Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Turko]

Russia surrounded by an offensive group - OPU

13 November 2021, 16:09

An accumulation of Russian military equipment near the Ukrainian border

After the completion of the exercises in the second half of 2021, only the personnel of the Russian army returned to the places of permanent deployment, and military equipment, including Iskander tanks and missile systems, remained, Zelensky said.

The Russian armed forces are constantly holding a powerful offensive grouping around Ukraine, Roman Mashovets, deputy head of the President's Office for National Security and Defense, said in an interview with the Military Times, according to the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate.

In the second half of this year, Russian troops conducted a complex of large-scale command and staff exercises near the state border of Ukraine. After the completion of the exercises, only personnel returned to the places of permanent deployment, and military equipment, including Iskander tanks and missile systems, remained, Mashovets said.

Thanks to this, Russia in a very short time can carry out the redeployment of personnel and form strike groups ready for offensive actions on the territory of Ukraine, the representative of the OP noted.

Bidding has begun. Press about the "invasion" of Ukraine

“Russia, with its actions and armed aggression, daily undermines the foundations of a democratic world, and Ukraine now not only has a military conflict with the Russian Federation on its territories, but actually acts as a big wall to protect the whole world,” he stressed.

The pulling of Russian troops to the Ukrainian border was noticed at the end of October. Ukraine has denied the movement of forces for two weeks, but this week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about 100,000 troops.

The West fears that Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine. In the United States, they are warning that they are ready to react.

Россия окружила наступательной группировкой - ОПУ

После завершения учений во второй половине 2021 года в места постоянной дислокации вернулся только личный состав армии РФ, а военная техника, в том числе танки и ракетные системы Искандер остались, отметили у Зеленского.

korrespondent.net

 

[Turko]

Day in Donbass: two dead, one wounded

13 November 2021, 08:07

The place where the soldiers were blown up


Over the past day, the separatists have opened fire on military positions eight times, and once since the beginning of this day.

Over the past day in the Donbass, two soldiers died, another was wounded, according to the morning report of the Joint Forces Operations headquarters on Saturday, November 13.

"As a result of the explosion on an unknown enemy device, two servicemen were injured incompatible with life. One soldier was wounded by a gunshot. He was provided with medical assistance and evacuated to a hospital. The serviceman's health is satisfactory," the message says.

Over the past day, 8 violations of the ceasefire were recorded, two of which were with the use of weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.

The separatists reportedly used 122-mm artillery, grenade launchers of various systems, 120-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and other small arms.

Since the beginning of the current day, one violation of the ceasefire regime has been recorded. In the direction of Troitsky, the enemy fired from heavy anti-tank grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and other small arms.

 

[Turko]

The Pentagon explained the exercises with Ukraine in the Black Sea
13 November 2021, 18:51

The Naval Forces of Ukraine also take part in the exercises of the United States, Turkey and Romania in the Black Sea.
Military exercises, which are being conducted by the navies of several NATO countries in the Black Sea, are a key component of an integrated containment strategy, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on his Twitter account on November 13.

He recalled that he had repeatedly called the concept of integrated deterrence as an effective way to deter military threats in the future.

"One of the key components of a truly integrated containment strategy is working closely with allies and partners around the world through joint ground, air and sea exercises," the Pentagon chief wrote, attaching several photographs of the exercise to his post.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1459526715039010820

 

[Saithan]

NATO stands by Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup on border: Chief

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Monday that the western military alliance stands by Ukraine amid a large and unusual deployment of...

www.dailysabah.com

Is this a Joke ? NATO is going to wait until RU makes it's move. And then just condemn politically.

 

[Bogeyman]

U.S., Allies Weigh Reprisals If Russia Moves Against Ukraine​

The U.S. and its European allies are discussing potential responses if Russian President Vladimir Putin takes military action against Ukraine, including fresh sanctions on Moscow and further security assistance for Kyiv.

Senior U.S. officials have raised the idea of a package of measures in discussions with European counterparts over the past week, telling them the Biden administration is already working up a menu of options to counter possible moves by Russia, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The planning is at an early stage even within the U.S., and would require more discussions before seeking the support of other countries. But it comes after U.S. officials raised the alarm that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine as tensions flare between Moscow and the European Union over everything from migrants to energy supplies. The Kremlin denies any such intention.

The effort is also aimed at steering Putin away from further aggression on Ukraine by making clear there would be a strong and coordinated response, two of the people said. They declined to specify what might be included, but with heavy sanctions already on many parts of the Russian economy including its defense and finance sectors, one area left to attack might be energy. A White House spokesperson declined to comment.

Putin has parked large numbers of troops near the Ukraine border previously, including earlier this year when he sent more than 100,000 troops, as well as tanks, warplanes and warships, to Crimea and other areas. He resisted for weeks as Kyiv and western nations called on him to deescalate, before pulling troops back in late April.

The latest frictions come against a broader backdrop. Not only are troops massing again (Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Moscow was “concentrating nearly 100,000 soldiers” near the border), but record-high gas prices leave Europe vulnerable to Russian largess on supplies. EU members including Poland have also accused Russia of encouraging a refugee crisis as its ally Belarus funnels migrants toward the bloc.

That spurred two phone calls between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Putin last week. Other European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have also said they plan to speak with the Russian leader. U.S. President Joe Biden and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen discussed the Ukraine buildup when they met in Washington last week.

“We see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Monday. “This military build-up also reduces any warning time between a decision in Russia before they’re able to conduct a military aggressive action.”

The Kremlin Friday dismissed talk of a potential invasion as “unfounded,” saying troop movements on its own territory were a domestic matter. People close to the Kremlin have said Putin aims to send a clear message to the West that Moscow won’t tolerate any further expansion of NATO military ties with Ukraine, but isn’t seeking a wider war.

The spring crisis on the border eased after Biden called Putin and offered a summit, which took place in June. But Ukrainian officials say the Kremlin didn’t pull back all of the forces it massed at that time.

A similar package of possible countermeasures to the one now under discussion was developed by the U.S. at the time but not implemented, according to two of the people. The EU assigned its foreign affairs service to craft options earlier this year to respond to any further Russian moves but those efforts stalled, one person added.

This time, the U.S. is preparing to share with allies more of the information that’s triggered its worries, to build support for a joint response, according to two of the people.

The U.S. dispatched Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns to visit Moscow in early November to convey its concerns about the buildup. He spoke by phone with Putin but there was no apparent sign of change in direction from the Kremlin.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine first blew up in 2014, when Moscow annexed the Crimean Peninsula and backed a separatist rebellion in the east of the country. That triggered sweeping U.S. and European sanctions, but the conflict has continued, killing more than 13,000 people in east Ukraine.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Anastasius]

NATO stands by Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup on border: Chief

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Monday that the western military alliance stands by Ukraine amid a large and unusual deployment of...

www.dailysabah.com

Is this a Joke ? NATO is going to wait until RU makes it's move. And then just condemn politically.

Of course they won't. NATO, at most, will supply weapons to Ukraine and slap some more sanctions on Russia (or more specifically, on certain individuals in Russia, because the sanctions don't target Russia's economy as a whole) which most Russians will barely notice anyway and then watch as Ukraine goes down in flames.

The only one that has the greatest probability of fighting for Ukraine is Turkey because of economic and political interests but that's not guaranteed. The likes of Poland might scream loudly about "Slavic brotherhood" but if you've been around as many Slav-populated forums as I have, you'll notice that they aren't really as opposed to Russia as you might think.

 

[Saithan]

Of course they won't. NATO, at most, will supply weapons to Ukraine and slap some more sanctions on Russia (or more specifically, on certain individuals in Russia, because the sanctions don't target Russia's economy as a whole) which most Russians will barely notice anyway and then watch as Ukraine goes down in flames.

The only one that has the greatest probability of fighting for Ukraine is Turkey because of economic and political interests but that's not guaranteed. The likes of Poland might scream loudly about "Slavic brotherhood" but if you've been around as many Slav-populated forums as I have, you'll notice that they aren't really as opposed to Russia as you might think.

And we should stay out, just providing them with arms they pay for. It would be better for us if europe gets embroiled in eastern frontier (let’s call it that).

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1461047486076923910

 

[Bogeyman]

U.S. Warns Allies of Possible Russian Incursion as Troops Amass Near Ukraine​

American intelligence officials are warning allies that there is a short window of time to prevent Russia from taking military action in Ukraine, pushing European countries to work with the United States to develop a package of economic and military measures to deter Moscow, according to American and European officials.
Russia has not yet decided what it intends to do with the troops it has amassed near Ukraine, American officials said, but the buildup is being taken seriously and the United States is not assuming it is a bluff.
Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, traveled to Brussels this week to brief NATO ambassadors about American intelligence on the situation and a possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Ms. Haines’s trip was long planned and covered a variety issues, but the growing concerns over Russia were among the short-term threats discussed, according to officials briefed on them.
The United States has also been sharing intelligence with Ukraine. And on Friday, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s military, to discuss Russia’s “concerning activity in the area,” the Joint Staff said in a statement.

American and British intelligence are increasingly convinced that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is considering military action to take control of a larger swath of Ukraine, or to destabilize the country enough to usher in a more pro-Moscow government.
American and allied officials sounded an alarm in April, as Moscow built up forces near its border with Ukraine. But the current buildup, which appears to involve more troops and sophisticated weaponry, has engendered more concerns — particularly as Russia has moved to jam Ukrainian surveillance drones. Hostilities have also spiked since Ukraine used one of its drones to attack a separatist howitzer, prompting Russia to scramble jets.

“It’s not inevitable that there’s going to be an increase of kinetic conflict, but all the pieces are in place,” said Frederick B. Hodges, the former top U.S. Army commander in Europe now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. “If we, the West, look like we are not cohesive and ready to work together, then the risk of the Kremlin making a terrible miscalculation goes up.”
American intelligence officials have told allies that Mr. Putin has grown frustrated with the peace process set up by France and Germany in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and engineered a separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine.
Some former officials say Mr. Putin could be intent on securing a land route between eastern Ukraine and Crimea. And American analysts believe Mr. Putin sees the next few months as a unique moment to act.

​

With Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany leaving the world stage, there is less pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. Without a coalition in Germany, there is little leadership in Berlin.
Rising energy prices have made Europe more dependent on cheap Russian gas supplies, especially as winter deepens and gas reserves in Europe drop further. Fear of losing access to Russian energy could limit Europe’s support of tough sanctions.
Russia has already begun manipulating energy supplies in Europe, a Western official based in Brussels said. When energy prices rise, the official said, Mr. Putin feels he has more latitude to act.
And with rising prices and limited supplies, Russia has more money to pay for military operations, according to current and former officials.
American officials want to create a “common prescription” of actions the United States and Europe would take, should Russia move against Ukraine militarily. While there are parts of Russia’s economy that have not been subjected to sanctions, the United States will need to build support in Europe for new measures to be effective.
On Thursday, as Ms. Haines was leaving Brussels, the Senate confirmed Julianne Smith to become the next U.S. ambassador to NATO. Her nomination had been held up for months by Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, complicating American efforts to form a united response to the growing threat to Ukraine.
At NATO, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has offered his own warnings about Russia. Speaking in Berlin on Friday, Mr. Stoltenberg described the “large and unusual” concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border. “It is urgent that Russia shows transparency about its military build up, de-escalate and reduce tensions,” he said.

Russia sent troops to a site in Crimea called Cape Opuk and moved a larger number to a former warehouse complex near the Russian town of Pavlovsk. The deployments put Russian tanks, howitzers and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles within striking distance of Ukraine’s border, according to a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Earlier in the week, Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, also said the Russian troop buildup was a matter of concern. “We’re not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to, but these movements certainly have our attention,” he said.
The growing worry about Russian intentions comes after William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, traveled to Moscow this month at the behest of President Biden to warn against any action against Ukraine.
American officials warned Russia that using its forces to intimidate Ukraine or take more territory was unacceptable and would prompt a strong reaction from the West.
While some cautioned that it was too soon to judge Moscow’s reactions, others briefed on the meeting believed Russia was not taking seriously the threat of a tough response.
Intelligence officials are still wrestling with the possible connections between the migrant crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border and Russia’s military buildup on the border with Ukraine.
Intelligence officials have not found direct involvement of Russia in the Belarusian border crisis, and some believe President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus engineered it with little or no input from Russia.

On Friday, the Polish government announced that Ms. Haines had met in Warsaw with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and other officials to discuss security on NATO’s “eastern flank.” The meetings, the government said, were conducted at the request of the United States.
Mr. Putin has a long history of using drama in neighboring countries to advance his own interests. NATO countries, said the Western official, need to be mindful that the Belarusian crisis and troop buildup on Ukraine’s border are occurring at the same time.
“Putin is very fleet of foot,” said Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon official. “I think he likes diversionary things. This plays into his hands. All eyes are on the Belarus border. Meanwhile, he is putting together what he feels might need to go into Ukraine.”
Any response to Russia’s deployments should be carefully calibrated to avoid escalating the situation and further endangering Ukraine, American and European officials said.
“We have to be ready to be tough,” Mr. Townsend said. “We don’t have to go bomb something. But we have to be clever in how we show our military capability.”

U.S. Warns Allies of Possible Russian Incursion as Troops Amass Near Ukraine (Published 2021)

Western intelligence officials are increasingly convinced that the Russian president wants to take control of a larger swath of territory.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Combat-Master]

Ukraine's intelligence agency chief: Russia is preparing for an attack by the end of January. An attack would likely involve:
- Artillery and airstrikes
- Amphibious and airborne landings
- Incursion through Belarus
- More than 92.000 Russian troops are amassed around Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462372085771165701

 

[GoatsMilk]

Turkey has to send troops in support of Ukraine. You let Ukraine fall to Russia, you will look back at these events and wished you had intervened when you had a chance.

The Poles are good at insulting the Turks and holding migrants behind barbed wire, but they won't lift a finger to fight Russia in Ukraine.

 

[Turko]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462137476911448064

U.S. patrol boats sent to beef up Ukrainian Navy near Black Sea

A ship carrying two refitted former U.S. Coast Guard patrol boats designed to beef up the Ukrainian Navy transited the Dardanelles strait on Saturday days after Ukraine said it feared Russia might be preparing an attack on it.

www.reuters.com

 

[Turko]

One shelling per day in the OOS, no losses

OLGA YANIVI, 21 November 2021,

Day in OOS

The enemy fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from anti-tank grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

In the Donbas, in the area of the Joint Forces operation, one violation of the ceasefire was recorded over the past day. This was reported by the JFO headquarters in the morning report.

“In the direction of Sand, the enemy opened fire from heavy anti-tank grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

It is noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine opened a response

 

[Saithan]

One shelling per day in the OOS, no losses

OLGA YANIVI, 21 November 2021,

Day in OOS

The enemy fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from anti-tank grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

In the Donbas, in the area of the Joint Forces operation, one violation of the ceasefire was recorded over the past day. This was reported by the JFO headquarters in the morning report.

“In the direction of Sand, the enemy opened fire from heavy anti-tank grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

It is noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine opened a response

I don’t see Ukraine being proactive. Either it’s because they’re not ready or they’re waiting for something.
I don’t think Russia is going to attack Ukraine through Belarus, that’s the same as Belarus declaring war.

Turkey should stay out of it. Send and equip them with atgm and such, but stay away.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I don’t see Ukraine being proactive. Either it’s because they’re not ready or they’re waiting for something.
I don’t think Russia is going to attack Ukraine through Belarus, that’s the same as Belarus declaring war.

Turkey should stay out of it. Send and equip them with atgm and such, but stay away.

Stay away today and tomorrow Russia will come to Turkey. Russia has engaged herself at every opportunity to oppose Turkey. Whether its the black sea, the caucuses, central Asia, the Balkans, the middle east or north Africa.

Why we would want to stay away from Ukraine when the enemy does so much against Turkey is very silly.

Geopolitically speaking Turkey should be doing everything to help bulk up Poland and Ukraine.

 

[Turko]

I don’t see Ukraine being proactive. Either it’s because they’re not ready or they’re waiting for something.

There's nothing to do but wait in calm. Ukraine is not the aggressor. The country tries to keep peace while defending its sovereignty.

 

[Turko]

Kremlin on "attack" on Ukraine: "artificially whipped up hysteria"



Dmitry Peskov

The statements of the intelligence services of the United States and Ukraine about the probable invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine are illogical and not entirely decent, Peskov said.

The statements of the American and Ukrainian intelligence services about the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine are "artificially whipped up hysteria" that can lead to provocations. This was stated by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

"This hysteria is being whipped up artificially. Those who brought their armed forces overseas accuse them of some unusual military activity on our territory. That is, the United States of America," Peskov said.

In his opinion, such statements are illogical and not entirely decent.

Кремль о нападении на Украину: искусственно нагнетаемая истерика

Заявление разведок США и Украины о вероятном вторжении российских войск в Украину являются нелогичными и не совсем приличными, заявил Песков.

korrespondent.net

 

[Che-40]

Russia is certainly a historical adversary of Turkey, but the same can be said about the western bloc.
The actions of this western bloc with the aim of destabilizing turkey or even dividing it are indisputable,

- Support for pkk separatisites.
- Sanctions and destabilization of the economy.
- Embargo on certain sensitive technologies (civil and military).
- Unconditional and very generous military support for Turkey's regional adversaries, etc....

It is true that turkey has no interest in ukraine falling, but it has even less interest in going into destructive war with russia, where the only real winner is the other enemy, the Western bloc.
The only viable option in my humble opinion, it is the acceleration of the sanctuarization of turkey territory (including nuclear weapons).

 

[Turko]

Danilov explained why the Russian Federation needs troops near Ukraine

SOFIA BROVCHENKO, 21 November 2021, 20:50



Russia aggravates the situation for raising the stakes in the negotiations - Danilov

Ukraine will not allow a repeat of the 2014 situation and will be able to give an adequate response to Russia, Danilov assured.

Russia is pulling military forces to the Ukrainian border in order to have an advantage in the upcoming negotiations. This was stated by the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov, the press service of the National Security and Defense Council reported on Sunday, November 21.

"By pulling troops to the Ukrainian border, Russia is trying to exacerbate the security situation in the region as much as possible in order to raise the stakes at the table of future negotiations," Danilov said at a meeting with representatives of the US Congress on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum.

According to Danilov, Russia's actions and statements, as well as testing of the latest missile defense systems on its own satellites, indicate that there are no longer any rules for the Kremlin.

At the same time, Ukraine will not allow a repeat of the situation in 2014 and will be able to give an adequate response to the Russian Federation, Danilov assured.

 

[what]

Sometimes I think that we're not living in the same reality with regard to Turkey defending Ukraine vs. Russia.

Power aside, we shot down a Russian aircraft and our government bend backwards to mend ties incl. buying a very expensive air defence system and jailing innocent soldiers.