Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Nilgiri]

Today is really a dark day for the Russian AF. Good riddance.

Time for more VDV to save the next day then...

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500176375944200202

the whole "government in exile and supporting guerrilla war" should be dropped its dumb and becoming annoying , now is the time to support Ukraine not make "plan" for a guerrilla

 

[OverTheHorizon]

Pretty sure it's an even bigger existential war for the ukrainians.
I was convinced at the outset that this would basically be a rush to Kiev and the installation of a "friendly government" but the apparent abysmal morale of the russian troops combined with their complete and total inability to bring resources to bear on a point in a coordinated fashion makes me seriously doubt if they will achieve their objectives, and if they do, how the hell are they going to hold on to the country? They would have to leave a sizeable occupying force to protect the new pro-russian government, and they would face resistance on all planes for a long time.

Unless India can milk the Russians too in which case it becomes an India-China bidding war. I have a feeling Russia will be far more willing to trade with India than with China. For instance, india can commission another dozen VVER 1000 nuke reactors from Russia at half the current cost (6 VVER 1000s built/under op in India) and that will be a huge win. Russia’s Far East has tremendous energy supplies and india can import that energy competing with China. That should ensure some competition. India can hire Russian scientists on the cheap for its space and defense projects (again on the cheap). India can tow a bunch of large Russian naval platforms to India on the cheap or even for free and refurbish them there with advanced western electronics. I say india has a better advantage in exploiting Russian situation than China has.

 

[Nilgiri]

The question is did Putin have the liberty of having this time? In an ideal world yes wait until you are in a dominant position and then unleash a blitzkrieg like the Nazis did. But does Russia have this option at all? At the end of the day Russia’s population is only 140 million and declining. Their economic situation is probably maxed out now with the largest forex reserves and GDP they could possibly have. So, in my books, waiting to be more dominant is not an option available for the Russians. This is it - now or never. Russia’s defense budget is just $45 billion - half of India’s and 15% of China’s. Russia no longer can aspire to be in a dominant position even if it wants to.

Its about knowing your place in the world well (past, current, future)...and do the most constructive thing possible with that.

Russia sits on a massive nuclear arsenal....its final security is always guaranteed for forseeable future from external threat

Makes no sense to impulsively risk this stuff, that too well before the CnC ladder gets lot more transparent and robust (so you handle feedback within it well)

....even coming from the authoritarian mindset of Putin I can't figure it out conventionally.

Unconventionally needs a look into the longer Russian psyche (and how its always manifested since the Mongols brutalised Kievan Rus), but thats longer subject to get into.

That too Ukraine, a literal blood brother nation (when it comes down to the ground of it past the politics)...

Well genie out of bottle, lets see how it goes down.

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500246730104791040

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500248010332282882

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500250232143204354

 

[OverTheHorizon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500176375944200202

the whole "government in exile and supporting guerrilla war" should be dropped its dumb and becoming annoying , now is the time to support Ukraine not make "plan" for a guerrilla

Another Afghanistan and more mercenaries unleashing terrorism around the world?

 

[Vergennes]

lmao

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500104042181234696

 

[OverTheHorizon]

Its about knowing your place in the world well (past, current, future)...and do the most constructive thing possible with that.

Russia sits on a massive nuclear arsenal....its final security is always guaranteed for forseeable future from external threat

Makes no sense to impulsively risk this stuff, that too well before the CnC ladder gets lot more transparent and robust (so you handle feedback within it well)

....even coming from the authoritarian mindset of Putin I can't figure it out conventionally.

Unconventionally needs a look into the longer Russian psyche (and how its always manifested since the Mongols brutalised Kievan Rus), but thats longer subject to get into.

That too Ukraine, a literal blood brother nation (when it comes down to the ground of it past the politics)...

Well genie out of bottle, lets see how it goes down.

Well not if you think that Russians do not want western style democracy but a Russian style whatever system it is in Ukraine. I mean we heard propaganda like “Russian soldiers were told it is a training exercise and then they suudenly realized they were lied to and now want to fight a war in Ukraine”. I mean how believable is this? Russian soldiers are fighting for something they believe in clearly. It is not just Putin. What is it is what no one is sure of.

 

[Nilgiri]

There are few Russian Neo-Nazi groups fighting in the ranks off the Donbass seperatists also in Wagner they don't even hide it is saw some Instagram posts of Wagner mercs doing the Nazi salute in Libya. Slavs were categorized "subhuman" by the Nazis btw., tragicomedy.

View attachment 40582

This world has some level of flat-earthers too and some really far out conspiracy theories and cults.

There really is no limit to human stupidity, just like there is no limit to its potential too.

Multiply big country population by some % factor and there you go....thats your raw putty of lost causes in a petri dish of dumb #$%$#.

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347483360731136

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347496384053248

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347501765246979

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347509600210944

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347514750812162

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347517179322369

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347521935716353

pretty good analysis of the situation before the war by a senior Russian military leaders

 

[Nilgiri]

Well not if you think that Russians do not want western style democracy but a Russian style whatever system it is in Ukraine. I mean we heard propaganda like “Russian soldiers were told it is a training exercise and then they suudenly realized they were lied to and now want to fight a war in Ukraine”. I mean how believable is this? Russian soldiers are fighting for something they believe in clearly. It is not just Putin. What is it is what no one is sure of.

Why don't we wait for the dust to settle and see for ourselves in who actually believes in something clearly.

Best case situation for Putin is staring at a super expensive, painful insurgency of real scale (past all the sanctions heaped on his core and the vassalage to PRC thats going to crush on top).

Lets not go into details of likely scenario and worst case scenarios.

Ukraine is no Belarus.

I know many Ukrainians here closely in Canada.... they are already planning just what manner of long term support they are going to do.

It will be a scale far different to what USSR experienced in AFG that they ran from and then crumbled after.

If Putin seriously thought this could be a X multiple situation of Belarus....at low cost and some expedience and easy resolution....so that Russian economy and society can handle it (with all those grey X factors involved that he has gone all in risking)....he really is pretty dumb in the end....both in the analysis computation and his decision to risk it.

Didn't think things through enough.....way too impulsive....and the ungainliness of that will wrought great suffering upon Russians and Ukrainians alike.

I suppose you need a population bulk well past the 500 million and 1 billion to have enough internal stuff to keep focus constrained more intrinsically for authoritarians/totalitarians in the end.

Otherwise its always some level of nutso flexing well beyond actual core strength outside.

 

[OverTheHorizon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347483360731136

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347496384053248

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347501765246979

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347509600210944

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499347514750812162

if Putin thought this was going to be a cake walk, he would be the dumbest leader ever. And would deserve everything that happens to him and his cronies including a public execution at the Red Square. I don’t think Putin is a tinpot dictator. Lol.

 

[OverTheHorizon]

Why don't we wait for the dust to settle and see for ourselves in who actually believes in something clearly.

Best case situation for Putin is staring at a super expensive, painful insurgency of real scale (past all the sanctions heaped on his core and the vassalage to PRC thats going to crush on top).

Lets not go into details of likely scenario and worst case scenarios.

Ukraine is no Belarus.

I know many Ukrainians here closely in Canada.... they are already planning just what manner of long term support they are going to do.

It will be a scale far different to what USSR experienced in AFG that they ran from and then crumbled after.

If Putin seriously thought this could be a X multiple situation of Belarus....at low cost and some expedience and easy resolution....so that Russian economy and society can handle it (with all those grey X factors involved that he has gone all in risking)....he really is pretty dumb in the end....both in the analysis computation and his decision to risk it.

Didn't think things through enough.....way too impulsive....and the ungainliness of that will wrought great suffering upon Russians and Ukrainians alike.

I suppose you need a population bulk well past the 500 million and 1 billion to have enough internal stuff to keep focus constrained more intrinsically for authoritarians/totalitarians in the end.

Otherwise its always some level of nutso flexing well beyond actual core strength outside.

I seriously think Putin is not underestimating the situation. He knows meddling in Ukraine (44 million population with a decent armed forces and western weapons and economic support) is very dangerous for Russia and a diminished Russia could become China’s lackey forever which is far more debilitating for Russian pride than any defeat at the hands of Ukrainians. If Putin is taking Russia to this situation, I think the Russians will hang him by his balls - oligarchs or not. We are all assuming that Putin is a tinpot dictator like that Belarusian guy. I don’t think that’s the case. He maybe a heavy handed and even cruel dictator but certainly not a tinpot. It is ridiculous to even think that way.

 

[Nilgiri]

I seriously think Putin is not underestimating the situation. He knows meddling in Ukraine (44 million population with a decent armed forces and western weapons and economic support) is very dangerous for Russia and a diminished Russia could become China’s lackey forever which is far more debilitating for Russian pride than any defeat at the hands of Ukrainians. If Putin is taking Russia to this situation, I think the Russians will hang him by his balls - oligarchs or not. We are all assuming that Putin is a tinpot dictator like that Belarusian guy. I don’t think that’s the case. He maybe a heavy handed and even cruel dictator but certainly not a tinpot. It is ridiculous to even think that way.

You are coming at this from a non relevant time frame (since something has just started)....

The CIA didnt see much chance of any kind of fissure in USSR even after the AFG experience conclusion too (much less when it started in 1979)....because again enough people didn't factor in that you need some years to play things out.

A simple look at the % of USSR economy and power as world total in 1990...

compared to Russia today...

and factoring USSR was facing far far fewer sanctions (past what it self-imposed from its own economic model) compared to whats been done now....

....Will tell you the raw biggest scope on offer for same core set of people in the tsar -boyar -bourgousie-proletariat-peasant ecosystem.

and will tell you what Putin should have looked at and kept in mind past his impulsiveness.

Its stuff the Chinese keep very close track of.

Not so the Russians for some reason....and the why regarding that is the underlying psyche.

 

[HTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500237451608080394

 

[OverTheHorizon]

You are coming at this from a non relevant time frame (since something has just started)....

The CIA didnt see much chance of any kind of fissure in USSR even after the AFG experience conclusion too (much less when it started in 1979)....because again enough people didn't factor in that you need some years to play things out.

A simple look at the % of USSR economy and power as world total in 1990...

compared to Russia today...

and factoring USSR was facing far far fewer sanctions (past what it self-imposed from its own economic model) compared to whats been done now....

....Will tell you the raw biggest scope on offer for same core set of people in the tsar -boyar -bourgousie-proletariat-peasant ecosystem.

and will tell you what Putin should have looked at and kept in mind past his impulsiveness.

Its stuff the Chinese keep very close track of.

Not so the Russians for some reason....and the why regarding that is the underlying psyche.

True that timelines matter. But why do you expect Russia to degrade beyond a certain point like the USSR did? Russia is monolithic, bound by Russian orthodox Christianity and has self sufficient resources. True it won’t be as powerful as the USSR, but it is not as powerful as the USSR even today - that is my point. This war will not make them more powerful- only less, so less that there is a 100% chance a diminished Russia becomes a Chinese colony for the foreseeable future. No need to even wait for how everything plays out. Like Canada plays the poodle to the US, Russia would have to do so to China. Given this near certain future scenario, are we contending that Putin and his cabinet cronies are not smart enough to have thought about this debilitating scenario for them? I highly doubt it. There is no future (and maybe only death) for Putin and his cronies if this war goes south for them. It is a big big risk for Putin - that much is certain. We don’t need a future timeline to establish this undeniable risk Putin is facing. If anything bringing USSR in as a precedent is what muddles the timeline. Russia is a different entity and its future is now.

 

[Bogeyman]

According to The Wall Street Journal, Poland will send its MiG-29 and Su-25 aircraft to Ukraine. In return, it will receive an F-16 from the USA.

U.S., Poland Look at Providing Soviet-Era Aircraft to Ukraine

The U.S. is exploring a deal in which Poland would send Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American F-16 jet fighters, U.S. officials said. Poland’s prime minister’s office dismissed reports of a potential arrangement.

www.wsj.com

 

[Nilgiri]

But why do you expect Russia to degrade beyond a certain point

Don't know what you even mean by this....

You handle your "degradation" wisely...not rashly that gets you worse off quicker and possibly killed altogether....and brother neighbour killed as well...and however much else in the larger lose-lose.

Was China supposed to handle its degradation under Mao by doubling down and doing more Mao stuff after he's gone?

The UK supposed to have some big ole war with the up and comer US at some point...."because degradation".... till funny mustache man put that whole thing on the roulette wheel entirely randomly?

Or is it learn, adjust and try something new and rational on your time and space internally?

And how do you even gauge a "certain point" without having the political structure to measure it accurately?

Some Tsar complex guy and his little den of boyars broadcast it to you?...and thats the be all end all on that?


=====================

How about everyone FAR FAR FAR worse off than the Russians in the world (in any metric at any level you deem for economy, society, security, stability).

Wealth, development, strategic scale, power, no of nuclear weapons per 10 million people.....you name it

All the worse off countries ("leadership") on those suddenly ought to go....we should have been fighting and invading a little bro (we share so much in the end) next to us like years agoooo....because we're totally degraded and we just have to get ahead of that now....tough luck on the masses of people that want to get on with their lives with the problems we already heaped on them thus far.....war baby!

 

[Glass🚬]

According to The Wall Street Journal, Poland will send its MiG-29 and Su-25 aircraft to Ukraine. In return, it will receive an F-16 from the USA.

U.S., Poland Look at Providing Soviet-Era Aircraft to Ukraine

The U.S. is exploring a deal in which Poland would send Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American F-16 jet fighters, U.S. officials said. Poland’s prime minister’s office dismissed reports of a potential arrangement.

www.wsj.com

depending on the falcons this would be a good exchange tbh