Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[UkroTurk]

Ukrainian UAVs / USVs are active

Russian Defense Ministry:
tonight over the territory of the Kaluga and Moscow regions, as well as the city of Sevastopol, attempts by Ukraine to carry out attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles were thwarted. Two UAVs flying in the direction of the city of Moscow were destroyed by air defense systems in the sky over the Maloyaroslavsky district of the Kaluga region and over the territory of the Odintsovo district of the Moscow region. Near the city of Sevastopol, two UAVs were hit by on-duty air defense systems, another 9 were suppressed by electronic warfare and, having not reached the target, crashed in the Black Sea. As a result of the attacks, there were no casualties or damage.


The Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, reported the details of the night attack on the city: that night, our fleet, in cooperation with air defense forces, repelled an attack by USVs over the sea on approach to Sevastopol. 9 UAVs were jammed by electronic warfare, and another 2 were shot down by air defense.

 

[Relic]

Despite enormous attempts by Russian propaganda to paint the Russian economy as performing well, the Ruble has crashed to between 97-98 to $1 USD. The Ruble has lost 13% of its value since late June alone. Russia's trade surplus is falling substantially quarter after quarter and the Russian Central Bank is has enacted a plan to stop purchasing foreign currency, in order to stabilize the economy. Meanwhile, at a time that Russia needs to significantly increase how much they spend on the war in Ukraine if they hope to achieve any significant success, a combination of sanctions and boycott of any Russian materials by many countries, is causing real strain back at home.

It's vitally important that the West and it's allies continue to as little business with Russia as possible, choke as many of their industries as possible and continue to socially pressure Western companies that continue to do business in Russia.

I would like to sanctions increase to the point that USA and Europe start cutting off critical supplies to Russia, such as medicine and medical equipment to support their medical system. Surely, they'll seek replacement products elsewhere in places such as China, but, obviously, transitions often aren't very smooth and a significant disruption to the Russian healthcare system, cutting off critical supplies to Russian citizens who might die or face a substantial degradation in their quality of life without them, will put even greater pressure on a Kremlin that is looking for any and every way of getting out if this war without looking weak.

 

[Bogeyman]

Biden Seeks $24 Billion More for Ukraine in Test of Bipartisan Support​

President Biden appealed to Congress on Thursday for an additional $24 billion to help Ukraine defeat Russia’s invasion, setting up a major test of whether the expansive war effort retains the bipartisan support it has enjoyed since Moscow sent troops across the border nearly 18 months ago.
The request, part of a larger $40 billion spending package that would also pay for disaster relief and border enforcement, is the first time Mr. Biden has asked lawmakers to send more arms to Ukraine since Republicans took over the House in January promising not to “write a blank check” for the war.
The spending package comes as polls have detected growing weariness over the war among an American public focused on problems at home. Allied leaders in Europe and elsewhere are watching nervously to see if the United States will pull back from its leadership of the international coalition backing Ukraine, while analysts say that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is gambling that he can wait out the West.
Mr. Biden has made his support for Ukraine a signature of his foreign policy, arguing that it is vital to American national security to stand up to naked aggression in Europe. American weapons have been critical to Ukraine’s success in resisting Russian forces. But former President Donald J. Trump, who has praised Mr. Putin’s aggression as “genius” and refused to express support for a Ukrainian victory, could make the war a central issue in next year’s election.

“The president has reaffirmed that we will stand with Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty for as long as it takes, a strategy that has successfully united our allies and partners and equipped Ukraine to defend itself against Russian aggression,” Shalanda D. Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, wrote in a letter to Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California.
Mr. McCarthy said in June that any supplemental appropriation request for Ukraine was “not going anywhere” and that additional aid would have to be worked out in the regular congressional spending process. Seventy House Republicans voted last month to cut off aid to Ukraine altogether.

Although that indicates that a bipartisan majority remains in the full House, it was unclear if Mr. McCarthy would defy such a large and vocal segment of his conference to enable the package to get to the floor intact. Mr. McCarthy offered no immediate response to the president’s proposal on Thursday.
The request includes $13.1 billion for military aid to Ukraine and replenishment of Pentagon weapons stocks used for the war effort. An additional $8.5 billion would go for economic, humanitarian and other assistance to Ukraine and other countries affected by the war, and $2.3 billion would be used to leverage more aid from other donors through the World Bank.
Congress has already approved $113 billion in military, economic, humanitarian and other aid for Ukraine, including around $70 billion for war fighting. Of that total, around 90 percent has already been spent or is already designated to be spent. The United States is by far the largest donor to Ukraine, a point of contention for some critics, although the Council on Foreign Relations has calculated that based on share of economy, it is the 12th largest backer of Ukraine, behind Britain, Poland, Norway and others.

​

Some conservative critics of Ukraine aid vowed to press Republicans to draw a line. The Heritage Foundation, which has been a leading voice on the right criticizing American help for Ukraine, issued a statement on Thursday insisting that no more money be allocated unless the Biden administration does more to account for what has been spent and articulates “a plan that defines the end goal.”

Dan Caldwell, the vice president of the Center for Renewing America, a right-wing think tank influential among House Republicans and Freedom Caucus members, said Mr. McCarthy should keep his promise not to approve more aid. “Congress should not spend billions more in support of continuing a war in which there are no vital American interests at stake and where there remains a real risk of nuclear escalation,” Mr. Caldwell said.
Some Freedom Caucus members and their allies quickly responded in kind. “No,” Representative Chip Roy, Republican of Texas and the caucus’s policy director, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “This should be a non-starter for the @HouseGOP. It’s time to stand up for Americans and against the uniparty.”
Supporters of Ukraine said the debate over the spending package could be a critical juncture in the war, sending a message to the Kremlin about American fortitude.
“The only way Putin can win this war now is for the United States to stop helping Ukraine,” former Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey, said in an interview. “McCarthy’s going to have to decide whether he wants House Republicans to be blamed for that even though most Republicans in Congress, if given a chance, would vote to keep sending help.”

Mr. Biden sought to sweeten the pot by adding politically popular spending to the Ukraine aid. The supplemental appropriation request includes $12 billion for disaster relief, $4 billion for border security and $60 million for wildland firefighter pay. Democrats cheered money to fight fentanyl trafficking and child labor violations.
But the combined request will challenge the spending limits that Mr. Biden negotiated with Mr. McCarthy in May as part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Just this week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the federal government spent $1.6 trillion more than it took in during the first 10 months of the fiscal year, more than twice the shortfall during the same period a year earlier.
The politics of Ukraine have changed drastically since the invasion in February 2022. With Mr. Trump leading the way, a number of Republican leaders have questioned American involvement in the war.
Mr. Trump has gone so far as to link future security aid to Ukraine to his efforts to tarnish Mr. Biden at home, much as he did while president in actions that got him impeached. At a rally last month, he said Congress should refuse to send any more weapons until the F.B.I., I.R.S. and Justice Department “hand over every scrap of evidence they have on the Biden crime family’s corrupt business dealings” and threatened to sponsor primary challenges to Republicans who resisted.
Other Republican presidential candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Nikki R. Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations, have stood firmly by Ukraine and in some cases criticized Mr. Trump for appeasing Mr. Putin.

Fifty-five percent of Americans now oppose more aid to Ukraine, according to a poll released by CNN last week. The party breakdown is stark — 71 percent of Republicans oppose additional assistance, while 62 percent of Democrats favor it.
The White House consulted with key Republicans in Congress before making its request and is counting on help from Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican minority leader. Mr. McConnell has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine and, unlike Mr. Trump and Mr. McCarthy, has pushed Mr. Biden to do more, not less.
“I look forward to carefully reviewing the administration’s request to make sure it is necessary and appropriate to keep America safe, secure our borders, support our allies and help communities rebuild after disasters,” Mr. McConnell said in response to the spending request.
It remains unclear how much influence Mr. McConnell has over Mr. McCarthy, though. To win the speakership in January after 15 arduous rounds of voting, Mr. McCarthy agreed to install three hard-right conservatives on the House Rules Committee, which determines whether bills get on the floor. Even if Mr. McCarthy reverses himself and agrees to put a Ukraine package on the floor, he would have to enlist one of the conservatives or rely on Democratic votes, which he does not want to do.

Biden Seeks $24 Billion More for Ukraine in Test of Bipartisan Support

The aid request is the first by the president since Republicans took over the House, and some party leaders have expressed opposition to spending more to help Ukraine beat back Russian forces.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Gary]

Other than chips, last year also saw a fair deal of predictions that Russian western made planes would not be able to survive after Airbus and Boeing severed their support.


Here's an indications if that works

 

[FiReFTW]

Despite enormous attempts by Russian propaganda to paint the Russian economy as performing well, the Ruble has crashed to between 97-98 to $1 USD. The Ruble has lost 13% of its value since late June alone. Russia's trade surplus is falling substantially quarter after quarter and the Russian Central Bank is has enacted a plan to stop purchasing foreign currency, in order to stabilize the economy. Meanwhile, at a time that Russia needs to significantly increase how much they spend on the war in Ukraine if they hope to achieve any significant success, a combination of sanctions and boycott of any Russian materials by many countries, is causing real strain back at home.

It's vitally important that the West and it's allies continue to as little business with Russia as possible, choke as many of their industries as possible and continue to socially pressure Western companies that continue to do business in Russia.

I would like to sanctions increase to the point that USA and Europe start cutting off critical supplies to Russia, such as medicine and medical equipment to support their medical system. Surely, they'll seek replacement products elsewhere in places such as China, but, obviously, transitions often aren't very smooth and a significant disruption to the Russian healthcare system, cutting off critical supplies to Russian citizens who might die or face a substantial degradation in their quality of life without them, will put even greater pressure on a Kremlin that is looking for any and every way of getting out if this war without looking weak.

What kind of person are you? Talking about more dead innocent people as something good?

 

[Gary]

He's just being straightforward, this is not a separate case of an individual wanting a society to suffer because of political difference, in fact the West as a whole collective society has perfected the use of using all sorts of method to bring calamity to people, but they do this while wanting to keep the image of being clean. And they do this by promoting many institution using the word 'international' or sounds international (like the IMF, IOC, UN etc) as their tools to make their actions looks legitimate or portray this as a collective action of the world, even thought he world here means USA and Europe most of the time.

If you look at the blockade of Cuba or Iraq, sanctions against NorKo or Iran, you'll see that in the end they know that this will do little to achieve their goal of change (of government), but they're going to do it anyway because in the end they want the people on the other side to suffer, regardless if their original aim would work.

In Iraq, half a million children were dead because of the sanctions imposed by UN security council. We all know that it would take a kinetic action not sanctions to bring about change.

As many as 576,000 Iraqi children may have died since the end of the Persian Gulf war because of economic sanctions imposed by the Security Council, according to two scientists who surveyed the country for the Food and Agriculture Organization.​

Iraq Sanctions Kill Children, U.N. Reports (Published 1995)

www.nytimes.com

In Iran, people are being forced into refugee abroad because the hardships of living is just unbearable while their Mullahs sit happy because its is well known that sanctions will not harm the top leadership anyways.

Sanctions on Iran: 'ordinary people are the target'

Iranian civilians bear the brunt of western-imposed sanctions in terms of medicine and food shortages, and money problems

www.theguardian.com

So when you look at the war in Ukraine, look it from the lens of two powers, not a war between good or evil. This is a war between two blocks, one trying to overturn the world order, the order trying to maintain it. Sort of like a Thucydides trap but Russia isn't a rising power, rather it is a declining power.

Its good that as we move forward, countries are increasingly sanctions proof, and competing blocks are being made. I one day hope there will be a competitor to the United Nations, once Asia gains enough power.

 

[Gary]

He's just being straightforward, this is not a separate case of an individual wanting a society to suffer because of political difference, in fact the West as a whole collective society has perfected the use of using all sorts of method to bring calamity to people, but they do this while wanting to keep the image of being clean. And they do this by promoting many institution using the word 'international' or sounds international (like the IMF, IOC, UN etc) as their tools to make their actions looks legitimate or portray this as a collective action of the world, even thought he world here means USA and Europe most of the time.

If you look at the blockade of Cuba or Iraq, sanctions against NorKo or Iran, you'll see that in the end they know that this will do little to achieve their goal of change (of government), but they're going to do it anyway because in the end they want the people on the other side to suffer, regardless if their original aim would work.

In Iraq, half a million children were dead because of the sanctions imposed by UN security council. We all know that it would take a kinetic action not sanctions to bring about change.

As many as 576,000 Iraqi children may have died since the end of the Persian Gulf war because of economic sanctions imposed by the Security Council, according to two scientists who surveyed the country for the Food and Agriculture Organization.​

Iraq Sanctions Kill Children, U.N. Reports (Published 1995)

www.nytimes.com

In Iran, people are being forced into refugee abroad because the hardships of living is just unbearable while their Mullahs sit happy because its is well known that sanctions will not harm the top leadership anyways.

Sanctions on Iran: 'ordinary people are the target'

Iranian civilians bear the brunt of western-imposed sanctions in terms of medicine and food shortages, and money problems

www.theguardian.com

So when you look at the war in Ukraine, look it from the lens of two powers, not a war between good or evil. This is a war between two blocks, one trying to overturn the world order, the order trying to maintain it. Sort of like a Thucydides trap but Russia isn't a rising power, rather it is a declining power.

Its good that as we move forward, countries are increasingly sanctions proof, and competing blocks are being made. I one day hope there will be a competitor to the United Nations, once Asia gains enough power.

For me this looks contra productive, because this legitimize the West's positions and opinions which must be brought to a full minimal, voting Abstain (Yellow) should be the best course of action.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russian missile strike: a child died in the Carpathian region

August 11, 2023, 13:33



The Russians launched another missile attack on Ukraine

A Russian missile hit a civilian object in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. The doctors were unable to save the child's life.



Russian aggressors launched a missile attack on the Carpathian region, as a result , there are victims. The child died from his wounds. This was announced by the head of the Ivano-Frankivsk OVA Svetlana Onischuk on Friday, August 11.

 

[UkroTurk]

Kh-47 "Kinzhal" missile shot down​

The rocket entered the airspace of Ukraine from the northern direction, heading southwest to the area of the Kolomyia airfield in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.

One Kh-47 missile was destroyed within Kyiv region.

 

[Relic]

He's just being straightforward, this is not a separate case of an individual wanting a society to suffer because of political difference, in fact the West as a whole collective society has perfected the use of using all sorts of method to bring calamity to people, but they do this while wanting to keep the image of being clean. And they do this by promoting many institution using the word 'international' or sounds international (like the IMF, IOC, UN etc) as their tools to make their actions looks legitimate or portray this as a collective action of the world, even thought he world here means USA and Europe most of the time.

If you look at the blockade of Cuba or Iraq, sanctions against NorKo or Iran, you'll see that in the end they know that this will do little to achieve their goal of change (of government), but they're going to do it anyway because in the end they want the people on the other side to suffer, regardless if their original aim would work.

In Iraq, half a million children were dead because of the sanctions imposed by UN security council. We all know that it would take a kinetic action not sanctions to bring about change.

As many as 576,000 Iraqi children may have died since the end of the Persian Gulf war because of economic sanctions imposed by the Security Council, according to two scientists who surveyed the country for the Food and Agriculture Organization.​

Iraq Sanctions Kill Children, U.N. Reports (Published 1995)

www.nytimes.com

In Iran, people are being forced into refugee abroad because the hardships of living is just unbearable while their Mullahs sit happy because its is well known that sanctions will not harm the top leadership anyways.

Sanctions on Iran: 'ordinary people are the target'

Iranian civilians bear the brunt of western-imposed sanctions in terms of medicine and food shortages, and money problems

www.theguardian.com

So when you look at the war in Ukraine, look it from the lens of two powers, not a war between good or evil. This is a war between two blocks, one trying to overturn the world order, the order trying to maintain it. Sort of like a Thucydides trap but Russia isn't a rising power, rather it is a declining power.

Its good that as we move forward, countries are increasingly sanctions proof, and competing blocks are being made. I one day hope there will be a competitor to the United Nations, once Asia gains enough power.

Bingo. It's nothing personal. Russia is the enemy of the West and therefore, so are the citizens that overwhelmingly support the Russian government. However, the harder the sanctions bite and the more destructive they are to the Russian way of life, the faster my tax dollars can stop being spent on keeping Ukrainians safe from Russian aggression and can get back to funding robust social programs that support Canadians at home.

There are 8 billion people in the world. I can't be self-interested in all of them. I choose to care about those people that, generally, share my values. Russians, overwhelmingly, don't. I don't pretend to hold some moral high ground here. I'm self-interested and it's in my best interest for Russia to lose, by any reasonable means neccessary.

 

[UkroTurk]

Turkey stated that without the participation of the Russian side in the negotiation process, there will be no results, - Hürriyet newspaper

The representative of Turkey at the negotiations on the situation in Ukraine, Akif Chagatay Kylych, expressed the opinion that if the Russian Federation is not included in the search for a solution, "there will be neither results nor solutions."

At the same time, according to representatives of Germany, it is incorrect to include the Russian Federation in the negotiation process on this issue.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690031761214881793

 

[Gary]

Bingo. It's nothing personal. Russia is the enemy of the West and therefore, so are the citizens that overwhelmingly support the Russian government. However, the harder the sanctions bite and the more destructive they are to the Russian way of life, the faster my tax dollars can stop being spent on keeping Ukrainians safe from Russian aggression and can get back to funding robust social programs that support Canadians at home.

Point no.1 can't be debated, we both can agree on that. Point no.2 (bolded) is still yet to be determined, because long wars is actually Russia's strength because even if they are to be kicked back to pre war border (yes this include 2014 border) the war will still be waged. And Ukraine will have to again convince their backers to again backfill, fund or whatever you want to call it the war effort.

In short an (actually two) entire country will be forced into war in perpetuality, and because war will be forced in perpetuality, this two country can kiss goodbye to life as normal country, with normal air traffic, normal foreign direct investment, normal economic growth etc.
For Russia this tantrum is the better option rather than leaving Ukraine and accepting defeat, can't say the same for Ukraine because a war ad infinitum meant that whatever they aspire for progress in Euromaidan will be dashed, which btw is Russia's goal.

So yeah tax dollars will likely still have to be spent. If lucky Russia will be a spent nation, if not Ukraine will be Afghanistan 2.0 which at some point will be abandoned. Because no external polity can afford to war and sustain war forever, especially if that war were not directly felt by the populace.

There are 8 billion people in the world. I can't be self-interested in all of them. I choose to care about those people that, generally, share my values. Russians, overwhelmingly, don't. I don't pretend to hold some moral high ground here. I'm self-interested and it's in my best interest for Russia to lose, by any reasonable means neccessary.

There's nothing wrong with that, everyone is self interested, its my mission (with your help) to actually blow this over because I can't stand the facade of people being shocked.

You as a person might not be claiming moral high ground but your country are.

 

[Dmitry]

10 august. The russians attacked the Reikartz hotel, on the territory of which there was a children's camp for kids from 6 to 13 years old. Fortunately, by 18:00 all the children were taken away, so a large number of victims were avoided.
In this hotel, which was called one of the best in Zaporozhye, the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, settled while visiting Zaporozhye. However, the occupiers, justifying terrorism, fantasize about supposedly "foreign mercenaries."
The hotel was also used by a representative of the UN, which has recently advocated the lifting of some sanctions against Russia. Other humanitarian organizations also worked there to help the residents of Zaporozhye.
After the Russian terror, the UN called on the Kremlin to stop non-elected strikes on Ukraine.
As of the morning of August 11, it is known about one dead person and 19 injured as a result of the shelling of Zaporozhye. Among the wounded there are 4 children - 3, 6, 10 and 14 years old.

On the video - the moment of second hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689937239810203648

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689702935863672832

 

[Dmitry]

Here is what Russian propaganda writes about the attack on the Reikartz hotel:

"According to some reports, more than 400 military men lived in the Reikartz Hotel, most of them foreigners. Sources say that 45 NATO mercenaries and military personnel were killed and 70 wounded as a result of the missile attack"

Российский удар по гостинице Reikartz в Запорожье разнес гнездо наемников

Ракетный удар по отелю Reikartz в Запорожье была нанесен накануне ВКС России. В результате удара, которого, похоже, никто не ожидал, были ликвидированы более 45 наемников из Европы и Латинской Америки, еще 70 иностранцев ранены. По словам военного эксперта Юрия Кнутова, ВКС России удалось...

www.mk.ru

 

[Dmitry]

In Ukraine, all regional military commissars will be fired. They will be replaced by the military, who went through the front.

Zelenskyy on decision of Security and Defence Council: All oblast military enlistment officers to be fired

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has commented on the results of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC) meeting concerning the inspection of territorial recruitment and social support centres (TRC), mainly on the decision to dismiss all military enlistment officers.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Dmitry]

russian appointed administration in occupied Zaporizhzhia region training young Ukrainians to use firearms & demine fields. Which constitutes a war crime under the ICC's statute

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687187290022371328

 

[Relic]

Point no.1 can't be debated, we both can agree on that. Point no.2 (bolded) is still yet to be determined, because long wars is actually Russia's strength because even if they are to be kicked back to pre war border (yes this include 2014 border) the war will still be waged. And Ukraine will have to again convince their backers to again backfill, fund or whatever you want to call it the war effort.

In short an (actually two) entire country will be forced into war in perpetuality, and because war will be forced in perpetuality, this two country can kiss goodbye to life as normal country, with normal air traffic, normal foreign direct investment, normal economic growth etc.
For Russia this tantrum is the better option rather than leaving Ukraine and accepting defeat, can't say the same for Ukraine because a war ad infinitum meant that whatever they aspire for progress in Euromaidan will be dashed, which btw is Russia's goal.

So yeah tax dollars will likely still have to be spent. If lucky Russia will be a spent nation, if not Ukraine will be Afghanistan 2.0 which at some point will be abandoned. Because no external polity can afford to war and sustain war forever, especially if that war were not directly felt by the populace.


There's nothing wrong with that, everyone is self interested, its my mission (with your help) to actually blow this over because I can't stand the facade of people being shocked.

You as a person might not be claiming moral high ground but your country are.

Anyone and everyone would expect their respective country (especially politicians) to claim the moral high ground in a conflict. Russian politicians are doing it to justify to their populace their war effort and western politicians are doing it to justify funding Ukraine's defense to their respective populaces. Nothing gets more support for the spending of insane amounts of money than the idea of unjustice.

As for Russia's ability to fight a long war, I'm not so sure about that. Their economy looks solid in terms of basic numbers, but I research this stuff quite a bit and I've been trying to tell people, there are major cracks forming in the foundation of Russia's fiscal situation.

1. Their trade surplus is shrinking substantially and will soon hit the levels of deficit, rather than surplus.

2. The Ruble has sank an additional 13% in a short period is now trading in the 97-98 to 1 range vs the U.S. dollar, meaning that their international buying power is consistently shrinking.

3. We're starting to see key companies pull out of Russia, which is going to make the cost of doing business extremely high. For example, Microsoft, probably the world's most imporant tech and computing company, has announced that as of September 30th, they'll no longer do business in Russia. Transitions to new cloud and computing services are going to be difficult to Russia.

4. The Russian Central Bank is suspending the purchase of foreign currency for the remainder of 2023 as they try to prop the Ruble up and fight inflationary risks.

5. Remember that the West has frozen more than $300 Billion USD worth of Russian assets. While it would be an extreme step, the decision could be made to simply liquidate those assets and fund the war in near perpetuity with a $300 Billion USD war chest that Russia will struggle to match.

6. Keep in mind that Russia has been able to keep military spending reasonable, largely due to their enormous stockpile of weapons and ammunition from the Soviet period. As that stockpile quickly diminishes, the cost to replace those items goes up dramatically. We could see Russian war spending jump from the $75 Billion USD range per year, to twice that, as they try to keep up with the West's production capacity.

The West clearly won't fund this war forever, but if they're willing to fund it for another 18-24 months (which would be in their best interest), I promise you that we're going to see Russia really struggle financially and from military supply shortages. Ukraine must continue to spend $20-$30 Billion per year on their war effort, supported with $100-$150 Billion per year from the collective west. If that process takes place, the Russian Army is going to be devastated and will struggle to keep up.

 

[Gary]

Anyone and everyone would expect their respective country (especially politicians) to claim the moral high ground in a conflict. Russian politicians are doing it to justify to their populace their war effort and western politicians are doing it to justify funding Ukraine's defense to their respective populaces.

What you say couldn't be more true, however the war is only in its second year and there's already faltering supports from the states regarding support.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html

This isn't the first time, the idea of confronting evil is as old as histroy itself, in Viet Nam, families would listen to TVs when the President made an important statements about progress in Viet Nam against the commies, fast forward into Tet, everyone is rethinking why they were there in the first place.

In Afghanistan, it took just 20 years or less than one generation for the American population to turn 360 from supporting the war right after 9/11 into questioning why were they there in the first place. That means kids and toddlers in the year 2001 would have question why their fathers actually initiate war when they eventually reached adulthood.

In both case (Viet Nam and Afghanistan) American lives are lost that triggers the war, when it comes to Ukraine, not many Americans could fathom the importance because there's yet to be direct American fatalities (other than mercenaries) initiated by Russia.

I'm making the Americans as samples, because really the West for 90% of the time is just the US. If the US suddenly pulled out, the rest will follow suit.

Nothing gets more support for the spending of insane amounts of money than the idea of unjustice.

Spending an insane amount of money is what the coalition did in both Viet Nam and very recently Afghanistan. Thinking that the enemy would succumb just because there's an added decimal to everything. Yet in both case the lesser equipped and lesser financed party wins.

If you think that Russian industry and economy is small and hopeless, wait until you realize just how small the Taliban MIC and budget is compared to the West in its 20 year long war.

As for Russia's ability to fight a long war, I'm not so sure about that. Their economy looks solid in terms of basic numbers, but I research this stuff quite a bit and I've been trying to tell people, there are major cracks forming in the foundation of Russia's fiscal situation.

1. Their trade surplus is shrinking substantially and will soon hit the levels of deficit, rather than surplus.

2. The Ruble has sank an additional 13% in a short period is now trading in the 97-98 to 1 range vs the U.S. dollar, meaning that their international buying power is consistently shrinking.

3. We're starting to see key companies pull out of Russia, which is going to make the cost of doing business extremely high. For example, Microsoft, probably the world's most imporant tech and computing company, has announced that as of September 30th, they'll no longer do business in Russia. Transitions to new cloud and computing services are going to be difficult to Russia.

4. The Russian Central Bank is suspending the purchase of foreign currency for the remainder of 2023 as they try to prop the Ruble up and fight inflationary risks.

5. Remember that the West has frozen more than $300 Billion USD worth of Russian assets. While it would be an extreme step, the decision could be made to simply liquidate those assets and fund the war in near perpetuity with a $300 Billion USD war chest that Russia will struggle to match.

6. Keep in mind that Russia has been able to keep military spending reasonable, largely due to their enormous stockpile of weapons and ammunition from the Soviet period. As that stockpile quickly diminishes, the cost to replace those items goes up dramatically. We could see Russian war spending jump from the $75 Billion USD range per year, to twice that, as they try to keep up with the West's production capacity.

The West clearly won't fund this war forever, but if they're willing to fund it for another 18-24 months (which would be in their best interest), I promise you that we're going to see Russia really struggle financially and from military supply shortages. Ukraine must continue to spend $20-$30 Billion per year on their war effort, supported with $100-$150 Billion per year from the collective west. If that process takes place, the Russian Army is going to be devastated and will struggle to keep up.

Russia is in a war economy, things are no longer seen in trade deficit, GDP growth lens, rather its the ability to mobilize the nations resource and industrial capability to continuously wage war. The usual way of moneymaking by arms enterprise has stopped and the state now has somewhat a monoploy on what the industry should produce.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681151526939574272

Till now all predictions regarding Russia's industrial might has been that of an under-estimation, from aircraft production, chips, tanks etc. While in fact, despite the strain, Russian MIC is somewhat able to circumvent sanctions, bottlenecks and actually expand.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688580080581177344

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687710412496613376

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690308306936434688