Thirty year bills to pay
So, the devaluation of the ruble happened, the discount rate of the Central Bank was immediately raised to 12% per annum. Well, now we have guaranteed darkness ahead. The consequences of falling into the quagmire of a protracted war, and the economic debilizm of both the 90s, and the subsequent "spirit scraping". No, this is not only a fee for the SMO curve, take it higher ...
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Now a double trap is inevitable: due to the depreciation of the ruble, imports will rise in price, without which the Russian Federation cannot do (there is too little of its own!) Literally all prices will swell. At the same time, the rise in the cost of credit will stifle attempts to produce and replace imports. A spiral of recession and impoverishment is now inevitable. And these are the consequences of the fact that the war could not be ended with a blitz, a lightning victory. What Maksim Kalashnikov always spoke about. The war has only one logic: to win as quickly as possible, with a minimum of blood, destruction and costs. In all eras and in all nations. A long war is an absolute evil.
But not for the collective idiot of the Brezhnev era, which is the establishment of the Russian Federation. I hear from a crowd of idiots-"analysts" (repeating propagandistic apeche tsidulki): the war with Ukraine is not the main thing. We, de, are fighting at the level of civilizations with the Anglo-Saxons. We're blowing the dollar bubble. Therefore, crazy Kalashnikov, a long war is very beneficial for us. It causes a crisis in the West, rebuilds world economic relations, floods Europe with refugees from Ukraine. And in general, the authorities have complete information, and you do not. The government counts ten moves ahead and has a cunning plan...
Well, what, you maneuvered to the end? So far, you are successfully blowing away the Russian Federation and breaking it apart, not being able to show an alternative to the West: neither in scientific and technological, nor in economic and industrial, nor in a public organization, nor in terms of a fair trial and protection of the rights of a citizen, and in the cultural and ideological sphere. Kingdom of "United Russia" you have an alternative, or what? So anyone will shy away from her.
There was a hit in the classic trap of a protracted war of starvation. So, huge ruble masses are spent on the maintenance of troops and salaries for those who make weapons and ammunition. As well as the production of the actual weapons. That is, there are more and more rubles on hand. But where should they be spent? Russia is so deindustrialized that it depends on imports. Warriors and workers of the military-industrial complex receiving 200 thousand rubles (I simplify the situation) where to spend their salaries? Sorry, but they don't buy shells and armored cars. They need a lot of consumer goods. And they are imported. Or are made using imported components. They are purchased for hard currency, for dollars and euros. Not on the mythical purchasing power parity in the conditions of the Russian Federation, not on the yuan and rupee - on the money of the hostile West. It is impossible to replace all this with our own production: time was lost, personnel were not trained, and loans for expanding production are unsustainable.
How to get out of this situation? Win fast. I don't see the point in making any other recommendations. I have been doing this since the 90s, but the authorities heard only themselves. Now let her think for herself. She has all the information and, as I am told, she takes ten steps ahead. Let him count now. Both in the economy and in military operations. The nobles of the present have such palaces and salaries-bonuses that we never dreamed of. Now one dignitary costs the country's economy more than a full-staff ministry in the USSR. Let them now in their halls and think.
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The current failure of the ruble, the oppression of production and the growth of poverty are the fruits of idiocy since the dismemberment of the USSR. In the 90s, cannibals-"reformers" massively destroyed domestic production, tightly planting the Russian Federation on a raw stake. Nothing needs to be produced, enterprises should not be modernized, but closed so that the cost is not deducted from raw materials. Imports are everything. A cadre of engineers and workers? Yes nah not needed. (The Chinese in the same years were doing exactly the opposite). Someone has been responsible for these crimes since 2000, with the advent of VVP (Putin) and the era of "getting up from your knees"? No, nobody. These creatures even continued to steer the economy, they erected a monument to Gaidar, Chubais became "a nobleman in case." In favor.
And then what? The Russian Federation was overflowing with oil and gas revenues. Until 2014. There were no sanctions. The ideal situation is to spend super-revenues on raw materials to buy the necessary technologies and equipment, produce your own, introducing protectionism. Let enterprises lease equipment. It was clear to a hedgehog that it was necessary to revive their microelectronics, machine tool building, a range of engineering industries, etc. It was necessary to spend raw material profits on personnel training, on demography, on providing people with housing, on subsidies to manufacturers, on education and training.
But instead, where were the oil and gas trillions spent? To bring them back across the cordon. On shock construction of luxurious palaces and yachts for the "nobility". For the Olympics and football. For the deadening of money in “reserves”, which are not needed for hell and, as a result, were taken from the Russian Federation by the West. And instead of buying equipment, trillions went to pure consumption: instead of machine tools and technologies (as under Stalin), crazy money was spent on the purchase of millions of foreign cars and tons of imported consumer goods. Tried M.K. shout, warning how this feast will end during the plague? Tried? Hordes of idiots answered me: "But the people did not live as well as they do now!"
Well, did you live well, devouring the future of the country? Now both children and grandchildren will pay for these cars. And poverty, and hopelessness of life. Have you been buying imported goods with loans since 2004? Well, enjoy. And always pay your debts. Not being able to make good money.
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With the Munich speech in 2007, the struggle began with NATO and for a multipolar world, pumping trillions into the army and the military-industrial complex. Remember how I then (like my friends) grabbed my head? Well, you can’t make the economy double-humped, consisting only of the extraction of raw materials and the riveting of weapons! For it is guaranteed to lead to disaster. For one tank, you need to produce a dozen complex products of the civilian sector. Combines, tractors, machining centers. In parallel with guns, you need to make your own electronics, medicinal substances, devices, medical equipment, clothes and shoes, bearings, motors, hydraulics and transmissions, etc. To depend on imports as little as possible, to give jobs (and life prospects!) to our people as much as possible, so that military-industrial complex enterprises earn money not only on government orders.
What did I hear in response? “Yes, you are crazy! In FIG us cheap loans to the real sector? They will only drive up inflation. And our inept people - they will not replace imports, they will be expensive and of poor quality. And finally it’s not profitable for us to make our own electronics, the market is too small ... ".
Well, who was right? Now everything went sideways - with tears, pain and blood. Because, as it turned out, the weapons were made with the widest use of enemy electronics and components. This is not counting the fact that the release of tank guns was not accompanied by an adequate increase in civilian production. Even since 2014, when we received partial sanctions, it was still possible to do a lot in 8 years. But even the words "new industrialization" the authorities could not pronounce.
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And now comes the payback. Not for the failed SMO, which grew into a meat grinder in the style of the First World War - for everything taken together. For football stadiums and the Olympics instead of plants and factories. For decades, eating up raw material income. For the laziness and theft of the top - and the stupidity of the bottom, rejoicing in the crumbs from the master's table. There is nothing to replace the import. And the ruble is falling. And loans are becoming more expensive, and taxes are unbearable, and there are no qualified personnel to build their own factories.
What's next? Alas, thickening of darkness. Too many years and opportunities missed. I am sure that the West will not get tired of feeding this Russian-Russian slaughter - and will continue to aggravate the economic crisis in the Russian Federation. Knowing full well that the combination of it and the war of exhaustion (together with extremely painful mobilization for the Russian Federation) leads directly to the collapse of the current "vertical". No, it is not grassroots discontent that is dangerous in itself: the tops themselves will lose even relative solidity in the conditions of the economic crisis. The example of Prigozhin's coup is illustrative. I perfectly understand what kind of fight for the Russian Federation is yet to come.
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4433481.html
