Again most of the time this "hope" of Western camps that the Russian economy will collapse has again and again failed to come to fruition.
Over time this sporadic talk about economic collapse just fades and no one is paying attention anymore.
I don't think so, the prerequisite to joining NATO and the EU is Ukraine must be first at peace. War will not end even if the Russians are pushed back all the way to pre 2014 border.
And looking at the pace of advance, this war will outlast either Putin or Biden, and the world by then will be totally different from the world we saw today. Again just a reminder that the similar but smaller-scale Iran-Iraq war lasted for 8 years, the Ukraine-Russia war should last longer especially when you look at the population of the two.
For Russia imo, the best course of action is simply to carry on war until the geopolitical landscape changes and popular support waned in Washington. If anything to be learned from the war of the last century is the U.S will eventually lose interest. So If the West is clinging to its goal to exhaust Russia, then imo Russia must bet on its ability to outlast the Americans in intent. Just like what the Viet Cong and the Taliban did in their respective war with the Americans. Will war be 10 year, 20, 30, 40 ?
This I can agree
The "hope" you keep referencing is simply not true. Russia is taking extreme measures right now to keep liquidity within their system and to stop the Ruble from collapsing even further. The Ruble has lost more than 20% of its value vs the USD. Significant inflation is a real problem right now, especially in rural Russia.
Their stock markets are unusable right now for foreigners, because you can't withdraw any equity from them if you're not Russian. Foreign investment in Russia, especially Western investment is falling off a cliff.
Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors,” the raw-materials magnate said at an economic conference.
Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion.
We’ll be increasing our debt, this is a hopeless situation. We will have to do this because our expenditure side is growing,” deputy finance minister Irina Okladnikova said last month. The plan is to stay within the “safe limit” of 20% of GDP, she added.
Russia is on pace to spend roughly $180 Billion usd on its military this year, after aloting $52 billion usd for this year's military spending. Being $130 billion over budget, for a country with an economy as small of Russia's, is sustainable for a year or maybe even two, but eventually the combination of sanctions and significant overspending are going to cause a need for significant austerity measures in order to continuing to fund the war. That means money will be stripped from their school system, medical system and infrastructure plans, all to fund the war... Those decisions will lead to the slow (and eventually much faster) collapse of Russia as it relates to it's current living conditions.
Finally, an extremely underrated problem Russia is facing is emigration. Since the beginning of the war between 600,000-1,000,000 Russian citizens have fled Russia to avoid being draft eligible, or simply because they disagree with the war. What's important, however, is who is leaving. It's the young and middle aged, working Russians with money. Members of their middle and upper middle class, that form the core of the tax base. Instead, they're spending money abroad, instead of at home in Russia.
Financial problems in Russia are coming. It takes time for things to get really bad, but it always happens slow at first, before making a significant impact that is hard to overcome.
A trickle of Russians leaving became a stream after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022.
www.google.com
Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’
www.wsj.com
A trickle of Russians leaving became a stream after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022.
www.google.com
bulgarianmilitary.com
bmpd-livejournal-com.translate.goog
