Ursula said 100k Ukrainians got killed.
Dont know how reliable that figure is.
But shows how both sides have accumulated massive casualties.
The fighting is so fierce its no surprise the high casualty rates.
I don't know if that's an accurate total, but it wouldn't surprise me if there were North of 150,000- 200,000 combined KIA and WIA, on each side.
This war will come down to 3 things...
1. What is the Russian public's appetite for loss of life? Are they willing to withstand another significant round of mobilization? Would 500,000 KIA and WIA be too much for them? I suspect that Ukraine is all in. They'd probably be willing to suffer 1 million WIA and KIA if that's what it takes to win. A sobering reality and significant question, for both sides.
2. What will give first? The West's desire to support Ukraine and defeat the Russian military for a generation, at the best discount they'll ever get? Or the Russian support of this "special military operation"? How much economic retraction, and induced hardship will Russians withstand before they start pressuring their politicians for a resolution?
3. Who can out supply who? Who can train troops faster / better? The Ukrainians, who will be training troops largely outside of Ukraine throughout 2023, or the Russians, who are strictly training their troops inside Russia? Who runs out / low on artillery shells and long range strike capability first? The West is ramping up production in Europe and the United States, while Russia is ramping up internally and getting help from the likes of North Korea. Who will run out of tanks, IFVs, etc that they are willing to lose, first? Will Ukraine get the continued support they require and constant infusions of modern equipment, or will the West stop supplying equipment when they've exhausted their obsolete stockpiles in storage and refuse to send their modern equipment into battle? Will the Russians chew through the remainder of their modern equipment fast enough that they're deeply out gunned and the technological edge favours Ukraine too deeply? How about the battle between Russian cruise missile strikes and the bolstering of Ukrainian air defense. What gives first? Does the West provide Ukraine with enough systems and enough missiles to intercept the large majority of the inventory Russia has left, or are the Russians able to missile strike Ukraine into submission before the air defense can be built up enough that it becomes too much to overcome?
Those are the three major questions in the short term. The Americans are likely going to spend another $37 billion on military aid for Ukraine in 2023. They'll probably spend close to that between humanitarian aid and propping up the Ukrainian Government next year as well. If the the other 30'ish countries make similar ratios of contributions next year, Ukraine is likely to see North of $50 Billion in military aid, and more than $5 billion per month in financial / humanitarian aid.
Can Russia match that moving forward into 2023? Or does the collective foreign support for Ukraine simply become too much to overcome?
t.me
nitter.nl
