Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

contricusc

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I had to jump in here. This is such a wrong evaluation. Correlation is not causation.

There are counter examples, Imperial Germny wasn't democratic.

If we look at history, democratic societies account for a tiny fraction of the total. Most of the times all countries were autocratic, and even when some democracies existed, they were mostly the minority.

Despite the fact that democracies have a tiny share of global history, they account for some of the greatest advances in science and technology, and are the enablers of the highest growth in the human standard of living.

If we look at the achievements of democracies compared to autocracies, and ponder them with the tiny share of time and population that democracies enjoyed at a historical level, the correlation becomes obvious.

The amount of progress that hapoened in democracies is spectacular considering how few people lived in democracies during the known history, compard to the huge numbers of people living in autocratic regimes.
 

Gary

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The old history is dominated by autocratic regimes, which are characterized by stagnation and slow technological progress. All those examples of empires you give as success stories are actually zero growth societies where centuries have passed without any palpable technological and economic progress.

The real breakthroughs of technological development happened in democracies, aka the UK (industrial revolution) and the US (IT revolution).

XX century history shows the dominance of democracies over authoritarian regimes in terms of development and economic stability.

Science doesn't bend or calibrate itself to the political models in any particular country. Physics works the same way whether you are in the UK or North Korea.

The dome and trebuchet were typical of the Romans, did later Muslim conquerors adopt the Roman law and political model when they were trebucheting settlements in Anatolia or building domes in Baghdad? the answer is no.

The industrial revolution might come from the West, but that doesn't mean that their political model is superior. Back in the day, the Europeans would mock Asians as "monkey see monkey do" because this is exactly what many in Asia did out of awe of the Europeans in the XIX and early XX centuries. Many would even force the adoption of Western clothing and the alphabet. Japan is an exception, the Japanese did not force its people to dump the kanji and adopt the alphabet. Yet, for most of the XX century, they're the only advanced nation in Asia and their defeat in WWII is not because democracies are a superior form of government, but because the Japanese simply had a bad gamble.

The Chinese (PRC) would've not reached greatness if the Tianmen students had been successful in their attempt to bring Western-style democracy to China.



In the current world of instant communication, authoritarian regimes ae extremely vulnerable as they are unable to adapt to changes in the mood of the public, unlike democracies which are always evolving in order to suit the needs and wants of the majority.

It is true that we currently have a few bright dictators that are developing their countries at a good pace, but those are the exact dictators you dislike most (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia). But the majority of dictators are just stupid people like Putin and Xi Jinping, that drag down their countries and stop them from reaching their true potential.

There's no correlation between non-democracies and how a country adapts to challenges, basically, a government is put in charge of running the state of affairs, and they are to come up with policies that will best suit the country and the people as a tax base in tackling the challenges.

In a democracy, this is a multi-billion industry where corporations, oligarchs and big money will push for their interests to be included in those policies, even though it will harm public interests and to justify that they fool the world by portraying such exercise as "the will of the people" and the minions charged with passing their interests are termed "representatives" or in Ukraine's case " servant of the people"

No wonder our little man of democracy chose it as his movie title, did Igor Kolomoysky give him the title?:oops::D

p14119020_b_v8_aa.jpg


On the other hand, traditional political models often place a single sovereign in charge. This leader is typically assisted by a group of skilled advisors (statesmen). However, to prevent abuse of power, these models often have a legal framework in place, sometimes based on religious law like Sharia. This is a very efficient model of governance that led empires in the past to reach their zenith and span for hundreds of years. They don't spend billions in wealth just to pass things like the ban on smoking.

Democracy creates (most of the time) ironies. Indonesia is piss poor country where people struggle to make a living. Yet, I was shocked when I learned that we spent billions of Rupiah every 5 years so that those piss poor people could vote in ballot boxes. I'm talking about priorities here.


Ukrainians don’t want to go back to the old model of being a vassal state of Russia. They are fighting to get away fromt heir old tormentors, and with the help of the democratic world they will succeed.

There is no way Ukraine will go back to the old pro-Russian ways. Putin lost the country for good with his invasion. He miscalculated and turned a country that was very close culturally to a hardcore enemy. What Putin did is one of the biggest geopolitical blunders seen in decades.

And by invading Ukraine, he also showed Russia’s true colors to all the other satellite states like Belarus, Georgia or Kazakhstan, who will all aspire to get rid of Russia’s influence and join the democratic club of countries that help their friends instead of invading them.

I know that is why the Russian military operation commenced in the first place. They're not going to change themselves so Russia will change it for them.

Ukraine is like a spoiled brat, and a spoiled brat rarely knows what is right or wrong.
 

Iskander

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... I already have a plan on what I'm going to do. Maybe I should start survival training from now on. Recently I stumbled upon an IG account online detailing how to escape the country via land and sea towards Arabia, maybe I should try that as well LMAO.
"Escape from the Country"?
The Chinese will come to Indonesia, kill and destroy everything around you, and you will run away? Did I understand you correctly?
If so, then why are you disgracing Ukrainian deserters fleeing the war?
But even if the
Russians come, and not the Chinese, I still don’t see the point in running. After all, you are here convincing everyone that the Russians are invading Ukraine only for the benefit of the stupid Ukrainians themselves. Then why do you need to flee to some Arabistan?:)
Or did I misunderstand you?
If you decided to stay and fight the damned invaders, then you guessed correctly, I understand something about this matter :cool:
But if you still decide to run, then on this issue you need to contact Hosein Bolt, world running champion :ROFLMAO:
 
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Gary

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"Escape from the Country"?
The Chinese will come to Indonesia, kill and destroy everything around you, and you will run away? Did I understand you correctly?
If so, then why are you disgracing Ukrainian deserters fleeing the war?
But even if the
Russians come, and not the Chinese, I still don’t see the point in running. After all, you are here convincing everyone that the Russians are invading Ukraine only for the benefit of the stupid Ukrainians themselves. Then why do you need to flee to some Arabistan?:)
Or did I misunderstand you?
If you decided to stay and fight the damned invaders, then you guessed correctly, I understand something about this matter...
But if you still decide to run, then on this issue you need to contact Hosein Bolt, world running champion :ROFLMAO:

If I were to die, I would at least die for the ideology and political model I believe in. See, the last 2 years have had a profound impact on me, as my knowledge accumulates and wisdom comes, I found less and less taste in these two:
  1. Democracy
  2. Nation states
If I were to find Indonesia under attack, it would likely be from a very strong country that excels in modern warfare (US, China) and as I said before, I have very little faith in the Indonesian military ability to tackle them. That means we're talking about Indonesia losing a significant part of its land if not outright capitulation of Jakarta.

From what I understand when Baghdad fell to the Americans, the Iraqi resistance was basically divided into two. The Sunni militants, and the Shia militants. Indonesia is likely going to face the same once it capitulates. We'll see people's resistance gather around their kin (and religion). And Indonesia is so diverse. We're talking about 5 major recognized religions, hundreds of ethnic groups, hundreds of competing political models,etc.

In this situation, I will likely join the group closest to me in political view and if I fail to find one, I'll just move (hopefully to Arabia)...simple. I certainly won't join any resistance movement that screams "Viva Democracy", or " Biji Women's rights" etc.

Why do I disgrace the Ukrainians? Because it's them who screams "I want democracy, freedom blah blah". But when its time to defend those freedom and democracy they fled to Romania.

 
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Iskander

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If I were to die, I would at least die for the ideology and political model I believe in. See, the last 2 years have had a profound impact on me, as my knowledge accumulates and wisdom comes, I found less and less taste in these two:
  1. Democracy
  2. Nation states
If I were to find Indonesia under attack, it would likely be from a very strong country that excels in modern warfare (US, China) and as I said before, I have very little faith in the Indonesian military ability to tackle them. That means we're talking about Indonesia losing a significant part of its land if not outright capitulation of Jakarta.

From what I understand when Baghdad fell to the Americans, the Iraqi resistance was basically divided into two. The Sunni militants, and the Shia militants. Indonesia is likely going to face the same once it capitulates. We'll see people's resistance gather around their kin (and religion). And Indonesia is so diverse. We're talking about 5 major recognized religions, hundreds of ethnic groups, hundreds of competing political models,etc.

In this situation, I will likely join the group closest to me in political view and if I fail to find one, I'll just move (hopefully to Arabia)...simple. I certainly won't join any resistance movement that screams "Viva Democracy", or " Biji Women's rights" etc.

Why do I disgrace the Ukrainians? Because it's them who screams "I want democracy, freedom blah blah". But when its time to defend those freedom and democracy they fled to Romania.

What does this have to do with democracy or dictatorship? These are just methods of government. If your neighboring country is not
aggressive Armenia with its exorbitant ambitions, not Iran with its officially declared plans to export the so-called Islamic revolution, and not Russia with its crocodile appetites, then democracy is most suitable.

During the Roman Republic, in case of war, in order to effectively manage resources, they usually elected... a dictator.
But if you live surrounded by good and respectable neighbors, as in Europe now, then...

You must fight for your country, regardless of the presence or absence of democracy.
These concepts are changeable.
But Motherland! How will you change this? flee to Arabia?
 
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contricusc

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Democracy creates (most of the time) ironies. Indonesia is piss poor country where people struggle to make a living. Yet, I was shocked when I learned that we spent billions of Rupiah every 5 years so that those piss poor people could vote in ballot boxes. I'm talking about priorities here.

Democracies have many flaws. They are far from perfect. But their main strength is that they don’t allow too much power to accumulate under a single person or family. By doing this, they prevent the most henious crimes and abuses and result in a more stable society.

Democracies also have the big advantage of allowing every person the right to support the opposition and express his/her dissatisfaction with the people in power by voting against them. This reduces the tension in society and reduces the radicalism of its members.

This is why you don’t get many violent uprisings in democratic countries. People can wait for the voting day if the majority of the population is against the current rulers. They don’t need to rebel and tear the country down.

You see, in democratic countries like the UK or France, when the people in power see that their legitimacy has declined too much, they even call for early elections to allow the people to have their say. This way, there will never be enough tension in society to result in civil war or violent revolutions, like it usually happens when authoritarian regimes come to an end.

Ukraine is like a spoiled brat, and a spoiled brat rarely knows what is right or wrong.

Russia is the spoiled brat, and NATO will put them in their place.
 

Gary

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Democracies have many flaws. They are far from perfect. But their main strength is that they don’t allow too much power to accumulate under a single person or family. By doing this, they prevent the most henious crimes and abuses and result in a more stable society.

Democracies also have the big advantage of allowing every person the right to support the opposition and express his/her dissatisfaction with the people in power by voting against them. This reduces the tension in society and reduces the radicalism of its members.

This is why you don’t get many violent uprisings in democratic countries. People can wait for the voting day if the majority of the population is against the current rulers. They don’t need to rebel and tear the country down.

You see, in democratic countries like the UK or France, when the people in power see that their legitimacy has declined too much, they even call for early elections to allow the people to have their say. This way, there will never be enough tension in society to result in civil war or violent revolutions, like it usually happens when authoritarian regimes come to an end.



Russia is the spoiled brat, and NATO will put them in their place.
This is bullshit, you yourself said in your own words:

If Trump will not cooperate (my bet is he will), there is a quick fix for such nasty behavior, as the Kennedys know too well.

We all know that democracies only create the illusion of mass participation, but behind this are people of power, corporations, big money, secret societies, and oligarchs that pull the strings and punish people who don't follow their whims.


What does this have to do with democracy or dictatorship? These are just methods of government. If your neighboring country is not
aggressive Armenia with its exorbitant ambitions, not Iran with its officially declared plans to export the so-called Islamic revolution, and not Russia with its crocodile appetites, then democracy is most suitable.

During the Roman Republic, in case of war, in order to effectively manage resources, they usually elected... a dictator.
But if you live surrounded by good and respectable neighbors, as in Europe now, then...

You must fight for your country, regardless of the presence or absence of democracy.
These concepts are changeable.
But Motherland! How will you change this? flee to Arabia?

I never said I wouldn't fight. I would fight but I'm a bit picky about whom I will fight shoulder to shoulder with.

As I said, if Indonesia is invaded, I wouldn't count on the national army to hold for long. If the army fails, the government capitulates, If the government capitulates, the army will be disbanded by a victorious enemy then everyone will fend off the enemy for themselves. We will likely see the Middle East situation where militias will be formed and these militias will represent their own:

  1. Ethnicity
  2. Religion'
  3. Political model
As I said, Indonesia is a very diverse country. We have 5 recognized religions, hundreds of ethnic groups, and multiple competing political goals (Islamists, Secularists, Communists, etc etc).

I will pick my choice, and if I can't find one I'll take it as a lost cause and pack and leave. I will not repeat the mistakes of the War of Independence, where Muslims died in droves so that the country gained independence so that Communists and later American agents took over the country. I basically have one life, make it count.

I wouldn't be like those Ukrainians dying in trenches so that Blackrock could take over their country.

But Motherland! How will you change this? flee to Arabia?

I reject the concept of Westphalian-modeled nation-states. I reject the concept of fixed borders.

Maybe one of the reasons I support Putin is because he basically trampled those Westphalian-derived agreements about fixed national borders. I do not see Arabia as a country but just as a piece of land where I could enter or exit
 

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And i honestly admire Gary and Blackjacks hundred of posts desperately trying to put a positive spin on the most incredible military misadventure since the 1930s and 1940s.
I would say it's more in the order of tens of thousands.

For quite a while I read this thread without being a member of the forum because there was a lot of useful information. But at some point those two started to hijack this thread and the thread was unreadable, so many bullshit mixed in. That is when I became a member of the forum and added them to my ignore list. The thread became useful and informative again.

And that is what I suggest to anybody else. Use your ignore list and move on. Your life will be so much better !!! Just ignoring a couple members and all the crap is gone, its almost magical.

By the way, I would like to thank all the posters that contribute to this thread with useful information, its one of my reference points for information on this war.

Best.
 

Gary

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For quite a while I read this thread without being a member of the forum because there was a lot of useful information. But at some point those two started to hijack this thread and the thread was unreadable, so many bullshit mixed in. That is when I became a member of the forum and added them to my ignore list. The thread became useful and informative again.

Good to know, looks like you're new. Because since 2022, this thread is basically just a dumping ground for Twitter posts. I brought the discussion...into the forum.

So yeah help yourself, not all opinions are designed to please people.
 

UkroTurk

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1️⃣ NATO is negotiating to bring nuclear weapons into combat readiness and deploy more of them in the face of the growing threat from Russia and China. This was stated by Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Putin may give an order to use tactical nuclear weapons if the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine, said Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexander Litvinenko

 
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Relic

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India 🇮🇳 and USA 🇺🇸 are now in the advanced stages of securing a multi-billion deal that will see India purchase and assemble 2000 Stryker AFVs. Why is this relevant to this thread? Because the Strykers will replace 2400'ish Russian origin BMP-2s.

India has already canceled orders for the following:

48x MI-17 V5 helicopters
10x KA-31 helicopters
85x SU-30MKI (upgrades)
??x Mig-29s (to replace Mig-21 trainers)

India 🇮🇳 is set to purchase more than $100 Billion of new military equipment over the next decade. Russian / Soviet equipment currently makes up 60% of Russian military inventories, but no new large scale purchases or upgrade programs are expected in the near future. Instead, India is turning to the West. The deal to procure 2000 American made Strykers is one example. India and France 🇫🇷 are also in negotiations for French made jets to start replacing India's MIGs.

The loss of such a large export partner will further hurt the Russian economy as the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 rages on. Russia exports $15'ish Billion usd worth of military equipment each year. India has been Russia's 3rd-4th largest military export partner for some time.

 

contricusc

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This is bullshit, you yourself said in your own words:

If Trump will not cooperate (my bet is he will), there is a quick fix for such nasty behavior, as the Kennedys know too well.

We all know that democracies only create the illusion of mass participation, but behind this are people of power, corporations, big money, secret societies, and oligarchs that pull the strings and punish people who don't follow their whims.

The illusion is very important, because it reduces tensions in society and keeps people less angry.

Also, while democracoes have many flaws (I said this many times), they still generate change when the electorate demands it. If Trump wins the election for example, he won’t be able to do whatever he wants, and when it comes to strategical decisions like the war in Ukraine, he will be forced to continue the establishment’s work. But he will still be able to change many other things in a way that will make his followers happy, and they will not feel their victory was in vain. They will also get the satisfaction when they will see the supportrs of the Democratic party lament Trump’s win.

Voting can bring change in a democracy, but not as brutal and radical as much as some people would like. This is also part of the reason why democracies are stable, because changes are slow and gradual.

I reject the concept of Westphalian-modeled nation-states. I reject the concept of fixed borders.

Maybe one of the reasons I support Putin is because he basically trampled those Westphalian-derived agreements about fixed national borders. I do not see Arabia as a country but just as a piece of land where I could enter or exit

You are a big fan of ethnic and sectarian wars I guess. Because this is what always happens when the concept of fixed borders is disbanded.

Or maybe you are a fan of the EU 🤣
 

Gary

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The illusion is very important, because it reduces tensions in society and keeps people less angry.

Also, while democracoes have many flaws (I said this many times), they still generate change when the electorate demands it. If Trump wins the election for example, he won’t be able to do whatever he wants, and when it comes to strategical decisions like the war in Ukraine, he will be forced to continue the establishment’s work. But he will still be able to change many other things in a way that will make his followers happy, and they will not feel their victory was in vain. They will also get the satisfaction when they will see the supportrs of the Democratic party lament Trump’s win.

You basically admit that democracy is just a giant fraud. There's simply no difference between your explanation with the supposed social contract between Putin and the Russians.
Felt sad for those AFU men and women, dying in trenches so that the circus of elites could stay that way.

Simply put if Putin allows Russians to vote as long as it didn't present any challenge to him, then it will be allowed. Similarly "democracy" allowed some semblance of mass particiation as long as it didn't present any challenge to those gentlemen in the backdoor (elites, oligarchs, big money etc)




You are a big fan of ethnic and sectarian wars I guess. Because this is what always happens when the concept of fixed borders is disbanded.

Or maybe you are a fan of the EU 🤣

Umm maybe, I actually just started to adopt this kind of political thinking recently. Because it just make sense.
But imo, I don't think I'm the ethnic war guys, I'm more like the sectarian one. I don't have any preference when it comes to skin color but I do have strong preference on values that is similar to mine.
 

Gary

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Why do we even attend this shit show


JAKARTA, KOMPAS — A total of 80 countries agreed to a joint communiqué at the Ukraine Peace Summit which took place in Burgenstock, Switzerland. Indonesia was one of the countries that did not sign, along with Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, India, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates and Brazil who were present as observers. Russia's absence is an obstacle.
 

Gary

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Btw, becoz the West really like democracy.

Just some fact from the Ukrainian summit:

-4 out of 5 World's largest 'democracies' didn't sign the joint communique. With only the US (totally predicted) signing it.
-the combined population of those 4 outstrip the rest that signed (the usual club)
-More than half of ASEAN didn't attend

I guess people are having enough of this Western game of political gimmick. It's getting boring and useless.
 

Relic

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You basically admit that democracy is just a giant fraud. There's simply no difference between your explanation with the supposed social contract between Putin and the Russians.
Felt sad for those AFU men and women, dying in trenches so that the circus of elites could stay that way.

Simply put if Putin allows Russians to vote as long as it didn't present any challenge to him, then it will be allowed. Similarly "democracy" allowed some semblance of mass particiation as long as it didn't present any challenge to those gentlemen in the backdoor (elites, oligarchs, big money etc)






Umm maybe, I actually just started to adopt this kind of political thinking recently. Because it just make sense.
But imo, I don't think I'm the ethnic war guys, I'm more like the sectarian one. I don't have any preference when it comes to skin color but I do have strong preference on values that is similar to mine.
Which social contract between Putin and the Russians?

The one in which he and the oligarchs rob the country blind and are some the world's richest people, while 22% of Russians don't have indoor plumbing in 2024? The average salary in Russia is approximately $15,000 usd per year, less than 1/4 of the average salary in America.

How about the one in which the average life expectancy of a Russian is approximately 69 years old. Nearly a decade less than Westerners due to the poor healthcare system in place and the lack of access to quality food that many Russians, especially those living in rural areas have?

How about the one in which at any time you climb the ranks of society you automatically become the target of assassination and / or life inprisonment if you do anything that the oligarchs disapprove of? Hell, you don't even have to do anything wrong. They'll shoot you in the head 3 times and throw you out a multi level window (then claim it was suicide) if they need a scapegoat for corruption.

How about the one in which Putin's cronies poison, threaten, cheat, jail and ultimately assassinate any political challenger that gains notoriety in the country and they jail, beat and breakup any protest or rallies in support of another candidate?

The West has its share of problems, but Russia, the most mineral rich country on the planet, has deplorable standards of living for their average citizen, because of some of the world's most significant top down corruption. Russia is a shithole.
 

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