Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Jets delivered this year

x2 Su-30SM2 (another 2 not yet finished in the photo)
x2 Su-35S
x2 Su-34M

Last year:

x6 Su-57
x3 Su-35
x2 batch of' Su-34 (presumably 4 or less per batch)

That's 17-23 high end combat jets delivered to the VKS to make up for losses.

Oryx blog list of high end combat jet losses (excluding Su-25, Su24) is around 36 jets

edit :

x2 Su-30SM2 (another 2 not yet finished in the photo)
x2 Su-35S
x2 Su-34M

Last year:

x6 Su-57
x6-7 Su-35
x3 batch of' Su-34M (presumably 4 or less per batch)
x2 MiG-31BM
x2 Tu-160M almost finished (1 actually finished but not yet delivered, another one must have been finished already by now)

If the VKS could improve on its combat survivability even more, technically their air force could grow, at least when it comes to the higher end of combat jets.

This is one way they could increase survivability

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676600382259068929

 

[Dmitry]

russian terrorists attacked Lviv tonight by "Kalibr". Destroyed residential and office buildings. 35 houses and 50 cars were damaged
Now known about 4 killed and another 34 were injured

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676809627705417730

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676793338765221888

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676852027773669376

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676816472671232001

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukraine Has Caught Up With Russia’s Tank Numbers, Data Signal​

• New figures from Kiel Institute put tank deliveries at 471
• Russia’s fleet halves, but Kyiv needs more than parity to win

“Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” Radakin told the legislature’s defense committee. “Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year.”

 

[Gary]

Looks like Russia still has a healthy amount of L47/152 lying around

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676668227672330249

 

[Gary]

Must be really nice for the sailors of RF Pacific Fleet, not having to suffer like the army and air force in wet and muddy Donbass + having recreation in sunny Indonesia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668418983752597505

My bad, it seems that not even the Pacific fleet sailors is safe from the Donbass meat grinder.

Lieutenant or First Lieutenant Konstantin Laschin, died near Wuhledar on March 16. Actually served on the guided missile cruiser WARJAG (Pacific Fleet), but was last used in the Ukraine as an artillery platoon commander.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676351128718524416

 

[Gary]

My bad, it seems that not even the Pacific fleet sailors is safe from the Donbass meat grinder.

Lieutenant or First Lieutenant Konstantin Laschin, died near Wuhledar on March 16. Actually served on the guided missile cruiser WARJAG (Pacific Fleet), but was last used in the Ukraine as an artillery platoon commander.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676351128718524416

His high rank may suggest that he is not only a sailor but the officer of the Russian navy...which means their brains and talents wasted in Ukraine. Consider just how hard and expensive it is to train modern naval officer, this is a waste of key people in the navy.

 

[Afif]

@Gary et al.

 

[Gary]

@Gary et al.

Other than the Western bullshit he spew like "China is pushing for might makes right" or "dishonest neutrality" I can agree on most point. In fact about a year or two ago Shirvan, from Caspian Report makes it clear than Russia (then) refusal to be a 'junior partner' is a big issue for a united Russo-China bloc against the West. Now that Russia is weakened and has not much choice, China could happily and easily claim the 'senior' position of this bloc.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676946403161939969

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676956353821298690

 

[Relic]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676946403161939969

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676956353821298690

What's crazy is that Storm Shadow is a 30 year old cruise missile, developed in 1994. It's obsolete and Britain and France are giving them away because they're replacing them with newer, much more advanced systems.

Meanwhile, Russia thinks they've struck gold and can share some serious secrets with their own industry lol!

First washing machines and flushable toilets. Now the Russians are pumped about downing and capturing 3 decade old missiles ... I hope they don't find wireless headphones with Bluetooth, or a Smart phone/ watch... It'll blow their minds. They'll be claiming to have found alien technology.

 

[uçuyorum]

What's crazy is that Storm Shadow is a 30 year old cruise missile, developed in 1994. It's obsolete and Britain and France are giving them away because they're replacing them with newer, much more advanced systems.

Meanwhile, Russia thinks they've struck gold and can share some serious secrets with their own industry lol!

First washing machines and flushable toilets. Now the Russians are pumped about downing and capturing 3 decade old missiles ... I hope they don't find wireless headphones with Bluetooth, or a Smart phone/ watch... It'll blow their minds. They'll be claiming to have found alien technology.

I mean f22 is just as old

 

[UkroTurk]

The U.S. could make a decision on whether to approve the delivery of controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine as soon as this week, U.S. officials told CBS News on Wednesday.

Cluster munitions carry dozens of smaller bomblets that disperse when detonated and have been banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded bomblets can pose a risk to civilians for years after fighting is over.

U.S. could decide this week whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine

Cluster munitions carry dozens of smaller bomblets that disperse when detonated and have been banned by more than 100 countries.

www.cbsnews.com

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'working to deploy intercontinental missile'

A Ukrainian delegation led by the country's defence minister is in Seoul to ask for weapons to be used in the war, according to South Korean media. Meanwhile, Russian media reports suggest Moscow is still planning to deploy its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on combat duty.

news.sky.com

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676913399974752256

 

[BalkanTurk90]

Funny to see so many people understimate Russian power , After huge losse for west agaist Russia about sanction war that more harm caused to europe than Russia now those people speaks biased about power of Russia .
Do u know history?
Russia during ww2 That people were so poor but produced 100+k tanks and invaded German Nazism and capture Berlin . Those Russian same as todays Russians .
Russia had 3500 active tanks but some 20k were in reserve more than entire NATO together and if neccesary can produce 10k tanks per year . Russia is last hope for humanity agasit zionists globalists devils that want to take everything under control and destroy human race .

 

[Afif]

Real Funny stuff buddy!

 

[BalkanTurk90]

Real Funny stuff buddy!

Yeah funny but Russia control size of Greece in Ukraine even that entire NATO support them with everything from mercenaries money to spy sats and smart missiles .
Real funny

 

[Barry]

wat

 

[Relic]

I mean f22 is just as old

F-22 was / is so advanced and ahead of what the U.S. adversaries have, that they built enough of them and don't need anymore. Between F-22 and F-15EX, the U.S. will continue to have the best air superiority fighters in the world for some time.

Storm Shadow was a capability gap weapon, created to serve a purpose. France and Britain are moving beyond it, as technology in the cruise missile space has increased significantly, at a much better price. Britain, for instance, is turning to the newest variant of the Israeli Rampage cruise missile, which performs similarly, with better survivability, at a much cheaper cost.

There is nothing about Storm Shadow that is new or cutting edge. It's the same idea as Javelin, Stinger and NLAW. These systems might be new to Russians, who are notoriously behind in most military technologies, but they are old systems, that the West is already replacing and moving past.

So the comparison is not there. F-22, especially with the continual modernization it receives to stay cutting edge, is much further ahead if it's competition than Storm Shadow, which is a middle of the road cruise missile, in the process of being replaced.

Now, AGM-158C LRASM. That is a state-of-the-art cruise missile. It would be something worth capturing and thoroughly examining.

 

[Relic]

The U.S. could make a decision on whether to approve the delivery of controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine as soon as this week, U.S. officials told CBS News on Wednesday.

Cluster munitions carry dozens of smaller bomblets that disperse when detonated and have been banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded bomblets can pose a risk to civilians for years after fighting is over.

U.S. could decide this week whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine

Cluster munitions carry dozens of smaller bomblets that disperse when detonated and have been banned by more than 100 countries.

www.cbsnews.com

View attachment 59032
View attachment 59033

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'working to deploy intercontinental missile'

A Ukrainian delegation led by the country's defence minister is in Seoul to ask for weapons to be used in the war, according to South Korean media. Meanwhile, Russian media reports suggest Moscow is still planning to deploy its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on combat duty.

news.sky.com

The U.S. has 3 million of them in storage and no real use for them. Might as well send them to Ukraine and let them rain hell down on the Russians with them.

1. They're already paid for and will cost extra to be decommissioned if they're not donated and used. It's literally cheaper to send them to Ukraine than it is to continue to store them and decomission them slowly.

2. Sending cluster munitions takes the stress of of 155mm artillery shell usage. If you send a million cluster munitions to be used against Russian soft targets (orcs in trenches), that's 1 million more 155mm HE and GPS guided shells that you can save for hardened Russian targets such as armoured vehicles, artillery and bases of operations. The goal of the West is for Russia's armoured and artillery corps' to be shattered. This is a perfect way to help out with that goal.

It makes sense that you wouldn't want to waste a precious artillery shell that has more value to Russians than their own people fighting the war. Instead, you'd send a cheap, alternative munition that is perfectly suited for causing deep despair and destruction again soft, entrenched targets, by maximizing blast radius, increasing projectile distribution and ensuring mass casualties. Given Russia's poor medical capabilities in the war, you don't need cluster munitions to kill entrenched soldiers instantly. All you need is for them to be badly injured and mamed. It not only removes them from combat, but their own forces are likely to leave them there to die, which will deeply decrease the morale among the other soldiers.

 

[GoatsMilk]

The flanks of Bakhmut are slowly falling under Ukrainian control. It's going to be absolute hell for the Russians inside the city itself (as it was for the Ukrainians previously). Especially when Ukraine starts using cluster munitions, JDAMS and M31 GMLRS shells on the city. It took Russia 8 months and tens of thousands of lives to take the city and they're likely going to surrender it back to Ukraine in half that time, inflicting a fraction of the casualties on the Ukrainians. Russia has also lost dozens of pieces of their best artillery in the region over the last 4-6 weeks. It's been an absolute turkey shoot, using counter battery RADAR and HIMARS in combination.

I never feel bad for the Russian soldiers, but I ALMOST do in this case. Bakhmut is going to be hell for them to hold. Especially with so much of the city already destroyed during their offensive. Many of the conventional forces that were sent there to rotate Wagner out, will never leave the city alive. Berkhivka will fall to the north and Klishchiivka will fall to the south as Ukraine continues on to Opytne. The Russians will be sitting ducks and their command is unlikely to allow them to retreat due to the optics of losing Bakhmut so quickly after paying a devestating toll to take it. They'll be forced to bleed out as they become starved of ammunition and resources.

The Wagner goblin in an interview before he took his goons to moscow was asked about whether he sees the Russian army holding onto bakhmut. He said without holding onto the gardens surrounding the city its pretty much certain that Ukraine would retake it. His predication basically stated unless a total nation wide mobilsation for war its guaranteed that ukraine will keep liberating more and more land.

Ukraine Has Caught Up With Russia’s Tank Numbers, Data Signal​

• New figures from Kiel Institute put tank deliveries at 471
• Russia’s fleet halves, but Kyiv needs more than parity to win

View attachment 59022
“Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” Radakin told the legislature’s defense committee. “Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year.”

yep the longer the war has gone on the material balance has shifted. When the next significant weapons come like F16's and longer ranger guided rocket artillery, things will continue to get worse for Russia.

Ukraine is better armed today then they were at the start of the war while Russia is worse off today then when they started the war. Russian options are some cheap low tech drones from Iran. Ukraines options are whatever the west decides to send to them.