.

And nobody believes their pathetic bluffing. You see that when ATACMS and Storm Shadows hit their S400 systems with impunity, soon to happen in Russia proper as well.

So there's no such thing as the U.S. dealing with Russia from a position of strength. Had it been the situation, the U.S. would've sent their troops in Ukrainian soil a long time ago.

This is getting comical. When the US is able to destroy the Russian military by simply arming a former Soviet country with old weapons that were ready to expire, you don’t see that as a position of strength?

What the US is doing right now is humiliating for Russia. The Russians are being butchered by US weapons while the US doesn’t even have to put its troops at risk. The Russians are dying in trenches while Americans are debating in Congress how many moe they should kill in the next few months.

What is clear on the other hand is that Putin dealt with Zelensky from the position of strength, and it will be a shame if Putin doesn't use the aggregate advantage of Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine and not pacify the country.

It is not for Putin to decide what happens to Ukraine. Remeber that it is Washington where the fate of Ukraine is decided, and even if Washington may decide to allow Putin a pyrrhic victory, the EU may still have other plans and it will be enough to stop him from achieving his goals.

Time is not on the U.S. side, you simply saw this from a European perspective while I view this affair by positioning myself in a U.S. position. The U.S. problem is not exclusively Ukraine. They're now scrambling to try to stave off China, while fighting mounting insurgents in the Middle East, Africa (Sahel), and Afghanistan from the likes of ISIS and their affiliates.

This is why the US wants to take care of Putin while using the minimum resources. This is why they drip feed the help for Ukraine while putting pressure on their European allies to contribute more and do the heavy lifting.

The US wants to let Europe deal with Putin, so they don’t have to waste their own resources for dealing him.

While the U.S interests is global, Russia is local. Ukraine is literally next door and Russia could put all its effort in that direction, the U.S cannot

What applies for Russia also applies for the EU. So this is a 1v1 between Russia and the EU, with the big difference that the EU also gets help from their big ally across the Atlantic. If you think Russia can outlast the “whatever it takes“ mentality of the EU, you will be very surprised by the outcome of this war.

 

[Gary]

With such moves, he may just hasten his own Maidan moment.

This is why it's imperative for Kobakhidze to cement ties with Russia. We're not sure if the Georgian army is infiltrated or not by pro foreign agents individual hiding behind 'popular movements' to topple the government.

 

[Gary]

That’s where the poor strategic vision of Putin has been revealed. He underestimated the situation in Ukraine because he is stuck in his XIV century ways and cannot fully understand the realities of the XXI century.

Anyone with a brain knew that Ukraine will not bend over for Putin, after fighting for eight years against his insurgency in the East, and having had Crimea stolen by him. All his previous actions burnt all the goodwill that Russia enjoyed in Ukriane, so there was no going back to the times of Yanukovych.

He miscalculated and has put Russia in a very bad situation, and he has no way out of it.

Let me correct that for you:

Anyone with a brain knew that Ukraine hasn't YET bent over for Putin, after fighting for eight years against his insurgency in the East, and having had Crimea stolen by him.​

I must concur, Putin underestimated the will of Ukrainians early in the war. But there's some good news. From the look of it, Ukrainians are losing the grit to fight exponentially after their summer failure last year. We're seeing more and more footage of Ukrainian men either:

1. Dead from trying to cross the river to Romania
2. Getting dragged forcefully, slavery-style, inside vans to be sent to the front

This all led me to believe that they're giving up on whatever belief in victory they had and Russia only needs to keep constant pressure to further collapse their determination. The mentality of winners against odds that the likes of Viet Cong and the Taliban displayed before their victory against all odds is simply not there in the AFU.

He won’t be able to tilt the balance on his favor by military force. His best chance was by playing the economic game and developing Russia into an advanced and powerful economy, but again, his XIV century mentality was holding him back from being a competent leader in the XXI century.

It clearly will, the defeat of Ukraine and the integration of the country into a Russian province will severely degrade the trust in the very order that the world (I mean West) relied upon for the last 30 years. We will see more wars, China invading Taiwan, India v Pakistan, EU broken up etc.

And all this is to Putin's advantage as he is what I would call the "challenger" to the American-led world order.

There have been previous failures on the U.S. side to keep their allies afloat. Think Afghanistan. But never are those defeats against an established state and never are those states a critical part of the White West. A defeat of Ukraine will send the EU's trust on the US into the gutter. We'll likely see infighting in side the EU on where should the organization head towards. France will pursue the hard power, but Germany as usual will detest this. Eastern European country like Poland, Estonia, Romania, Lithuania will be increasingly at odds with the likes of Spain and Italy, because simply put, the biggest threat for those countries are not foreign invasions but illegal immigrations coming from the instability in MENA.

In the long run this rift will destroy the cohesion of Europe, so you could kiss goodbye to the 'whatever it takes' mentality of the EU which doesn't exist in the first place. And Russia will still own much of Ukrainian lands.

This is getting comical. When the US is able to destroy the Russian military by simply arming a former Soviet country with old weapons that were ready to expire, you don’t see that as a position of strength?

The Russian army is 15% larger than it once was at the start of the military operation.

What the US is doing right now is humiliating for Russia. The Russians are being butchered by US weapons while the US doesn’t even have to put its troops at risk. The Russians are dying in trenches while Americans are debating in Congress how many moe they should kill in the next few months.

I concur, it must be hard for Russia to be constantly getting hit by Western-supplied weaponry. But again this will be paid off handsomely once Ukraine capitulates.

Mind to tell you, that before its ascendancy to a superpower after WW2, Russia lost a humiliating war against the Yellow peoples of newly established Imperial Japan, getting gobsmacked by Imperial Germany and even at one point had the presence of foreign troops intervention in its territory. The victory of Moscow at the end of WW2 erased those memories from the public consciousness.

This is why the US wants to take care of Putin while using the minimum resources. This is why they drip feed the help for Ukraine while putting pressure on their European allies to contribute more and do the heavy lifting.

The US wants to let Europe deal with Putin, so they don’t have to waste their own resources for dealing him.

Every politician from either side of the Atlantic would want to finish this as soon as possible. So there's no such thing as the U.S. is feed dripping weapons delivery to force the EU to contribute more, had the US able to, they will surely deliver the weapons. The thing is the U.S. is in no position to give up so many weapons to save Ukraine so freely.

The U.S. simply understands that Ukraine is just one problem from the many problems Washington is facing now and there's clearly a hierarchy on where Ukraine's urgency fits in. You might be thinking that the list goes on (from top priority to lower priority) like this :

1. Ukraine
2. Taiwan
3. Middle East

Based on the aggregate power of US opposition.

But this is simply not the case. AIPAC control in Washington meant that whatever happens, US politicians will prioritize Israel, no matter how unimportant it is. This is why you saw Ukrainian shells getting diverted to Israel at times when arguably Ukraine is the more befitting recipient.

So it's actually like this

1. Middle East
2. Taiwan
3. Ukraine

Yes, Ukraine is in the lowest spot of military assistance priority right now and it will continue that way.

You might be thinking that once the U.S doubled down on munitions production they will be able to satisfy Ukraine's need for ammo, fill up their arsenal for a China fight and continue to support Israel. Anyone who follows the munitions expenditure from the last major conflict (the war against ISIS) would've tell you otherwise.

When the U.S goes to war with IS, at the peak of the war (2016) they dropped so many munitions that CENTCOM must scavenge munitions from all around the world to fight IS troops of around at max 80-100K.

The U.S. military is raiding its smart-bomb stockpiles around the world to continue its nearly two-year-old airstrike campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Pentagon officials said.

Defense Department officials are trying to figure out “how we balance the weapons we have,” U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Brown, the man overseeing the airstrikes, said Thursday.

“What I mean by that is: where do we pull some weapons from that we were saving for other contingencies,” he said. “And do we use them now or do we save them for later?”

The coalition has conducted 12,453 airstrikes in Iraq and Syria since August 2014, according to Operation Inherent Resolve, the task force overseeing the counter-ISIS campaign. More than 8,500 of the strikes have occurred in Iraq and nearly 4,000 in Syria. American warplanes and drones alone have conducted 9,495 of the strikes, with allies accounting for the remaining 2,958. More than 41,697 bombs have been dropped in those strikes. And the U.S. has loaned bombs to allies participating in the strikes.

The US is Raiding its Global Bomb Stockpiles to Fight ISIS

The anti-ISIS coalition has dropped more than 41,500 bombs, leading the Pentagon to borrow from stockpiles in other regions.

www.defenseone.com

Think about it, if the US suffers such a problem fighting a single state, with no outside support, with limited manpower like IS. Then what would it be like for the US to actually fight a peer state like China ? They are all aware of this and not any amount of bullshitting the public on how they're ramping up production could actually satisfy the need of PACOM for a China fight, every single munition they send to Ukraine (and Israel) is one less munition to throw at China.

Then there's the problem of Israel Hamas which will lead to an increasingly radicalized Middle East. Which in turn will compel the U.S to stick to the region trying the futile attempt to stop jihadism in the region.

Islam is by far the biggest threat to Washington and if they were given the choice between directing resources to help Ukraine win fight against Russia OR instead direct it to stave off jihadism in the Middle East, 10/10 they will choose the latter. Simply because they know their ally in the Middle East are not capable enough to fend off jihadists, and a state built on Islamic principles the likes of IS could become a reality if they ever left the Middle East. Just a reminder of what these Jihadists are capable of against a middle eastern state.

Fall of Mosul - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So yes, the U.S is in no position and your attempt to portray the U.S as 'drip feeding' munitions is so far from the truth, I wonder if you actually believed that

 

[contricusc]

I must concur, Putin underestimated the will of Ukrainians early in the war. But there's some good news. From the look of it, Ukrainians are losing the grit to fight exponentially after their summer failure last year. We're seeing more and more footage of Ukrainian men either:

1. Dead from trying to cross the river to Romania
2. Getting dragged forcefully, slavery-style, inside vans to be sent to the front

Remember that the Russian propaganda is actively trying to discredit Ukraine and create the sensation of futility in its resistance and an inevitable defeat. Those footage we’re seeing may just be isolated incidents that the Russian propaganda is presenting as the norm.

There have been plenty of Ukrainians who fled the war early on, including many men, and there have been tragic events when people died trying to cross the mountains in Romania during the late winter even in 2022 when the war just started.

There is no real evidence that suggests Ukrainians have lost the willpower to fight. It is only some anecdotal footage pushed by Russian propagandists that try to lower the morale of Ukrainians and the support Ukraine receives.

This all led me to believe that they're giving up on whatever belief in victory they had and Russia only needs to keep constant pressure to further collapse their determination. The mentality of winners against odds that the likes of Viet Cong and the Taliban displayed before their victory against all odds is simply not there in the AFU.

We shall see about that. What I am seeing is Ukraine getting more and more assertive with its long range strikes deeper and deeper inside Russia, which suggests that Ukrainians are improving their power projection and are confident in their victory.

It clearly will, the defeat of Ukraine and the integration of the country into a Russian province will severely degrade the trust in the very order that the world (I mean West) relied upon for the last 30 years. We will see more wars, China invading Taiwan, India v Pakistan, EU broken up etc.

IF Ukraine is defeated, than yes, you are right, but there is this big “IF“ that still didn‘t happen after two years of war, and I don’t see it happening anytime soon.

A defeat of Ukraine will send the EU's trust on the US into the gutter. We'll likely see infighting in side the EU on where should the organization head towards. France will pursue the hard power, but Germany as usual will detest this. Eastern European country like Poland, Estonia, Romania, Lithuania will be increasingly at odds with the likes of Spain and Italy, because simply put, the biggest threat for those countries are not foreign invasions but illegal immigrations coming from the instability in MENA.

The EU will not allow for the defeat of Ukraine. Getting Ukraine in the EU is one of the natural expansion plans of the union after it swallows the remaining countries in former Yugoslavia. Ukraine is the perfect fit, as it has a big and fertile territory with a relatively small and educated population. It is big enough to matter, and small enough for the EU to be able to swallow it.

And after Russia loses Ukraine for good, the EU will set its sights on Belarus.

Mind to tell you, that before its ascendancy to a superpower after WW2, Russia lost a humiliating war against the Yellow peoples of newly established Imperial Japan, getting gobsmacked by Imperial Germany and even at one point had the presence of foreign troops intervention in its territory. The victory of Moscow at the end of WW2 erased those memories from the public consciousness.

This is nice of you to bring up, because it reminds us what is the outcome of wars for Russia if it is not allied with the UK and the US.

Russia lost to Japan. Russia lost to Germany. Russia would have lost again to Germany if the UK and US were neutral in WW2.

Right now, Germany, Japan, France, UK and the US are on the same side against Russia, and they also have a bunch of other European countries in their team.

Russia has no path to victory. Its nuclear weapons are the only thing than will save them from total humiliation and seeing Western troops marching on Moscow streets.

So it's actually like this

1. Middle East
2. Taiwan
3. Ukraine

Yes, Ukraine is in the lowest spot of military assistance priority right now and it will continue that way.

Yes, unfortunately you are right on this one. The US politicians have their priorities very misplaced.

But Ukraine has other allies as well, and it is by far the top priority for the Europeans.

Then there's the problem of Israel Hamas which will lead to an increasingly radicalized Middle East. Which in turn will compel the U.S to stick to the region trying the futile attempt to stop jihadism in the region.

The US is making a very bad strategic move by supporting Israel in slaughtering the people of Gaza. Let’s say this is their “Putin” moment, when they commit a big foreign policy blunder.

So yes, the U.S is in no position and your attempt to portray the U.S as 'drip feeding' munitions is so far from the truth, I wonder if you actually believed that

They are drip feeding weapons and munitions. Why are ATACMS provided only now after two years of war? They were available two years ago as well, and they could have sent them with the first batch of HIMARS, but they didn’t. And the same happened with many other incremental weapons. The F16s have yet to arrive as well, two years in the war.

The US is trying to boggle Russia into a never ending conflict while mantaining their contributions to the minimum necessary that keeps the stalemate.

There is no will in Washington to defeat Russia. They just want to slowly grind it down while the US MIC reaps record profits.

 

[Gary]

Some small settlements liberated by Russian force last 4 weeks

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794673086102667488

 

[Gary]

Stoltenberg are getting reckless

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794805177322475860

 

[Gary]

Like I said, securing Ukraine is a top national security issue for Russia and it's completely justified from the lens of power politics alone. Putin is just doing what a normal leader MUST do for his country in existential danger.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794497163944399309

 

[Iskander]

On May 26, a drone of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine attacked the Voronezh M long-range target detection radar station located in the city of Orsk, Orenburg region of the Russian Federation, Ukrayinska Pravda reports.

“The Ukrainian drone covered a distance of more than 1,800 kilometers to an enemy target, setting a new record for the range of destruction for kamikaze drones.”

This is the second Russian strategic missile defense facility that has become a target for Ukraine.
Some Russian sites claim that these objects were attacked on orders from the United States!
May be.
These objects are very expensive and so important for the country’s missile defense system that a strike on them, according to Russian military doctrine, could lead to the activate of strategic missilеs with nuclear warheads.

But don't be afraid
Moscow did not officially recognize or react!
Reason: If you admit it, then you need to answer. And this is World War III.
If you remain silent, it means disgracing yourself.
Moscow, it seems, acted uh... wisely.

The photo shows the first target of the attack

 

[Gary]

On May 26, a drone of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine attacked the Voronezh M long-range target detection radar station located in the city of Orsk, Orenburg region of the Russian Federation, Ukrayinska Pravda reports.

“The Ukrainian drone covered a distance of more than 1,800 kilometers to an enemy target, setting a new record for the range of destruction for kamikaze drones.”

This is the second Russian strategic missile defense facility that has become a target for Ukraine.
Some Russian sites claim that these objects were attacked on orders from the United States!
May be.
These objects are very expensive and so important for the country’s missile defense system that a strike on them, according to Russian military doctrine, could lead to the activate of strategic missilеs with nuclear warheads.

But don't be afraid
Moscow did not officially recognize or react!
Reason: If you admit it, then you need to answer. And this is World War III.
If you remain silent, it means disgracing yourself.
Moscow, it seems, acted uh... wisely.

View attachment 68274

This attack against VITAL Russian nuclear defense infrastructure underscores just how important it is for Russia to secure Ukraine at all costs. Simply put, the Russian heartland is vulnerable and this has been known for decades.

Mind to tell you that Russia is the only country with an air force that still operates dedicated interceptors like the MiG-31. Says much about the main goal of the air force which are defensive in nature.

Even when the Moscow Empire stretches all the way to Berlin, the Kremlin realizes its vulnerability from air attack just like this, that's why the Soviet military has 2 distinct air forces :

1. The frontal air force (VVS)
2. The Air Defence Force (PVO)

They need another air force (separate from the usual one) just to secure the sky above it. And it was massive with up to 5000 combat jets at one point. Because from NATO bases in Europe, it would take just minutes and a whole lot less time to respond from an incoming air attack.

When the Soviet Union disintegrated the barrier moved all the way from Berlin to Belarus and Ukraine. And with Ukraine's planned induction into NATO, the situation will only get worse, even worse is the fact that Russia simply can't afford a PVO-style separate air force anymore due to budget constraints.

Like I said, Ukraine is what Korea was to Japan during the reign of Meiji. A dagger pointed at the heart of the nation. It would be stupid for Putin not to secure the country at all costs. Russian military op is completely justified because it is an act of self-preservation and maintaining peace.

What's comical to me is the fact that Russia simply don't learn, their air defense system has been proven vulnerable against slow and low aerial objects as far back as 1987, when German teen, Mathias Rust landed his plane in the Kremlin, bypassing the vaunted Soviet Air Defense.

=============

Ukrainian Su-27P are actually ex-PVO assets

 

[Iskander]

1. The frontal air force (VVS)
2. The Air Defence Force (PVO)

3. Naval aviation
4. Strategic aviation

 

[Gary]

Failure in Ukraine and now failing in Georgia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795024109417517221

 

[Gary]

3. Naval aviation
4. Strategic aviation

You're right, I hereby declare you a think tank analyst.

=====

After Italy, Spain now declaring against NATO weapons against Russia.

Previously I mentioned these 2 countries as an example of diverging interest inside EU when it comes to Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795109082631643634

 

[Soldier30]

Russian military personnel spoke about the use of the ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft artillery mount in Ukraine to combat drones. The ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 3 km.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the impact of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" on the Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled gun "Bogdan" on the T815-7T3RC1 (8x8) chassis. In total, 4 self-propelled guns were destroyed by drones in a week; two more self-propelled guns will also be shown at the end of the video. The Bogdana self-propelled gun comes in four types, on the MAZ-6317, Tatra 815-7, Kraz chassis and with an armored cab from the Ukrainian Armored Vehicles company. Currently, 6 self-propelled guns are produced per month. The Bogdana self-propelled gun has a rate of fire of 5 rounds per minute, a firing range of up to 30 km, and an Excalibur active-missile projectile of up to 50 km. Carryable ammunition - 20 shells. The time to bring the self-propelled gun into combat position is 1.5 minutes. As a result of a strike by the Lancet-51 drone, in the area of the village of Borshchevaya, Kharkov region, a fire started in the Bogdan self-propelled gun that destroyed the installation.

 

[MaciekRS]

"Poland will introduce restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats on its territory due to Moscow's involvement in what it deems a hybrid war against the European Union, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Monday."
"These are national decisions, but we have evidence that the Russian state is involved in authorizing sabotage in our country as well. We hope that the Russian Federation will treat this as a very serious warning," Radoslaw Sikorski told journalists in Brussels."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-introduce-restrictions-movement-russian-diplomats-2024-05-27/

And about weapons use on russian territory so far
To use it to attack russian territory
Uk
Sweden
Poland
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia

To NOT use it (which is SO STUPID, how can you not use weapon on enemy territory, Biden is such a weak president, no wonder russia chose his presidency to strike)
USA
Spain
Germany
Italy

 

[Gary]

He's been there unelected for a week now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795121410446143811

Russia has, previously stated that they won't negotiate with Zelensky as he was seen as an undemocratic illegitimate ruler.

 

[Nilgiri]

"Poland will introduce restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats on its territory due to Moscow's involvement in what it deems a hybrid war against the European Union, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Monday."
"These are national decisions, but we have evidence that the Russian state is involved in authorizing sabotage in our country as well. We hope that the Russian Federation will treat this as a very serious warning," Radoslaw Sikorski told journalists in Brussels."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-introduce-restrictions-movement-russian-diplomats-2024-05-27/

And about weapons use on russian territory so far
To use it to attack russian territory
Uk
Sweden
Poland
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia

To NOT use it (which is SO STUPID, how can you not use weapon on enemy territory, Biden is such a weak president, no wonder russia chose his presidency to strike)
USA
Spain
Germany
Italy

Biden also kept giving mixed signals in the lead up to the war, that if Russia just did a limited operation (say donbass strengthening or some corridor move with crimea etc, who knows what he meant).....there would be limited or no response from US and thus NATO.

Putin definitely took this as a green light signal for his far larger plans.

If clear red lines were communicated, this war may never have happened at all looking back.

The US has since been back-filling (thus the costs material, human and time wise).... this original signalling error by Biden and his admin....and thus the overall timid approach you notice, which I pointed out right as war started (how can you win if russia can fight on your land if you cannot fight on Russian land?).

 

[Relic]

After Russia struck the Zaporizhia airport and destroyed the terminal building recently, Ukraine apparently struck back tonight with an ATACMS strike on the Russian controlled airport in Luhansk. No word as of yet regarding what Russian assets were present at the time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795205023275655246

 

[Relic]

Today Spain confirmed that they will provide Ukraine with 1 Billion Euros worth of military aid in 2024 and 5 Billion Euros through 2027, averaging 1.25 Billion Euros per year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795094857993646247