Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,797
Reactions
98 9,198
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
Please. All the sudden Europe is quilty of all the sins happening since te end of Ice Age and US is some sort of home of supervillans, hideously and secretly directing Russia to chaos?

I would personally love to live in such world, where Europe has a guts and means to protect Bangladesh from floodings and Türkyie from earthquakes; US is able to give a rise of imperias and then sunk them with ease. Unfortunately I do not have such a privilege, european leaders are bunch of pussies and US has often no clue where they stick their nose in and how these countries operate in the basic level. Not even elementary understanding if to listen their rhetoric about bringing democracy to Afghanistan. Remember, this was a country who loved US for helping them win USSR in 1980-s. What a glorious fuck-up, if I may use this word.

But hey, do not let me to distract you. You just need to find and eliminate the guy who is behind of all of this. After that, all your problems are gone forever, huh?

I was being sarcastic about the last of part of my previous comment but damn...... you took it to a whole new level.

Anyway, seriously speaking i am not blaming Europe for anything they didn't do nor i am demanding from Europe something that they are not legally obliged to provide.

I am simply stating that, everyone first and foremost looks after their own interests, Including Europe and this is very natural.

And Ukraine conflict is just like any other war that happened before it. For example Iraq and Libya was completely destroyed due to the illegal western invasion/ military intervention.

Nobody did anything serious about it and we just moved on with our lives.

As I clearly stated before, unnecessary war and loss of innocent life is always regrettable. However, real world geopolitics does not care that much about ethics. So, now this is happening in Euopre don't expect any special treatment.
All those fancy games of geopolitics are played mostly in heads of conspiracy theorists who like to see hidden agenda behind everything. Indeed, if try hard enough, it is possible to link everything to everything. Have been there, trying to solve the ultimate question about the world and everything, did not manage much of it and done with it for a good. Pareto rule applies most of cases- the simplest solution to the problem is usually right. Peope, including mysterious superminds from Europe and US, are not able to controle 10% of it (this is really optimistic prognosis) and only sometimes if ever get it right. Blame God or Faith or Satan or whatever mysterious creature and you are much closer to the truth than projecting god-like superpowers to simple people.

Well, it is not really about projecting godlike superpowers.

Nor I am trying to link everything to everything or using pareto rule to assess the situation.

The turth is, great power competition is very real and consistently Goings on since the ages of the empires with its real world consequences. And it has nothing to do with conspiracy.

Just pointing out incompetence and stupidity of certain contemporary western leaders won't help with the argument that great power competition doesn't exist.

Because it is not the individuals that run the great power show. Rather it is the systems in those countries that keep the great power competition on track.

You know how it works in UN security council right? All of the 193 countires only 5 country hold the ultimate power. And this power imbalance reflect on most of the other worldly matters.

A clever man once famously said,
In security council, either you at the 'table' or on the 'manu'.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, it ended up on the Manu for one of the members.

Just like Vietnam and Iraq before it.
 
Last edited:

Xenon54

Experienced member
Switzerland Correspondent
Messages
2,181
Reactions
5 6,703
Nation of residence
Switzerland
Nation of origin
Turkey
While Europe and the US have left behind the colonial mindset of the pre WW2 world,
Dont wanna turn this into anti west troll fest but i strongly disagree with this, some western countries still have the colonial mindset and some such as France still exploit their former colonies to this day.

 

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,797
Reactions
98 9,198
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
That’s a primitive way of thinking that lacks any human values and decency.
You still don’t get it? It is not about lacking decency, it is just otherwise ( without core interest alignment ) expending oneself economically or militarily in defence of someone else would not be worth it for the shake of your own well being.
Supporting Ukraine at the UN matters for Ukraine. It shows their cause is supported by most of the world and it further weakens Russian soft power.
You are right. But it wouldn't be worth it for countries that may face the risk of potential energy/food crisis over their 'moral stance'
European countries have no national interst in Bangladesh or Myanmar, but they condemn genocide because it is the right thing to do, not because of national interest.

Yes, geopolitics trump human decency in many situations, but you just can’t compare the way Europe and the US act with what Russia is doing, or who Russia and China are supporting. While Europe and the US have left behind the colonial mindset of the pre WW2 world, China and Russia are stuck in the past and still see everything through the lens of might is right.
How you are getting the impression I am comparing western alliances to Russia?
I have no problem to acknowledge, overall in contemporary period, west is seems to be better when it comes to human rights and accountability.

However, not so long ago US, UK did supported some pretty brutal dictators and horrendous criminals just for the shake of great power competition.
 
Last edited:

contricusc

Contributor
Messages
543
Reactions
8 812
Nation of residence
Panama
Nation of origin
Romania
You still didn't get it? It is not about lacking decency, it is just otherwise ( without core interest alignment ) expending oneself economically or militarily in defence of someone else would not be worth it for the shake of your own well being.

You are right. But it wouldn't be worth it for many countries that may face energy/food crisis over their 'moral stance'
I understand your position and partially agree with you, but in this case, nobody asked Asian or African countries to “expend themselves economically or militarily“. I didn’t say far away Asian countries should donate weapons or money to Ukraine, but it costs nothing to condemn the Russian aggression at the UN.

It’s about taking a stand and show you are on the right side of history at no cost.

As for the energy/food crisis, that will happen regardless of a country’s position at the UN. No amount of ”neutrality“ on this issue will shield you from the energy/food crisis.

The best way to avoid the energy/food crisis is to support a quicker end to the conflict, and this can happen only if Ukraine receives enough support to liberate all its teritory, including Crimea.

The war will end only when Ukraine liberates its entire country. This is a reality that many people still don’t understand, and this includes Western leaders like Macron and Sholtz.
However, not so long ago US, UK did supported some pretty brutal dictators and horrendous criminals just for the shake of great power competition.
Yes, you are right about that. However, lots of things have changed since social media became so widespread, and public opinion puts a lot more pressure on politicians. When the war in Ukraine started, some Western politicians supported Putin (yes, I’m talking about Sholtz and Macron) but they have changed their stance because of public pressure.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,815
Reactions
120 19,922
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
The way half of the world (by population) acts regarding this war shows the lack of empathy in those countries. If you think your “national interest” trumples other people’s right to leave peacefully in their own country, you shouldn’t be surprised when nobody will care about your own problems.

The UN votes regarding the Ukraine war are an easy way for some countries to embarass themselves and show they have made little progress when it comes to understanding the modern world.

And it surely won’t help their national interests to be identified as unreliable countries that can’t even condemn a blatant aggression of a country with the intention to annex its territories.

Supporting Ukraine is not about being pro-West. It is about having basic human decency.

Till there is a movement (and results to show for it) by the Western elite and broader population to hold folks like Tony Blair to actual account regarding "people's right to live peacefully in their own country"..... rest of world wont care much for this sermon.

Why exactly is he, his administration and the subsequent ones of the same country (given they decidedly wont hold him to account and thus defer to might = right in the end).... treated way differently to Putin?

Is there consistency and good faith on this premise? If not what is the level of hypocrisy engaged in would you say?

Should not one practice what you preach first, then move on to your major ally regarding the same across the Ocean too....and set things in order regarding the principle yourself....before you start clamouring for others to share that principle as well?

But if national interests were made to triumph there over the liberalism-first concept.... then the West will have to reconcile with this being the way for others too.

We know exactly the long record of Europe putting its national interests (even on each other in most drastic ways) over the "right to live peacefully" in our own cases at or close to home, that we know the best about time and time again.

Later I will chat more with Afif in the war/geopolitics thread about it too....but my overall contention is that realism is predominant priority (Afif holds it higher than I do).... but that it should not be the absolute and there is scope to study liberalism as the 2nd feature (and large part of why I personally sympathise with the Ukrainians and Eastern Europe more broadly in general regarding the context with Russia).

But it is decidedly 2nd feature, as illustrated by Europe a very long time (and in the recent time too) itself past all its litany of idealist talk.

So your assertion it is "lack of empathy" regarding the others..... is going to have to get a reverse uno here.

Just like Germany switcheroo gets one within its specific rabbithole....pipelines and oligarchs with Putin even after Crimea (and what was clearly known by then).

Even on that matter using your assertion for just within the alliance, Europe wont hold Germany to account....since Germany wont hold itself to account. Schroeder is a real happy camper isn't he? And why not, Blair gets away with it too. The so called liberal democrat lefties of Europe everyone.

It will all be let to slide. You can watch and see for yourself. National interests always triumph among your own. The lip service tokenism is largely to keep the virtue signalling media wonks employed....blab and fluff is large part of the modern economy.
 

contricusc

Contributor
Messages
543
Reactions
8 812
Nation of residence
Panama
Nation of origin
Romania
Till there is a movement (and results to show for it) by the Western elite and broader population to hold folks like Tony Blair to actual account regarding "people's right to live peacefully in their own country"..... rest of world wont care much for this sermon.

Why exactly is he, his administration and the subsequent ones of the same country (given they decidedly wont hold him to account and thus defer to might = right in the end).... treated way differently to Putin?

Is there consistency and good faith on this premise? If not what is the level of hypocrisy engaged in would you say?

Should not one practice what you preach first, then move on to your major ally regarding the same across the Ocean too....and set things in order regarding the principle yourself....before you start clamouring for others to share that principle as well?

But if national interests were made to triumph there over the liberalism-first concept.... then the West will have to reconcile with this being the way for others too.

We know exactly the long record of Europe putting its national interests (even on each other in most drastic ways) over the "right to live peacefully" in our own cases at or close to home, that we know the best about time and time again.

Later I will chat more with Afif in the war/geopolitics thread about it too....but my overall contention is that realism is predominant priority (Afif holds it higher than I do).... but that it should not be the absolute and there is scope to study liberalism as the 2nd feature (and large part of why I personally sympathise with the Ukrainians and Eastern Europe more broadly in general regarding the context with Russia).

But it is decidedly 2nd feature, as illustrated by Europe a very long time (and in the recent time too) itself past all its litany of idealist talk.

So your assertion it is "lack of empathy" regarding the others..... is going to have to get a reverse uno here.

Just like Germany switcheroo gets one within its specific rabbithole....pipelines and oligarchs with Putin even after Crimea (and what was clearly known by then).

Even on that matter using your assertion for just within the alliance, Europe wont hold Germany to account....since Germany wont hold itself to account. Schroeder is a real happy camper isn't he? And why not, Blair gets away with it too. The so called liberal democrat lefties of Europe everyone.

It will all be let to slide. You can watch and see for yourself. National interests always triumph among your own. The lip service tokenism is largely to keep the virtue signalling media wonks employed....blab and fluff is large part of the modern economy.
Yes, you are right in what you say, there is a lot of hypocrisy in Europe when it comes to its politicians and how they are pardoned for the bad things they’ve done.

I agree with you that geopolitics is a dirty game, and a lot of bad things go unpunished, there is no denying that.

But what makes the current war in Ukraine stand out compared to other recent conflicts is the sheer stupidity and barbarism of the aggression.

You can compare previous conflicts where the US and its allies were involved (like Iraq, Afghanistan, Serbia, Lybia) to the initial invasion of Crimea and the breaking up of the Donbass separatist regions, or the invasion of Georgia. While they were military adventures on foreign soil, they were swift and effective. The aggressors met their objectives without difficulties, and this is why there was not big opposition from rival powers, because it would have been in vain. Nobody punished Blair for his sins, just like nobody punished Putin for Crimea’s annexation.

But what happened now is on a total differnet scale. Putin greatly miscalculated his power and Ukraine’s ability to fight, and this is why it ended up in a war of much higher intensity with much more destruction. The long war and the systematic bombardment of cities is very damaging to Russia’s image, and there is also a big difference compared to previous wars that makes this aggression much more illegitimate. Russia tries to annex territories, unlike the US or the UK. This is a war of conquest like the ones in the pre WW2 times. This is an aggression against a democratic county that had a legitimate government dully elected by the people. You can’t compare Zelensky’s Ukraine to Saddam’s Iraq, Gaddafi’s Lybia or Milosevic’s Serbia.

So there is the big diffrence of legitimacy. And there is also a big difference when it comes to the power balance. While the US had overwhelming power every time it attacked in recent times, Russia is unable to replicate that and will not win the war if Ukraine gets enough help. This means that supporting Russia, or being neutral in this war brings no realpolitik benefits, as you are siding with the losers who also happen to be barbarian aggressors.

I can understand why a country will not oppose the US when it does a bad thing, because it fears for its own interests, but why would you side with a loser that will become a global pariah against the biggest powers, considering the loser is also in the wrong morally?

There is no benefit in supporting Russia. Not morally and not even from a pragmatic perspective.
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Supporting Ukraine is not about being pro-West. It is about having basic human decency.
No its not, Ukraine war is just like any other war out there. What Russia did in Ukraine, while barbaric, is what every other militaries did in the past and still doing in the current wars. Maybe Ukraine is important for Europe, but for everyone else its just a regular war. So countries who refuses to condemn Russia, is not to be labelled indecent. Rather they're being pragmatic. And because this is not their wars, its not their business to be "in the right path of history". As if you westerners are the one who decide which one is right or wrong.

I don't see what's so special between War in Ukraine or wars in Africa for example. Just the sheer size and complexity differ.

anyway funny how you jump from decency to pragmatic when it comes to Ukraine. Both are in many times, antithesis of one another in practice.
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
You are right. But it wouldn't be worth it for countries that may face the risk of potential energy/food crisis over their 'moral stance'

How you are getting the impression I am comparing western alliances to Russia?
I have no problem to acknowledge, overall in contemporary period west is seems to be better when it comes to human rights and accountability.

However, not so long ago US, UK did supported some pretty brutal dictators and horrendous criminals just for the shake of great power competition.


When it comes to alliance and friendships there are 2 separate categories. Ideological alliance and pragmatic alliance. Countries the likes of Bangladesh, Indonesia and (maybe) Turkiye, no matter how hard they try will be in the pragmatic allies category. And we should treat them that way too.

In the 1960s the US propped up many dictatorship in the Latin America and SE Asia which all have one thing in common, anti Soviet.

Indonesia goes on to attack and occupy (the then left leaning) East Timor in 1975 under that tutelage...only to be villified by the same people that propped us to do the invasion earlier once the Cold war is over, while they portray themselves as the savior.

So yeah I could understand why on earth some countries would condemn and harm their "ok" relationship with the likes of Russia, just for some sort of getting cozy with the West. These westerners, they are not reliable.
 
Last edited:

contricusc

Contributor
Messages
543
Reactions
8 812
Nation of residence
Panama
Nation of origin
Romania
No its not, Ukraine war is just like any other war out there. What Russia did in Ukraine, while barbaric, is what every other militaries did in the past and still doing in the current wars. Maybe Ukraine is important for Europe, but for everyone else its just a regular war. So countries who refuses to condemn Russia, is not to be labelled indecent. Rather they're being pragmatic. And because this is not their wars, its not their business to be "in the right path of history". As if you westerners are the one who decide which one is right or wrong.

I don't see what's so special between War in Ukraine or wars in Africa for example. Just the sheer size and complexity differ.

anyway funny how you jump from decency to pragmatic when it comes to Ukraine. Both are in many times, antithesis of one another in practice.
Well, it is not just like “any other war”. It is very distinct from any war in the last 30 years (since the end of the Cold War) because:
1. It’s the first time a democratic country is being invaded
2. It is an invasion with the aim to annex teritory and redraw the map
3. It’s the most intense heavy war in recent times, with a rate of fire far above anything seen recently
4. It’s a war between a very powerful country with a huge nuclear arsenal, and a strong country supported by very powerful allies

This war challenges the entire post Cold War world order.

Until this invasion, all a country had to to in order to be safe from aggression was to be democratic and refrain from killing its people (including minorities). If you played by the rules, you were safe. But this war challanged the rules, and now every country feels threatened. If Ukraine can be invaded, and others don’t do anything, it means any other country can suffer the same fate. It means going back to the pre-WW2 order of dictatorships invading neighbors to annex territories.

The scale of the war and the geopolitical importance of the two factions means this war will have repercussions all over the world, regardless of a country’s neutrality.

Unlike recent wars in Africa, this war can cause severe repercussions to the global economy, energy/food crisis and can even lead to a new Cold War, if China decides to side with Russia.
 

Mailman

Active member
Messages
99
Reactions
183
Nation of residence
Estonia
Nation of origin
Estonia
When it comes to alliance and friendships there are 2 separate categories. Ideological alliance and pragmatic alliance. Countries the likes of Bangladesh, Indonesia and (maybe) Turkiye, no matter how hard they try will be in the pragmatic allies category. And we should treat them that way too.

In the 1960s the US propped up many dictatorship in the Latin America and SE Asia which all have one thing in common, anti Soviet.

Indonesia goes on to attack and occupy (the then leoft ft leaning) East Timor in 1975 under that tutelage...only to be villified by the same people that propped us to do the invasion earlier once the Cold war is over, while they portray themselves as the savior.

So yeah I could understand why on earth some countries would condemn and harm their "ok" relationship with the likes of Russia, just for some sort of getting cozy with the West. These westerners, they are not reliable.
Indeed, but one has to take the broader view hereby. Up to 90-s there was existencial struggle between two ideologies, between wannabe communists and pragmatic capitalists. This was backed up with real weapons of mass-destruction, which are used also in modern disputes. I saw this from inside the USSR and I can tell you, this was not a game. You see this vast arsenal of weapons, prepared for attacking West-Europe, rolling around in Ukrainian fields now. Quite literally, we did not have food to buy at some point, because there was The Horrible US and The Terrible Europe who wanted to eliminate us all. We know how this story ended.

The world has changed since then and a lot of naivism/optimism has been noted meanwhile. At least we, Europeans, like to think we are some sort of new specie and finally found a persistant way toward peace and prosperity. Imagine now the shock of witnessing full scale war somewhere close to central part of Europe. We are truly insulted by Scholts behaviour, because he puts German citizen fears and hopes in front of other EU members. We feel offended when Macron puts hes relations with Putin and Russia in higher place than Estonian security, for example. We help Poland if Belorussia is sending immigrants to the border. Russia has occupied (sorry, liberated from nazis, but forgot to return to home for 45 years) half of Europe not so much time ago, so it is also very real threat for a whole Europe.

Another thing convincing us about the right path is the vawes of immigration, from south and east. If Syria is in war, refugees move en masse to Europe. If there is a Ukrainian war, refugees move in masse to Europe. If there is war in Libya, refugees move en masse to Europe. And we try to help all of those people, because it is a decent and moral thing to do. We cannot avoid war in different parts of the World, we cannot prevent the revolutions in badly managed countries and we still believe it is not our right to kill all the authocrats despite all the mess they are constantly creating. What we can do is to help people in need and sometimes we succeed doing that. Ah, I cannot keep i t to myself- Ukrainian refugees sang most beautifully one of the most beautiful Estonian song to celebrate our independace day a few days ago :

Unfortunately we cannot absorb the rest of the Earth population, so there is another solution to offer. Very simply put- live yourself and let others to live. Do not mess with the borders of independant nations, do not play this game of thrones in expence of simple citizens, trying to live their lives and raise their childrens. Because if you do, we get another vawe of immigrants we need to feed and shelter. Is this selfish? At some extent, yes.
 
Last edited:

UkroTurk

Experienced member
Land Warfare Specialist
Professional
Messages
2,684
Reactions
55 4,804
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 85 attacks and shot down two UAVs - General Staff



The Ukrainian army has been rebuffing the enemy for 371 days

Russian troops continue to advance in five directions and fire at peaceful settlements in Ukraine.

Over the past day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed more than 85 enemy attacks in the Kupyansky, Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky and Shakhtyorsky directions. This was announced on March 1 by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the morning report.

Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 650 occupiers in a day - General Staff



The Ukrainian army continues to destroy the manpower and equipment of the enemy

In total, since the beginning of a full-scale war on the territory of Ukraine, more than 149,000 Russian soldiers have died.

From February 24, 2022 to March 1, 2023, the total losses of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine amounted to approximately 149,890 people (+650 per day). This was announced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


Air defense shot down four Shaheda at night



Air defense shot down Iranian drones launched by Russia

On the night of February 28 to March 1, the enemy attacked Ukraine from the northern direction with attack drones of the Shahed type.

The Ukrainian military at night shot down four Iranian kamikaze drones, which the Russian troops launched from the northern direction. This was announced on March 1 by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


Russians killed three residents of Donetsk region in a day



Consequences of enemy shelling in the Donetsk region

Since the beginning of the war, 1,391 civilians have been killed and more than 3,100 injured in enemy attacks in the region.

Over the past day, three people became victims of Russian shelling in the Donetsk region, four more were injured. This was announced on March 1 by the head of the regional military administration, Pavel Kirilenko.


Five people became victims of the Russian Federation in the Kherson region



The consequences of the shelling of Kherson on February 28

People are dying because of enemy shelling, as well as explosives left by the Russians, the OVA stressed.

The troops of the Russian Federation fired at peaceful settlements of the Kherson region 86 times a day from MLRS, mortars, artillery, tanks, UAVs and aviation. This was announced on March 1 by the press service of the regional military administration.


It is noted that the enemy hit the residential areas of Kherson nine times. Russian shells damaged the territory of the state enterprise and the houses of Kherson residents.

"Over the past day in the Kherson region, due to Russian aggression, five people were killed, seven were injured of varying severity," the OVA stressed.
 
Last edited:

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,797
Reactions
98 9,198
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
I understand your position and partially agree with you, but in this case, nobody asked Asian or African countries to “expend themselves economically or militarily“. I didn’t say far away Asian countries should donate weapons or money to Ukraine, but it costs nothing to condemn the Russian aggression at the UN.
I stated it as a genral rule.
Not Specific to the current situation.

Let me clarify it little further.

For developing countries, we don't have to donate money to expand ourselves economically. Trying to take even verbal stance could jeopardize critical energy/food cooperation.
but it costs nothing to condemn the Russian aggression at the UN.
Oh trust me, it cost more than it looks. Specially for small countries when you are not under someone else’s protective umbrella.
It’s about taking a stand and show you are on the right side of history at no cost.

As for the energy/food crisis, that will happen regardless of a country’s position at the UN. No amount of ”neutrality“ on this issue will shield you from the energy/food crisis.
Actually, neutrality does shield from certain problems. For example, in my country where energy is a problem right now we are close to ignite our first nuclear power plant, and It should take some pressure off. However the issue is, Russia is the builder and operator of the plant.
what if given our moral stance Russians decided to use some kind of delay tactic¿ It will only deepen the energy problem that we are already in.
The best way to avoid the energy/food crisis is to support a quicker end to the conflict,
I agree, the best way to end current food/energy problem is to end the war.

And all the developing countries does support a quicker end to the conflict.
 
Last edited:

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,797
Reactions
98 9,198
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
Well, it is not just like “any other war”. It is very distinct from any war in the last 30 years (since the end of the Cold War) because:
1. It’s the first time a democratic country is being invaded
2. It is an invasion with the aim to annex teritory and redraw the map
3. It’s the most intense heavy war in recent times, with a rate of fire far above anything seen recently
4. It’s a war between a very powerful country with a huge nuclear arsenal, and a strong country supported by very powerful allies

This war challenges the entire post Cold War world order.
I agree that, this conflict is different given the annexation and the territorial changes.
Until this invasion, all a country had to to in order to be safe from aggression was to be democratic and refrain from killing its people (including minorities). If you played by the rules, you were safe. But this war challanged the rules, and now every country feels threatened. If Ukraine can be invaded, and others don’t do anything, it means any other country can suffer the same fate.
That is exactly where rest of us would disagree.
Where you see it as a breakdown of order and the growth of threat/risk for others small countries to be invaded in other part of the world if this Russian invasion goes unpunished, we see this concentration by trans Atlantic alliance to punish Russia ( in the name of liberty and justice and protecting the world order for all ) as a simple raw effort to protect their own geopolitical and security interest.

Meaning, if tomorrow in some other parts of the world any invasion of an small country by a bigger aggressor were to occur, we wouldn’t even see 1/7 of the effort ( of what we saw in Ukraine ) to prevent it or punish the aggressor.

So For for rest of the world, Ukraine war is just like another war in this perspective.
It doesn’t add any new dimension to our national security or insecurity.

Because, So far by and large it is not the western world order that protected the sovereignty of small countries in other part of the world. It is either those small countries has the necessary means to protect themselves or for bigger countries, such invasion wasn’t worth it.

I think @Gary would also agree With that assessmemt.
 
Last edited:

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Well, it is not just like “any other war”. It is very distinct from any war in the last 30 years (since the end of the Cold War) because:
1. It’s the first time a democratic country is being invaded
2. It is an invasion with the aim to annex teritory and redraw the map
3. It’s the most intense heavy war in recent times, with a rate of fire far above anything seen recently
4. It’s a war between a very powerful country with a huge nuclear arsenal, and a strong country supported by very powerful allies
Not saying that your lists are wrong, but I refuse, the underlying reasons why Ukraine war is somewhat more important to the West is

1. It happens right at European doorsteps
2. The victim looks like you and shares your lifestyle and culture.

When early in the war, the world (means the West) were shocked at Russia finally doing it, many media were shocked to the fact that Ukraine, a civilized country were being invaded. I remember one TV station (iirc CN*C) pundit saying it this way :

" The Ukrainians aren't like anything out there,....they're civilized, they drove cars just like ours here..."

There are many examples of apathetic Western exceptionalism if you look closely, and most comes down to cultural and race.

So no Ukraine war is not a different phenomenon to any country out thee, just the size and complexity. And countries wishing to stay neutral are not to be blamed here.

Off course in the ideal world, I would like all UN participant to condemn Russia, but nothing is ideal in this world.
This war challenges the entire post Cold War world order.

Which is an order created by the West, countries which is no winners/losers in this order has every right to stay neutral.
Until this invasion, all a country had to to in order to be safe from aggression was to be democratic and refrain from killing its people (including minorities). If you played by the rules, you were safe. But this war challanged the rules, and now every country feels threatened. If Ukraine can be invaded, and others don’t do anything, it means any other country can suffer the same fate. It means going back to the pre-WW2 order of dictatorships invading neighbors to annex territories.

Yes, the word here is "must be democratic"... if not they deserve destruction the way Iraq or Libya does.

Sometimes, look close enough you can see similarity in the perception of that of China/Russia and the collective West when it comes to people around them. The only difference here is what is deemed precious for each side of the party.

The scale of the war and the geopolitical importance of the two factions means this war will have repercussions all over the world, regardless of a country’s neutrality.

Unlike recent wars in Africa, this war can cause severe repercussions to the global economy, energy/food crisis and can even lead to a new Cold War, if China decides to side with Russia.

Geopolitical importance to West/Europe =/= geopolitical importance for the rest of the world. Ukraine might be a big deal for some countries national security, while for others, its just another war which we have no idea of.

Here in Indonesia, I still eat the way I eat.. rice is quite plenty, chilli is a little expensive...but we don't have a fear of food shortage anytime soon.
 

Mailman

Active member
Messages
99
Reactions
183
Nation of residence
Estonia
Nation of origin
Estonia
I agree that, this conflict is different given the annexation and the territorial changes.

That is exactly where rest of us would disagree.
Where you see it as a breakdown of order and the growth of threat/risk for others small countries to be invaded in other part of the world if this Russian invasion goes unpunished, we see this concentration by trans Atlantic alliance to punish Russia ( in the name of liberty and justice and protecting the world order for all ) as a simple raw effort to protect their own geopolitical and security interest.

Meaning, if tomorrow in some other parts of the world any invasion of an small country by a bigger aggressor were to occur, we wouldn’t even see 1/7 of the effort ( of what we saw in Ukraine ) to prevent it or punish the aggressor.
To be honest, only US posesses an ability to transfer their military power globally. In this sense Europe is conveniently sitting in a back seat and leave the hard work for Americans. Why Americans are willing to support Europe- US tried twice not to get involved with evolving world wars and failed both times. Now they take it as unpleasant yet neccessary duty, challenged by quite some influential players within US.

I am still amazed from the sheer amount of expectations toward US and then toward Europe. Yes, we could do, perhaps, something about it, but it is damn costly for us too. If developing countries want to get such kind of global social security service, it is about the time to discuss this. UN is going to be reformed in close future because it failed to avoid such wars or preserve international order in broader sense. The war in Ukraine delivers this critical message. Please remember, it has price tag on it.
Because, So far by and large it is not the western world order that protected the sovereignty of small countries in other part of the world. It is either those small countries has the necessary means to protect themselves or for bigger countries, such invasion wasn’t worth it.

I think @Gary would also agree With that assessmemt.
Again, too much to ask. Is Bangladesh willing to use its small resources to avoid conflict between India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers? Probalby not. Still I may ask naively, why not?!? Are they not an independant countries, worth of Bangladesh efforts? Do you not care about Indians or Pakistanis? Not being able to develop your country enough is not a sufficient excuse...
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Indeed, but one has to take the broader view hereby. Up to 90-s there was existencial struggle between two ideologies, between wannabe communists and pragmatic capitalists. This was backed up with real weapons of mass-destruction, which are used also in modern disputes. I saw this from inside the USSR and I can tell you, this was not a game. You see this vast arsenal of weapons, prepared for attacking West-Europe, rolling around in Ukrainian fields now. Quite literally, we did not have food to buy at some point, because there was The Horrible US and The Terrible Europe who wanted to eliminate us all. We know how this story ended.
Don't get me wrong, I respect your view as a living insider from ex-Soviet states, but for Indonesian context (and the likes of many cold war battlefields), the way I saw it (the Cold war) is just brothers against brothers fighting with their faraway masters order. And in the end the masters of that order doesn't even reward their dogs.

The world has changed since then and a lot of naivism/optimism has been noted meanwhile. At least we, Europeans, like to think we are some sort of new specie and finally found a persistant way toward peace and prosperity. Imagine now the shock of witnessing full scale war somewhere close to central part of Europe. We are truly insulted by Scholts behaviour, because he puts German citizen fears and hopes in front of other EU members. We feel offended when Macron puts hes relations with Putin and Russia in higher place than Estonian security, for example. We help Poland if Belorussia is sending immigrants to the border. Russia has occupied (sorry, liberated from nazis, but forgot to return to home for 45 years) half of Europe not so much time ago, so it is also very real threat for a whole Europe.

There's a saying for this:

Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

Another thing convincing us about the right path is the vawes of immigration, from south and east. If Syria is in war, refugees move en masse to Europe. If there is a Ukrainian war, refugees move in masse to Europe. If there is war in Libya, refugees move en masse to Europe. And we try to help all of those people, because it is a decent and moral thing to do.
I'm 50/50 with this. The Germans treat the refugee quite nicely, but some like the Eastern Europeans literally put humans in cages and set up hunting dogs...to hunt people.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not siding 100% with refugees, if the Syrians used the same amount of efforts they use to get into Europe, Assad might be overthrown by now. But they choose to fled.

What we can do is to help people in need and sometimes we succeed doing that.

Taking refugee is not just a European thing, when Spain is busy with their expulsion of jews (and muslims), it was the Ottoman muslims that cater them...does this translate into gratitude centuries later ?

Europe preach, they must exercise what they preached...Universal human right, treatment of the weak...isn't this what people claimed to be part of European values ?

we wouldn’t even see 1/7 of the effort ( of what we saw in Ukraine ) to prevent it or punish the aggressor.

So For for rest of the world, Ukraine war is just like another war in this perspective.
It doesn’t add any new dimension to our national security or insecurity.

The problem for stand alone countries (the likes of you and mine) is the cost of doing such...you see there's a differing mathematics when it comes to cost benefit analysis that when it comes to the West is completely fine but is a matter of deep geopolitcal risks to the others.

If Europe criticize, condemn or even punish Russia, they're doing this knowing that they have each others back when shit comes to shove.

I give you one example...


For the Europeans/West and many out there this is the big proof of Lithuania bravery that counterweight its tiny size with gigantic hears and courage able to do what other larger nations can't.
But it just happens that brave Lithuania, is doing this in the safety of NATO and EU umbrella (EU has its own mutual defense treaty) and from thousands of Km away. And they know Germany will bankroll them.

There's a saying :
Its easy to be brave when you know nothing will hurt you
The rest of the world doesn't have luxury of NATO article 5 or EU article 42.7 to play hero the like of Lithuania.

Its very easy to condemn Putin in the UN, just direct the nations UN reps to push the condemn button and wallaaaa...but in the end there's no reward for doing this and we have made a problem with Russia in the long run. Some of these countries are even dependant on Russia for their national security (arms imports).
 

Follow us on social media

Top Bottom