Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Su-17 is back

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1723261284076953629

 

[Ecderha]

Su-17 is back

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1723261284076953629

Ukraine army bringing F-16 on battlefield
and ruzzian Su-17

perfect!
I guess it is according to putin plan right?

 

[Gary]

Ukraine army bringing F-16 on battlefield
and ruzzian Su-17

perfect!
I guess it is according to putin plan right?

It's actually Ukrainian Su-17. The main strike bomber of the Russian air force remains the Su-34 and Su-34NVO

Looks like Ukraine is running out of available Su-24.

 

[Gary]

122mm Grad munitions from North Korea

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1723782729186038208

 

[MaciekRS]

Su-17 is back

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1723261284076953629

I dont think its true.
Of course Poland will gladly offer that old junk but Ukraine didnt want it, and who will actually be able to fly it? They dont have pilot for that planes.

 

[Spitfire9]

Despite all the noise about the West giving up on Ukraine, financial support not only continues, it will ramp up in 2024. Mark my words. Ukraine will have a $150 Billion+ dollar war chest in 2024. The materials that will yield is more than enough to ensure Ukraine's continued existence and will continue to decimate Russia's Soviet stockpile, which it's burning through at an alarming pace, as evidenced by its need to rely on North Korea for artillery rounds to maintain it's artillery capabilities in the war.

Why do you think that Ukraine will have such a large war chest in 2024? I think the EU has committed around $60 billion but that is over a number of years. What the US will provide in 2024 is not clear. Having said that the GDP of the US, Canada, EU and UK combined is much larger than the GDP of Russia, Iran, North Korea and other allies combined. 10 or 20 times larger or more, I think. Ukraine's allies could easily provide far more than $150 billion a year in military assistance if they chose to do that.

In the long term, if Ukraine's allies choose to crush Russia's invasion of Ukraine they can do that. I say in the long term because even if they took that decision today it would take years to ramp up weapons production to a level that gave Ukraine an overwhelmingly decisive military advantage.

 

[Gary]

=

I dont think its true.
Of course Poland will gladly offer that old junk but Ukraine didnt want it, and who will actually be able to fly it? They dont have pilot for that planes.

A man with Ukraine military camo inside the Video, so

The CAS options for Ukraine r8 now is :

-More SU-24 from storage (which is increasingly rare)
-More Su-25 from storage and foreign donations, because I don't think Georgia (another Su-25 builder) would sell them
-Su-17.

Either way no easy choice

 

[Gary]

The average retention of the Ukraine foreign legion is 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721772370535256444

 

[Relic]

Why do you think that Ukraine will have such a large war chest in 2024? I think the EU has committed around $60 billion but that is over a number of years. What the US will provide in 2024 is not clear. Having said that the GDP of the US, Canada, EU and UK combined is much larger than the GDP of Russia, Iran, North Korea and other allies combined. 10 or 20 times larger or more, I think. Ukraine's allies could easily provide far more than $150 billion a year in military assistance if they chose to do that.

In the long term, if Ukraine's allies choose to crush Russia's invasion of Ukraine they can do that. I say in the long term because even if they took that decision today it would take years to ramp up weapons production to a level that gave Ukraine an overwhelmingly decisive military advantage.

Ukraine has already committed $42 Billion usd towards the war for 2024, a 40% increase on what they spent in 2023. USA will, eventually pass the $61 Billion usd that Biden is looking for. Germany has committed an additional 8 Billion Euros for 2024. Canada will at least match this year's contribution of around $7 Billion in donation / loans. The remainder of the EU + UK will account for more than $20 Billion... That doesn't count Australia , South Korea New Zealand , etc. Nor does it account for IMF / World Bank loans, transferred interest from frozen Russian assets, and private donations and fundraising.

Here is the math on how I got to a $150+ Billion usd warchest for 2024.

Ukraine = $42 Billion
USA = $61 Billion
EU (excluding Germany) = $20 Billion
Germany = $8 Billion
Canada = $7 Billion
Britain = $2-3 Billion
Frozen asset interest = $3-4 Billion
All other sources = $5-7 Billion

Total: approx $152 Billion

 

[Relic]

=

A man with Ukraine military camo inside the Video, so

View attachment 62921


The CAS options for Ukraine r8 now is :

-More SU-24 from storage (which is increasingly rare)
-More Su-25 from storage and foreign donations, because I don't think Georgia (another Su-25 builder) would sell them
-Su-17.

Either way no easy choice

Actually, primary CAS for Ukraine right now has come in the form of MI-24 helicopters and FPV drones. Those have been, by far their most consistent CAS platforms as the line of contact.

 

[Relic]

As previously reported, USA bought Gepard anti-aicraft systems from Jordan , for donation to Ukraine. We now know that the USA purchased 60 Gepards, for $118 million usd. These 60 systems will play a huge role in Ukraine's air defense, especially against Shahed drones, which they've proved excellent and cost effective at intercepting. Germany previously donated 52 Gepard systems to Ukraine, which means they'll have 112 total.

What can 60 extra systems mean for Ukraine? As Russia runs increasingly low on cruise / balistic missiles with which they can strike Ukraine, they've relied increasingly on drones waves. Gepard systems specialize at intercepting those drones. Therefore, if you place 5-6 Gepards around a small city, that's 10-12 additional cities that will be largely protected from drone attacks.

The combination of 60+ additional Gepards and the AIM-7 firing FrankenSAM (Buk) systems that USA is transferring to Ukraine in time for the winter, is going to drastically increase Ukraine's air defense capability heading into this winter. It's going to be extremely hard for Russia to make a meaningful difference with cruise missile and drone strikes this winter.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1724043456912179409

 

[Relic]

Expect to hear it come out soon that South Korea is going to send USA another large batch of artillery shells (500 thousand to 1 million) to backfill U.S. stockpiles, so that the U.S. can continue to aggressively ship their own shells to Ukraine. South Korea's constitution does not allow them to ship the shells direct to the battlefield in Ukraine, but by shipping them to USA, it's the perfect "work around".

Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin were both in South Korea in recent days, talking to the South Koreans about what they can do to help the situation in Ukraine, to counter the efforts that the North Koreans are undertaking to support Russia. As we know, South Korea has among the best military industries in the world. If Ukraine can get substantial support from them, by way of USA, that would be a huge addition to thr war effort.

 

[Gary]

Last November I listed LMUR and Lancets as the weapon to go, for operation Sandstorm.

There's something very sexy about sheer mass, simplicity and precision.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1722350481199001747

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine has already committed $42 Billion usd towards the war for 2024, a 40% increase on what they spent in 2023.

Here is the math on how I got to a $150+ Billion usd warchest for 2024.

Ukraine = $42 Billion
USA = $61 Billion
EU (excluding Germany) = $20 Billion
Germany = $8 Billion
Canada = $7 Billion
Britain = $2-3 Billion
Frozen asset interest = $3-4 Billion
All other sources = $5-7 Billion

Total: approx $152 Billion

Got you - you include Ukraine's projected spending.

I am not optimistic that Ukraine will find itself equipped to win this conflict except in the long term, and that with a major turnaround in US thinking. With its main backer wavering over ongoing support, prospects for retrieving much of the fifth of the country occupied by Russia (most of that fifth occupied since 2014, so having fearsome defences built) do not look good to me.

US needs a switch from MAGA to MUFA - Make Ukraine Free Again. What chance of that happening?

 

[Gary]

Mock Ukrainian village , French army training grounds

 

[Relic]

Got you - you include Ukraine's projected spending.

I am not optimistic that Ukraine will find itself equipped to win this conflict except in the long term, and that with a major turnaround in US thinking. With its main backer wavering over ongoing support, prospects for retrieving much of the fifth of the country occupied by Russia (most of that fifth occupied since 2014, so having fearsome defences built) do not look good to me.

US needs a switch from MAGA to MUFA - Make Ukraine Free Again. What chance of that happening?

I am skeptical that Ukraine will regain all lost ground. I just don't think that's very realistic, at least in the short term. They've done an amazing job as is of retaking as much ground as they have, causing such significant Russian retreats last year.

I am going to continue to focus on the West's primary objective in this conflict. The destruction of the Soviet stockpile of weapons left to the Russian Army, in combination with an increasingly well equipped Ukrainian military that will leave this war with Western security guarantees, means that Russia will leave this war with NATO countries and NATO adjacent countries pinned right up to its borders. Not only will Russia's ability to launch a further invasion against a European country be stiffled for a generation due to enormous military losses, but they'll also have limited options for invasion towards the West. Sweden and Finland will both trigger article 5, as would a Baltic state and Romania. Clearly they're not going to attempt to invade Turkey as that's suicide for their military after what we've seen in Ukraine. And they won't be able to risk another shot at the rest of Ukraine because that's likely to come with American, French, British and German security guarantees that would see those nations directly involved in the war... Something Russia wants no part in.

Russia is struggling mightily against Ukraine's tiny economy and the West's old weapons that they're clearing out if wearhouses to make room for new stuff. The Russians want absolutely no part of the best of what NATO has to offer in a head-to-head conflict.

 

[Relic]

Mock Ukrainian village , French army training grounds

The way you differentiate it from a mock Russian village is that you don't see toilets outside, so you know that the dwellings have indoor plumbing.

Almost 2024 and 20% of Russians still go to the bathroom outside... What a sad country.

 

[Afif]

I am skeptical that Ukraine will regain all lost ground. I just don't think that's very realistic, at least in the short term. They've done an amazing job as is of retaking as much ground as they have, causing such significant Russian retreats last year.

I am going to continue to focus on the West's primary objective in this conflict. The destruction of the Soviet stockpile of weapons left to the Russian Army, in combination with an increasingly well equipped Ukrainian military that will leave this war with Western security guarantees,

This so called primary objective of the West is only declared by you. That is not how Western decision makers across the board (from civilians to military leadership) are talking about it.
After reading quite a bit from leading Western security think tanks (articles, papers) and watching their discussions and seminars it is clear that regardless of Ukraine war they see Russia as a serious and credible threat to European security in the medium term.

 

[Gary]

Let's say it's true that the initial objective of the West is to empty Russia's Soviet hardware inheritance, if war doesn't provide any meaningful advance in the years coming and they pull out support, the political ramifications of pulling out in the middle of the war are far greater than emptying Russian military yard.

Russia could replenish those stocks, losing land to Russia means likely losing it forever.