- Messages
- 2,919
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
From where did you get such info?
Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War
- Thread starter Kartal1
- Start date
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
Ukraine update. Day 5. Part I
This is going to be a short one.
North.
Kiev is apparently not completely surrounded but things are tight enough that it makes civilian traffic in and out of the city too dangerous.
Russian forces from Chernihiv are pushing both south west (toward the south of Kiev) and south east toward Sribne. Just as the push south from Sumy reported yesterday, the aim, here, seems to be the eventual capture of Poltava.
Large explosion in Cherkasy, last night is confirmed to have been a strike on a large Ukrainian ammo dump.
South
Berdyansk has fallen. Mariupol still holds but is now definitely cut off and surrounded.
Summary.
Russian forces are not fighting as they have been trained:
On the ground, troops have not "uncoiled". There are no deployment of armoured thrusts or whole BTGs. No employment of artillery strikes in preparation or in support of advances. Only light forces are projected piecemeal forward (or into cities). Those light forces often get lost or outrun their own supply lines.
In the air, hundreds of fighter and strike planes, alongside hundreds of attack helicopter, remain parked on the ground. No SEAD, no CAP, no tactical bombing.
Elsewhere, Russian EW units are doing very little to impede civilian and military communications. Ukraine still has mobile phone networks and internet. The Ukrainian army C&C structure is still intact.
Whole skillsets, tactics and capabilities that the Russian army employed and displayed in Syria and in the Donbass are simply unused and ignored at present time.
This must be down to a political decision: Not to cause too much damage or to avoid collateral casualties. It is as if the Russian armed forces had been told to fight with one arm behind its back.
This war is full of contradiction: President Putin said he did not intend on occupying Ukraine but the Russian army is focussing on conquering Kiev, Kharkiv and Mariupol. He said he intended to "demilitarise" Ukraine, but the Russian army hasn't launched the onslaught needed to achieve this gain either.
In the meantime, through this "half-war" waged, Russian losses are higher than they should be. And if there was any delusion that the Russian army would win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian civil society beyond the Donbass, such notions must have been strongly dispelled by now.
In other news, the EU has decided to purchase and supply fighter planes to the Ukrainian army (probably ex-Soviet stock in the hands of Eastern European NATO member states).
Ukraine's prosecutor general has announced that all men of fighting age with military experience are to be released from prison and given the opportunity to fight for their country.
Belarus has held a "referendum" and has just renounced its non-nuclear status, thus enabling Russia to move nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory if needed.
The Belarusian army and air force seem to be mobilising for something.
Defensionem
Ukraine update. Day 5. part II
Russia has started using its frontal tactical aviation over Kharkiv. Those Su-34s were seen flying over the Donbass earlier on today..
We should see more Su-25 in action as soon as the Russians secure airbases inside Ukraine, near the frontline.
Russian MLRS were also in action against Kharkiv and Mariupol, today.
Russian troops are now 18km from Kiev city centre. It seems the Russians are also branching west of the capital. Wagner seems to now be involved in the fight around Kiev.
Belarusian units have been assembling near Brest. There is a feeling they might be getting ready to cross the border into Ukraine, too. If they do so, they will be ideally positioned to secure Ukraine's western border (with Poland) and therefore ideally placed to disrupt the flow of European weapons into the country.
A Belarusian move there could also threaten Lviv. In any case, such an intrusion would open a new front in Ukraine and potentially tie up Ukrainian units that could have been otherwise used to bolster the capital's own defence.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Belarus hasn't committed its troops to the fight just yet and there are no guarantees they'll do so.
Map updates were slow at first, today and showing little progress. It seems the Russians were reorganising and receiving reinforcements
Map updates this evening are showing a frenzy of activities and some of them might be showing Russian intentions rather than actual Russian progress. In any case, it seems the attackers have made progress in the east, working toward gaining a solid foothold along the Ukrainian border, eliminating bulges and unifying the fronts.
In the north, they still work toward progressing toward Poltava.
Ukrainian resistance is still working efficiently. Their TB-2 have made an impact, today, attacking several convoys and engaging a Russian fuel train behind Russian lines. This demonstrates again how the Russians haven't deployed as they would/should, and both strategic and tactical air defences and air cover are still lacking despite evidence that those mentioned units are available for deployment.
American intel estimate that Russia has now introduced 75% of the BTGs earmarked for Ukrainian operations into Ukraine proper. It'll take time for those units to deploy properly.
Russia has fired an estimated 350-380 ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
Russian readout from the 90 minutes phone call between Macron and Putin today:
"The Russian President has stressed that a settlement is possible only if Russia's legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account, including the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the démilitarisation and denazification of the Ukrainian state and ensuring its neutral status".
Talks between Kiev and Moscow were finally held in Belarus in a villa belonging to Belarus president Lukashenko. Ukraine was represented by his defence minister while Russia was represented by a presidential advisor.
We supply you with several maps, today. As said above, keep in mind some are showing some optimistic progress, some are lacking details and some are showing Russian intentions rather than Russian progress.
We have also introduced a map showing roads the Russian armed forces actually control for certain. Controlling two parallel roads doesn't mean the space between those roads is also under control...
Defensionem
This is going to be a short one.
North.
Kiev is apparently not completely surrounded but things are tight enough that it makes civilian traffic in and out of the city too dangerous.
Russian forces from Chernihiv are pushing both south west (toward the south of Kiev) and south east toward Sribne. Just as the push south from Sumy reported yesterday, the aim, here, seems to be the eventual capture of Poltava.
Large explosion in Cherkasy, last night is confirmed to have been a strike on a large Ukrainian ammo dump.
South
Berdyansk has fallen. Mariupol still holds but is now definitely cut off and surrounded.
Summary.
Russian forces are not fighting as they have been trained:
On the ground, troops have not "uncoiled". There are no deployment of armoured thrusts or whole BTGs. No employment of artillery strikes in preparation or in support of advances. Only light forces are projected piecemeal forward (or into cities). Those light forces often get lost or outrun their own supply lines.
In the air, hundreds of fighter and strike planes, alongside hundreds of attack helicopter, remain parked on the ground. No SEAD, no CAP, no tactical bombing.
Elsewhere, Russian EW units are doing very little to impede civilian and military communications. Ukraine still has mobile phone networks and internet. The Ukrainian army C&C structure is still intact.
Whole skillsets, tactics and capabilities that the Russian army employed and displayed in Syria and in the Donbass are simply unused and ignored at present time.
This must be down to a political decision: Not to cause too much damage or to avoid collateral casualties. It is as if the Russian armed forces had been told to fight with one arm behind its back.
This war is full of contradiction: President Putin said he did not intend on occupying Ukraine but the Russian army is focussing on conquering Kiev, Kharkiv and Mariupol. He said he intended to "demilitarise" Ukraine, but the Russian army hasn't launched the onslaught needed to achieve this gain either.
In the meantime, through this "half-war" waged, Russian losses are higher than they should be. And if there was any delusion that the Russian army would win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian civil society beyond the Donbass, such notions must have been strongly dispelled by now.
In other news, the EU has decided to purchase and supply fighter planes to the Ukrainian army (probably ex-Soviet stock in the hands of Eastern European NATO member states).
Ukraine's prosecutor general has announced that all men of fighting age with military experience are to be released from prison and given the opportunity to fight for their country.
Belarus has held a "referendum" and has just renounced its non-nuclear status, thus enabling Russia to move nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory if needed.
The Belarusian army and air force seem to be mobilising for something.
Defensionem
Ukraine update. Day 5. part II
Russia has started using its frontal tactical aviation over Kharkiv. Those Su-34s were seen flying over the Donbass earlier on today..
We should see more Su-25 in action as soon as the Russians secure airbases inside Ukraine, near the frontline.
Russian MLRS were also in action against Kharkiv and Mariupol, today.
Russian troops are now 18km from Kiev city centre. It seems the Russians are also branching west of the capital. Wagner seems to now be involved in the fight around Kiev.
Belarusian units have been assembling near Brest. There is a feeling they might be getting ready to cross the border into Ukraine, too. If they do so, they will be ideally positioned to secure Ukraine's western border (with Poland) and therefore ideally placed to disrupt the flow of European weapons into the country.
A Belarusian move there could also threaten Lviv. In any case, such an intrusion would open a new front in Ukraine and potentially tie up Ukrainian units that could have been otherwise used to bolster the capital's own defence.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Belarus hasn't committed its troops to the fight just yet and there are no guarantees they'll do so.
Map updates were slow at first, today and showing little progress. It seems the Russians were reorganising and receiving reinforcements
Map updates this evening are showing a frenzy of activities and some of them might be showing Russian intentions rather than actual Russian progress. In any case, it seems the attackers have made progress in the east, working toward gaining a solid foothold along the Ukrainian border, eliminating bulges and unifying the fronts.
In the north, they still work toward progressing toward Poltava.
Ukrainian resistance is still working efficiently. Their TB-2 have made an impact, today, attacking several convoys and engaging a Russian fuel train behind Russian lines. This demonstrates again how the Russians haven't deployed as they would/should, and both strategic and tactical air defences and air cover are still lacking despite evidence that those mentioned units are available for deployment.
American intel estimate that Russia has now introduced 75% of the BTGs earmarked for Ukrainian operations into Ukraine proper. It'll take time for those units to deploy properly.
Russia has fired an estimated 350-380 ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
Russian readout from the 90 minutes phone call between Macron and Putin today:
"The Russian President has stressed that a settlement is possible only if Russia's legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account, including the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the démilitarisation and denazification of the Ukrainian state and ensuring its neutral status".
Talks between Kiev and Moscow were finally held in Belarus in a villa belonging to Belarus president Lukashenko. Ukraine was represented by his defence minister while Russia was represented by a presidential advisor.
We supply you with several maps, today. As said above, keep in mind some are showing some optimistic progress, some are lacking details and some are showing Russian intentions rather than Russian progress.
We have also introduced a map showing roads the Russian armed forces actually control for certain. Controlling two parallel roads doesn't mean the space between those roads is also under control...
Defensionem
- Messages
- 2,165
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 2,919
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
Haaa..... pitiful pricks
Didnt they say that they are prepared for any consequences? If so, why dont you man up and open the stock exchange
Didnt they say that they are prepared for any consequences? If so, why dont you man up and open the stock exchange
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 2,919
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
Can u share the complete details, if you are free
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 2,919
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 2,172
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
rusi.org
TL;DR no large stocks of Precision guided munition.
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
- Messages
- 9,765
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
Barzani
Committed member
- Messages
- 154
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
Hexciter
Experienced member
- Messages
- 2,575
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
They know how to fix and use them immediately. What they need.
- Messages
- 7,240
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
-
- Nation of origin
-
