Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Bürküt

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Yes, I remember that episode too, and while it may sound cynical, it is the truth that many people in the West are afraid to say.

The fact that it happened to a “civilized” country and to people who “drove cars just like ours” makes this war much more scarier for a large part of the world.

Until now, people in sufficiently developed countries had a feeling of security because such things didn’t happen to people like them. When seeing the war in Ukraine with rockets hitting shopping malls, people realize that even places like the ones where they live can turn into conflict zones.

It’s not about Ukrainians being white Europeans. It is about the culture and lifestyle. We would be equally outraged if we saw rockets hitting shopping malls in Taiwan or South Korea, just like we were outraged when the terrorists bombed a shopping mall in Nairobi a few years ago.

It’s harder to relate to the war in Yemen than it is with the situation in Ukraine, but I assure you that if there would be a war in the UAE and we would see rockets hitting Dubai, we would be equally outraged.

It’s not about race and geography, it is about culture and level of development. The war in Ukraine hits a sensible cord with many people because it affect their own sense of security.



The order is not created entirely by the West. Otherwise, you wouldn’t have had China and Russia in the UN Security Council. A lot of the poverty and the bad situation in many places is because of the Soviet Union and its malign influence it had for 50 years, with its failed Communist ideology and defence of dictatorships.

Hopefully Russia’s influence will be greatly diminished after this war and there will be less support for dictators around the world.



It’s not that undemocratic countries deserve destruction. But they are very unpredictable and dangerous because they are ruled by a single man, who is usually also a psychopath. Dictatorships tend to be militaristic and aggressive, and are more prone to ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses. This is why they frequently end up with popular uprisings and civil wars. Remeber that the first Iraq war was because of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait and the Lybian conflict started as an uprising and civil war against Gaddafi’s rule. The Syrian conflict is similar to that in Lybia, an uprising that was dealt with brutality by a ruthless dictator.

So there is a big difference between what the collective West think is “precious” and what Russia/China do. The West defends democratic countries where people are treated with respect and have basic rights, while Russia/China defend brutal dictatorships known for abusing their people, enslaving populations and imprisoning opponents. There is no equivalence, really.



Yes, proximity to a war certainly matters. In Indonesia you don’t feel threatened by what happens in Ukraine, but if you would look at the whole picture, you would realize that things are connected and what happens in Ukraine could have ramifications in the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe we are far away from China, but we are concerned by what China might do in Taiwan and we are also bothered by China’s aggressive policies in regards to islands belonging to the Philppines and the militarization of the South China Sea. We care about dangerous geopolitical moves even when they happen thousands of kilometes away.
I wish the western civilization to which you belong was as sincere as you.If it was UAE Egypt Saudi Arabia would be treated like Syria Iraq and Libya.That wouldn't be "nice" to think about.But at least we could say the "WEST" is fair :).
 

contricusc

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I wish the western civilization to which you belong was as sincere as you.If it was UAE Egypt Saudi Arabia would be treated like Syria Iraq and Libya.That wouldn't be "nice" to think about.But at least we could say the "WEST" is fair :).

I don’t think UAE is in the same category as Egypt or Saudi Arabia, which yes, they would be treated just like Syria, Iraq and Libya.

UAE is a lot more “Westernized”, and lots of Europeans live or have properties in the UAE, so there is a lot more interest in keeping it safe. If the UAE continues to attract foreign investment and to increase its role in the global economy with more corporate offices and international businesses, it will become an even more important country with all the security benefits derriving from that.
 

Afif

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Many things seem inevitable only to be proved otherwise. I expect a huge economic crisis this decade that will have a huge effect on developing countries. All it takes for the developing countries to collapse is for the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for a few years, and the thing is, the Americans know this too.
Duh, only if it were that easy like you make it sound.
If the US decides it is time to slam the brakes on the developing world in order to defend its hegemony, there is very little others can do to avoid the coconsequences.
You are overestimating US ability.

I think @Nilgiri would be able to tell us more about that. ( in an appropriate thread or here )
 

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I keep thinking maybe we should move the deeper + longer analysis to the geopolitics thread....and keep this one as more news/live feed related.....but the conversation does come back to the UKR-RUS and Russia a lot (after it meanders away to broader geopolitics or other countries/conflicts)

So I'll keep it here for now so there is better preserving of the flow and context, unless enough of you guys want it all moved fully elsewhere.

i.e I feel the longer/deeper convo will keep happening in this thread regardless from time to time (esp as this war keeps dragging on) as its a bedrock to the war itself anyway.
 

Nilgiri

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Duh, only if it were that easy like you make it sound.

You are overestimating US ability.

I think @Nilgiri would be able to tell us more about that. ( in an appropriate thread or here )

Well it would impose a huge inflationary cost on the US to cut off supply chains from Asia (especially China).

One can look at the trade deficit already. These are not small amounts of capital that can be reshored or rebuilt so quickly, especially given price levels of US labour on top of that.

Then its matter of rest of world working out ways to trade essentials (like food and energy) in a separate global system for them....and how that stacks up vis a vis the costs from western pressure.

It really depends on the details (how it works with the merchant marine ownership and international shipping insurance companies that say China can create to fill the void), but it wont be easy all-in. The US knows fully well its a two way street in the end.

It certainly won't be done w.r.t Ukraine war anyway, the situation has more or less stabilised geopolitically w.r.t what's happening and what the West sees as the solution it can do and persevere on its own....as long as no one steps in to really aid Russia

i.e The US and Europe have by and large factored they can do enough by themselves to deal with Russia.

If massive/relevant Chinese military assistance floods into Russia (which I find unlikely, but it could happen)....then we will see the first steps of what US hegemony steps are really taken then and what is overleveraged and what sticks. The other countries in developing world really dont matter that much, so the US wont focus there and will prioritise what it can to slow China down or strip parts of things away from it gradually as it can.

The US certainly would not want to make the entire (major) developing world one bloc against it by rash reductive policy on entirety (given these costs)....after their investment so far to play them separately in unique ways to hedge things.
 

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FqKVBPCWYAMDdhl.jpg


Masha, a 12 year old Russian girl, drew a picture in support of Ukraine. The regime’s authorities beat up Masha’s father, stole his savings, detained him and sent the girl to an orphanage.
 

Nilgiri

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Can roughly see who has to pitch in more relative to others...using just the identified (publicly acknowledged) dead

1677707566500.png
 

Nykyus

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I appreciate that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not an ordinary war, but an analogue of the Third World War.
The First World War arose when the newly created German state did not have time to divide the colonies. The only colonies were Namibia, Papua New Guinea. It officially arose when the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary was killed by a Serbian nationalist. After that, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia. Russia stood up for Serbia and began mobilization. Then Germany stood up for Austria-Hungary, and two allies from the Entente, Great Britain and France, stood up for Russia. As a result of the First World War, Austria-Hungary completely disappeared from the world map. There were 2 revolutions in Russia, the Civil War. Germany was defeated.
As a result of the First World War, the League of Nations, the predecessor of the UN, was created.
Then preparations for the Second World War began, because revanchist sentiments prevailed in Germany. Great Britain and France pursued a policy of appeasing the aggressor. They did not object to the annexation of the Rhine demilitarized zone, the annexation of the German-populated Sudetenland, then the whole of Czechoslovakia, the Anschluss - the annexation of Austria. According to Russia, Poland throughout the 1930s pursued an anti-communist-anti-Russian policy and also participated in the division of Czechoslovakia. It was the Munich Agreement. Then Germany invaded and annexed Poland, in response to this, France and Great Britain declared war on Germany, but stood only near the borders, therefore they called the Strange War. France and Britain hoped that Germany would direct its efforts to invade the Soviet Union. But Germany eliminated the threat to its rear by cracking down on France. Then it was supposed to invade the Soviet Union in May 1941, due to the uprising in Yugoslavia (Serbia), then the landing of the British in Greece was forced to postpone the deadline until June 22, 1941, having lost good weather conditions for the invasion.
In the end, the Axis lost to the Western countries and the USSR. The USSR won victories in the 1942 battles of Stalingrad and Kursk. The victories were won thanks to the lend-lease of the USA to the Soviet Union, because their factories were destroyed, the Western group of troops were defeated. Hitler miscalculated when he declared that the Soviet Union would never rebuild its defeated armies. Even before the end of the war, Roosevelt came up with a plan to create the UN, so that in the future there would be no chaos of wars and be regulated in this organization.
After the death of Roosevelt, the confrontation between the West and the USSR began even before the end of World War II, under President Truman. For about 50 years, the United States and the Soviet Union opposed in local wars and revolutions. The concept of the First World - Western countries, the Second World - socialist countries - the countries of the Warsaw Pact, before Stalin's death - China, then Cuba. The third world is the rest of the countries with weak economies.
The reasons for the start of the Third World War are revanchist sentiments in Russia, everything is exactly like in Germany in the 1930s due to the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War. The bloc of Western countries is opposed to the bloc of rebellious countries: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran. In recent years, China has crushed Pakistan economically, built a port there and is striving to do so in the territory of Central Asia of the former Soviet Union. Pakistan also went for it because of the territorial dispute with India.

Russia invaded Syria for several reasons. Russia reacted extremely negatively to the Arab Spring, the overthrow of power in Libya, Egypt, and the attempted overthrow in Syria. These countries were previously allies of the USSR in the confrontation with the West: wars with Israel. There were multi-million dollar Chinese investments in Libya, so a hit on Libya was also a hit on China. Not only in Libya: in Sudan there was also a civil war between north and south, created at the instigation of the West to hit Chinese money investments.
The war was also influenced by the Christian minority in Syria. The Russian Patriarch blessed them for this. In Syria, there is the Patriarchate of Antioch, which was one of the five. They were shown that the Mujahideen, like ISIS, will cut the heads of the religious minorities there, ethnic cleansing. According to Russian forces, the root cause of the West to overthrow Assad was his refusal to extend a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe.
 

contricusc

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Well it would impose a huge inflationary cost on the US to cut off supply chains from Asia (especially China).

One can look at the trade deficit already. These are not small amounts of capital that can be reshored or rebuilt so quickly, especially given price levels of US labour on top of that.

Yes, it would. That’s why the US would prefer to remain in acceptable relations with China, despite the rivalry. But for this, China needs to behave and not help Russia.

The cost of decoupling would be high for the US, but even higher for China.

If massive/relevant Chinese military assistance floods into Russia (which I find unlikely, but it could happen)....then we will see the first steps of what US hegemony steps are really taken then and what is overleveraged and what sticks. The other countries in developing world really dont matter that much, so the US wont focus there and will prioritise what it can to slow China down or strip parts of things away from it gradually as it can.

The US certainly would not want to make the entire (major) developing world one bloc against it by rash reductive policy on entirety (given these costs)....after their investment so far to play them separately in unique ways to hedge things.

If China starts to help Russia with military assistance, things can escalate pretty quick and we are off the charts. I hope the Chinese leaders have enough common sense not to do it.
 
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Exclusive: US seeks allies' backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war

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By Trevor Hunnicutt and Michael Martina


WASHINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) - The United States is sounding out close allies about the possibility of imposing new sanctions on China if Beijing provides military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine, according to four U.S. officials and other sources.

The consultations, which are still at a preliminary stage, are intended to drum up support from a range of countries, especially those in the wealthy Group of 7 (G7), to coordinate support for any possible restrictions.

It was not clear what specific sanctions Washington will propose. The conversations have not been previously disclosed.

The U.S. Treasury Department, a lead agency on the imposition of sanctions, declined to comment.

Washington and its allies have said in recent weeks that China was considering providing weapons to Russia, which Beijing denies. Aides to U.S. President Joe Biden have not publicly provided evidence.

They have also warned China directly against doing so, including in meetings between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as during a Feb. 18 in-person meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of a global security conference in Munich.

The Biden administration's initial steps to counter Chinese support for Russia have included informal outreach at the staff and diplomatic levels, including the Treasury Department, sources familiar with the matter said.

They said officials were laying the groundwork for potential action against Beijing with the core group of countries that were most supportive of sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine a year ago.

Asked about the consultations, a White House National Security Council spokesperson said Russia's war made it difficult for China with Europe and others.

"It's a distraction for China and a potential blow to their international relationships they do not need nor should they want," the spokesperson said.

INTELLIGENCE

One official from a country consulted by Washington said that they had only seen scant intelligence backing up the claims about China considering possible military assistance to Russia. A U.S. official, however, said they were providing detailed accounts of the intelligence to allies.

China's role in the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to be among the topics when Biden meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House on Friday. Before that in New Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, the war will be discussed by foreign ministers from dozens of countries, including Russia, China and the United States.

Last week China issued a 12-point paper calling for a comprehensive ceasefire that was met with scepticism in the West.

The initial outreach by Washington on sanctions has not yet led to broad agreement on any specific measures, the sources said.

One source said the administration wanted to first raise the idea of coordinated sanctions and "take pulses" in the event that any shipments are detected to Russia from China, which declared a "no limits" partnership shortly before the invasion on Feb. 24 last year.

"On the G7 front, I think there is real awareness," a second source said, but added that detailed measures focused on China were not yet in place.

COULD CHINA TILT CONFLICT?

The Ukraine conflict has settled into grinding trench warfare. With Russia running low on munitions, Ukraine and its supporters fear that supplies from China could tilt the conflict to Russia's advantage.

As part of a related diplomatic push, Washington won language in a Feb. 24 G7 statement to mark the war's first anniversary that called on "third-countries" to "cease providing material support to Russia's war, or face severe costs."

Though the statement did not mention China by name, the U.S. imposed new penalties on people and companies accused of helping Russia evade sanctions. The measures included export curbs on companies in China and elsewhere that will block them from buying items, such as semiconductors.

"We've tried to signal very clearly, both in private in Munich, and then publicly, our concerns," Daniel Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, told Congress this week. "We've talked about the implications and the consequences if they were to do so. And we also know that many of our like-minded partners share those concerns."

Among the challenges the United States faces in putting sanctions on China, the world's second-biggest economy, is its thorough integration in the major economies of Europe and Asia, complicating the talks. U.S. allies from Germany to South Korea are reticent to alienate China.

Anthony Ruggiero, a sanctions expert under former President Donald Trump, said the Biden administration does have scope for economically restricting private actors within China and that doing so could deter the government and banks from providing further support.

"Then the administration can send messages to China in public and in private, with the latter being more explicit, that the U.S. will escalate the sanctions to include targeting Chinese banks with the full range of available options," said Ruggiero, now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies group.

Washington should make China choose between access to the U.S. financial system or aiding Russia's war, Ruggiero said, citing the sanctions approach to Iran and North Korea.
 

Dmitry

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Something is happening in Lubechan and Sushan, Bryansk region, Russia

The Russian Volunteer Corps came to the Bryansk region to show compatriots that hope is that free Russian people with weapons in their hands can fight the regime
 

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