Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Blood raven]

What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria

Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.

www.politico.com

Submission Statement: In the months before December 2021, Putin massed the Russian army on Ukraine's border. As I explained early that month, Putin's iterative escalation strategy was an information gathering exercise --- to clarify the stakes and strategic considerations involved. Then, Putin's outstanding question was whether he could take Ukraine without a NATO/American-led military response. Once it was clear that sanctions and some limited military aid inflowing to Ukraine was ceiling of his external risk, invasion following exactly as anticipated under those conditions.

The Russian army's actual performance fell short. But no plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy. Ukraine's guerrilla resistance largely exceeded expectations primarily due to strategy: using scarce resources to maximal impact by targeting the Russian army's most significant vulnerability (logistics/supply-chain) in the most devastating way possible (blowing up fuel trucks).

Critically, this is not the end. We are only entering the next chapter under the same conditions which led to Putin's invasion in the first instance:

> For years, the international community’s response to Russian aggression was meek, at best. The path to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been paved in large part by our own inaction.

In the big picture, Ukraine is a theater in a much broader conflict, where it may be little more than the opening salvo. Putin knows that Washington will lose momentum, focus and the initiative --- just like in Syria. Unlike Washington, Putin is playing the long-game --- just like he has in Syria. Misguided optimism as to how this war ends should be guarded against at all costs.

The author basically argues that he sees between biden current endeavour in ukraine and obamas early actions in syria some parallels.

 

[Bogeyman]

People are wondering why Ukrainians fighting so hard compared to the Afghans who surrendered to the Taliban.

Because one has a national identity and other is a society rife with tribalism and clans.

Thats why Afghanistan is not a nation because it has different ethnic groups so many times people tried to centre kabul while average rural person has no allegiance to kabul but to his tribe or clan.

Although Afghanistan does not have a national identity; its buried all the countries that occupied him within decades. Ukraine could not have imagined what the Afghans were doing with so little support.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519601284315336705

 

[UkroTurk]

The Bundestag voted to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons


The decision was approved by the majority of the German Bundestag. 586 members of the federal assembly voted for this
The German Bundestag will provide Ukraine with heavy weapons. 586 out of 693 deputies present voted for it, 100 were against, seven abstained. It was reported by Ukrinform on Thursday, April 28.

The provision of weapons was supported by the parties of the ruling coalition and the CDU / CSU bloc. But the decision was preceded by a debate that lasted more than an hour.

 

[UkroTurk]

US intends to transfer assets of the Russian Federation to Ukraine

The US Congress is preparing a bill that will allow seized Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine.

417 congressmen voted for the corresponding bill.

It still has to pass the approval of the Senate and the President of the United States.

Earlier it was reported that Canada intends to transfer seized Russian assets for the restoration of Ukraine.

 

[UkroTurk]

I think Putin tries to revitalize Moscow-Simferopol highway which is green number2 . This Simferopol-Moscow highway has historical importance, Moscalites used to travel by this way before the war. For revitalizing the road they should invade Dnepr and Kharkiv cities.



Moscowiches feel proud when they have straight road to Crimea.

they have seemed to have already created new road which is red 1 !. The new route significantly shorten trip to Crimea rather than Kerch bridge. View attachment 43196
View attachment 43198
Very sad. May God save Kharkiv.

Great to know that American experts agree with me

I am hundred percent sure, Putin has Moscow-Kharkiv-Simferopol highway obsession!( The highway which his generation used to drive)

İn the second scenario, at least he could connect Donetsk with Moscow.

There are 2 scenarios for the development of events on the part of the Russian army.

American military experts provided a map of possible options for a "large" and "small" boiler for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass:

1 option "Resolute: the orcs will try to advance on the Dnieper from the northeast and from the south. In parallel, they will need to fix Ukrainian forces in Luhansk and Donetsk. The ultimate goal: to capture the entire territory of Ukraine east of the Dnieper and destroy Ukrainian forces within the framework of the JFO on east.

2 option "Minimalistic": an attempt to pin down the Ukrainian Armed Forces with attacks in Donetsk and Lugansk and give the Russians control of the territory east of the line from Izyum to Mariupol. Ultimate goal: administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

 

[Ecderha]

This is the crucial thing to remember when assessing the current Russian offensive - it's very, very slow. And whilst they're grinding out a few gains, they're paying a heavy, heavy price in men and materiel and they aren't capturing anywhere near enough territory in exchange

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519635359906340872

 

[Ecderha]

Today at about there was a destruction of the railway bridge in Akimovka, Melitopol district.
According to the speaker of the Odessa OVA Bratchuk, the occupiers supplied weapons and fuel from the Crimea through this bridge.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519635846307196930

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519572602792157185

 

[Nykyus]

The Russians at the second stage wanted to repeat the battle at Cannes. Completely encircle the entire Ukrainian army in the Donbass and force it to capitulate, eliminating Ukrainian statehood. But it fails.

Strelkov-Girkin:
Regarding the situation on the Donetsk front (I don’t have any information on the rest of the fronts):

The area south of Izyum:
fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to incoming reports, the most fierce battles are taking place on the right flank - in the area of \u200b\u200bthe village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as "on the edge" of the offensive - in the center of the bridgehead - in the area (possibly - and on the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka . After taking the indicated n.p. our troops will approach directly the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its interception (which will not be easy, since the settlements along this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).
It should be noted that the battles are continuous "viscous" character. The enemy has enough manpower to - despite the lengthening of the front line in this area - nowhere to allow Russian troops to make deep breakthroughs.
At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw his forces from the bridgehead he still has on the left bank of the Seversky Donets - from the Liman-Yampol region and the Severodonetsk ledge, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna (in which fierce fighting continued).
It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave the Estuary and withdraw its troops to strengthen the flanks of the grouping - near Barvenkovo and Slavyansk.
To prevent this and to surround the enemy units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were unable.
In general, the enemy defends himself competently, stubbornly, owns the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear that the command's bet is made on GAINING TIME AND INFLICTING MAXIMUM LOSSES to the SHOCK UNITS of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (the Armed Forces of the Luhansk Donetsk People's Republic) - due to the unhurried surrender of the territory.
Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is a huge Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, prepared in advance for a long defense. It will definitely not be handed over to the APU until the last opportunity - defending, if necessary, as a "besieged fortress". (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the garrison of Mariupol is very important - they should not be released or interned in any case - otherwise the garrison of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk will defend as long and stubbornly, if not longer and more stubbornly). However, this "fortress" will still need to be surrounded, which is very difficult to do with the limited forces available and at such a low pace - at which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense nodes in advance.
In the south - in the area of Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov - the situation has not changed significantly. The "southern part of the ticks" has stalled.

In the central area - near Donetsk - the situation is generally unchanged. There is a lull in most areas, fighting is going on only in the area north of Avdiivka, where the DPR Armed Forces have minor tactical successes.

The general conclusion, unfortunately, is bleak: the offensive of the Russian group, which did not become unexpected, to cover and encircle the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces, met fierce resistance and will not lead almost exactly to the complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy.(if suddenly 2-3 additional tank corps do not "fall from heaven" in order to sharply break through the front and connect deep in the rear of the AFU). "Cannes" definitely didn't work out.
In the best case, the enemy will slowly and with great losses (mutual, of course) "squeeze out" from the Donbass for many weeks and even - it is not excluded - for several months. That will allow him to create, train and massively put into battle strategic reserves on any selected site without much haste by the summer. And also - to crush Transnistria, gathering sufficient forces for this and not risking a defeat near Donetsk during the operation.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519601284315336705

Belarus is asking to go down the shitter it seems.
How does Putin keep finding lapdogs like Kadyrov, Lukashenko and supporters all over Europe?

 

[tracer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519601284315336705

"Comon Vladi, don't be so sad, we will build our own union! With blackjack! And hookers! In fact, forget about the union!"

 

[Van Kravchenko]

already bled

Yes, and Ukrainian also bleed. Ukr loses also rendered high.

It's clear that Russian aim is to hold and slowly grabbing land from Ukr, thus Donetsk and Luhansk already fallen and become Russian bastion. Ukraine try to took it back but ended up in despair since their forces only intended to do ambushes and small skirmish.

Last time we herad about some ammount of tanks already delivered, wait one ore two weeks to see thus tank take action(i hope so)

cold war

From the start of the war Russian use their second tier Equipment. Even their tanks still use T 72 (- B3 at the most modern) wich is their APFSDS ammo will not scratch the front armor of nowadays Western tanks. Their so called BMP-T also didn't take part, even so they still have full load of ammunitions ready to deliver to the frontline.

But they can't afford that for the long run campaign.

Even the demograpy of Russia full with 30 to 50s age. That was standard combat age of military man.

Yet, we didn't hear any news from Mariupol this day. I hope Ukraine take Kherson anytime soon.

 

[HTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518940453453938689

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519685664039653380

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519695277325795328

 

[UkroTurk]

Manipulating the wreckage: the Russian Federation is trying to disrupt the supply of Bayraktar to Ukraine

To do this, Kremlin propaganda is actively promoting in the public space the topic of the wreckage of drones allegedly on the territory of the Russian Federation.


The aggressor country prepared in advance manipulations to use the wreckage of the downed Bayraktars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, collected in the areas of combat operations on the territory of Ukraine and delivered to the border regions of the Russian Federation.

A few days after that, reports began to appear in the Russian media that the Bayraktars had been shot down:

04/25/22 in the Kursk region;
04/27/22 in the Kursk region;
04/27/22 in the Belgorod region.


"And already today, Russian propagandists have begun to replicate the thesis that "despite the Turkish president's rhetoric about peace in Ukraine, his actions diverge from words, since almost every day there are new photos of the Bayraktard shot down over the Russian Federation, which are supplied by Turkey," the statement says. Center.

In the National Security and Defense Council, such rhetoric of the Kremlin propagandists is called an attempt to disrupt the supply of Bayraktars to Ukraine, which proved to be excellent in the fight against Russian invaders.

 

[Madokafc]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519697232747978754

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Manipulating the wreckage: the Russian Federation is trying to disrupt the supply of Bayraktar to Ukraine
View attachment 43233

To do this, Kremlin propaganda is actively promoting in the public space the topic of the wreckage of drones allegedly on the territory of the Russian Federation.


The aggressor country prepared in advance manipulations to use the wreckage of the downed Bayraktars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, collected in the areas of combat operations on the territory of Ukraine and delivered to the border regions of the Russian Federation.

A few days after that, reports began to appear in the Russian media that the Bayraktars had been shot down:

04/25/22 in the Kursk region;
04/27/22 in the Kursk region;
04/27/22 in the Belgorod region.


"And already today, Russian propagandists have begun to replicate the thesis that "despite the Turkish president's rhetoric about peace in Ukraine, his actions diverge from words, since almost every day there are new photos of the Bayraktard shot down over the Russian Federation, which are supplied by Turkey," the statement says. Center.

In the National Security and Defense Council, such rhetoric of the Kremlin propagandists is called an attempt to disrupt the supply of Bayraktars to Ukraine, which proved to be excellent in the fight against Russian invaders.

Please provide link.

 

[BlackandRed]

Kherson region