Ukraine wins war with Russia, but it won't be over by Christmas - The Times
Ukrainians have the initiative and by any significant measure win
There is a growing realization in Ukraine and the West that they need to start working in a new, longer time frame
Restrained pessimism
The Ukrainians admit that the counter-offensive allegedly did not go according to plan, and they did not achieve the progress they hoped for or expected. But this does not mean that the counteroffensive failed, since the territory was liberated, and the Russian forces were seriously degraded. There's still a couple of months left for Ukraine to make a breakthrough before the fall-winter storm really starts to make things difficult.
Yet the prospects for a major breakthrough on the southern front that would split Russian forces in two and isolate Crimea, while by no means impossible, are diminishing, writes The Times.
Slow advance
The Russians are well entrenched, and their defenses have so far slowed down or repelled Ukrainian attacks, which were often carried out by relatively small formations because the larger ones are too vulnerable to Russian artillery and helicopters. This indicates successful adaptation to the combat situation, but also makes it difficult to achieve decisive success.
Artillery warfare is still decisive. Overall, Russians still shoot more, but Ukrainians now have better weapons: Kremlin forces have to adjust to an unfamiliar experience of outgunned superiority and range. Thanks to their new shipments of cluster munitions and such powerful weapons as the British AS-90 self-propelled gun and M777 howitzer, the Ukrainians are gradually winning the counter-battery fight. They also wear out gun barrels faster than they can replace them.
Growing disappointments
Meanwhile, mutual accusations began. Ukraine's dissatisfaction was caused by Germany's statements that the lack of progress is due to the fact that it was unable to apply Western lessons. Although the Armed Forces of Ukraine could hardly apply Western doctrine based on fire superiority and air superiority when it had neither, The Times notes.
One Ukrainian official accused NATO of "lack of will... that almost rewarded Putin for his aggression." However, the main reaction was disappointment, which led to an escalation of drone strikes and sabotage raids on Russian territory. Last week there were several such attacks on Moscow. The British diplomat expressed concern that "this could play into Putin's hands by giving him arguments in favor of eternal war."
No prospects for the peace
There is currently no hope for the world. The problem is that neither side is ready for meaningful negotiations.
Another year
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is overheating. While Moscow has managed to bypass some production bottlenecks, including the domestic production of Iranian kamikaze drones, it cannot bring back shattered weapons production systems even close to the rate at which they are being destroyed.
In addition, President Putin is still hesitating about another mobilization of reservists. The military wanted it to start already, but ahead of next month's regional elections, Kremlin political managers appear to have persuaded him to delay the unpopular and disruptive move until winter. This will shorten their training time before the start of the next election season, but for the time being Putin is more concerned about the risks to his position at home.
The Times notes that everything depends on the ability of the Ukrainians to fight in the long term. Bearing in mind there are signs of alleged war weariness as it becomes increasingly difficult to recruit or conscript soldiers, as well as the willingness of the West to support Ukraine.
“The outlook for Kiev still looks better, but anyone who hoped or expected the war to end this year is likely to be disappointed. On the contrary, it is time for all parties concerned to think more seriously about their long-term war plans, which may finally create conditions for thinking about some kind of world," sums up the British edition.
