Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[blackjack]

Guess the war won't escalate much if this is what they are doing back.

 

[blackjack]

Economy News on Russia

 

[Spitfire9]

Economy News on Russia
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Interesting to read that the Bank of Russia is using an exchange rate of $1 = 103.79 rubles today when the rest of the world is using 105+. Anyone going to buy rubles from Russia when they can buy cheaper in the free market?

Just checked, $1 = 105.777 rubles right now. The ruble in your pocket is worth 1.7% less now than it was yesterday. 10% fall in the last week is more than what I call a slide.

I wonder what your central bank governor will be doing with your interest rate in the next few days.

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Just checked again. The ruble in your pocket is worth 2.6% less now than it was yesterday.

Time to hike the bank rate again? The Bank of Russia does not have an infinite amount of foreign currency to buy rubles to raise its value. Russia needs foreign currency to buy things from foreign suppliers because they don't want to be paid in rubles.

 

[Iskander]

NATO Parliamentary Assembly calls on alliance members to provide Kyiv with medium-range missiles, including Tomahawk​

«We are talking about missiles with a range of 1000-5500 kilometers, capable of striking deep into Russian territory and hitting strategically important objects. Among the weapons of this class, in particular, are the American Tomahawk».

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en.topwar.ru

P.S. А Томагавков у Америки больше, чем у дурака махорка

 

[Spitfire9]

Ti

NATO Parliamentary Assembly calls on alliance members to provide Kyiv with medium-range missiles, including Tomahawk​

View attachment 72346

«We are talking about missiles with a range of 1000-5500 kilometers, capable of striking deep into Russian territory and hitting strategically important objects. Among the weapons of this class, in particular, are the American Tomahawk».

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en.topwar.ru

P.S. А Томагавков у Америки больше, чем у дурака махорка

Time to let Ukraine hit military targets in Russia, isn't it? Russia's weapons suppliers North Korea and Iran do not dictate that their weapons are only used against occupied Russia (Kursk), not against Ukraine.

 

[Huelague]

On the battlefront Ukraine continues losing ground day by day. On the economic front Russia continues losing ground day by day.

Both sides are losing.

Billing is always at the end.

 

[blackjack]

Interesting to read that the Bank of Russia is using an exchange rate of $1 = 103.79 rubles today when the rest of the world is using 105+. Anyone going to buy rubles from Russia when they can buy cheaper in the free market?

Just checked, $1 = 105.777 rubles right now. The ruble in your pocket is worth 1.7% less now than it was yesterday. 10% fall in the last week is more than what I call a slide.

I wonder what your central bank governor will be doing with your interest rate in the next few days.

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Just checked again. The ruble in your pocket is worth 2.6% less now than it was yesterday. Time to hike the bank rate again?

They still have to beat March 2022, Weird their GDP has a 2 % growth expected in 2025.

«We are talking about missiles with a range of 1000-5500 kilometers, capable of striking deep into Russian territory and hitting strategically important objects. Among the weapons of this class, in particular, are the American Tomahawk».

https://en.topwar.ru/254483-parlamentskaja-assambleja-nato-prizvala-chlenov-aljansa-predostavit-kievu-rakety-srednej-dalnosti.html
P.S. А Томагавков у Америки больше, чем у дурака махорка

As desperate as they are getting are they going to actually hit loaded airbases this time?

 

[Iskander]

Ti

Time to let Ukraine hit military targets in Russia, isn't it? Russia's weapons suppliers North Korea and Iran do not dictate that their weapons are only used against occupied Russia (Kursk), not against Ukraine.

But the Russians don't want an escalation of the conflict... In their opinion, starting a military actios in a neighboring state, killing its citizens, turning its cities into ruins, hitting it with an intercontinental ballistic missile - that's not a war, that's just a conflict. But if you hit Russia with Tomahawks, that's already a war
The Russians don't want a war

 

[Spitfire9]

They still have to beat March 2022, Weird their GDP has a 2 % growth expected in 2025.

March 22: because of the shock of Russia invading Ukraine and the uncertainty it produced, ruble holders unloaded rubles. Bank of Russia stepped in, raised interest rate to 20% as an emergency measure, started buying rubles.

GDP may grow 2% in 2025. It does not produce wealth, though making things that are then destroyed. That is what some would term 'bad GDP'.

 

[blackjack]

But the Russians don't want an escalation of the conflict... In their opinion, starting a military actios with a neighboring state, killing its citizens, turning its cities into ruins, hitting it with an intercontinental ballistic missile - that's not a war, that's just a conflict. But if you hit Russia with Tomahawks, that's already a war
The Russians don't want a war

56 days left.

March 22: because of the shock of Russia invading Ukraine and the uncertainty it produced, ruble holders unloaded rubles. Bank of Russia stepped in, raised interest rate to 20% as an emergency measure, started buying rubles.

GDP may grow 2% in 2025. It does not produce wealth, though making things that are then destroyed. That is what some would term 'bad GDP'.

so we are going to wait a long ass time until we see an economic drop which by than this war will be over the way it is going.
Russia is running out of missiles to.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the Russian BMD-4M airborne combat vehicle in Ukraine, long-range fire. The combat work of the BMD-4M is practically not shown, the video was filmed in the Zaporizhia direction. The BMD-4M is shelling Ukrainian strongholds located in forest belts. Fire is conducted from a 100-mm 2A70 gun and a 30-mm 2A72 automatic gun at a long distance. It is worth noting that the BMD-4M has no protection against drones, which is quite risky these days. The BMD-4M crew is three people. The video is shortened.

 

[blackjack]

Getting to the Dniepr is like getting to the half-line point of Ukraine which might complicate long range strikes.

 

[Spitfire9]

so we are going to wait a long ass time until we see an economic drop which by than this war will be over the way it is going.
Russia is running out of missiles to.

The economic drop has not been very visible to most Russians. They have seen higher pay due to a shortage of labour, some have received large amounts of compensation for deaths and injuries in Ukraine, some have received large bonuses to sign up for the army, some (I guess) are receiving very high pay in the arms industry. I imagine that most Russians feel very well off at the moment and are unaware of the economic problems of their country. But... there are serious economic problems that are starting to appear. How serious they are and are likely to become is difficult to predict, since a lot of economic statistics are no longer available or cannot be trusted. The economic data that are available, that can be trusted, look bad and look like they are getting worse.

I guess that Putin senses that he needs Russia to stop fighting this 3 day / 3 week walkover of a war sooner rather than later. He may have spent half what was in the national wealth fund by now, so things will get harder as that starts to run low.

The reason I discuss Russia's economy is that I think it is what influences most the likely outcome of the war (apart from the election of Trump).

 

[blackjack]

The economic drop has not been very visible to most Russians. They have seen higher pay due to a shortage of labour, some have received large amounts of compensation for deaths and injuries in Ukraine, some have received large bonuses to sign up for the army, some (I guess) are receiving very high pay in the arms industry. I imagine that most Russians feel very well off at the moment and are unaware of the economic problems of their country. But... there are serious economic problems that are starting to appear. How serious they are and are likely to become is difficult to predict, since a lot of economic statistics are no longer available or cannot be trusted. The economic data that are available , that can be trusted, look bad and look like they are getting worse.

I guess that Putin senses that he needs Russia to stop fighting this 3 day / 3 week walkover of a war sooner rather than later. He may have spent half what was in the national wealth fund by now, so things will get harder as that starts to run low.

The reason I discuss Russia's economy is that I think it is what influences most the likely outcome of the war (apart from the election of Trump).

Some people are suggesting the drop in the rubbles is a good idea.

I am still hearing continued talks with Turkey being their gas hub for Europe and from the looks of things they might turn off the war economy and then switching back since things might escalate more quickly to either a peace deal or faster collapse for Ukraine since mobilizations laws keep getting passed around.

 

[blackjack]

 

[Spitfire9]

Some people are suggesting the drop in the rubbles is a good idea.
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I am still hearing continued talks with Turkey being their gas hub for Europe and from the looks of things they might turn off the war economy and then switching back since things might escalate more quickly to either a peace deal or faster collapse for Ukraine since mobilizations laws keep getting passed around.

I have read the same. It is theorised (could be true) that Russia is happy to let the ruble fall since more rubles will be obtained from settlement of export contracts made in foreign currency (eg crude oil contracts). I imagine that this step would be temporary and would lead to increased inflation but, to offset that burden on Russian citizens, interest rates might not be raised since the objective would be for the ruble to be weak.

Of course, I may be completely wrong!

 

[blackjack]

good luck

Joke: They will have to divide some of that money to Israel if they want the republicans in the house and senate to pass it.

 

[Spitfire9]

1,000 days into the conflict, the US takes off the handcuffs that have prevented Ukraine from striking 'the archer' firing arrows at it from Russian soil...

On Monday, The New York Times broke the news that U.S. President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles at targets inside Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promptly vowed that the missiles would “speak for themselves.”

Hours later, a Ukrainian army battery launched eight 3,700-pound Army Tactical Missile System rockets—each packing up to a thousand grenade-powered submunitions—at a sprawling Russian ammunition arsenal in Karachev, a city in Bryansk Oblast 60 miles north of the Russia-Ukraine border.

The early-morning strike, which left the arsenal in flames, was just the beginning of what could be a powerful campaign of deep strikes aimed at Russian forces and their command and supply infrastructure in and around Kursk Oblast in western Russia.

Ukrainian Bombers Fire 10 Bunker-Busting Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles At Russian Commanders

The strike in Russia’s Kursk Oblast comes two days after allied approval for raids on Russian soil.

www.forbes.com

 

[Soldier30]

Video of the use in the Kursk region of the Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky", controlled by a fiber optic cable. In the video, the FPV drone "Vandal" attacks the Ukrainian IFV "Marder" 1A3. Made in Germany. The IFV "Marder" was adopted by Germany in 1971. Ukraine received about 90 units of the IFV Marder 1A3. The IFV Marder 1A3 is a modification of 1989. Technical information is on the channel. The IFV Marder 1A3 is already in the Russian army. As a result of the strike of the FPV drone "Vandal", the IFV Marder 1A3 was damaged, the extent of the damage is unclear. The Ukrainian IFV Marder 1A3 was attacked by two drones, as it turned out later.

 

[Woland]

Trump has picked retired general Kellog as his special envoy for the Ukraine-Russia war.

Half a year ago Kellog wrote the closest thing we have to a proposal for how a Trump admin will deal with Ukraine and Russia: https://americafirstpolicy.com/issu...-u.s-assistance-as-of-day-231-of-the-invasion

It read mostly as a part of Trump's campaign, with Biden criticism sprinkled in anywhere possible, but is interesting nonetheless. Crucially though, while claiming that a Trump admin negotiates from a position of strength while maintaining Trump's unpredictable nature, its proposed negotiating position included freezing the lines and delaying Ukraine in NATO. For placating Ukraine it mostly only offers that Ukraine does not have to formally agree to cede territory in a peace deal, and that a final settlement will likely come with a post-Putin Russia.

He wrote another policy paper about Ukraine with John Ratcliffe, the upcoming CIA Director, which has views very similar to Mike Waltz's and Marco Rubio's; the US should stand with Ukraine, but Europe should be doing more, clear policy objectives should be stated, and without it aid should not be provided.

There was also an insightful interview with him describing his vision for ending the war and criticism of Biden's approach, and another one here where he debunked Putin's nuclear fear-mongering to Fox news and supported letting Ukraine strike Russia with ATACMS and says it should have been done a long time ago.

On one hand, he wants peace negotiations and has a negotiating position that I consider weak (freezing current lines, no support for Ukraine in NATO). On the other, he has been vocal about wanting Ukraine in a strong position with more weapons, and that the Biden admin has insufficiently supported Ukraine.