Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ecderha]

Where is my walkii talkii..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615058330019368972

 

[Ecderha]

Ukraine tank crew, doing offense attack alone it is like "One man army".
Most impotent it survive and return back to home base

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614979255120842752

 

[blackjack]

This was a February 2, 2022 article before news articles start showing Ukrainians as gods of war. https://www.army-technology.com/features/russia-ukraine-tanks-t-64-t-72-t-14-invasion-nato/

Of course, Ukraine got a shit load of more tanks from the middle east like 100 T-72s from Morroco and post-soviet block countries, but a dim light is visible at the end of the tunnel for Russia while Ukraine is stuck in the catacombs of France with no rescue teams. Depending on when they are out of soviet tanks and switching to leopards, challengers and leclercs this war will be over before 2024 unless the U.S. wants to start sending Abrams or if Europe can afford to start tank production lines that can outproduce what gets destroyed in ukraine However, this proves that Russian loss claims make sense than what bullshit Oryx makes up if they are talking about supplying them with western tanks which will all get destroyed in the same manner. the next tanks Ukraine will have available for offensives is themselves with armored flesh and bones.

Bakhmut is not captured but I will drink to this news with my own opinion. I would be horrified than happy about Ukraine receiving leopards, challengers, because it starts raising questions like what happened to all the T-72s we supplied you with before and when the war started?

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615005633031421954

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615049065808498689

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615097228338794496

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614838672154824704

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615068195467001858

 

[Ecderha]

Video of the russian Kh-22 missile with 1 ton warhead directly striking the intended target - civilian the apartments in Dnipro in Ukraine.
You can see the missile itself on a direct trajectory.

The story pushed by Arestovych that missile was shut down by Ukraine air defense is utter bullshit and incorrect

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615064571697594368

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615063642034298880

 

[Ecderha]

Rubizhne, Luhansk oblast. One of these two warehouses. 48.985221875380724, 38.419315837734835
russian T-90 hideout location

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614976562872389633

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614976558556381185

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615060726111997967

 

[blackjack]

Кирилл Фёдоров / Война История Оружие

Реклама - @dmakarow (НЕ ПО РАЗБАНУ) менеджер @glavkoomm @magister_mg @S_Gabdullin @iWazowski @somsomow @Ruzana1927 Предложить новость- @PredlozkaBuObot Сообщить позиции ВСУ - @AntuBCYbot Написать лично Кириллу (только по важным вопросам) - @HarryPauers

t.me

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615117275345960965

 

[Relic]

This was a February 2, 2022 article before news articles start showing Ukrainians as gods of war. https://www.army-technology.com/features/russia-ukraine-tanks-t-64-t-72-t-14-invasion-nato/

View attachment 52706
Of course, Ukraine got a shit load of more tanks from the middle east like 100 T-72s from Morroco and post-soviet block countries, but a dim light is visible at the end of the tunnel for Russia while Ukraine is stuck in the catacombs of France with no rescue teams. Depending on when they are out of soviet tanks and switching to leopards, challengers and leclercs this war will be over before 2024 unless the U.S. wants to start sending Abrams or if Europe can afford to start tank production lines that can outproduce what gets destroyed in ukraine However, this proves that Russian loss claims make sense than what bullshit Oryx makes up if they are talking about supplying them with western tanks which will all get destroyed in the same manner. the next tanks Ukraine will have available for offensives is themselves with armored flesh and bones.

Bakhmut is not captured but I will drink to this news with my own opinion. I would be horrified than happy about Ukraine receiving leopards, challengers, because it starts raising questions like what happened to all the T-72s weYawn. Only Russians actually believe that the quantity of armor the Russians claim to have is legitimate. How many thousands of those tanks and IFVs are rotting husks, horribly maintained and only capable to be used for parts? Furthermore, a HUGE number of their vehicles are completely obsolete, Soviet era crap, no more capable than the M113's and the BTRs that the Ukrainians are using. supplied you with before and when the war started?

Russian T-62's = Mostly garbage
Russian T-72A / AV / B = Mostly garbage
BMP-1 = Garbage
MT-LB = Garbage
BTR 60 = Garbage

A significant amount of the Russian armor that you're so excited about, is trash. Hundreds of pieces were abandoned when the Kharkiv front collapsed. Hundreds more pieces were destroyed when Russia was utterly humiliated in their attempt to attack Kiev.

Russian artillery is legitimate. That is why the only major successes they've had in the war is when they've chosen to level a city to dust, rather than try to occupy it, because leap frogging artillery is the only thing the Russians know how to do with any kind of competence. Their combined arms capability is trash. Their junior leadership and autonomy is trash. Their command and control decisions are largely trash. Their logistics are laughable compared to their American adversaries. They have MAYBE 2000 quality tanks remaining and a shitload of artillery that they are slowly running out of ammunition for. Their frequency of fire with their artillery has already slowed immensely, in an attempt to conserve their quickly dwindling ammunition stockpiles. Earlier in the conflict they were firing roughly 20,000 artillery rounds per day. That number has been cut down to 5000-6000 rounds, as they were firing rounds at a rate that they had chance of replenishing.

The good thing for Russia is that absolutely do not value human life (especially the lives of their own men). Therefore, they can continue to zerg rush Ukrainian defenses in an attempt to overrun them, and save their precious artillery rounds and high end tanks (such as their T-90's) in the process.

 

[blackjack]

Russian T-62's = Mostly garbage
Russian T-72A / AV / B = Mostly garbage
BMP-1 = Garbage
MT-LB = Garbage
BTR 60 = Garbage

A significant amount of the Russian armor that you're so excited about, is trash. Hundreds of pieces were abandoned when the Kharkiv front collapsed. Hundreds more pieces were destroyed when Russia was utterly humiliated in their attempt to attack Kiev.

Russian artillery is legitimate. That is why the only major successes they've had in the war is when they've chosen to level a city to dust, rather than try to occupy it, because leap frogging artillery is the only thing the Russians know how to do with any kind of competence. Their combined arms capability is trash. Their junior leadership and autonomy is trash. Their command and control decisions are largely trash. Their logistics are laughable compared to their American adversaries. They have MAYBE 2000 quality tanks remaining and a shitload of artillery that they are slowly running out of ammunition for. Their frequency of fire with their artillery has already slowed immensely, in an attempt to conserve their quickly dwindling ammunition stockpiles. Earlier in the conflict they were firing roughly 20,000 artillery rounds per day. That number has been cut down to 5000-6000 rounds, as they were firing rounds at a rate that they had chance of replenishing.

The good thing for Russia is that absolutely do not value human life (especially the lives of their own men). Therefore, they can continue to zerg rush Ukrainian defenses in an attempt to overrun them, and save their precious artillery rounds and high end tanks (such as their T-90's) in the process.

You saw that 2021 armoured inventory list yourself and you can go find a 2013 one but there is no point even trying since the U.S. and Ukraine already admitted themselves that they were getting supplied and trained, yet the point remains that Bradley's, leopards and Abrams should have been sent at the beginning of the war than oh shit we need to train the Ukrainians now to use western equipment which makes it look like this war is not going as what the U.S. planned similar to Russia sending a small force at the beginning of the operation. I can say western equipment is trash based on the performance in the middle east along with the turks experience using leopards in Syria but luckily for them they are developing their own MBTs. So we will finally see how western equipment will perform in this war based on what happened in the middle east and only than users in this forum will finally treat western equipment as non-magical non-divine equipment to learn.

If you're saying their command and control is bad than NATO's has to be complete dogshit since they are the ones giving the orders and 24/7 intel to ukraine's armed forces and somehow a group of convicts is pushing the entire AFU back this is like Russia using barely 5% of their power based on how much wagner troops are pushing them compared to which groups are involved in the operation, the reserves and even the active duty pool. Has NATO or the west fought any war comparable to Ukraine? Assuming you are not foaming from the mouth mad the answer is no so I can't really compare how the U.S. France, UK, Turkey would perform because those conflicts are barely comparable and Russia's own announced losses with how much force they are barely using to contain Ukraine is actually amazing which is why I don't get where the incompetence is?

Hate to break it to you the only human wave zerg rushes going on are the Ukrainians and it will be worse if they are out of western equipment next, but you know that already.

 

[Kathirz]

This was a February 2, 2022 article before news articles start showing Ukrainians as gods of war. https://www.army-technology.com/features/russia-ukraine-tanks-t-64-t-72-t-14-invasion-nato/

View attachment 52706
Of course, Ukraine got a shit load of more tanks from the middle east like 100 T-72s from Morroco and post-soviet block countries, but a dim light is visible at the end of the tunnel for Russia while Ukraine is stuck in the catacombs of France with no rescue teams. Depending on when they are out of soviet tanks and switching to leopards, challengers and leclercs this war will be over before 2024 unless the U.S. wants to start sending Abrams or if Europe can afford to start tank production lines that can outproduce what gets destroyed in ukraine However, this proves that Russian loss claims make sense than what bullshit Oryx makes up if they are talking about supplying them with western tanks which will all get destroyed in the same manner. the next tanks Ukraine will have available for offensives is themselves with armored flesh and bones.

Bakhmut is not captured but I will drink to this news with my own opinion. I would be horrified than happy about Ukraine receiving leopards, challengers, because it starts raising questions like what happened to all the T-72s we supplied you with before and when the war started?

Those numbers are like the Bradleys being destroyed before entering Ukraine.

There you might find an interesting article about a rough assesment about how much tanks can be "restored" to be used in the war, based on satellite imagery of their storage facilities:

Аналіз запасів танків РФ на базах зберігання за Уралом

Аналіз запасів танків РФ на базах зберігання за Уралом | Чесні новини про армію, війну та оборонку.

mil-in-ua.translate.goog

In summary:

In total, according to CBRT and BZtRVT, 2,075 tanks are relatively combat-ready (886 of them are being preserved under dry air), 1,304 tanks are in storage, and 2,299 tanks are for disposal. A total of 5,678 tanks and 1,330 tank spaces in hangars.

And you missed three points:

1-Ukranian tanks were also in bad state, some of them could be repaired and put in combat-ready operation.
2-Ukranians regained thousands of square kilometers with a few tank companies and destroyed thousands of Russian tanks with NLAWs/Javelins/etc.
3-Russians are the mayor Ukraine's tank donor as we can see on WSJ article in October:

There is a lot of "noise" these days in RU channels, as expected, "western tanks will be destroyed" but the reallity:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614999689304363009

 

[blackjack]

Those numbers are like the Bradleys being destroyed before entering Ukraine.

There you might find an interesting article about a rough assesment about how much tanks can be "restored" to be used in the war, based on satellite imagery of their storage facilities:

Аналіз запасів танків РФ на базах зберігання за Уралом

Аналіз запасів танків РФ на базах зберігання за Уралом | Чесні новини про армію, війну та оборонку.

mil-in-ua.translate.goog

And you missed three points:

1-Ukranian tanks were also in bad state, some of them could be repaired and put in combat-ready operation.
2-Ukranians regained thousands of square kilometers with a few tank companies and destroyed thousands of Russian tanks with NLAWs/Javelins/etc.
3-Russians are the mayor Ukraine's tank donor as we can see on WSJ article in October:

View attachment 52725

There is a lot of "noise" these days in RU channels, as expected, "western tanks will be destroyed" but the reallity:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614999689304363009

If I tell this board that russian reports say 7,500 armored vehicles accounting tanks and IFVs were destroyed no one would even bother to agree or acknowledge that it happened but since we have news reports of how much equipment Ukraine got supplied and all the talks about bradleys, challengers and abrams being supplied than its really fucking bad, The tanks getting ""restored"" must be getting destroyed again or we would not have pro-western sources talking about supplying western vehicles in the 1st place and you know that. You already know that I think Oryx is dogshit in terms of Ukrainian claims but if I play along with you and some users here thinking it is true than Russia would still absolutely have more armored vehicles to spare compared to the 2021 chart I pulled here a while ago. You only have one tweet and that mobilization tweet could be for their existing reserves that have still not joined any offensives yet because it this past week it was just PMC Wagner pushing the AFU back, not the chechens, DPR, etc or the reserves yet or even announcements from Putin himself getting active duty troops involved. Russia could also be concerned about countries like Poland or more post-soviet block countries getting involved in the war and that is still a great possibility.

As Julian Ropke once said on the kherson grab from Russia, where are all the destroyed Russian equipment? Now if we go compare destroyed Russian vehicles personnel in Kherson like pictures and videos to destroyed Ukrainian equipment and personel in Bakhmut or even Soledar(I know alot of telegram channels but I don't want to piss off admins again of my excessive posting) the reality is pretty haunting. If there are pro-ukraine users here that are like Julian Ropke that give a shit about the war along with results and not the media making bullshit like ghost of kyiv, than talks of bradley, abrams, leopards and challengers would put anyone into a doomer phase because apparently what you claim as restored would have not given the end results of relying on western equipment.

Edit: what i like about announcements of western equipment like leopards, bradleys, abrams challengers, is that no one can bullshit their way out that there 100% soviet supplied equipment is getting closer to zero and that obviously means a fuck load of Ukrainian equipment was destroyed where the loss rate for them is not favorable to winning the war which is all that matters to me.

 

[Relic]

If I tell this board that russian reports say 7,500 armored vehicles accounting tanks and IFVs were destroyed no one would even bother to agree or acknowledge that it happened but since we have news reports of how much equipment Ukraine got supplied and all the talks about bradleys, challengers and abrams being supplied than its really fucking bad, The tanks getting ""restored"" must be getting destroyed again or we would not have pro-western sources talking about supplying western vehicles in the 1st place and you know that. You already know that I think Oryx is dogshit in terms of Ukrainian claims but if I play along with you and some users here thinking it is true than Russia would still absolutely have more armored vehicles to spare compared to the 2021 chart I pulled here a while ago. You only have one tweet and that mobilization tweet could be for their existing reserves that have still not joined any offensives yet because it this past week it was just PMC Wagner pushing the AFU back, not the chechens, DPR, etc or the reserves yet or even announcements from Putin himself getting active duty troops involved. Russia could also be concerned about countries like Poland or more post-soviet block countries getting involved in the war and that is still a great possibility.

As Julian Ropke once said on the kherson grab from Russia, where are all the destroyed Russian equipment? Now if we go compare destroyed Russian vehicles personnel in Kherson like pictures and videos to destroyed Ukrainian equipment and personel in Bakhmut or even Soledar(I know alot of telegram channels but I don't want to piss off admins again of my excessive posting) the reality is pretty haunting. If there are pro-ukraine users here that are like Julian Ropke that give a shit about the war along with results and not the media making bullshit like ghost of kyiv, than talks of bradley, abrams, leopards and challengers would put anyone into a doomer phase because apparently what you claim as restored would have not given the end results of relying on western equipment.

Edit: what i like about announcements of western equipment like leopards, bradleys, abrams challengers, is that no one can bullshit their way out that there 100% soviet supplied equipment is getting closer to zero and that obviously means a fuck load of Ukrainian equipment was destroyed where the loss rate for them is not favorable to winning the war which is all that matters to me.

Nobody would dare believe numbers released by Russia because they release purely delusional, intentionally embellished numbers, purely for propaganda purposes. They have legitimately claimed to have destroyed more items of some equipment than has been sent to Ukraine. It's actually embarrassing how ridiculous the claims that Russia make are. What's worse is that most of the BS passes because they population lives under an authoritarian regime that force the people to believe what they want them to believe. Only a complete fool (like a good majority of the 25% of Russians that still don't have indoor plumbing) would believe in the accuracy of the nonsense that Mother Russia spews.

You might not believe Oryx's numbers (that's your prerogative) but others have corroborated similar numbers. Just today British Parliament was talking about Russia having lost nearly 1700 tanks thus far (between those destroyed and those taken by Ukraine). Those numbers are reasonably in line with Oryx's. It actually makes sense from a logical perspective as well, given that Russia is pulling T-62s out of their storage reserve due to a shortage of some of their newer models. Good luck explaining that away. Here's a Forbes article from November 28th. At the time it claimed Russia had lost roughly 1500 tanks. Again, that number is roughly in line with what Oryx claims.

The Ukrainian Army Captured Dozens Of The Russian Army’s Old T-62 Tanks—And Is Now Sending Them Back Into Battle

The first video of an ex-Russian T-62 in distinctive Ukrainian camouflage appeared online last week.

www.forbes.com

Remember back in October, when 1.5 million Russian military uniforms went missing / never existed? It's for those type of reasons why people don't believe anything released by Russia.

‘Where did they disappear to?’: Russian MP says 1.5 mln military uniforms are missing — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Russia’s MP for Zabaykalsky region lieutenant general Andrey Gurulev has said that 1.5 million sets of military uniform had gone missing, reports local outlet Tayga.info.

novayagazeta.eu

 

[Gary]

Western equipment is pretty expensive to produce like Apaches cost 52 million dollars, the UK wants to send this to Ukraine, I have seen Wagner shoot down a Su-24 with MANPADS from 8kms away and short range air defenses shoot down a mig-29 and these ranges are even longer than what Apaches are able to use with hellfire missiles. This is what I mean by affordability even as going as far as supplying 1.2 million Dollars for NASAMs but they dont know if Ukraine is using that for 30,000 dollar iranian drones(even the US got concerned to send some US soldiers to see where their equipment supplied to Ukraine was going based on those losses and how much they have used),

You get what you paid for. There's a reason why 8 "overly expensive HIMARS" done what Russia's hundreds of "cheap and plentiful" analogue (Tornado,Smerc) can't do. Mainly defeat an entire offensive and switch the favor from defense to offense.

I mean at this point Russia does not even need to have a bigger economy than Europe or the U.S. Abrams will soon cost of 10 million dollars from 9 million dollars soon enough. But the problem users here fail to understand is just how much firepower Russia is using compared to Ukraine and why they have always used a small force to push a bigger Ukrainian force back. Even the losses Ukraine has claimed would mean reservists would have been launching the offensives to Ukraine in bakhmut but from the map I posted here a while ago it's all convicts from Wagner just doing the fighting but Ukraine bullshitting numbers was nothing new when the war started. And they bullshit again that they wiped out 30k from 40k of Wagner but Wagner is launching more than just one offensive to Bakhmut but other Ukrainian controlled areas and with those kinds of losses you would need to regroup with reinforcements WHICH the Russians have not announced, and the offensives launched were immediate.

What has the Shahed achieve other than some annoyance ? Its effectiveness has been decreasing from time to time.

And as for you keep saying how Russia always uses less to defeat more , its rubbish. This is even more rubbish then when the Russians are coping with statements like " The real Russian army is in Russia waiting for NATO".

But switching to soviet to western made equipment tells us one thing that any pro-ukraine user here cant deny, and that is Russians must have destroyed A LOT of Ukrainian equipment and that is a lot if it got supplied by post-soviet block countries and the middle east if they need to switch to western made equipment. So now countries in NATO will have to decide if they want to deplete their own armed forces to become vulnerable or if their economy despite energy costs and living is good enough to send their equipment to Ukraine but able to afford to get new produced equipment and produce enough to help Ukraine's loss rate and based on production capabilities and how much tanks they are able to produce makes the idea laughable. SINCE they are switching to western equipment once they do that this means they have lost more than 3000 MBTs and even more IFVs based on their own reports, so lets see how generous Europe will be with leopards or see how many bradleys will be supplied until they go oh shit later again, because if they are generous enough to give as much as being left with no tanks for themselves and starting no production for themselves than this war will be over before 2024(that is excluding Abrams or if they will be trained to use those tanks besides training for leopards). I have seen how leopards have performed in Syria.

Wrong, mainly because the Ukrainians no longer have the necessary ammunition to fire from their legacy T-64/80, BM-21 and other Soviet era stocks. Ammo has been their main concern all along, not to mention the lesser effectiveness of Soviet/Russian weapons.

PzH2000 >>> MSTA
HIMARS >>> Smerch/Uragan
Leopard 2 >>> T-64/72/80/90

To this date the kill ratio still favor the Ukrainians.

8708 Russian equipment losses
2804 Ukrainian equipment losses

1614 Russian MBT losses to 449 Ukrainian ones
1912 Russian IFV losses to 450 Ukrainian ones

 

[blackjack]

Nobody would dare believe numbers released by Russia because they release purely delusional, intentionally embellished numbers, purely for propaganda purposes. They have legitimately claimed to have destroyed more items of some equipment than has been sent to Ukraine. It's actually embarrassing how ridiculous the claims that Russia make are. What's worse is that most of the BS passes because they population lives under an authoritarian regime that force the people to believe what they want them to believe. Only a complete fool (like a good majority of the 25% of Russians that still don't have indoor plumbing) would believe in the accuracy of the nonsense that Mother Russia spews.

You might not believe Oryx's numbers (that's your prerogative) but others have corroborated similar numbers. Just today British Parliament was talking about Russia having lost nearly 1700 tanks thus far (between those destroyed and those taken by Ukraine). Those numbers are reasonably in line with Oryx's. It actually makes sense from a logical perspective as well, given that Russia is pulling T-62s out of their storage reserve due to a shortage of some of their newer models. Good luck explaining that away. Here's a Forbes article from November 28th. At the time it claimed Russia had lost roughly 1500 tanks. Again, that number is roughly in line with what Oryx claims.

You really want to know whats delusional? Claiming 75% of wagner got eliminated when they right now as we speak launching advances towards Bakhmut and Seversk but sometimes I worry and wonder if users have an IQ that is atleast above room temperature to say hey I think this is another Ukrainian ghost of kyiv story. The Bullshit spreading got so bad for Ukraine that Arestovich got tired of it himself, spoke his mind and now is getting arrested in Ukraine. Than there are daily tweets everyday of AFU figiting civilians that I am getting tired of posting it here.

Yes trust western with ukraine sources that have absolutely no intentions of making russians look bad sigh....... What do you think of actual ukrainians getting interviewed and saying shit like 5 of us die for every 1 russian when they were pushing the russians back in September, you think they are Kremlin agents getting interviewed by western journalists? As you see I have avoided Russian, Western and ukrainian one sided sources as much as I can by seeing what ukrainian soldiers themselves have said or I see where two opposing sides have an agreement not on the same side like demonstrating ukrainian and western sources as undeniable proof. Such as Russia saying like close to 8000 ukrainian armoured vehicles accounting IFVs and tanks destroyed you might call that bullshit but than western sources are talking about supplying Ukraine with Bradleys, abrams, leopards and challengers which means pretty much the soviet armoured vehicles they must have used must be coming to an end or it will come to an end in a certain timeframe because they are getting destroyed and Ukraine has to be resupplied over and over again thus western and russian two opposing sides have reached an agreement that a shit load of Ukrainian equipment was destroyed based on what Russia claimed as destroyed and western sources that stated Ukraine's inventory and heading to the path of western armoured vehicles. By no means I am full of shit for seeing what Ukrainian soldiers have said themselves or where two opposing sides reach an agreement.

You get what you paid for. There's a reason why 8 "overly expensive HIMARS" done what Russia's hundreds of "cheap and plentiful" analogue (Tornado,Smerc) can't do. Mainly defeat an entire offensive and switch the favor from defense to offense.

The only thing memorable about HIMARS to be honest with you is that for months on end they kept hitting the kherson bridge but the Russians finally blew it up for them, and if those HIMARS magically stopped russian offensive and made ukrainian offensives possible than tell me WTF is wagner doing right now?

What has the Shahed achieve other than some annoyance ? Its effectiveness has been decreasing from time to time.

And as for you keep saying how Russia always uses less to defeat more , its rubbish. This is even more rubbish then when the Russians are coping with statements like " The real Russian army is in Russia waiting for NATO".

Shahads get overused to the point that no one bothers to talk about them and when they claim russia is out of missiles more missile strikes happen later. I mean its not really rubbish when PMC wagner pushing the entire AFU back, chechen, DPR and other groups are not involved with Wagner nor are the reserves or active-duty pool. I think NATO sounds like its in a fucked position if it has to talk about sending western equipment when we already got a good armoured vehicle inventory list of Ukraine prior to the war and not counting all the additional soviet gear that got sent to them during the war

Wrong, mainly because the Ukrainians no longer have the necessary ammunition to fire from their legacy T-64/80, BM-21 and other Soviet era stocks. Ammo has been their main concern all along, not to mention the lesser effectiveness of Soviet/Russian weapons.

PzH2000 >>> MSTA
HIMARS >>> Smerch/Uragan
Leopard 2 >>> T-64/72/80/90

To this date the kill ratio still favor the Ukrainians.

8708 Russian equipment losses
2804 Ukrainian equipment losses

1614 Russian MBT losses to 449 Ukrainian ones
1912 Russian IFV losses to 450 Ukrainian ones

This is bullshit again the US and its allies could have sent western equipment before or during the war and not beg some random middle eastern country like Morocco to go send 100 T-72s to Ukraine. They could no longer find any countries to beg to which is why they are resorting to sending western equipment now.

Koalition howitzer is better than Pzh2000
Smerch has a longer range than HIMARS and this is not get even talking about the tornado MRLS systems being mass produced.

Leopard 2 depends on variation like the 2A4s that were used in Syria by Turks got fucked with fagots and konkurs and this is not even the latest ATGMs the russians have stockpiled, and T-90 depends on variation with the Leopard 2s.

Russian equipment losses make no sense when 40k Wagners are prison raping (get the joke they are convicts) 65k AFU soldiers currently right now. And when they were on the run in September, they said shit like 5 of us die for 1 Russian soldier excluding julian ropke saying where is the destroyed russian equipment that pissed off NAFO fans, so I am sorry that the shit you claim makes absolutely no sense to me like when they talked about the ghost of kyiv or some Ukrainian babushka shooting down a Russian aircraft with a jar of pickles.

Please just tell me you are joking with those statistics before I even decide to bother replying back. EDIT: I mean like come on dude Ukrainians are still claiming that they are in Soledar while no longer being in it.

 

[chibiyabi]

Please just tell me you are joking with those statistics before I even decide to bother replying back. EDIT: I mean like come on dude Ukrainians are still claiming that they are in Soledar while no longer being in it.

media war is about pick info that you need, throw the other. unfortunately, for majority around the globe, western media easier to believe because check n balance process still work, even in twitland. you will see a lot of twitter account said it's not true ( that UA still in soledar) that you will not see in RU pro accounts..accept that crazy igor girkin

 

[Gary]

The only thing memorable about HIMARS to be honest with you is that for months on end they kept hitting the kherson bridge but the Russians finally blew it up for them, and if those HIMARS magically stopped russian offensive and made ukrainian offensives possible than tell me WTF is wagner doing right now?

Yes, they stopped the Russian offensive by blowing their ammo depots to the point that the "artillery army" of Russia no longer be able to support its traditional way of carpet bombing the entire front. The Kharkiv offensive and the following re-capture of Kherson is a testament to that. What Wagner is doing right now is irrelevant to the HIMARS performance.

Shahads get overused to the point that no one bothers to talk about them

Because its no longer relevant

This is bullshit again the US and its allies could have sent western equipment before or during the war and not beg some random middle eastern country like Morocco to go send 100 T-72s to Ukraine. They could no longer find any countries to beg to which is why they are resorting to sending western equipment now.

No bullshit, but Ukrainians got their hands mainly on Western artillery earlier than tanks, which is not surprising because using donated Western artillery and its assorted 155mm rounds are faster than having to establish an entirely new production line in the West to supply 152mm ones.

As for T-72, the Poles and Czechs has them and their assorted ammo in quantity and sending another hundreds is the logical thing to do to replace Ukraine's own losses.

Maybe now that Ukraine themselves has depleted their 125mm ammo, we heard more and more Western tanks like the Challenger 2 (and later Leo 2) being sent to Ukraine.

Koalition howitzer is better than Pzh2000

Not better but equal (to the L52 variant).

The PzH 2000 is planned to be equipped with the longer barreled 60cal tube which will outgun even the Koalitsiya

Hungarians will be the first to have this variant

Hungary to Acquire HX3 Wheeled 155mm Self-propelled Howitzer from Rheinmetall - MilitaryLeak.COM

The Hungarian Army acquired the new wheeled 155mm self-propelled howitzer HX3 produced by the German company Rheinmetall, citing Soldat & Technik. Ever

militaryleak.com

More exciting artillery will follow this longer barrel trend. Like the M1299 (L58 guns)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608103551661899776

And oh... has I mentioned that the PzH2000 is in active service ?

Smerch has a longer range than HIMARS and this is not get even talking about the tornado MRLS systems being mass produced.

As the Kharkiv and Kherson offensive suggest this is irrelevant, because the HIMARS GMLRS rounds are simply more accurate and produced in more numbers than Russians could ever produced its analogues.

Now that production is , we might see more GMLRS round being donated

DoD procurement chief signals GMLRS production boost | Shephard

Output of rocket systems for HIMARS must ‘at least double’, says US Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition & Sustainment.

www.shephardmedia.com

Leopard 2 depends on variation like the 2A4s that were used in Syria by Turks got fucked with fagots and konkurs and this is not even the latest ATGMs the russians have stockpiled, and T-90 depends on variation with the Leopard 2s.

Ok I concur. But even then L44 equipped gun Leo 2 if armed with lets say the M829A4 would easily defeat T-90M or even T-14. But it seems that Ukraine will have to do with older DM33 rounds for the time being.

Shahads get overused to the point that no one bothers to talk about them and when they claim russia is out of missiles more missile strikes happen later. I mean its not really rubbish when PMC wagner pushing the entire AFU back,

The entire AFU ? Many AFU units are tied in the North expecting Belarusians and Russians in Kharkiv and Kyiv oblast. many are manning positions in Kherson, Zaporizhia. And you come up here that Wagners somehow defeats AFU in its entirety.

You do realize that Soledar are a very small settlement right ? Even Bakhmut itself would be better called a town, but you guys seems struggling to capture those settlements. Your Soviet forefather would be rolling in their graves knowing that in their time, Berlin fell in a month, and Budapest fell in only 50 days.

Bakhmut campaign started last August btw.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the use by Russian military personnel in Ukraine of a gun against drones. Anti-drone weapons are reinforced with additional antennas with increased beam gain. After intercepting the drone of the Ukrainian army, the calculation immediately leaves so as not to fall under the blow of Ukrainian artillery.

152-mm self-propelled howitzer 2S3 "Acacia" of the Ukrainian army, came under attack from the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet". The drone attack took place near Konstantinovka in the Ugledar direction. SAU 2S3 "Acacia" was damaged and was abandoned by the crew.

The calculation of the Russian 152-mm self-propelled guns "Msta-S" spoke about the tactics of using an artillery mount in Ukraine. The firing range of the Msta-S self-propelled guns with a conventional projectile is 25 km.

 

[Nykyus]

Sergei Markov: "Russia has already taken several steps towards its defeat"https://www.yktimes.ru/новости/serg...la-uzhe-neskolko-shagov-k-svoemu-porazheniyu/
10.01.2023
YKTIMES.RU - “If we are defeated in the conflict with Ukraine, then the war may go to the territory of Russia with the threat of occupation of the country, dividing it into several parts up to the collapse of Russian statehood,” political scientist Sergei Markov predicts a negative development of the situation for the Russian Federation. About why the state system demonstrated a high degree of inadequacy, what were the main mistakes made during the Special Military Operation, why there was no consolidation of the elites, how serious the risks of a terrorist attack against the President of Russia are, and whether a nuclear war between the Russian Federation and the United States is possible, he told in an interview with BUSINESS Online ".
“The Russian state system has demonstrated a high degree of inadequacy”
- Sergey Alexandrovich, how do you assess the results of 2022, the determining factor of which was the special military operation (SМO), and what conclusions do you draw from the events that took place during the year?
— I think that the results of the year are catastrophic. A special military operation, which was planned to be quick and effective, turned out to be slow and ineffective and grew into a long-term military operation. There are reports of tens of thousands of deaths from Ukraine and Russia, but in reality already, apparently, hundreds of thousands of deaths. Millions of refugees. In fact, there is a civil war going on within the Russian people, unleashed by the US and the West.
At the same time, a huge qualitative shift took place in Ukraine in relation to Russia. If earlier anti-Russian sentiments in Ukrainian society amounted to 10 percent, then under the influence of propaganda they became 15 percent, and then 20–25 percent, after the start of the SМO they reached about 70–80 percent. There was a consolidation of the Ukrainian political regime on an anti-Russian basis. This is also a disastrous outcome.
The Russian army has actually lost the status of the second army in the world, if you do not take nuclear weapons. In the eyes of the whole world, it is assessed as extremely ineffective and incapable of solving combat missions. By the way, I don't think so. The problem is not that the Russian army is weak, but that the Ukrainian army has become very strong. The Ukrainian army is unique because it is fought by a Russian soldier (one of the best in the world), a fascist officer (because the US special services fascisized the officer corps, and he is the skeleton of the army) and American and British generals who control the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even if they are citizens of Ukraine, they usually have second passports and are paid in dollars or pounds sterling.
In geopolitical terms, we also see not a transition to a multipolar world, but, on the contrary, a reset of the unipolar world, a significant strengthening of the United States, which has shown its enormous power, efficiency, and ability to control political regimes. Western civilization today is more than ever consolidated around the United States. And Russia was weak. In fact, the Americans defeated the Russian army at the hands of the Ukrainians in many places. The Russian army was forced to leave millions of people and hundreds of settlements in the Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkov, Kherson regions. These people were subjected to repressions because there is a real terrorist regime in Ukraine.
And Russia has been hit by a sanctions storm that affects tens of millions of people. Although our economy has more or less survived, all the same, sanctions are a strong blow that creates huge problems for citizens, especially socially active ones. People have great difficulty in traveling to many countries, hundreds of air routes have been cancelled. The attitude towards Russia has changed dramatically. In the West, everything related to our country is being cancelled.
And the Russian state system has demonstrated a high degree of inadequacy, since it was unable to predict the course of development of all these events. Both a special military operation and political work were carried out very erroneously. What are the words “everything goes according to plan”, which cause the hatred of the population. However, the support of the Russian political leadership turned out to be the same. Maybe even increased a little. It is important not only to support the political leadership among the population, but also that there is no split in the elite, which the Americans hoped for.
What else matters? The global economy is in crisis. The reset of the unipolar world and the strengthening of US leadership led to catastrophic consequences for Europe. A blow has been dealt to the standard of living, to social life, to business. Europe has shown a complete inability to defend its interests. European countries that claimed to be the bearers of freedom and democracy supported the Kyiv junta. And the Kyiv junta is an example of anti-Europeanism, anti-democratism, anti-liberalism and directly conducts terrorist activities. The fact that Europe supported this junta testifies to its future collapse, because when a teacher at school decided to enter the company of bandits and drink vodka with them, her career at school would not be set for sure.
“The trouble came not only to Ukrainian families, but also to Russian ones”
- You once wrote in Telegram that this time people in Russia were waiting for the New Year and a miracle more than usual in order to distract themselves from the nightmare that came to us in 2022. That is, the situation in society is perceived as a nightmare?
- Of course. The trouble came not only to Ukrainian families, but also to Russian ones. In addition to those who fought at the front from the beginning of the SМO, another 300 thousand people were called up during the mobilization. Each of them affects 3-4 families. Several hundred thousand left the country. Each of them is also related to 3-4 families. As a result, the trouble affected 10-15 million families. Although, according to a survey by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, very unexpected results of answers to the question about the main event of 2022 were obtained. It turned out that SМO became the main event of the year for only 62 percent of our citizens. For another 9 percent, the main event is mobilization. And sanctions generally turned out to be the most important for only 3 percent of Russians. That is, only for one person out of 33. We can say that this is a slap in the face to Joe Biden and European leaders.
- However, Putin still miscalculated by starting the SMO?
- I clearly said - the problem is in the state machine. Let's not touch Vladimir Vladimirovich. Although the beginning of the SMO was absolutely inevitable. Putin made a mistake not to send troops to Ukraine in 2014 or 2015. That was the main mistake. And all the talk that we were not ready is just a fairy tale. It was the Ukrainian regime that was not ready for such resistance as it is today. As a result, over 8 years, from a military point of view, we have become, relatively speaking, 3 times stronger, and the Kyiv regime - 30 times. We have been preparing for a military conflict in Ukraine since the summer of 2021. And in Kyiv - since the summer of 2014. All these years they were processed and pumped up by NATO forces under the leadership of the United States. They were preparing a proxy war against Russia at the hands of the Ukrainian proxy regime.
- What were the main mistakes made by the leadership of Russia during the SMO?
- A huge number of mistakes were made. The most important mistake is to start a special operation without prior preparation. We have, in fact, fallen into a trap. Another mistake is the absence of bombings, strikes against the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the very beginning. Everyone thought that it would be possible to conclude an alliance with them. We hoped for the support of the population, as it was in Crimea and as it would have been in 2014–2015. But we did nothing for this, we did not fight for the consciousness of the inhabitants of Ukraine. And for 8 years the West has been telling Ukrainians that Russia is their enemy.
Citizens of Ukraine could not meet the Russian Federation with open arms and flowers. They are afraid to support us. Everyone knows perfectly well that the Ukrainian state is a terrorist regime, and it will take revenge. Ukrainians would greet us with flowers if Russia defeated the terrorist Kyiv junta. But we didn't destroy it. And in these conditions, to hope that absolutely intimidated people will rejoice at the sight of the Russian army is simply amazing naivety.
Serious mistakes were made during the mobilization. Firstly, it should have been carried out in March-April, and not in September-October. Secondly, the mobilization itself was organized so badly that even many patriots were frightened. When the mobilized are thrown to the front, and relatives buy them everything that the state should provide, and spend tens of thousands of rubles on it, this causes understandable grumbling, discontent and fear.
A huge mistake was the protracted capture of Mariupol. In fact, Russia fell into a temporary trap, organized on purpose. It was necessary to go further with discharge blows and beat the enemy. But we got stuck in Mariupol.
The Istanbul talks were also a temporary trap. Then it turned out that the Ukrainian army simply ran out of shells, and they began negotiations to slow down our troops. That is, there were several temporary traps that the enemy took advantage of in order to carry out a general mobilization and equip his army with new weapons. And after that, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive.
The rejection of a real war and the catastrophic delay in making the necessary decisions led to the surrender of Kherson, which became Russia's biggest defeat. As a result of all these mistakes, the Kyiv regime, with the help of the US and NATO, killed hundreds of thousands of Russians with Ukrainian passports and tens of thousands of Russians with Russian passports.
“The Kyiv regime is a terrorist regime, and it is a successful terrorist regime”
- Why weren't the enemy forces objectively assessed, didn't they calculate that the collective West would rush to help Kyiv on such a large scale?
— It was clear that the collective West would help Ukraine. But, despite this support, they wanted to resolve the Ukrainian issue quickly. It was not quickly resolved. Moscow hid from the Ukrainian challenge for 8 years and in 2022 was unable to cope with it. In relation to the enemies of Russia, it is necessary to act tougher. Because the Kyiv regime is a terrorist regime, and it is a successful terrorist regime. Practice has shown that such regimes as the Taliban*, DAISH*, the Kyiv junta are very successful.
People are really afraid. Put yourself in the place of a pro-Russian family that lives, say, in the Zaporozhye region. You have to choose whether you live under the control of Ukraine or Russia. For example, we need to resolve the most important issue - where to send your children to get an education - in a Ukrainian school or a Russian one. If you send a child to a Ukrainian school, he will study in peace, because Russia does not like terrorist attacks. And if the child goes to a Russian school, then the Ukrainian government will carry out terrorist attacks there, since the government is terrorist. Naturally, you will send the children to where it is safer. And there are a huge number of such cases in various parameters. And Russia could not oppose anything to them.
- And the conclusions, work on the mistakes are being made or not?
- Of course. Have you mobilized? Done. True, with a huge delay, unlike Ukraine, but they did. Have you seen what a mess is obtained with the mobilized? We saw. The public got involved and everything was fixed. Realized that there are not enough drones? Understood. Did Putin say that we should overwhelm our army with drones? Declared. We started buying them and making them ourselves. So the conclusions are correct. But whether the conclusions are sufficient is another question.
- Is the appointment of Sergei Surovikin also the result of certain conclusions?
- The public considers one general to be good, the other - bad. It's all from a lack of information. In fact, all generals are about the same. Of course, from time to time they need to be changed and so on. But it doesn't really matter. It is good that with the appointment of Surovikin, public disputes and criticism of the generals by the same Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped. They fully supported the difficult decision to surrender Kherson, realizing that it was already a military necessity.
- You wrote that they are now creating a new private military company. Is this done in order to reduce the influence of Prigozhin?
-Prigozhin has no influence. These are all fairy tales. Where there is no need, there is no influence. He has influence where it is needed, as far as military operations are concerned. As for Bakhmut, he definitely has influence. And the new private military company is not created in order to reduce the influence of Prigozhin. He will still do his job. He had tasks in the Central African Republic, Syria, Mali, and they were well executed. Now tasks are being carried out in Ukraine, in the region of Donetsk, Donbass. Prigozhin copes with the tasks perfectly, better than other units. But Prigozhin has no particular political influence, except for those issues that arise at the front. And a new private military company is being created because the experience of Wagner's private military company has shown that this is a very good thing.
- Why were referendums urgently held and new subjects admitted to Russia?
- The logic here is extremely simple. Russian people live there, and they have always wanted to go to Russia. Those who are against Moscow left the regions earlier. And those who remained want to speak Russian, celebrate Victory Day on May 9 and live together with big Russia. In conditions when the Russian army began to retreat, there was a huge fear among the population. People have become afraid to support the Russian Federation, fearing that the Russian army will leave, and they will be repressed, and Russia will not protect them. But when the referenda took place, Russia said: “Don't be afraid, we will protect you. You are citizens of Russia." In joining the Russian Federation, the inhabitants of these territories saw salvation.
“There is a feeling that our Ministry of Culture is acting in the interests of the enemies of Russia”
- Does Russia still have chances to win?
- Yes. Russia is 5 times bigger than Ukraine. Most of the Ukrainian population could be potentially pro-Russian because they are Russian people. But in order to achieve this, it is necessary to arm the army, go forward, defeat the Ukrainian army, establish a tough, effective occupation regime and cure people. The inhabitants of Ukraine should be treated as members of a totalitarian sect who were dragged there by force. But since they are already members of a totalitarian sect, now they persuade themselves that it is right to be in this sect.
- Is that enough to win?
- We still need a quick military mobilization of the economy, society and culture. What the Ministry of Culture and those who oversee it in the presidential administration are doing today is generally unacceptable. In essence, they are sabotaging social consolidation. One gets the feeling that our Ministry of Culture is acting in the interests of Russia's enemies. For example, for the Kultura channel, there is no such abbreviation as SMO at all, despite the fact that a special military operation has been going on for almost a year. Not a single film about SMO has been made. Yes, there should already be two dozen of them!
Prior to that, the civil war in Ukraine had been going on for 8 years. Where are the films about the war, the coup? There is nothing. This is not a neutral position, this is some kind of sabotage. Huge budgets went to people who have now fled. Was it not clear that they were enemies, that they would run away? Yes, everything was clear to everyone. Why did huge state budgets go to Russia's opponents? Completely incomprehensible.
Therefore, social and cultural mobilization is needed. Here Shaman sang a couple of songs. Why is everyone talking about his songs? Because they are so brilliant? Well no. They are talked about because they are the only ones. There is almost nothing else. Yes, and the Shaman hardly breaks through. And these songs should be played every day.
- Why it happens?
- In state structures, the ruling party has been undergoing a negative selection for a long time. They took mostly gray bureaucrats who are afraid of everything, and they threw bright people out of the system.
- By the way, Putin said that we would not switch to a mobilization economy.
- He said one thing, then another.
- Do the Russian elites believe in victory? Or is Igor Strelkov right when he says that the war has already been lost in the minds of the elites?
- The Russian elites don’t believe in anything. This is the main problem. Cynicism, fundamental anti-ideology - that's what characterizes them. The elites are ready to accept both victory and defeat. Strelkov is wrong in this case. He thinks that the elites at least believe in something. No, they don't believe in anything.
- At the same time, you say that there is no split in the elites.
- Yes, there is no split. There are practically no cases when representatives of high officials left and publicly condemned the leadership of Russia. Although the intelligence services of dozens of countries around the world did a great job for this. But even from such political figures as Anatoly Chubais, who nevertheless left the country, no public anti-Russian statements were made.
But there is a threat that a split in the elites may be. Why? Because we didn't have a purge of the elites. And it needs to be done. If nothing is done, then a split will occur. Moreover, there are many potential traitors in the elites. It is no coincidence that after the announcement of the mobilization, many members of the families of the Russian elite, in contrast to the elites themselves, went abroad. But so far there is no split in the elites.
- And what about the talk about the "party of war" and the "party of peace"?
- This is written mainly by oppositional pro-American media.
Another issue is the consolidation of the elite around achieving victory. It has been resolved to a minimum. It is believed that since no one betrayed or fled, the consolidation of the elite took place. But it is not so. If the elites have not defected to the side of the enemy, this does not mean that they are consolidated in order to fight. Yes, they do not engage in sabotage, but a significant part of them believe that this is not their war. What Strelkov means is that the elites do not consider this war to be theirs. For them, this is Putin's war, the war of quilted jackets, the deep people. And the elites do not want this war, they believe that Putin was mistaken, and they will accept any outcome of the SМO. Both victory and defeat. And this, of course, is a big problem.
“There was a defeat of the pro-Western opposition. But it is quite justified, since she switched from anti-Putin positions to completely anti-Russian ones. ”
- But no matter how the elites treat the SMO, everyone needs to demonstrate public loyalty to it.
- Of course, outwardly, the elites demonstrate loyalty to the SMO, officials go to Donbass, they understand that otherwise they will not be taken into the future. But there are, for example, a number of well-known expert structures that work on grants from the presidential administration. They muttered something condemning America 2-3 times, and that was it. We thought that this was enough. In fact, this is an imitation of support.
- And what explains Dmitry Medvedev's blogging activity and what are his prospects?
- This is due to the fact that Medvedev's previous political niche was eliminated. He was a liberal in power, he had his own team. Now the pro-Western course is impossible. He has to look for new niches. Since there is a clear demand for a higher level of patriotism, toughness towards the West, he expresses it. It is in demand by the people. As I have repeatedly said, it is necessary to be tougher, tougher. There is an objective need for this. Russia's policy really needs to be tougher. Of course, not in relation to their citizens. It should be tougher on the enemies of the Russian Federation. This is what Medvedev is talking about. Sometimes overkill.
- But wasn’t it too cool to tighten the screws in 2022 when they dealt with foreign agents, came up with various punishments against political refugees?
— The nuts were not tightened at all. Vice versa. Everything is very sluggish. We must act much tougher, according to the laws of war. Yes, the pro-Western opposition was defeated. But it is quite reasonable, since she switched from anti-Putin positions to completely anti-Russian ones. People, in fact, called for terrorist attacks. Measures were taken against them, and even then they were minimal. Someone was killed? No one. Has anyone been crippled under torture? No one. I do not call for such actions. But thousands have been killed in Ukraine, and not a single one in our country. Vladimir Putin said that he does not condemn those who did not show themselves to be patriots and left Russia. Putin understands that this is also the fault of the state, which failed the patriotic education of youth.
- Is it possible in Russia to lift the moratorium on the death penalty, which is being talked about more and more often?
- Only if the situation worsens. The death penalty is counterproductive. It is clear that this is a murder, a negative. It is carried out in conditions when the state has not yet left the archaic society and has not created strong civilizational structures. Russia is out. A return to the death penalty is also possible when mass crimes begin in the form of murders and so on. We don't have it. Therefore, a return to the death penalty would be a sign that the security situation in Russia has become significantly worse.
- At the end of 2022, the State Council of Tatarstan decided that the head of the republic would be called rais, but Rustam Minnikhanov would retain the status of president until the end of his current term of office. How did RT manage to reach an agreement with Moscow and why did it still make concessions, since it agreed to allow Minnikhanov to be called president until the end of his term? And how do you like the decision to call the head of Tatarstan rais, which, for example, is considered even cooler than the president in Arab countries?
- The agreement that all the heads of the regions of Russia will be called without the prefix "president" is the formation of a single political landscape of the Russian Federation. The more united it is, the more powerful it is. The fact that Tatarstan agreed that the highest official would be called the head of the republic, and not the president, is the contribution of the Republic of Tatarstan to strengthening the unity of the Russian Federation. In response, the federal government treats such politicians, in particular, Minnikhanov, with the utmost respect. The name change has been postponed until the end of his term of office. Moscow does not want to act through the knee, through force, but prefers to act as respectfully as possible.
Another important point is related to the fact that the name "rais" is an expression of a certain peculiarity of Tatarstan and its role in Russia's relations with the large, vast Islamic world. But this name will be additional to the head of the republic in Russian. Of the changes that have taken place, it should also be noted that it will not have a mandatory requirement for proficiency in the Tatar language, the second state language of Tatarstan (such an amendment to the Constitution of Tatarstan has not yet been adopted, its consideration has been postponed to 2023 - editor's note). This makes it possible that the future leaders of the republic can be appointed not from the Republic of Tatarstan, but from the federal center.
- How long can the operation in Ukraine drag on?
- No one knows. All analysts - political, military - with their forecasts failed. Nobody really understands anything. It is possible to predict only at the tactical level what will happen in the next week or two.
- Which of the foreign countries can Russia still hope for?
- There is a powerful coalition. 50 states of the world that are participating in a hybrid war against the Russian Federation. Some of these countries with smaller populations, but most of the economy, global infrastructure oppose Russia with enthusiasm, hoping to take some of our territories and wealth for themselves. That is, the first group - the aggressors with their own interests. These are the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Poland. The second group is coercive aggressors who participate in the confrontation with Russia without enthusiasm. These include Austria, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Japan. The third group of countries are those who adhere to strict neutrality. They do not participate in anything, but they do not want to take risks. Most of these countries. Some of them are afraid for their interests. For example, oil-producing countries are well aware that the oil price cap will certainly hit them, and they are against this price ceiling. But many states are afraid of falling under secondary sanctions. The fourth group is those who adhere to a benevolent neutrality towards Moscow.
They are trying to take advantage of the situation and give Russia the opportunity to bypass Western sanctions and make money on them. These are Turkey, UAE, China, India. And there are a small number of countries that directly support the Russian Federation, since they themselves are under the aggression of Western civilization. These are Belarus, Venezuela, Iran.
— How do you assess the attitude of the former Soviet republics towards Russia today?
- Their attitude is quite simple: "Lord, if only they did not touch us." Everyone is afraid of both secondary sanctions and primary ones too. Everyone is afraid of the aggressor and knows that the main aggressor is the United States.
“The risks of a terrorist attack against the President of Russia are quite serious”
- Can China join the sanctions against the Russian Federation?
- Maybe. We did not expect at all that China would adopt an exaggerated neutrality. We wanted Beijing to take a more allied position. But he took a more neutral one.
Why have so many other countries taken this position? The main reason is that Russia is not winning. Nobody wants to become an ally of the one who is defeated. In all countries, the Western press is read. And the Western press writes that Russia is losing, that it is inevitable. The whole world really believes in it. Moreover, Russian troops were retreating from 6-7 regions. Plus, people do not understand at all why Russia sent troops and did not strike at the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What kind of military conflict is this? People around the world do not understand at all why the Russian Federation has not attacked the critical infrastructure of the enemy for so many months, and at this time the West, in fact, created a new Ukrainian army.
When Moscow began to hint at the use of tactical nuclear weapons, this too was seen as a sign of weakness. Why would a victorious country use tactical nuclear weapons? It is also seen as a sign of inexplicable weakness and a sign of Russia's future defeat.
Why is the Russian Federation not conducting a normal information war? Until now, they cannot come up with a normal language and decide how to call ours and not ours. Some allied forces. What other allied forces?! And Ukrainians are sometimes called militants, sometimes Bandera, sometimes neo-Nazis. What neo-Nazis? There are neo-Nazis, but not all of them. Here Westerners say: “Since Zelensky is a Jew, it means that it is nonsense that Russia calls him a fascist.”
But this is an elementary thing. It is necessary to repeat the formula several thousand times in different formats that this is artificial neo-fascism, in which the anti-Semitism gene has been removed, and the Russophobia gene has been inserted in its place. Such genetically modified modern Ukrainian fascism. That's all. But that's not what I'm supposed to say. This should be said by all Russian officials, all Russian media from morning to evening. Then you can reverse the argument that there is no fascism in Ukraine, because Zelensky himself is a Jew. But nobody does anything. Or those famous words "everything is going according to plan." They generally cause laughter and a feeling of inadequacy. If the political leadership is inadequate, then this is an indicator of the future defeat of Russia.
- Are negotiations on the end of the conflict possible today?
- Firstly, the case with the Istanbul negotiations, as I said, was a direct fraud. Secondly, negotiations are absolutely impossible now, because the West wants Russia's military defeat and believes that it is close to it. Therefore, the West makes super-tough demands. In fact, semi-surrender. Russia is not ready for this. Therefore negotiations are impossible. But most of the countries in the world that have not joined the sanctions really want the war to end. They want Vladimir Putin to behave not like a war-crazed maniac, but like a responsible statesman who, at the right opportunity, came to the negotiations. But Putin and Lavrov keep saying to these countries: “We are ready for negotiations. Our enemy is not."
- And under what conditions can negotiations take place?
— There are 6 key cities of the Dnieper pearl chain: Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnipro, Kharkiv. These are all Russian cities. There was an absolutely pro-Russian population. These cities constituted a significant share of the Ukrainian economy. As soon as one of these cities is taken by Russia, the possibility of negotiations will immediately open. As soon as two of them are taken, negotiations will begin. If the Russian Federation does not agree to them and takes a third city, then Macron and Scholz will secretly enter the territory of Russia, stand at the gates of the Spasskaya Tower on Red Square and catch Putin, wave through the window of his car and beg to start negotiations. The Kremlin understands this. Therefore, the offensive of the Russian army is a key condition for concluding peace.
- But so far, the leaders of the G7 have expressed their desire to condemn the President of Russia and other top leaders of the Russian state. How serious is the threat of forced regime change in Russia?
- Very significant. Westerners demonize Putin, they consider him a fiend of their own hell and think that if he is removed, they can bring Russia under their control. Therefore, they dream of removing Putin. The risks of a terrorist attack against the President of the Russian Federation are quite serious. Putin can fly somewhere, and his plane can easily be shot down. And what will Russia do then? Everything is possible. We must not forget that they miraculously did not kill the President of Ukraine. They killed the heads of Iraq, Libya. Russia is much more powerful. But Americans are not afraid of big tasks. And The Hague is quite real. We were witnesses of the collapse of the USSR. They witnessed how they captured Slobodan Milosevic. And by the way, they did not prove anything, but they killed him without giving medicine.
“There may be strikes on Moscow and on other territories of Russia. Our enemies are actively using terrorist methods.”
- What to expect from 2023? What are the main risks?
- You can only make forecasts for the winter months that hostilities will continue. Both sides hope to achieve some success in the winter. Based on the results of this period, a new alignment of forces will be determined. Perhaps then the parties will have an opportunity for negotiations. The Russian military machine may start to work, or it may stall.
But for now, there may be strikes against Moscow and other Russian territories. Our enemies actively use terrorist methods. And so far we have not given serious answers to this. How to act in these conditions? We ourselves are not ready for terrorist attacks. But problems have to be solved somehow. To stop terrorist attacks against Russia and missile attacks on Donbass, attacks on the infrastructure of the Kyiv regime must be stronger. So far, the Russian army is not hitting terrorists enough. If we do not respond, then the terrorist war situation will develop more and more. Therefore, the threat of terrorist attacks certainly exists. This serious threat will constantly rise.
The main risk is defeat in the military conflict in Ukraine. Russia has already taken several steps towards its defeat. First, the failure of a special military operation in terms of taking control of most of the territory of Ukraine. Then the Russian Federation fell into several time traps, which I have already mentioned. Russia, with a huge delay, takes the necessary decisions such as military mobilization, mobilization of the economy. The mobilization of society has not been done at all. There is a threat of slowing down the modernization of the country. Our model of modernization has broken down because we carried it out with the help of the West, based on its experience. Now it is almost impossible. So a different model is needed. We don't have it. This challenge is of a strategic nature.
— That is, the situation for Russia is very critical?
- Yes. If we are defeated in the conflict with Ukraine, then hostilities can go to the territory of the Russian Federation with the threat of occupation of the country, dividing it into several parts, up to the collapse of Russian statehood. The defeat of Russia will also lead to a sharp decline in Moscow's status in the world. All countries, down to one, will be forced to change their attitude towards the Russian Federation to a tougher one and less regard for our interests.
Therefore, the threat of Russia's defeat is the most serious, essential and main. The defeat will lead to a catastrophe for the Russian statehood and, possibly, to the liquidation of the Russian Federation as an independent state in general. Everything else is not so essential and is a form of expression of defeat.
- Is there a potential for the Ukrainian conflict to escalate into a third world war?
- Of course. Some receding steps have now been taken. But if the Russian army moves forward and there is a refusal to negotiate, perhaps NATO will take more decisive steps. The opportunists in the US and British intelligence services who are responsible for this conflict are teetering on the edge. We must not forget that they have gone beyond the limits of a conventional war waged according to international laws. They started a terrorist war.
In general, the main problem of 2022 for humanity is that it has taken several steps towards self-destruction. In fact, a proxy war has begun between the two nuclear superpowers. Threats about the use of nuclear weapons were heard throughout the year. Hundreds of millions of people are thinking about how to survive in a nuclear catastrophe. Bomb shelters are being checked all over the world. And only a flurry of calls from world leaders to Washington and Moscow forced the two nuclear superpowers to behave more restrained in nuclear rhetoric by the end of the year. But the basic problem remains - the most powerful power in the world is trying to subjugate and politically destroy the second power in terms of nuclear potential. This can lead to such an acute crisis that a nuclear war between Russia and the United States will become possible, which will destroy all of humanity.
Olga Vandysheva.