Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Iskander

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In Mariupol. Living the good life. Far from forced recruitment and senseless dying in trenches.

In Rostov-on-Don, prisoners of pre-trial detention center No. 1 captured two employees of this institution.
They demand a car and a “green corridor”.

This is what is happening next to the «idyll» in Mariupol


Gary, this is apparently a different Russia ;)
 
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Gary

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In Rostov-on-Don, prisoners of pre-trial detention center No. 1 captured two employees of this institution.
They demand a car and a “green corridor”.

This is what is happening next to the «idyll» in Mariupol


Gary, this is apparently a different Russia ;)

Why change topic? Why is it so hard for you to admit that people in Ukraine live better under Russia.

You can hate people but please at least be fair.
 

Iskander

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Why change topic? Why is it so hard for you to admit that people in Ukraine live better under Russia.

You can hate people but please at least be fair.
Agree, this is not a beach theme.
What kind of hatred are you talking about? I'm not at war with anyone. I have a normal attitude towards Russians. My country is generally a strategic partner of Russia.
But let's be fair: Russia attacked a neighboring country for absolutely no reason. This is pure aggression.
Obviously. In terms of better life, life in Russia is better than in Indonesia.
Do you have a suggestion? :unsure:
 

Gary

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Agree, this is not a beach theme.
What kind of hatred are you talking about? I'm not at war with anyone. I have a normal attitude towards Russians. My country is generally a strategic partner of Russia.
But let's be fair: Russia attacked a neighboring country for absolutely no reason. This is pure aggression.

It's not that simple you know. It's not like Russia just decided to go after Ukraine. It's complex business with an even more complex historical background. I felt like people has been unfair to it. If their country is Russia and faced with the same geostrategic situation they would have done the same.


Obviously. In terms of better life, life in Russia is better than in Indonesia.
Do you have a suggestion? :unsure:

Yes this is something that irks me too. Why are they flocking to Indonesia when they could enjoy sunny Mariupol.
 

Iskander

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It's not that simple you know. It's not like Russia just decided to go after Ukraine. It's co mplex business with an even more complex historical background. I felt like people has been unfair to it. If their country is Russia and faced with the same geostrategic situation they would have done the s
The Japanese Prime Minister fears that Putin will send his troops to the East. “Today it is Ukraine, tomorrow it could be East Asia,” Fumio Kishida said in Switzerland.

Colleague, life in Japan is much better than in Russia. Should Japan occupy Russia to improve the lives of Russians?
if I follow your logic, then this is how it should be.

As for Russia's campaign in East Asia, I have to shrug my shoulders because this region is unknown to me.
Is Indonesia part of East Asia?
If so, that's sad.

But don't be sad. If the Russians one day decide to attack your country (astağfurullah!) “to improve life there”, which is what you think they are doing in Ukraine, I will defend Indonesia's position here on the forum. That's for sure. I think that's a fair position, don't you?
You will run through the jungle with a Kalash, to save your country, and I will pray to Allah for you:cry::cry::cry:
 
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Gary

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The Japanese Prime Minister fears that Putin will send his troops to the East. “Today it is Ukraine, tomorrow it could be East Asia,” Fumio Kishida said in Switzerland.

Colleague, life in Japan is much better than in Russia. Should Japan occupy Russia to improve the lives of Russians?
if I follow your logic, then this is how it should be.

Japan is still an occupied country ever since the end of WW2. So I'm not taking Japan seriously here. It is as if I would take the opinion of Milei in regard to situations in Sahel Africa.

Technically if Japan had the political will, they could've liberated Vladivostok and improved the lives of civilians there, but again Japan is a country under military and psychological occupation.

As for Russia's campaign in East Asia, I have to shrug my shoulders because this region is unknown to me.
Is Indonesia part of East Asia?
If so, that's sad.

But don't be sad. If the Russians one day decide to attack your country (astağfurullah!) “to improve life there”, which is what you think they are doing in Ukraine, I will defend Indonesia's position here on the forum. That's for sure. I think that's a fair position, don't you?

Indonesia is SE Asia buddy, and the biggest worry here is not Russia but China.

As for myself, in regards to China, I differ from most Indonesian security watchers, in that I support the military occupation of Taiwan as long as it costs China a lot of life and material. I have no love for either Red China or Blue China. But I do have a special enmity towards democracies 😄


You will run through the jungle with a Kalash, to save your country, and I will pray to Allah for you:cry::cry::cry:

No kidding buddy, as the years go by my faith in :

  1. The country
  2. The military

has been declining year on year. So if war eventually comes (which it will btw), I already have a plan on what I'm going to do. Maybe I should start survival training from now on. Recently I stumbled upon an IG account online detailing how to escape the country via land and sea towards Arabia, maybe I should try that as well LMAO.
 

contricusc

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Somebody tell Meloni about the manpower problem

All Putin fanboys thought that Meloni will be pro-Putin, because she was part of the so called “far right”. She is much more pro-Ukraine than the previous left wing Italian government.

Putinists will have the same surprises with the other “far right” European parties. They think that Le Pen will be pro-Russia, but if she ever wins power, she will most likely act just like Meloni and be more pro-Ukraine than her predecessor.

What if Trump acts the same? Does Putin have an exist strategy if Trump proves to be more hawkish than Biden? It’s a known fact that Trump said at a meeting with donors that if he told Putin not to invade Ukraine and Putin didn’t listen to him, he would have bombed Moscow.

If Trump wins, he will bully the currently weakened Putin, because this is what Trump does best, bully those who are weak to save face. Trump will be under huge mediatic pressure to prove that his is not Putin’s puppet, and the only way to prove the media wrong will be to help Ukraine even more than Biden.
 

contricusc

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No kidding buddy, as the years go by my faith in :

  1. The country
  2. The military

has been declining year on year.

Why? Because Indonesia is a democratic country? You would support your country only if it was ruled by a psychopathic dictator?
 

UkroTurk

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What if Trump acts the same? Does Putin have an exist strategy if Trump proves to be more hawkish than Biden?

Absolutely what if USA leading by Trump, ignited liberal movement in Moldova?
I expect Moldova will liberalise Russian invaded territory and Russian soldiers will be repelled from Dniester.
 

contricusc

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Absolutely what if USA leading by Trump, ignited liberal movement in Moldova?
I expect Moldova will liberalise Russian invaded territory and Russian soldiers will be repelled from Dniester.

Unfortunately Moldova doesn’t have anything resembling an army, so their best bet would be to invite the Ukrainians to liberate Transnistria. They should have done so long time ago.
 

Gary

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All Putin fanboys thought that Meloni will be pro-Putin, because she was part of the so called “far right”. She is much more pro-Ukraine than the previous left wing Italian government.

Putinists will have the same surprises with the other “far right” European parties. They think that Le Pen will be pro-Russia, but if she ever wins power, she will most likely act just like Meloni and be more pro-Ukraine than her predecessor.

What if Trump acts the same? Does Putin have an exist strategy if Trump proves to be more hawkish than Biden? It’s a known fact that Trump said at a meeting with donors that if he told Putin not to invade Ukraine and Putin didn’t listen to him, he would have bombed Moscow.

If Trump wins, he will bully the currently weakened Putin, because this is what Trump does best, bully those who are weak to save face. Trump will be under huge mediatic pressure to prove that his is not Putin’s puppet, and the only way to prove the media wrong will be to help Ukraine even more than Biden.

Yeah, I must admit, she's a wild horse.

As for Trump, credit where it's due, he is not that much controlled by Washington's foreign policy blob, so there's still a tiny likelihood that he's going to reverse Biden's Ukraine policy although not certain.

What I'm looking forward to is how Democrats will react to declining polls vis-a-vis Trump. You know one thing that strikes me from observing at US political system is that for most of its history, there's an unwritten rule that Presidents from Dems and Reps could retire without criminalization afterward. Something that is clearly been breached when it comes to Trump. So there's likely some sort of sabotage efforts by Dems to prevent Trump from winning. IF this is the case it could lead Trumpists to go wild and the U.S will be dragged into fighting an internal conflict between Trumpists and the Anti-MAGA camp.

There could be even another repetition of the Capitol insurrection, which again could be manipulated by Putin to complicate aid to Ukraine. It would be lucky for Putin if things turn into an actual US Civil War II.

Don't under estimate the possibility of Civil War II in the States, if it happens, the US military ceases to be an expeditionary only forces, and those troops will be pulled back home. No US meddling = Ukraine capitulates


Why? Because Indonesia is a democratic country? You would support your country only if it was ruled by a psychopathic dictator?

Democracy is just one problem.

You know, as your knowledge accumulates, at some point you'll get to some sort of conclusion in life and I've reached mine. The way I see it, Indonesian people are under occupation and they haven't yet realized that. Because Indonesians (most of them) don't like to read and busy themselves with stupid affairs.

I was born just X days before Soeharto stepped down from power. I am what we call here, the generation of reforms/reformasi (that is the generation that comes after the New Order regime), so as you might have guessed, my education was crafted after the input from the victorious pro-democracy camp. I remember when I was in elementary and junior watching this is kinda compulsory. Our teachers expects us to be the future upholder of democracy.


From the moment we entered Junior high, the school basically trained future cadres of democracy by creating OSIS where its leader will have to be elected by the students in an election, and then in the university, we will have BEM where again the president of BEM must be elected via election. It's like an indoctrination camp.

Then I went to college, and during this time, I was blessed with ample time to read and figure out what kind of banalities democracies are.

Putin, as many downsides he has is still a better leader for both Russia and Ukraine compared to the representative style government of Ukraine. And that's why I support him, in the end, we support people that are closer to us in value.

One-man rule doesn't equate psychopathic dictator. Umar II if he's alive right now would be classified as a "strongman", "despot" or "a dictator" etc. But during his rule, justice was so much served and wealth accumulated so much that the Zakat (charity) officer of the Umayyad Caliphate found it confusing who they should share the wealth with, because everyone is so wealthy.

It is my life purpose to show people that democracy doesn't always equate justice and one man rule doesn't always equate to psycopanths. Look at Mariupol, what kind of dictators build cities ?
 
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contricusc

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As for Trump, credit where it's due, he is not that much controlled by Washington's foreign policy blob, so there's still a tiny likelihood that he's going to reverse Biden's Ukraine policy although not certain.

The war in Ukraine is very important for the US establishment, as it is part of the long term strategy of containing and weakening Russia. There is no way Trump would be allowed to ruin their plan which is going so well. If Trump will not cooperate (my bet is he will), there is a quick fix for such nasty behavior, as the Kennedys know too well.

Don't under estimate the possibility of Civil War II in the States, if it happens, the US military ceases to be an expeditionary only forces, and those troops will be pulled back home. No US meddling = Ukraine capitulates

There won’t be any civil war in the US. This is just Putin’s wet dream, which is very far from reality. The US institutions are very strong, and any attempt at instigating a civil war will be put down quickly, with imprisonment of the agitators.

What did the Capitol Riots achieve? Long prison terms for those who instigated them. Someone must be totally nuts to try this again.

It is my life purpose to show people that democracy doesn't always equate justice and one man rule doesn't always equate to psycopanths. Look at Mariupol, what kind of dictators build cities ?

Your are focusing too much on the exceptions while ignoring the majority of results. The majority of authoritarian regimes throughout history have been a disaster, characterized by total self-interst of the leaders and brutal supression of the masses. You try to find out the rare exceptions where dictators where actually good for the overall society, and paint it as what authoritarianism is.

Democracies have been much more successful than dictatorships, as you can see in the standard of living and development of the current world, where democratic states dominate by a high margin.

Democracies are also much better at reducing conflict and war, because they have a mechanism to adapt and change with the times and wants of the population, while authoritarian regimes are very rigid and tend to end up in conflict or brutal uprisings.

The Ukrainian conflict will remind you of the harsh reality that democratic regimes are superior to dictatorships, when the democratic world (US, Europe and their allies) will defeat the Russian-Chinese axis of dictatorships.

Too bad so many people will have to die just to remind a dictator like Putin that his country is much weaker than the “decadent” West.
 

Gary

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The war in Ukraine is very important for the US establishment, as it is part of the long term strategy of containing and weakening Russia. There is no way Trump would be allowed to ruin their plan which is going so well. If Trump will not cooperate (my bet is he will), there is a quick fix for such nasty behavior, as the Kennedys know too well.

I have no doubt when it comes to appreciating the magnitude of importance of Ukraine for the US grand strategy. But then again so was South Vietnam.

During the Cold War, the U.S. adopted an all-in approach to save Ukraine the Republic of Vietnam from communist overlordship because they had a common belief that if South Vietnam fell to the communists, then the entire Asia would fall under Communism.

They call it the Domino Theory

VnnT7KZ-asset-mezzanine-16x9-lKhnHec.jpg



We knew that the US entered Viet Nam because of this. But then again from 1965 to 1973, a lot of things happened that finally overturned the blob grand plan in Viet Nam and Southeast Asia. Those 10 years saw the rise of hippie culture, counter-culture, the rise of pacifism, the oil crisis etc etc.

In 1973, when the US and the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam signed the Paris Peace Accord, one of its clauses stated that the US is obligated to replace South Vietnam military equipment on a one-to-one basis + secret Nixon security guarantee in the form of another intervention if North Vietnam fails to cease attack.

In a year the Communists broke their promise, and the US on their part also broke their promise, why? Because of the domestic situation compels them to do so. Nixon had been booted out and Ford was unable to convince Congress to continue because those congressmen relied on popular support to stay in power and the mood in the US is not in favor of continuing the war.

And the rest is history.

dbImage_ID-28526_No-1.jpeg



Putin has a lot of time to figure out how to capitalize on the US domestic problem, MAGA has never been so powerful, and Republicans has shown tendencies to favor him rather than the foreign policy blob. Just like in Vietnam, eventually, US politicians care more about their own asses in congress rather than the US grand strategy globally.

Putin on his part, is a very patient guy.


There won’t be any civil war in the US. This is just Putin’s wet dream, which is very far from reality. The US institutions are very strong, and any attempt at instigating a civil war will be put down quickly, with imprisonment of the agitators.

What did the Capitol Riots achieve? Long prison terms for those who instigated them. Someone must be totally nuts to try this again.

Never say never, the chances are slim, but it doesn't mean it will never happen.


Your are focusing too much on the exceptions while ignoring the majority of results. The majority of authoritarian regimes throughout history have been a disaster, characterized by total self-interst of the leaders and brutal supression of the masses. You try to find out the rare exceptions where dictators where actually good for the overall society, and paint it as what authoritarianism is.

Democracies have been much more successful than dictatorships, as you can see in the standard of living and development of the current world, where democratic states dominate by a high margin.

Democracies are also much better at reducing conflict and war, because they have a mechanism to adapt and change with the times and wants of the population, while authoritarian regimes are very rigid and tend to end up in conflict or brutal uprisings.

The Ukrainian conflict will remind you of the harsh reality that democratic regimes are superior to dictatorships, when the democratic world (US, Europe and their allies) will defeat the Russian-Chinese axis of dictatorships.

Too bad so many people will have to die just to remind a dictator like Putin that his country is much weaker than the “decadent” West.

Democracy is just a Fata Morgana. There's a saying once by (I forget the name):

"If voting could make things actually change, they would criminalize it."​
Democracy for the most part is designed to fool people into believing that they have an actual say whilst everything has been pre-determined from behind closed doors. You yourself admit it when you say:

"If Trump will not cooperate (my bet is he will), there is a quick fix for such nasty behavior, as the Kennedys know too well."​

Most of these unsuccessful non-democracies are Communists and their satellite states, which is just a tiny part of human history. Had the US collapse, you would find their dependencies like Israel, Lithuania, Romania, etc fall into the same misery. In fact most of history's most successful powers are non-democracies. Even the homeland of democracy Athens was destroyed exactly because of democracy.

You look at the various Islamic Caliphates, those are by today's standard an autocratic despot where one man (Caliph) rules over a fuck ton of men solely by decree of god. Yet during Umar II or Harun Ar-Rashid's reign, wealth and justice reached their peak. In the times of Umar II for example, wealth is so abundant that the charity officer of the state would sometimes be confused about where should they distribute the Zakat money when everyone was so wealthy.

And those two I mentioned span hundreds of years, The Umayyad spanned 150 years while the Abbasid spanned 500 years. In comparison, despotic failures like the Soviet Union only lasted less than 80 years. That's clearly the wrong sample to take from the many samples

So if I were to follow history, there seems to be no correlation between being a democracy = wealth + justice on the opposite, the adoption of democracy has created the exact opposite of what democracy promises to its followers. You look at Ukraine, the corruption is enabled by their own democracy, where money and interests from various groups rule the Rada. No wonder that even in the middle of the war, the wealth of Ukrainian 'representatives' exploded exponentially.

Ukrainians will appreciate the benefit of having a simpler political model with a clear hierarchy tahn the jungle of democracy they're having now, but right now they would have to be forced to do so.
 

contricusc

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Most of these unsuccessful non-democracies are Communists and their satellite states, which is just a tiny part of human history. Had the US collapse, you would find their dependencies like Israel, Lithuania, Romania, etc fall into the same misery. In fact most of history's most successful powers are non-democracies. Even the homeland of democracy Athens was destroyed exactly because of democracy.

The old history is dominated by autocratic regimes, which are characterized by stagnation and slow technological progress. All those examples of empires you give as success stories are actually zero growth societies where centuries have passed without any palpable technological and economic progress.

The real breakthroughs of technological development happened in democracies, aka the UK (industrial revolution) and the US (IT revolution).

XX century history shows the dominance of democracies over authoritarian regimes in terms of development and economic stability.

In the current world of instant communication, authoritarian regimes ae extremely vulnerable as they are unable to adapt to changes in the mood of the public, unlike democracies which are always evolving in order to suit the needs and wants of the majority.

It is true that we currently have a few bright dictators that are developing their countries at a good pace, but those are the exact dictators you dislike most (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia). But the majority of dictators are just stupid people like Putin and Xi Jinping, that drag down their countries and stop them from reaching their true potential.

Ukrainians will appreciate the benefit of having a simpler political model with a clear hierarchy tahn the jungle of democracy they're having now, but right now they would have to be forced to do so.

Ukrainians don’t want to go back to the old model of being a vassal state of Russia. They are fighting to get away fromt heir old tormentors, and with the help of the democratic world they will succeed.

There is no way Ukraine will go back to the old pro-Russian ways. Putin lost the country for good with his invasion. He miscalculated and turned a country that was very close culturally to a hardcore enemy. What Putin did is one of the biggest geopolitical blunders seen in decades.

And by invading Ukraine, he also showed Russia’s true colors to all the other satellite states like Belarus, Georgia or Kazakhstan, who will all aspire to get rid of Russia’s influence and join the democratic club of countries that help their friends instead of invading them.
 

Afif

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The old history is dominated by autocratic regimes, which are characterized by stagnation and slow technological progress. All those examples of empires you give as success stories are actually zero growth societies where centuries have passed without any palpable technological and economic progress.

The real breakthroughs of technological development happened in democracies, aka the UK (industrial revolution) and the US (IT revolution).

XX century history shows the dominance of democracies over authoritarian regimes in terms of development and economic stability.

In the current world of instant communication, authoritarian regimes ae extremely vulnerable as they are unable to adapt to changes in the mood of the public, unlike democracies which are always evolving in order to suit the needs and wants of the majority.

I had to jump in here. This is such a wrong evaluation. Correlation is not causation.

There are counter examples, Imperial Germny wasn't democratic.
 

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Norway 🇳🇴 had announced that it donate $103 million usd towards the repair of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Austria 🇦🇹 will donate $10 million to the same initiative. They join a host of other nations that have pledged (over the last two weeks) substantial funding to aid the Ukrainian energy grid.

 
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Relic

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I suspect the $50 Billion usd loan for Ukraine (repaid by interest taken from frozen Russian will be dispersed in the following fashion:

USA 🇺🇸: $20 Billion
Germany 🇧🇪: $5 Billion
Britain 🇬🇧: $5 Billion
Japan 🇯🇵: $5 Billion
France 🇫🇷: $5 Billion
Canada 🇨🇦: $5 Billion
Italy 🇮🇹: $5 Billion

It has already been noted that USA 🇺🇸 will put up, by far, the largest percentage. It's expected, however, that all seven countries will be repaid at the same rate. Each nation will get $400-$500 million per year interest until their portion is paid back. When the first six nations have been paid in full for their chunk of the loan, USA 🇺🇸 will get all of the money each year until their portion of the loan is paid back. Only then can talk of unfreezing Russian assets begin.
 

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