Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Gary

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Will not be surprised if KF-51 will be the mainstay of a rebuilt Ukraine army armor core.

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Relic

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Will not be surprised if KF-51 will be the mainstay of a rebuilt Ukraine army armor core.

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I think you'll see a mixture of Ukrainian (upgraded) T-84 Oplots and KF-51 Panthers. I think you'll eventually see Ukraine purchase about 500 of the cheaper Oplots and about 250 of the Panthers, giving them about 750 new MBTs in total. We're probably talking about 5-7 years from now, however.

In the meantime, the core of their tank force will consist of T-72s and Leo 1s and Leo 2s. They've lost a considerable amount of their T-64s and I suspect that very few will be left by the conclusion of the war.

I think they wind up being supplied with about 500 T-72s, 150 Leopard 2s and 200 Leopard 1s by the conclusion of by summer 2024.
 

Kathirz

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Two RU Mi-8 Helis and a Su-34 were downed near Briansk, first reports are stating they were downed by own Russian AD. Some theories going on:


I would not be surprised if they are freaking out after the allegedly hits with Storm Shadow in Luhansk, so they are just shooting everything on the radar.
How morale doing:



Edit: Update a SU-34 also in the same morning:

 
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Relic

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Enormous new military aid package from Germany 🇩🇪 has been announced. It's the largest single non-American military aid package of the war, totaling $2.7 Billion euros. Contents of the package include:

30 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
20 Marder 1A3 IFVs
18 Panzerhaubitze 2000, 155mm self-propelled howitzers
4 IRIS-T SLM air defense systems
12 IRIS-T SLS air defense launchers
Unknown quantity of air defense missiles
15 Gepard anti-aircraft systems
200 reconnaissance drones
100 Protected combat vehicles
100 Logistical vehicles

The transfer of the items is expected to take place over the coming weeks and months. Some of the package can be shipped in short order, while other components (namely air defense) will be shipped gradually. There will be a news conference held in Germany on Sunday, providing greater details on this package.


This is a significant package, that helps Ukraine in a variety of ways. Combined with yesterday's news that German arms dealer Rheinmetall and Ukrainian arms dealer Ukroboronprom are going to jointly create tanks, ammunition and air defense systems, the German impact on this war just ratcheted up substantially this week!
 
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Gary

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5 if we add the Mi-28 that crashed in Crimea today.

1x Mi-28
2x Mi-8
1X Su-35
1X Su-34

Oryx only listed aircraft in combat/ on its way to combat...some of Russian losses, like the Mi-28 that crashed in Crimea are not in the list,and the MiG-31 that dived into the frozen lake last April is not on the list.


The Su-34 got the hardest (fixed wing) beatings, losing 21 out of a fleet of 153 ever built (incl 7 test planes). If we add mishaps pre war or the Su-34 that's 26 planes lost out of 153, that's 17% of the fleet already lost and likely keep losing.
 

Relic

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Huge news out of Switzerland 🇨🇭. It appears they their Parliament has voted in favour of backfilling Western Allies who donate their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The Swiss have nearly 100 Leopard 2A4 MBTs in storage. They are willing to sell an undisclosed number back to Rheinmetall, who can then upgrade them as required and send them to Western partners who, in turn, send their Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

 
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Relic

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News is starting to spread that during his visit to Italy 🇮🇹 yesterday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made a substantial military commitment to Zelensky. Details have not yet been released, but among the possible commitments include...

- SAMP/T air defense systems
- Aspide air defense systems
- Storm Shadow cruise missiles
- AMX International ground attack aircraft
- Panavia Tornado attack aircraft
- Centauro tank destroyers IFVs

Any of those items would significantly boost Ukraine's defensive / offensive capabilities.
 

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