Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier criticizes the defense line of the Sumy region. Footage shows a Ukrainian serviceman criticizing the dismissed head of the Sumy Military Administration, Valeriy Artyukh, for the defensive fortifications built in Ukraine's Sumy region. At first glance, the defensive line appears to be well-constructed, but it lacks bunkers and cover from drone strikes. Currently, such defensive fortifications cannot be used, as artillery and drones are currently the main threats. According to the author, 20 billion hryvnias were spent on the construction of Ukrainian fortifications, which translates to 475 million dollars.

 

[FiReFTW]

I don't suggest that Russia will collapse into many nations. I have never thought or suggested that. I point out that government revenue - which already does not cover budgeted spending for 2025 - will be further reduced by the Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions. At best government revenue will be reduced due to having to sell 4 million bpd at a greater discount to world crude price.

The Russian government budgeted to spend around 500 billion USD in 2025. About 70 billion USD of that would come from Rosneft and Lukoil crude exports. Less than anticipated in the budget, due the expected price per barrel turning out to be lower than predicted.

I don't suggest that Russia will lose the war on the ground. I suggest that the goverrnment will not have the funds to continue fighting and for that reason will have to stop fighting. Unfortunately Putin has sacrificed the civil side of the economy to spending on the military side of the economy and, yes, parts of t he civil side of the economy are heading for collapse. It is already happening in the coal mining sector with predicted losses of 4 billion USD this year. Without financial support the sector should collapse. Companies that run at a loss shut down in the absence of financial support. Putin can choose to finance the sector but that is extra spending. I think he would rather save the money and spend it on the war.

My advice to Ukraine: keep fighting. Let Putin destroy more and more of the Russian civil economy and drain the government of funds.

I really am astonished by the self-destructive patterns that are going on in Europe right now, your mindset is a great example of what is going on in Europe in the past 10-15 years, the self-destructive actions and self-harming mindsets of so many european politicians.

Look at Trump, hes a m*ron but at least he is in it for the interests of the US, even if he risks relationships with allied countries. As long as the USA profits.

Europe being completely opposite to that is the reason why that Europe is failing and the economy is struggling and they have major issues competitive and otherwise. Because they do things that actively hurt their own economy and people.

Europe should care about their OWN PEOPLE not go against them.

I don't give 0 crap about Russia, if Russia is thriving or if Russia is destroying itself, I don't care, I care about my own country, my own continent, our people, our standard of living, I care about the best life for the people here.

But you and most of the european politicians who think very similar to you would rather see this war drag on ( and this war is just 1 example of many) just because you know the longer it drags on the more it hurts Russia and the more impact it will have on Russia... doesn't matter if its also impacting Europe and having a negative effect on Europe and our own people, as long as Russia is getting f*ked its fine, even if we are getting f*ked also in the process.

It really is astounding, really, I will simply never comprehend it.

 

[Spitfire9]

I really am astonished by the self-destructive patterns that are going on in Europe right now, your mindset is a great example of what is going on in Europe in the past 10-15 years, the self-destructive actions and self-harming mindsets of so many european politicians.

Look at Trump, hes a m*ron but at least he is in it for the interests of the US, even if he risks relationships with allied countries. As long as the USA profits.

Europe being completely opposite to that is the reason why that Europe is failing and the economy is struggling and they have major issues competitive and otherwise. Because they do things that actively hurt their own economy and people.

Europe should care about their OWN PEOPLE not go against them.

I don't give 0 crap about Russia, if Russia is thriving or if Russia is destroying itself, I don't care, I care about my own country, my own continent, our people, our standard of living, I care about the best life for the people here.

But you and most of the european politicians who think very similar to you would rather see this war drag on ( and this war is just 1 example of many) just because you know the longer it drags on the more it hurts Russia and the more impact it will have on Russia... doesn't matter if its also impacting Europe and having a negative effect on Europe and our own people, as long as Russia is getting f*ked its fine, even if we are getting f*ked also in the process.

It really is astounding, really, I will simply never comprehend it.

I want Russia to be so badly damaged economically by this misguided invasion that it will not be in a position to start any more wars against its neighbours for a very long time. IMO after a month of war Putin should have accepted that the planned Blitzkrieg had failed and it was time to disentangle Russia from the situation.

Apart from the idea that aggressive bullies should not gain from behaving as such, a much weakened Russia would present far less of a threat to the EU countries bordering it. Investing 200 billion EUR or 400 billion EUR to achieve that would be worth the money. Investing 1%-2% of Europe's GDP in a single year to halt Russian aggression for many years would be a good investment to me.

 

[Nilgiri]

You know there is a pipeline from Russia to China,yes?
Gas and oil pipeline.


So,we agree on China but i dont think India can be pressured with the engines.
@Nilgiri bro,shed some light.

Yah, India is nuclear power with lot of missiles (and looking to get brahmos numbers from say 1500 deployed now to x2 or x3 with further upgrades).

The force levels there are magnitudes more in the end than new fighters (and the routes available switch to France, Russia for that for engines of course with the % penalties of course on time, performance what have you...or just buying/producing stopgap platforms away from Tejas which has 404 locked into it etc)

But those %'s are small costs and thus small leverage to bear in the overall force level going from say 2020s to 2030s to 2040s etc. i.e they are still important but only so much in grand scheme of things.

Sudden fighter jet engine sanctions would just damage relations (and end things like tthe Quad) but will do nothing on pressuring. India will simply hedge more with Russian military ecosystem. There is reason India felt most comfortable with Russia for the SSBN Arihant class consultancy and reactor minitaurisation help etc that followed smoothly from the SSN leasing from Russian navy too.

i.e there is proven track record of reliable you get what you pay for there and it was demonstrably not upset by any nuclear-test sanctions in 90s/2000s like US did (Russia voiced concerns thats it). In naval domain the Soviet admirral Gorshkov was instrumental in pushing this relationship with India to have a strategic longterm after the 1971 war (where the US was caught on the wrong side and forms some large part of continued Indian geopolitical memory and strategy).

The US approach to India will have to be bite sized, granular and direct. i.e if there is problem with Russia's oil trade with India, it will have to be consistent on it past India (with other heavy buyers like China, given China's large capital assistance to Russian military production by same argument past that).....and will have to first admit that the Janet Yellen policy under Biden with "we welcome India buying all it can from Russia under these price caps" is being reversed and why.

Then the oil sanctions on Russian producers directly (like done recently, after all the brouhaha drama that Trump is a Putin puppet and is heavily anti-Zelensky from earlier in the year) along with US own shale oil and gas supply expansion to Indian buyers is the way to go regarding precise carrot and stick that can work and is logical and predictable.

Transgressing to other domains will not work (like the 50% tarrif approach that Trump is TACO'ing on already) and will just invite more unreliablity + untrustworthiness in Indian elephant memory of American geopolitical strategy to add to the previous chapters.

 

[Nilgiri]

given China's large capital assistance to Russian military production

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