Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Mehmed Ali

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The problem isn't just retreating before encirclement it is doing so before the pincer tightens; if the pincer becomes too tight Ukrainian forces will not only have a harder time resupplying the front but also a difficult time withdrawing Ukrainian forces in a safe manner.
Von Pauls was missing you strategic acumen 1943.
 

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UA: *Immediately* bans exit for every male between 16 and 60, immediately starts recruiting prisoners (including notorious war criminals such as "Tornado"),
Ukraine just pardoned war veterans who are willing o serve, while Russia is sending tens of thousands of murderers, rapers and maniacs as cannon fodder.

There is no any comparison here.

Even after mobilization Ukrainian army is smaller tan REGULAR Russian army. But there are also 340 K Rosgvaria, so called LDNR (which was fully mobilized), "governers brigades", Vagner, Redut, Patriot and other uncounted mercenary thugs, 320 thousands mobiks...

In all wars Russian tactics was zerg rush. This one is no exception.
 

Mailman

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Oryx just
UA: *Immediately* bans exit for every male between 16 and 60, immediately starts recruiting prisoners (including notorious war criminals such as "Tornado"), places conscription officers at entries/exits to all major cities, eventually starts handing out conscription notices AT GUNPOINT to literally anyone they find, now even including those previously exempt due to family commitments, disabilities etc. Wrestling down and dragging away those who resist.

"No mobilization, it's all fine and dandy"

RU: Standard small-scale mobilization *half a year in* of people who are in the pool, ie people with prior legit military experience. Paper notice, no physical coercion. Some people leave the country (1) but nobody tries to stop them. Some return later and face no issues. Some mistakes are made (some people not suitable are called up) because the law they went by is 20+ year old and some registries hadn't been adequately updated, but these mistakes are immediately acknowledged even by the top brass and subsequently rectified.

"Literal Volksturm-esque Nazi last stand"

So far, far less than the U.S. dodgers during Vietnam. My only concern at this point is if Ukraine gets minuteman ICBM nuclear warheads or Poland gets involved. You already saw it yourself 300k got involved in the operation which lasted for 2 months, withdrew and left 80k in the special operation zone. 320k reservists get involved but they have not been used yet while we see them get trained on T-90s, some T-14s, etc while we see Soledar get taken until it will be a matter of time for Ugledar, Seversk, bakhmut and kherson to be taken. There is no magical powers AFAIK for western tanks saving them other than making it clear if they need western tanks now than before than they must have alot of destroyed equipment. You are going to cry to me again that its bullshit, so I will show a western source that shows a map of what amount of Ukrainian troops and russian troops are involved the special operation zone but of course you will go ignore that as well. So I will leave you happy that Ukraine is winning.
Just to add some comparison regarding equipment losses by Oryx, in Ukraine during 2022. This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, mortars, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list.

Russia - 9001, of which: destroyed: 5694, damaged: 242, abandoned: 306, captured: 2759​

Tanks (1671, of which destroyed: 989, damaged: 77, abandoned: 60, captured: 545)​


Ukraine - 2887, of which: destroyed: 1821, damaged: 134, abandoned: 71, captured: 859​

Tanks (453, of which destroyed: 269, damaged: 24, abandoned: 16, captured: 144)​


Seems to me that Russia is the biggest tank provider for Ukraine, NATO has to work hard to match up.

Regarding the human lives lost, there is an OSINT analysis about Russian losses during first week of the invasion: https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-c...for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/
 
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blackjack

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Ukraine just pardoned war veterans who are willing o serve, while Russia is sending tens of thousands of murderers, rapers and maniacs as cannon fodder.

There is no any comparison here.

Even after mobilization Ukrainian army is smaller tan REGULAR Russian army. But there are also 340 K Rosgvaria, so called LDNR (which was fully mobilized), "governers brigades", Vagner, Redut, Patriot and other uncounted mercenary thugs, 320 thousands mobiks...

In all wars Russian tactics was zerg rush. This one is no exception.
For some reason you dont want to talk about how many Russians are involved in the special operation zone or how Wagner is kicking the shit out of AFU in comparison to their other units being barely involved.
Just to add some comparison regarding equipment losses by Oryx, in Ukraine during 2022. This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, mortars, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list.

Russia - 9001, of which: destroyed: 5694, damaged: 242, abandoned: 306, captured: 2759​

Tanks (1671, of which destroyed: 989, damaged: 77, abandoned: 60, captured: 545)​

Ukraine - 2887, of which: destroyed: 1821, damaged: 134, abandoned: 71, captured: 859​

Tanks (453, of which destroyed: 269, damaged: 24, abandoned: 16, captured: 144)​

I want to see how brainwashed you are 1st depending how you answer this question. Do you believe the ghost of kyiv and that a ukrainian babushka shotdown a russian aircraft with a jar of pickles? I believe these are the same journalists that write the Oryx.

Oryx is more of a joke than it is anything factual, I mean come on dude I dont even think you can conviince special ed users but a better chance with users that are born with an extra chromosome here. Why do Ukrainian troops say they lose 5 for every 1 Russian how come the AFU is getting pushed back by a smaller force? Why is AFU at gun point trying to assimilate everyone else to get mobilized I mean come on Ukraine's casualties are so far less than Russia, right? Based on the so-called losses, Russians would have been using reserves not ukrainians getting their shit pushed in by a bunch of convicts in different directions which ukraine claim 75% have been wiped out lol. Ukraine statistics are a joke especially when they say they have intercepted more missiles before than what Russia actually launched. Tell me how come the AFU which has more troops than Wagner is getting their shit pushed in by Wagner?

1675379004334.png

Do you want to know what size force Wagner is and what size force the AFU units that are being pushed back?
 

Gary

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Drills in Chernobyl and Kharkiv, the threat of renewed offensive tied the UA to commit troops away from Donbass


My bet is the next spring offensive is directed at Zaporozhia. Before another pause directed at expelling all Russians from Donbass

 

blackjack

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17:06 the question, 17:30 the bombshell. I feel bad for willy OAM because he seems like an average defense hub user and looks like he was trying not to cry speaking to the soldier.
 

JES

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For some reason you dont want to talk about how many Russians are involved in the special operation zone or how Wagner is kicking the shit out of AFU in comparison to their other units being barely involved.
So why don't you tell us? How many Russians are involved according to your sources?

I want to see how brainwashed you are 1st depending how you answer this question. Do you believe the ghost of kyiv and that a ukrainian babushka shotdown a russian aircraft with a jar of pickles? I believe these are the same journalists that write the Oryx.
No, I don't believe in the ghost of Kyiv. There is a difference between social media lowest category rumors and a site that actually goes through documenting images of lost equipment.

Why do Ukrainian troops say they lose 5 for every 1 Russian how come the AFU is getting pushed back by a smaller force?
I have not seen any reliable Ukrainian source claiming this. It would be highly unusual for one side to lose five times more in modern warfare. I believe Russians lost about that times more in the Winter War in Finland 1939, but they were completely unequipped troops, which most froze to death.

How come the AFU is getting pushed back by a smaller force?
I don't believe AFU is being pushed back by a smaller force. What makes you think that is the case? Typically you need a 3:1 advantage to be successful at counter-attacks. If this war has shown anything, it's that the number of soldiers on the ground matters. AFU was having success in late summer when Russia had not mobilized and now after Russia's 300K plus covert mobilization Russia is the one making progress. Guess why? Because they likely have more troops now or at minimum the same numbers as Ukraine.

Why is AFU at gun point trying to assimilate everyone else to get mobilized I mean come on Ukraine's casualties are so far less than Russia, right? Based on the so-called losses, Russians would have been using reserves not ukrainians getting their shit pushed in by a bunch of convicts in different directions which ukraine claim 75% have been wiped out lol.
Some geographical knowledge might help you. Ukraine is a country that had 43 million population. After Russia's 2014 annexations it was more like 37 million and after losing some more territory in 2022 and probably a few million at minimum fleeing, you are looking at maybe slightly over 30 million, which would be the pool to get fighting age men from. What makes it more challenging is that Ukraine has a bad demographic situation with the highest number of men being in their 40's. With this background, how can it be a surprise to you that Ukraine would have to more aggressively mobilize than 140 million Russia?

Tell me how come the AFU which has more troops than Wagner is getting their shit pushed in by Wagner?
They are being pushed back locally. Do you know the exact number of troops that are involved in the fights for every village? Wagner may draw more troops than Ukraine locally to certain areas without having more troops globally.

Do you want to know what size force Wagner is and what size force the AFU units that are being pushed back?
Why don't you tell us the numbers then instead of making rhetorical questions.
 

blackjack

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So why don't you tell us? How many Russians are involved according to your sources?
in the operation zone 80k https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/

There is a difference between social media lowest category rumors and a site that actually goes through documenting images of lost equipment.
I am assuming you believe they are creating reserve units and all the videos of the AFU forcing civilians at gun point to mobilize constitutes no significant losses on their side. At that point the casualties have to be way bad than what Oryx states. Hell, I just posted a video about 20 minutes ago of actual soldiers telling different things than what Oryx claims I trust them than being hurt later that no fairy tales in real life exist.
I don't believe AFU is being pushed back by a smaller force. What makes you think that is the case? Typically you need a 3:1 advantage to be successful at counter-attacks. If this war has shown anything, it's that the number of soldiers on the ground matters. AFU was having success in late summer when Russia had not mobilized and now after Russia's 300K plus covert mobilization Russia is the one making progress. Guess why? Because they likely have more troops now or at minimum the same numbers as Ukraine.
you dont? lets do some math or math that is better than Ukrainian math lol.
1675385323491.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Joint_Military_Symbology X means 2,000-20,000, 3 lines 500 to 3,000, 2 lines 300 to 1000, one line 60 to 250, At most Russian troops in this area is 7,700 at the lowest, 67,000 at the highest. To be fair the blue boxes closest to pink line at highest counting 14 X lines(yes there is more but behind the other blue boxes), 1 3 bar and 2 2 bars would be at lowest 15,100 at hghest 285,000 but that can be debated as way higher because i did not count the blue boxes with Xs behind them, so pretty much this is one region and the other regions are the same and as you know it the Russians are pushing them back, so explain to me how the fuck do the russians have higher casualties?

in case you did not see my earlier post look at 17:07 and see the response at 17:30, Ukrainian troops being interviewed by western journalists are even bigger doomers.
Some geographical knowledge might help you. Ukraine is a country that had 43 million population. After Russia's 2014 annexations it was more like 37 million and after losing some more territory in 2022 and probably a few million at minimum fleeing, you are looking at maybe slightly over 30 million, which would be the pool to get fighting age men from. What makes it more challenging is that Ukraine has a bad demographic situation with the highest number of men being in their 40's. With this background, how can it be a surprise to you that Ukraine would have to more aggressively mobilize than 140 million Russia?
its a surprise because only 80K russians are in the operation zone and they have done nothing yet with the 300k reserves because I see 4 Xs in 3 different places and excluding NATO stating the 4 X is 100,000 to US it means 80k to 320k. Ukrainian civilians are already being forced at gunpoint to mobilize, while this is still considered a small scale mobilization by Russia which we have not seen the reserves yet take the offensive and that is excluding their huge growing active duty pool, so yes i see this as a big deal.
They are being pushed back locally. Do you know the exact number of troops that are involved in the fights for every village? Wagner may draw more troops than Ukraine locally to certain areas without having more troops globally.
they are geting pushed back to soon reach Seversk, Bakhmut, Ugledar, kharkiv, kherson Soledar is already taken, I already provided an early source how many are involved by looking at unit sites.
Why don't you tell us the numbers then instead of making rhetorical questions.
see 3rd response.
 

blackjack

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1675386756801.png

1675386829168.png

1675386871021.png


1675386936814.png

Here is your Oryx bros:LOL:
 
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Gary

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I laughed

haha maybe spriter should just stay making Sucky-57 propaganda


MAJOR KRISTIN "BEO" WOLFE​

Major Kristin Wolfe is the Commander, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team, 388th Fighter Wing, Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The mission of the F-35A Lightning II Demonstration team is to showcase the unique aerial capabilities of the Air Force’s most advanced 5th generation multi-role stealth fighter, the F-35A Lightning II, as well as highlight the history of the Air Force’s service through heritage formation flights. Additionally, she provides operational oversight and direction for the 13-personnel team, to include maintenance, aircrew flight equipment, and public affairs Airmen.
Major Wolfe entered the Air Force in 2011 after receiving her commission from the U.S. Air Force Reserve Officer Training Program at the University of Alabama. She is an experienced fighter pilot with more than 800 flying hours in the F-22A Raptor and F-35A Lightning II. Her flying assignments include Undergraduate Pilot Training at Laughlin AFB, Texas, and fighter training in the F-22A at Langley AFB, Va., and operational assignments at Langley AFB, Va., and Hill Air Force Base, Utah.

210514-F-XXXXX-1001.JPG


 

Mailman

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For some reason you dont want to talk about how many Russians are involved in the special operation zone or how Wagner is kicking the shit out of AFU in comparison to their other units being barely involved.

I want to see how brainwashed you are 1st depending how you answer this question. Do you believe the ghost of kyiv and that a ukrainian babushka shotdown a russian aircraft with a jar of pickles? I believe these are the same journalists that write the Oryx.

Oryx is more of a joke than it is anything factual, I mean come on dude I dont even think you can conviince special ed users but a better chance with users that are born with an extra chromosome here. Why do Ukrainian troops say they lose 5 for every 1 Russian how come the AFU is getting pushed back by a smaller force? Why is AFU at gun point trying to assimilate everyone else to get mobilized I mean come on Ukraine's casualties are so far less than Russia, right? Based on the so-called losses, Russians would have been using reserves not ukrainians getting their shit pushed in by a bunch of convicts in different directions which ukraine claim 75% have been wiped out lol. Ukraine statistics are a joke especially when they say they have intercepted more missiles before than what Russia actually launched. Tell me how come the AFU which has more troops than Wagner is getting their shit pushed in by Wagner?

View attachment 53471
Do you want to know what size force Wagner is and what size force the AFU units that are being pushed back?
Well, if the brainwashed one makes he's opinion based on documents and other objective sources rather than wishful thinking, then - yes, I am officially brainwashed and proud to be one. :)

Gosh, all my childhood I heard oxymoron-like slogans like "Советские миролюбивые ядерные ракеты" (Soviet peace-loving nuclear missiles) and "мы желаем мир" ( the word "мир" has two meaning in Russian: peace and world, so "we want peace" or "we want the world"). Even the first name of Russian leader, Владимир/Vladimir, carries hidden meaning: Влади мир ("rule the world" or "rule the peace", boths having the same meaning). So, yes, I have been brainwashed throughout my youth, what can simple man like me do about it?

As I understand from the messages of my honoured opponent, Wagner criminals are now the pride and glory of the second army of the world? Happy for you, Russians! How big amount of such formidable elite soldiers are hidden in prisons, what do you think? Keeping them in prison is probably one of those clever tricks mr. Putin is so famous for? Brainwashed as I am, I tend to think about them more like rapists and robbers, but no- they are secret war heroes, practicing their secret warfare skills in prisons. Those guys repell bullets with their hats, why they need tanks or equipment? Yo u think, loitering munition can take them down? Bombs dropped from drones? Cold coming from the West? How naive one can be, huh? I am shamed for being so brainswahsed, I truly am.
 

Nykyus

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Russians write https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/n...-ssha-predlagali-rossii-20-territorii-ukraini:

Media: The CIA offered Russia 20% of the territory of Ukraine in exchange for the termination of a special military operation
CIA Director William Burns offered Moscow and Kiev an option for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, involving the transfer of 20% of Ukrainian territory to Russia, according to the Swiss publication Neue Zurcher Zeitung.

According to him, US President Joe Biden instructed Burns in January to convey this proposal to the authorities of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, after which he allegedly visited Moscow and Kiev. At the same time, both sides refused this offer, the sources of the publication reported.

After the failure of the CIA chief's mission, Biden decided to approve the supply of Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the newspaper notes.

Deputy press secretary of the White House National Security Council Sean Davitt, in a comment to Newsweek weekly, called this information "inaccurate" and an unnamed CIA representative "completely false." At the same time, Burns' secret trip to Kiev earlier in January was confirmed by The Washington Post. A similar trip by the Director of American intelligence to Moscow was not reported.

On January 25, the United States announced the transfer of 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. On the same day, Germany announced the delivery of 14 Leopard 2 tanks. In a statement, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Berlin will also allow allies to send their Leopard 2 to Ukraine.

Against the background of reports about the transfer of tanks to Kiev, the Kremlin pointed to the strengthening of the direct involvement of Western countries in the conflict in Ukraine. On January 26, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov also said that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky had long ceased to be a possible interlocutor for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The Russian Foreign Ministry said on January 30 that negotiations with Kiev and its "puppeteers" after the decision on the supply of tanks are meaningless.
 

Kathirz

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It seems today there are "two" EU MoD meetings about sending tanks to Ukraine, to me appears like a fight between Germany and Poland, as they are going to host its respective meetings, like a counterprogram. Spain will be on both.

So there comes the German answer:


Poland is doing a great job pushing Germany.
 

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