Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

France is quietly refurbishing SCALP-EG cruise missiles and sending them to Ukraine. The refurbishment process takes approximately 3 months, and costs about 25% of the price of producing a new missile. Simultaneously, they are buying back SCALP-EG cruise missiles previously sold to international buyers that are approaching expiration and giving those countries credit to put towards newly produced missiles. No countries were named specifically, however, Morocco and Italy come to mind immediately as a likely candidates for such a program.

This program makes it extremely affordable for France to continue providing a steady, conservative, stream of cruise missiles to Ukraine, complimenting Britain's contribution.

Media: How France organizes the delivery of Scalp missiles to Ukraine - Euromaidan Press

France recycles decommissioned Scalp missiles by refurbishing them inexpensively for transfer to Ukrainian forces combating Russia's invasion.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Relic]

View attachment 67821

This is a genuine issue that is being worked on, but takes time to rectify...

On the M777 front, BAE has restarted a parts line for the M777, with barrels being at the top of the list. They signed an initial $50 million usd contract with the U.S. military for the production of parts and they will start delivering entirely new artillery units in 2025. When an order is announced, I'll post it.

In the meantime, there is another temporary solution being worked on and I think you'll see it announced soon as part of one of USA's Presidential Drawdown Authority packages. USA has more than 300 retired M198 howitzers in storage, with a robust compliment of spare parts. These howitzers are no longer in production, however, they're valued much less than the superior M777, but fire the same 155mm shells in that 30-40km range, depending on barrel and ammunition type. While older, they're still arguably more effective than the D-30 howitzers that Russia and Ukraine both use significant quantities of. Most importantly, USA can provide hundreds of thousands of 155mm HE rounds for the M198, where as it is limited in its procurement of 152mm rounds for the D-30.

The M1A1 Abrams tank is not a good fit for the Ukrainian military right now and never really was. It's a complicated tank, that requires a massive logistical chain. Furthermore, it's far too expensive to simply lose in mass quantities to cheap drones. This isn't a problem unique to Ukraine. It's also why Russia has pulled most T-90s back from the front and assaults using older, cheaper, T-80s, T-72s and T-62s instead. They were getting tired of losing their multi-million dollar tanks to an onslaught of dirt cheap FPV drones and land mines.

USA never wanted to to send the M1A1 Abrams. It doesn't make sense for Ukraine because the American version uses depleted uranium armor that USA refuses to send to the Ukrainians. They simply sent 31 stripped down versions because Germany would not send Leopard tanks unless the USA was on board with sending their tanks as well. The best use of M1A1 Abrams moving forward would be sending them to Poland, in exchange for them sending more of their Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Poland is moving to a fleet of Abrams and K2's anyways, so this makes sense for both Poland and Ukraine if the USA has the political will power to make it happen.

In a world where FVP drones and Lancet drones are taking out Abrams and T-90s virtually just as easy as they are T-64s and T-80s, both sides are using their older inventories and saving the majority of their best weaponry from being destroyed so cheaply and effectively. That's why there is a huge push to send 200'ish Leopard 1A5 MBTs and whatever is left of T-72 MBTs in Europe, as well as to refurbish T-72s and T-64s from Ukrainian storage. Given their respective roles, you get virtually the same capability, with a similar chance of survival, at a much lesser cost.

It's also why USA just announced that they are sending another 1000 multi-variant HMMWVS and 300 additional up-amored MRAPs to Ukraine. Speed and maneuverability has become more important than anything on a battlefield infested by drones. Second to that is survivability of the crew, which modern MRAPs specialize in.

bae restarts part production for m777 - Google Search

 

[Ryder]

What war has proven to me that. Infantry aka soldiers will always be the most vital thing in a war.

Russians are now rotating their troops while Ukraine has no luxury due to casualties. If the Mobilisation quota is not met its really going to be hard to rotate troops.

Russia is now trying to tire the Ukrainians before they think they can strike the blow.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Quality wins in the short term but quantity wins in the long term.

Quantity prolongs the illusion of winning.

 

[Gary]

It's wild in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1788153161489813989

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787791460474974662

 

[Gary]

What war has proven to me that. Infantry aka soldiers will always be the most vital thing in a war.

Russians are now rotating their troops while Ukraine has no luxury due to casualties. If the Mobilisation quota is not met its really going to be hard to rotate troops.

Russia is now trying to tire the Ukrainians before they think they can strike the blow.

After Desert Storm, everyone wants to downsize, to counterweight dwindling mass, countries opted for over engineered and pricy weapons.

Politics wise, everyone thinks that the Americans will intervene anyway and they prep their military accordingly for short contingency that is measured in weeks (before Washington rein in and force a ceasefire)

If you look at U.S's war plan with China. It revolves around the U.S intervening with aircraft carriers and jets from Asia in combat for weeks only and there's no follow up plan what to do after that.

Russia re-introduced high intensity continuous warfare and the West is clearly not ready for that.

Now the West will to have to face long term high intensity warfare against the likes of Russia and China while also sharing resources for low intensity forever war against Islamist groups.

Impossible to win.

 

[blackjack]

https://tass.com/defense/1785563

MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. The Russian Aerospace Forces received a batch of new Su-35S multirole fighters of generation 4++. They were produced by the Gagarin Aircraft Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) said.

"The plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has reached a rhythmical production pace this year. It is the second batch of combat aircraft delivered to the Aerospace Forces. The plant fulfils the commitments in the deliveries of new aircraft and works to create new batches of serial Su-35 and Su-57 jets," UAC CEO Yury Slyusar said.

Su-35S have passed ground and flight trials and flew from Komsomolsk-on-Amur to the deployment airfield.

Su-35S (Flanker-E+ by NATO classification) is a deeply upgraded super maneuverable multirole fighter jet of generation 4++ designed with fifth-generation technologies. It is distinguished by a new digital avionic complex, a new radar with passive phased antenna array and increased number of simultaneously tracked and attacked targets, plasma-ignition engines of increased capacity and controllable vectoring. The engines correspond to fifth-generation power plants as they develop supersonic speed without a boost. Su-35S is a deep upgrade of Su-27. It has a reinforced glider and no frontal horizontal fins and brake flap. Braking at landing is done by turning rudders to different sides.

https://rostec.ru/news/rostekh-postavil-v-voyska-novuyu-partiyu-bmd-4m-i-bmp-3-s-nakidkami/

Kurganmashzavod of the High-Precision Complexes holding has delivered a new batch of military equipment to the Russian Ministry of Defense. These are BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles with additional protection kits, including Nakidka camouflage systems, as well as BMD-4M. Airborne combat vehicles were sent to the troops ahead of schedule.

The company's specialists analyzed the experience of the special military operation and improved the BMP-3. The new batch of "troikas" received standard kits of additional protection, kits of protection of the upper hemisphere, as well as sets of means of reducing visibility - "capes".

The former protect the vehicle from attacks on the side from any angle. The second is from attacks in the upper hemisphere, for example, from shaped charge munitions, which are dropped from copters. The third element of protection is "capes", which reduce the visibility of infantry fighting vehicles. They are made of synthetic thermal insulation and radar-absorbing material. Thanks to this, it is more difficult for the enemy to detect the vehicle using special means, such as a thermal imager.

"Rostec produces a wide range of weapons and military equipment. Among them are modernized BMD-4M airborne combat vehicles and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. Today, Kurganmashzavod sent a new batch of equipment with enhanced protection to the troops. In addition to additional armor, the BMP-3 received "capes" - fireproof blankets that reduce the vehicle's visibility in the thermal and radio spectrum. These solutions have significantly increased the combat survivability of the equipment," said Bekkhan Ozdoev, Industrial Director of the Cluster of Conventional Weapons and Special Chemicals of Rostec State Corporation.

In addition to the new equipment, in April, Kurganmashzavod produced additional protection kits for the BMP-2 ahead of schedule - anti-cumulative grilles and armored screens.

I know we have a decent number of Indonesian users here.

Indonesian ambassador says Su-35 fighter jets contract remains in force

Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares said that around 30% of weapons in service with his country’s armed forces are Russian-made

tass.com

MAKHACHKALA, May 8. /TASS/. Indonesia has never terminated a contract to purchase Su-35 fighter jets from Russia and is waiting for the situation to become "more accomodating" to return to its implementation, Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares told TASS.

"Indeed, at some point Russia and Indonesia signed this treaty. Indonesia has never terminated it, but it was put on hold to avoid certain potential inconveniences," he said.

The ambassador added that Indonesia will return to this question when the situation becomes "more accommodating."

In his estimates, around 30% of weapons in service with his country’s armed forces are Russian-made.

 

[Relic]

There has been a lot of misinformation and a lack of clarity surrounding what's happening in witht the Czech led initiative to procure at least 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine, to be delivered in 2024.

Here is an update. Today Czech President Petr Pavel announced that the first 180,000 shells purchased by the initiative will in fact arrive in Ukraine during the month of June. He did also state, however, that an undisclosed portion of the remaining 620,000 shells is being held up by what he called "Russian Countermeasures". For those following where the shells are being procured from, South Africa is one of the key suppliers, along with South Korea and several other countries. South Africa is a member of BRICS and ally of Russia in many ways. It's likely that the Russians are pressuring the South Africans to stop them from providing shells for the initiative. If that is indeed the case, shells will continue to flow in from South Korea and possibly Turkey , among other countries, but the South African shells might no longer be in the picture.

MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image 🇨🇿 Petr Pavel: "The first 180,000 artillery shells for Ukraine will be delivered in June." 🤔 He also admits that the Czech initiative is not moving as quickly as he would like. This is due to the factors of Russian countermeasures, since the initiative was open to the public.

mastodon.social

 

[blackjack]

parade starts in 2 hours and 15 minutes

 

[Gary]

I know we have a decent number of Indonesian users here.

Indonesian ambassador says Su-35 fighter jets contract remains in force

Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares said that around 30% of weapons in service with his country’s armed forces are Russian-made

tass.com

MAKHACHKALA, May 8. /TASS/. Indonesia has never terminated a contract to purchase Su-35 fighter jets from Russia and is waiting for the situation to become "more accomodating" to return to its implementation, Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares told TASS.

"Indeed, at some point Russia and Indonesia signed this treaty. Indonesia has never terminated it, but it was put on hold to avoid certain potential inconveniences," he said.

The ambassador added that Indonesia will return to this question when the situation becomes "more accommodating."

In his estimates, around 30% of weapons in service with his country’s armed forces are Russian-made.

I think this is just posturing from our side to get a better deal for the ongoing F-15EX/ID Eagle II. The price tag for 24 of those birds is equal the amount of budget allocated for the entire military. Indonesian defense circles have pretty much given up on the SU-35 long ago.

If we wait for the situation to improve, that means we're talking about the West winning over Russia, Putin being brought down from power and Russia leaving Ukraine unconditionally...and then CAATSA will be irrelevant, everything will be business as usual. This is an illogical prospect considering the situation in Ukraine

It's the CAATSA that deter us (and Egypt) from buying (and in the case of Egypt, accepting) Su-35.


=====================================================

Talking about Su-35, UAC has delivered 2 Su-35 recently.

 

[Relic]

Germany has agreed to buy 3 M142 HIMARS from USA existing inventories, for transfer to Ukraine.

This makes complete sense given that it has been visually confirmed that Russia has destroyed / severely damaged 3 of Ukraine's M142 HIMARS units. This transfer will bring Ukraine back to a full complement of 39 HIMARS systems and 25 M270 systems, both of which fire GMLRS, with the HIMARS firing ATACMS as well.

These types of transfers are important. Not only does Ukraine need new types of equipment regularly, they also need replenishment of their best existing equipment and HIMARS have been a fantastic weapon for them throughout the conflict.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1788621069886075170

 

[Gary]

Perhaps this can explain our dear Gary inexplicable love for Russia
If this assumption is correct, then our colleague does not seem to have read the history of the civil war in your country.

There is no proof that I simp for Russia.

 

[Gary]

Russia liberated a village in Kharkiv oblast, marking the re-entry of the Russian army into Kharkiv oblast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1788844237171101826

 

[Agha Sher]

Several villages (5-6) captured already during the Kharkov offensive (confirmed by both sides). Seems like they broke through the Ukrainian lines.

Russia will leave this conflict victorious and much more capable to wage modern warfare than when it entered it. The dire situation in the 1st year of the conflict has forced them to develop very precise guided bombs and munitions and they MIC output is crazy.

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian army published an episode of the battle with an attack near the village of Solovevo. The video shows a group of Russian military equipment going on the attack. As a result of the battle, some military equipment was disabled by Ukrainian FPV drones, but the T-90M Proryv tank was not damaged. The video shows the Russian T-90M Proryv tank equipped with additional protection; the tank withstood three hits from FPV drones. The final result of the battle is unknown to us, but the tank’s protection withstood all the blows. This is the first time in combat in Ukraine where a tank withstood an attack by three FPV drones.

 

[UkroTurk]

❗️Zelensky confirmed the beginning of a new offensive of the Russian Federation in the Kharkiv region.

The situation from the Kharkiv direction

❗️ At 5 in the morning there was an attempt to break through the defense line in Kharkiv region, - Ministry of Defense.

As of now, these attacks have been repulsed, battles of varying intensity continue

❗️People are being evacuated from Vovchansk and the outskirts of the city in Kharkiv Oblast, - MBA.

There is a lot of destruction, information about the dead and injured has not yet arrived.

View attachment 67788

❗️ Near the border with Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian Federation is concentrating troops for an offensive, - ISW.

In the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, the Russian Federation gathered about 50,000 soldiers;

Analysts say: the Northern Group of Russian troops will most likely not be able to capture Kharkiv;

At the same time, offensive operations on Kharkiv and Sumy will distract the Defense Forces from more important areas of the front.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Gary]

Now Kyiv will send more and more reinforcement towards the Kharkiv front, possibly even pulling out men from the Donbas front.

I guess we're going to see an accelerated Russian push in the Donbas.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russian forces had pushed 1 km inside the Ukrainian border and were aiming to push the Ukrainian armed forces as far back as 10 km inside Ukraine. Kyiv's forces were trying to hold them back

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-reinforcements-after-russian-forces-attack-kharkiv-region-2024-05-10/

 

[UkroTurk]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing 10 new brigades: some of them will be deployed to protect Kyiv


The critical phase is in these 2 months: Pavlyuk warned that Moscow wants Kyiv, - Economist

The commander of the Ground Forces, Alexander Pavlyuk, said this in an interview with The Economist:

“The defense of Kyiv remains one of our main concerns, no matter how difficult it is in the east. This is the heart of Ukraine, and we know what a key role the defense of the capital will play in the future.”

Ukraine will hold if it gets the arms it needs, says a top general

An interview with Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of Ukraine’s ground forces

www.economist.com

🗣The commander of the special unit of the GUR Kraken commented on a possible attack on the Kharkiv region

Kostyantyn Nemichev clarified the statement in an interview with The Economist.

The authors of the publication talk about two possible scenarios: the first is that the Russians allegedly isolate the city by cutting off the main road to Kyiv. The second - will move 10 km closer, the eastern outskirts of the city will be within the reach of artillery, and the occupiers will "create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod", writes The Economist. Nemichev said that these were not his words, as noted by some Telegram channels.

In that article, a special forces commander said the Russians would likely try to attack the outskirts of Kharkiv again in mid-May, but believed they would not be able to get close to the city. According to him, the Russians can advance several kilometers, but not more than 10 km.
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