Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Bayraktar TB2

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"sank because of stormy seas"
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Nykyus

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Crimea is not enough for us, Donbass is part of Russia! Mariupol is a Russian city! Kyiv is a Russian city! Tallinn is a Russian city! Minsk is a Russian city! Vilnius is a Russian city! Warsaw is a Russian city! Riga is a Russian city! Berlin is a Russian city! Istanbul is a Russian city! Constantinople is a Russian city! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague!

 

Nilgiri

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Further analysis on the recent Moskva pictures + possible course of events here:


All interested, please do join and contribute.
 

Relic

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Greece is not reliable when it comes to Russia.
Greece is a deeply unreliable country, and has been for a long time. It wasn't long ago that they were basically bankrupt because they couldn't handle their own affairs.

They are among the last nations that NATO or the EU should be relying on to do their part. I have no personal feelings about Greece, but to suggest that they are unreliable is the definition of an understatement.
 

Xenon54

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Crimea is not enough for us, Donbass is part of Russia! Mariupol is a Russian city! Kyiv is a Russian city! Tallinn is a Russian city! Minsk is a Russian city! Vilnius is a Russian city! Warsaw is a Russian city! Riga is a Russian city! Berlin is a Russian city! Istanbul is a Russian city! Constantinople is a Russian city! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague!

Your tanks will run out of fuel before they reach the border.
 

Relic

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Had a great conversation with a friend tonight. Just to provide some context surrounding how passionate many people on this side of the world are to see Russia lose this war, the following is, essentially, his paraphrased comments about the situation.

"One positive about the coming deaths of so many Russians involved in this campaign is that the Kremlin won't be able to hide the horrors when sons, brothers and husbands don't come home. Ukrainians know that their forces face significant casualties ahead. They hate it, but they're prepared for it. Tens of millions of brainwashed Russians, in all their arrogance, think that everything is going as planned and that casualties are low and under control.

We can take solace in the fact that Russian people will be forced to suffer in silence, due to the government they support, when their loved ones don't come home. If NATO weapons, in the hands of Ukrainian sons and daughters, take the lives of Russia's sons, my tax dollars have been exceptionally well spent.

I've said it time and again. They are are the enemy. Nothing more, nothing less. If temporarily doubling my taxes and those of my fellow countrymen freed up another $50 billion dollars to arm Ukrainians and dispatch Russians, it would be a burden well endured on our end."

You might initially think that his thoughts were emotional in nature, but I assure you, they weren't. Rather, they were cold and calculated. His disdain for Russia and the values they hold dear, could not be any more clear.
 
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Relic

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After doing quite a bit of research surrounding inventories of tier-1 anti-armor weapons, which include American made Javelins, British / Swedish made NLAWs, German made Panzerfaust 3's, as well as Ukrainian made Stugna-P's, my evaluation is the following.

1). The United States would probably be willing to donate up to approximately 3000 more Javelins, before they reach a point where their own inventory would be roughly halved and would fall below their national security interests. I would expect those javelins to be donated in blocks of approximately 500, spread out over weeks, as their military industrial complex ramps up to replace the 7000 that have already been sent.

2). Britain can't probably afford to send more than 1500 NLAW missiles, which I also expect them to send in smaller tranches over the coming weeks / months. They would need Thales to ramp up production to replace the thousands already expended from their arsenal.

3). Germany, likely, is approaching their threshold for Panzerfaust 3's that they are willing to send to Ukraine. My suspicion is that they could probably afford to sent approximately 500 more. Whether they are willing to do so is another question.

4). Of the other countries that own tier one anti-armor weapons, I doubt that there is more than 300-500 in circulation, that foreign governments would be willing to send to Ukraine. The primary issue is that re-supply would be slow, especially with the "mother nations" getting first "dibs" on resupply, meaning that secondary countries might have to wait years before they see anything that they donatecome back.

5). Ukraine can, likely, no longer build their Stugna-P / Skiff systems, due to the damage to their military infrastructure. As a result, what they have left in terms of launchers and ammunition, is likely what they'll have throughout this conflict. I suspect that they still have more than 1000 missiles left, although I have no clue how many launchers they can field.

What does the above mean? It means that moving forward, the majority of portable anti-armor systems that Ukraine will receive, will be second tier in nature. There are still nany thousands of AT4 and LAW rockets in circulation, although they are only useful against more lightly armored vehicles. Furthermore, there are thousands more TOW missiles in circulation (especially the Americans), which are effective, especially when mounted on their Hmmvs that they're sending Ukraine. Similarly, numerous countries still possess French MILAN anti-armor systems, although I doubt many more will be sent to Ukraine due to their big picture scarcity. Undoubtedly, there are hundreds-of-thousands of soviet made RPGs available across the world, and I would expect a significant number of them to come into play as Ukraine will be forced to be choosier about what vehicles they prioritize the use of the tier-1 anti-armor systems for.

Lastly, as we see new weapons enter the battlefield, we can expect them to play a role against Russian armor as well. In particular, Western 155mm, guided artillery is capable of destroying any Russian combat vehicle, as is Eastern European 152mm artillery, which might be trickier to find ammunition for. Furthermore, Switchblade 600 drones pack a punch similar to the Hellfire missiles famously used by the American, "Apache" helicopter. I expect them to be fantastic tank busters, although it's yet to be seen if Aerovironment can deliver them in any significant numbers that would make a difference. That said, two sources of effective, air based anti-armor weapons that I do see Ukraine receiving in smaller batches is Turkish MAM-L, to replenish their Bayraktar drones, as well as American made, laser guided rockets, which can be retrofitted onto drones as well.

Regardless, I suspect that given the stockpile of anti-armor weapons already existing in Ukraine, and the above, that the international community still has to give, I suspect that Russia's armor is going to continue to pay a dear price in this campaign.
 
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Gary

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ATGM's are NOT the only means to destroy tanks. You could destroy tanks with your own tank fleet. You could bomb them with aviation or artillery etc.

Imo, the amount of ATGM'S sent by NATO are big enough.

Ukraine will have to be creative for their defense and most importantly don't make it as if they're entitled to support and irritate other countries in the long run. I heard some German politicians are getting annoyed by Ukraine's MFA statements on weapons delivery

Lack of weapons delivery are not an excuse. Remember Isis built an entire army armed mainly from spoils of war. Ukraine will need to do the same if not more.
 

Madokafc

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The same Kherson which Russians bombed to hell and had civilians protesting Russian occupation and even fighting back?

Sure, very "legitimate" referendum there. Don't think it will change a thing, nobody will accept it and Russia won't even be able to pretend like the people there actually like Russia like they did in Crimea.

With all due respect, she's a moron. You can hear shells coming and she could see other people running. Either that or she was listening to music or something.

Didn't Ukrainians already blow up one of these things?

The woman had nine cat lifes
 

Tornadoss

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Crimea is not enough for us, Donbass is part of Russia! Mariupol is a Russian city! Kyiv is a Russian city! Tallinn is a Russian city! Minsk is a Russian city! Vilnius is a Russian city! Warsaw is a Russian city! Riga is a Russian city! Berlin is a Russian city! Istanbul is a Russian city! Constantinople is a Russian city! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague! Our MiGs will land in Riga, our tanks will be in Prague!

Interestingly, these flags and armbands with the grenade are very similar to the Nazi flag.
 

Nykyus

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Interestingly, these flags and armbands with the grenade are very similar to the Nazi flag.
German fascism did not arise from scratch. The harbinger, the father of fascism is monarchism.
Russian monarchism is reborn again, I asked them what Hitler did wrong or did something bad. They answered me that everything that Hitler did before the attack on the Soviet Union was largely correct.
These monarchist currents of Russian nationalism consider the Revolution of 1917 in Russia and the creation of national autonomies within the Russian Empire a mistake. Russian whites never recognized the separation of the Baltic republics from Russia, the acquisition of independence by Poland and Finland.
The ideologist of White Russia was Ivan Ilyin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Ilyin, who lived in Germany during Hitler's time. Wikipedia claims that Putin quoted Ilyin many times.
 

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