Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Nilgiri]

In one scene, Governor Quinctilius Varus forced a German barbarian to kiss the Roman Aquilla (Eagle), he refused and die decapitated. Confronted by his adopted son Arminius that such practice is not accepted by local law. This is Governor Varus reply

Couldn't help but remembering something pretty similar happening to Russians themselves w.r.t Prince Michael and the Mongols. Ironic.

 

[Relic]

Monthly update on the number of tanks that the West has committed to Ukraine for 2023. Not included in this list are any of the tanks that were provided to Ukraine in 2022.

USA: 31 Abrams A1A2 MBTs
U.K.: 28 Challenger 2 MBTs (waiting for U.K. confirmation)
Germany: 18 Leopard 2A6 MBTs
Poland: 14 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Poland: 30 PT-91 Twardy MBTs
Poland: 30 T-72B MBTs
Morocco: 20 T-72 MBTs
Canada: 8 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Sweden: 10 Leopard 2A4/5 MBTs
Finland: 3 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Portugal: 3 Leopard 2A6 MBTs
Spain: 10 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Norway: 8 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Czech Republic: 90 T-72 MBTs (funded by USA / Netherlands)
Germany / Netherlands / Denmark: 100 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
Slovenia: 28 T-55S MBTs

Total: 431 MBTs (331 not including the Leopard 1A5s)

How many more MBTs could, realistically, be committed in 2023?
USA: 31 M1A2 MBTs
Germany (Rheinmetall): 20 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Belgium (Arms dealer): 100+ Leopard 1A5 MBTs
Poland: 30 PT91-Twardy MBTs
Finland: 10 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
Morocco: 100+ T-72 MBTs (would require Western countries to purchase / backfill)
Spain: 10 Leopard 2A4 MBTs

Total: 301 other MBTs could, realistically, also be sent to to Ukraine this year.

 

[Nykyus]

My entire view is that because politics are inherently evil, being heartless is not only allowed but is a requirement of itself. In the end this is the game of power not charity. Your move will either advance your interest or kill it. Good thing for us that our condemnation are followed by 146 others and our socio-politic-economic ties with Russia aren't that big tbh. And because everybody is being evil when it suits their interest, at least I feel comfortable being evil this time. While Invasion in the contemporary time is not advisable, its completely normal and certainly nothing to be shocked about. War is politics by other means, and it kinda irked me to see Westerners complain about war near home when they have brought war and devastate entire people and society for the last 100 years or so and continue to do so.

You are captivated by the illusions of the 1960s-1980s, when the USSR was really strong, and its economy was the second in the world after the USA. The Russians themselves admit that their Pacific Fleet is extremely weak and will not even be enough to protect their coast. You look at the Russian Black Sea Fleet, where Ukraine, which does not have a fleet, sank two dozen Russian ships and the Russians are now afraid to use the fleet, land troops and so on.
Since gaining independence from the tyranny of the USSR, Russia has done nothing but destroy its infrastructure, its public institutions. It sold its oil and gas, receiving European and Chinese goods in return, creating the illusion of a happy and abundant life for its citizens. But it did not create its own industry, its own agricultural industry. In this regard, the President of Belarus Lukashenko was wiser, he did not ruin the state farms inherited from the USSR and still produces tractors of the brand "Belarus".
The only thing Russia can threaten is blackmail with the use of atomic weapons, of which there really are many. But Russia will not dare to do this, because the daughters and sons of Russian officials study in the United States, which is not at all a patriotic act for them.

The biggest worry is a Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, because if you push them too hard, Russia will arrive at the point where there is nothing to loose. And even a bit of Russian help in the Pacific would be a disaster consider China's naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. The better solution for Indo-Pac country is to stay silent and do nothing, neither condemn nor abstain.

I'm certainly not a man of whataboutism, in fact I take politics as it is, and view them from the same perspective. If there's whataboutism that would come from you.


Rape is rape, never in my life has I start identifying rape as rape lvl.1, rape lvl.2, rape lvl.3 and so on.


Did we reject the global community in the first place lmao ?

And what prevents Indonesia from cooperating with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea in advanced technologies? It seems that they do not suffer from xenophobia and racism, because they are people of the same race as you.
Indonesia can take over the role of the global factory from China in order to get rich. This is an assembly of computers, solar panels.
Indonesia is also rich in oil, has a beautiful natural environment that can attract wealthy Western tourists.
After all, international cooperation means not only military-political confrontation, but also ecology, with which China is not getting along, because China, in the pursuit of wealth, spoiled its rivers and rare animal species died out there. Cooperation in the field of medicine within the WHO, which is also part of the UN.
China will not provide this at all, because there is zero contribution to fundamental science in China. They don't have cutting edge technology. Their role was the global factory, that is, they created the technological innovations of Western countries.

 

[contricusc]

Anyway, looking at Turkiye's experiment of trying to be accepted as part of Western order and the rejection that comes after it, should give us an idea that we do not put our foot to deep in the current geopolitical arrangement.

What rejection? Turkey is part of NATO, it has plenty of high tech Western weapons and lots of trade with Europe. If it was not for Erdogan, relations with the West would have been even better.

The U.S will likely go to war with China in the Pacific, and its not even because of us,. But because of Taiwan. Indonesia will at best look from the sideline and gave statement regarding our concern of the destabilizing situation around indopac.

For us, if the US succeed congratulations, but if China wins, Jakarta will likely change course and formulate a new foreign policy design to better suit the reality around them. for us, it will be annoying, but for the U.S and its western security order, it will be a disaster of unimaginable proportion if they lose.

So yes, we could be neutral when it comes to Europe and we're not expecting the U.S to retaliate by cozying with China anytime soon

If it really comes to war in the Pacific between China and the US, than there will be no way to remain neutral in such a nightmare scenario.

There are mostly three possible ways for such a conflict to start:
1. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan with weapons and supplies, China hits at the US ships supplying Taiwan, and the US joins the war
2. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan by entering directly into the war and attacking Chinese warships
3. China directly attacks the US ships and bases in the region, trying to get an advantage by striking first and by surprise

In all three scenarios China is seen as the aggressor, so it will be very easy for the US to create an international alliance that will support it in the war. Australia, Japan, South Korea are already allies. NATO members will be forced to join because of Article 5. Now with such a strong alliance and under direct attack, the US will force the hand of every other country in the region to choose sides. This is what happens in World Wars when you happen to be close to the conflict.

The Philippines and Indonesia have a very important and strategic location in the region, so I see it very unlikely that they could avoid getting involved, at least by providing airfields and resupply locations, and of course, participating in the economic blocade.

If it ends up with WW3, every significant country will have to choose a side, and Indonesia is a very big country in the region.

People could believe everything they like, but its funny that this assessment comes from....Romania. People surrounding CHN doesn't take the threat that lightly.

What does my country has to do with having an informed opinion about naval forces in the Pacific? While I understand that countries closer to China have all the reasons to be more worried about it, this doesn’t change the fact that the US Navy is by far the most powerful in the World, and this won’t change very soon.

China must be really stupid to start a war against Taiwan. Such a move would be more suicidal than Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

[contricusc]

But if you mean, western support.....Well, non of us believe if something happens to our countries, West will come running to provide arms or put sanctions against the aggressor anyway.

Well, it is the West that is imposing sanctions on Myanmar for abusing the Rohynga, not China and Russia. The West doesn’t shy away from condemning attrocities even when they are far away and don’t pose a direct theat to us.

Nobody asked for Bangladesh to send weapons or money to Ukraine, but a formal condemnation would have been welcomed, just like the West is condemning the Myanmar Junta for its killings.

 

[Afif]

If it really comes to war in the Pacific between China and the US, than there will be no way to remain neutral in such a nightmare scenario.

There are mostly three possible ways for such a conflict to start:
1. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan with weapons and supplies, China hits at the US ships supplying Taiwan, and the US joins the war
2. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan by entering directly into the war and attacking Chinese warships
3. China directly attacks the US ships and bases in the region, trying to get an advantage by striking first and by surprise

In all three scenarios China is seen as the aggressor, so it will be very easy for the US to create an international alliance that will support it in the war. Australia, Japan, South Korea are already allies. NATO members will be forced to join because of Article 5.

Have you ever actually read the Article 5?

What rejection? Turkey is part of NATO, it has plenty of high tech Western weapons and lots of trade with Europe. If it was not for Erdogan, relations with the West would have been even better.



If it really comes to war in the Pacific between China and the US, than there will be no way to remain neutral in such a nightmare scenario.

There are mostly three possible ways for such a conflict to start:
1. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan with weapons and supplies, China hits at the US ships supplying Taiwan, and the US joins the war
2. China attacks Taiwan, the US helps Taiwan by entering directly into the war and attacking Chinese warships
3. China directly attacks the US ships and bases in the region, trying to get an advantage by striking first and by surprise

the US will force the hand of every other country in the region to choose sides. This is what happens in World Wars when you happen to be close to the conflict.

Turkey was very close to the conflict in WW II.
Nobody couldn't force their hand to choose side.

Countries like Indonesia and even Bangladesh could definitely stay neutral in the military sense if there is a war breaks out between China and USA.

China must be really stupid to start a war against Taiwan. Such a move would be more suicidal than Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Yes they wouldn't, expect if Taiwan formally declare independence.

Then there is no going back.

Besides, Taiwan is not a sovereign country.

 

[bisbis]

The Germans intend to build a tank plant in Ukraine

View attachment 54600

The plant can produce up to 400 Panther tanks per year

Negotiations are underway on the construction of a tank plant in Ukraine. The head of the Rheinmetall concern hopes that a decision will be made in the next two months.

The German arms concern Rheinmetall intends to build a tank plant in Ukraine. Negotiations are already underway about this. This was stated by the head of the company Armin Papperger, Spiegel reports



"For about 200 million euros, a Rheinmetall plant can be built in Ukraine, which would produce up to 400 (tanks - ed.) Panthers per year. Negotiations with the Ukrainian government are promising, and I hope that a decision will be made in the next two months," - Papper noted.

According to him, the plant can be protected from Russian air raids, and this "protection by air defense will not be difficult."

"To win the war, Ukraine needs from 600 to 800 tanks, and to meet this need, production must be established promptly," the head of Rheinmetall said.

He noted that even if Germany abandons all 300 Leopard 2 tanks available to the Bundeswehr, this will still be too little.

According to Papperger, the concern is currently working "in full force" and is producing about 250 tanks.

Rheinmetall will Panzerfabrik in der Ukraine aufbauen

Die westlichen Verbündeten kratzen seit Monaten mühsam Panzer für die Ukraine zusammen – doch das Land braucht wohl noch Hunderte. Nun verhandelt Rheinmetall mit Kiew über den Aufbau einer eigenen Panther-Fertigung.

www.spiegel.de

perception attempt for full propaganda. I am sure that in response to this well-intentioned attempt of the Germans, the Russians will show goodwill and if it is done, they will not hit this tank factory.

I wonder why Baykar hasn't built his gun factory yet? Do the Germans know anything?

 

[Slayer]

I think you are referring to Sweden, because I don’t know how Finland pissed off the Turks. From what I understand, Turkey would have no problem with approving Finland’s entry into NATO if their application was separated from that of Sweden.

While I understand Turkey’s issues with Sweden, I don’t think that opposing their accession to NATO is a good strategic decision for Turkey. Europeans don’t like to be forced to refuse one of their own, and Turkey is looking a lot less European when refusing to accept Sweden.

I think it is in the best interest of Turkey to be as close as possible with the EU and to work on creating an image of a European country for itself. But under Erdogan, Turkey has tried to be more Asian and less European, and I don’t think this is a good strategy, simply because Turkey’s Asian neighbors are a lot less powerful and influential than the EU.

The EU and Europeans have never and will never see Turkiye as a European country for one reason only: religion. The EU is a christian club. The former Danish PM Anders Fogh made that very clear when he forgot that his microphone was not switched off and said that Turkiye will remain a candidate and NEVER become a member country.

 

[Gary]

I think the thread has been derailed so much. For conversations wrt China, Taiwan, Indopac do it here...

China-US War?

defencehub.live

 

[Ecderha]

putin solider never learn

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632308772012978176

 

[GoatsMilk]

The EU and Europeans have never and will never see Turkiye as a European country for one reason only: religion. The EU is a christian club. The former Danish PM Anders Fogh made that very clear when he forgot that his microphone was not switched off and said that Turkiye will remain a candidate and NEVER become a member country.

Its more a power thing then a religion thing. The religion thing is more like what "gang" they are part of.

For example countries like bulgaria and romania are geopolitically, culturally and historically insignificant compared to what Turkiye is and the wider world Turkiye can access like the Turkic states or so called Muslim world. Yet these nations who were communists yesterday can leapfrog Turkiye.

The EU's problem is they want to balkanise us and harm us. Hence their support for PKK terrorists, supporting greek hostility and chasing armenian dreams. All are intended to do us what Ataturk crushed at the end of world war one.

Its very possible that if Turkiye was a full member of the EU that we would rise to become its most significant member. Our population is already bigger then the rest of the EU, on top of this there is another 10 to 20 million Turks in Europe already. Once our west is secured its obvious that the middle east, caucases and central asia as well as north africa would come into the fold.

Now the benefit to the EU is that she could become a truly global power who has the ability to show herself capable of respecting the rest of the worlds cultures, religions and traditions. But they dont want that, they want to harm us, balkanise us and hope they can take the land and redistribute it to others.

Truth be told the EU is a criminal organisation that if given an army would behave just as bad as Russia behaves. It was a good the UK left.

 

[Ryder]

Its more a power thing then a religion thing. The religion thing is more like what "gang" they are part of.

For example countries like bulgaria and romania are geopolitically, culturally and historically insignificant compared to what Turkiye is and the wider world Turkiye can access like the Turkic states or so called Muslim world. Yet these nations who were communists yesterday can leapfrog Turkiye.

The EU's problem is they want to balkanise us and harm us. Hence their support for PKK terrorists, supporting greek hostility and chasing armenian dreams. All are intended to do us what Ataturk crushed at the end of world war one.

Its very possible that if Turkiye was a full member of the EU that we would rise to become its most significant member. Our population is already bigger then the rest of the EU, on top of this there is another 10 to 20 million Turks in Europe already. Once our west is secured its obvious that the middle east, caucases and central asia as well as north africa would come into the fold.

Now the benefit to the EU is that she could become a truly global power who has the ability to show herself capable of respecting the rest of the worlds cultures, religions and traditions. But they dont want that, they want to harm us, balkanise us and hope they can take the land and redistribute it to others.

Truth be told the EU is a criminal organisation that if given an army would behave just as bad as Russia behaves. It was a good the UK left.

Not to mention how they got Cyprus in first.

 

[Relic]

According to a source, Britain is increasing the number of AS-90 self-propelled howitzers that they are sending to Ukraine. Initially they announced a batch of 8 that would be sent, with the option to send as many as 30. According to the source, Britain will now donate 33 AS-90s.

Of course, the major concern remains the west's collective ability to keep Ukraine supplied with adequate artillery shells to keep their artillery firing 4000-5000 rounds per day.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632350550028173314

 

[Relic]

Update on the number of artillery pieces donated to Ukraine by its allies. This list will not be fully comprehensive because some countries simply refuse to disclose donations and quantities of donated items, but this is what we know. This list also does not include rocket artillery or MLRS, which I categorize differently.

Towed Artillery

USA: 142 M777, 155mm towed howitzers
USA: 72 M119, 105mm towed howitzers
Britain: 54, L119, 105mm towed howitzers
Canada: 4 M777, 155mm towed howitzers
Australia: 6 M777, 155mm towed howitzers
Lithuania: 18 M101, 105mm towed howitzers
Estonia: 20 D-30, 122mm towed howitzers
Estonia: 24 FH-70, 155mm towed howitzers
Croatia: 24 M-46, 130mm towed howitzers
Spain: 6 105mm OTO Melara Mod 56 howitzers
Bulgaria: 20+ D-20, 152mm towed howitzers
Italy: 8 FH-70, 155mm towed howitzers
France: 15, TRF1, 155mm towed howitzers

Total: 413+ towed howitzers

Self Propelled Artillery

Poland: 20+ 2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm self-propelled howitzers
Czech Republic: 12 2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm self-propelled howitzers
Czech Republic: 7 shKH DANA, 152mm self-propelled howitzers
France: 30 CAESAR, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Denmark: 19 CAESAR, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Germany: 14 PZH 2000, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Italy: 6 PZH 2000, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Netherlands: 8 PZH 2000, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Poland: 18 AHS Krab, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Ukraine: 8 shKH Zuzana 2, 155mm self-propelled howitzers (purchased from Slovakia)
Germany / Norway / Denmark: 16 shKH Zuzana 2, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
USA: 18 M109A6, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Norway: 23 M109A3, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Italy: 20 M109L, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Britain: 20 M109A4, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Britain: 33 AS-90, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Latvia: 6 M109A5, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Sweden: 12 Archer, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
Ukraine: 100 PZH 2000, 155mm self-propelled howitzers (purchased from Germany)
Ukraine: 54 AHS Krab, 155mm self-propelled howitzers (purchased from Poland)
Ukraine: 18 RCH-155, 155mm self-propelled howitzers (purchased from Germany)
Ukraine: 26 shKH DANA M2, 152mm self-propelled howitzers (purchased from Czech Republic)

Total: 488+ towed howitzers

Thus far 901+ towed and self-propelled howitzers have been committed Ukraine or purchased from the West by Ukraine, through security building capacity funding.

 

[UkroTurk]

According to a source, Britain is increasing the number of AS-90 self-propelled howitzers that they are sending to Ukraine. Initially they announced a batch of 8 that would be sent, with the option to send as many as 30. According to the source, Britain will now donate 33 AS-90s.

Of course, the major concern remains the west's collective ability to keep Ukraine supplied with adequate artillery shells to keep their artillery firing 4000-5000 rounds per day.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632350550028173314

Britain doubling number of Challenger tanks for Ukraine

Britain denies doubling number of Challenger tanks for Ukraine

Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko has stated that the United Kingdom has decided to double its pledge of 14 Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632305001874718720

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632222364959232001

 

[Fuzuli NL]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632305001874718720

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632222364959232001

He's clearly bargaining for more money and authority.
This statement is for Mr Putin more than anybody else.

 

[MaciekRS]

According to a source, Britain is increasing the number of AS-90 self-propelled howitzers that they are sending to Ukraine. Initially they announced a batch of 8 that would be sent, with the option to send as many as 30. According to the source, Britain will now donate 33 AS-90s.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632350550028173314

I hope they will actually start to SEND those AS 90.
Is been a year and so far they TALK about it while Poland already send 72 Krabs (not couting many, many 122mm Gozdiks)

 

[GoatsMilk]

Not to mention how they got Cyprus in first.

If tomorrow the french get their dream of creating an EU army the first place they would deploy it would be in south cyprus against us.

 

[Relic]

Britain doubling number of Challenger tanks for Ukraine

Britain denies doubling number of Challenger tanks for Ukraine

Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko has stated that the United Kingdom has decided to double its pledge of 14 Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Posted that one yesterday! 28 is a nice upgrade.