Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

I sincerely hope that Ukraine applies the same strategy in attracting former international F-16 pilots to their Air Force in the first year, bolstering their own Cadre of pilots as it grows. The precedent has already been set with the International legion fighting on the ground. There are plenty of experienced, American and European F-16 pilots in their 40s and early 50s that are retired from service in their own country. Pay them $500,000 per year each to attract them to the country. You don't need that many of them. 30 international pilots would only cost $15 million usd per year, and would be all you need to augment Ukraine's F-16 pilot corps until it is up to full strength.

 

[Spitfire9]

What is this? If those plane takeoff from Poland or Romania then they will be legitimate target for Russia.

So far this war has been characterised by the US limiting its military aid and preventing or delaying various European countries supplying US-made military aid to Ukraine. Additionally use of weapons supplied has been limited to use within Ukraine's borders. These constraints, handing Russia a considerable advantage in the conflict, are being partially lifted.

As for your comment that Poland or Romania will become valid targets if AWACS aircraft used over Ukraine are allowed to be refuelled and maintained there, you must think that Belarus has been a valid target since this war started.

 

[Soldier30]

Artillery, bombs and drones have become the main destructive factor in the fighting in Ukraine, some believe that more soldiers are even killed by drones than by small arms fighting. An episode of a battle where four Ukrainian FPV drones tried to attack a group of Russian soldiers. We can say that the soldiers were really lucky; it is not always possible to escape from drone attacks. The location of the shooting has not been announced, the video has been shortened.

 

[Gary]

The consequence

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797086760612028708

 

[Relic]

Good news for Ukraine on the ATACMS front. USA had approximately 2,500 of the missiles in their inventory inventory as of late 2023. That included approximately 1100 of the older M39 variant and 1400 of the newer M48 and M57 variants, with a unitary warhead. Meanwhile, production rates for the missile remain at approximately 500 per year, with 200'ish missiles sold to foreign customers annually and 300 available to be purchased with USAI funding and shipped to Ukraine. Lockheed Martin is producing dozens of the missiles each month, allowing USA to be aggressive with how many they can send Ukraine.

Furthermore, the introduction of PrSMs into the U.S. inventory makes the ATACMS missiles of all variants obsolete for U.S. purposes. The PrSM is a longer range, faster missile, with a better guidance system... But it's introduction is great news for Ukraine because the Ukrainians will gladly use the ATACMs on Russian air defense systems, high priced air defense radars and forward operating airfields, among other targets.

I previously felt that Ukraine might me able to get 100-150 ATACMs in 2024, between those drawn down from American inventories and those purchased directly from Lockheed Martin's assembly line. That said, after thorough reading, I think I was being far too conservative in the number Ukraine could receive this year. I now think they could get as many as 300-350 ATACMS in 2024, with roughly half being the M39 shorter range variant, and the other half, the newly made M57 variant featuring the unitary warhead.

300 ATACMS in a fiscal year is not enough to win a war. Not by a long shot. But add 300 JASSM cruise missiles to be fired from F-16s and now you've created a fairly significant dilemma for the Russians, whose air defense will be stressed to the limit, while targets in Crimea, and the Russian territory bordering Ukraine all become fare game. There are lots of extremely expensive air defense radars, airfields, naval ports, oil refining facilities, etc, that come into play if Ukraine knows the ATACMS (and eventually the JASSMS) are going to keep flowing in, dozens at a time.

 

[Samba]

Is Iskander-M unstoppable?

 

[Gary]

Urban fighting in Vovchansk, Russian storm troop kicked a grenade that the Ukrainians thrown from above whilst liberating a house. Very good reflexes.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1796973328533471439

 

[Gary]

This guy consumes at least 1/5th of Ukraine's daily logistics

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797232047854960786

 

[UkroTurk]

The report from Berlin : "It is quite conceivable that the Patriot systems will now also be used in the Kharkiv area and over Russia. They are ideally suited to combat the Russian aircraft that can use the terrible glide bombs."

Aktuelle Nachrichten aus Deutschland

Überblick zu Hintergründen, Analysen und Interviews bei tagesschau.de - die erste Adresse für Nachrichten und umfassende Berichte zu aktuellen Themen.

www.tagesschau.de

 

[Relic]

Ukraine has now received more than 300 Bradley M2-ODS IFVs from the United States according the the updated official American factsheet that tracks weapons sent to Ukraine from American inventories. The Bradley has become one of the favourite land based platforms of the Ukrainians, most notably of the 47th Brigade that have used them with exceptional effectiveness over the last year. That said, like all weapons in war, Bradley's are far from invincible and they've faced their share of attrition. Oryx notes that Ukraine is visually confirmed to have had 24 of their Bradleys damaged and 58 of them destroyed and / or captured. Assuming Ukraine has been able to repair 50% of the units that were damaged, Ukraine has 215-225 units available in its armed forces. As expected attrition continues over the coming year, the question becomes how many more can the Americans send from their stockpiles, to not only replenish losses, but bolster the fleet so that a second full brigade can be equipped with them?

The Americans have roughly 3700 Bradleys in service with their army. It seems unlikely that those units will be donated. That said, they have an additional 2800 units in storage, from which 700 are being upgraded to the newest standard. That leaves approximately 2100 units that could be used to support Ukraine. Clearly, however, the Americans would not dare exhaust their reserve, so it's important that we be realistic. Having sent roughly 300 units to this point, I suspect they've sent somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 of the units they'd be willing to go without. I fully suspect that on the conservative end 500 units is definitely doable. On the more aggressive end, I could see the Americans sending as many as 700 units before the war reaches it's conclusion, which means we'll see plenty of additional Bradleys transferred yet.

BAE Systems to upgrade more US Army Bradley Fighting Vehicles to A4 standard - European Security & Defence

BAE Systems has received a USD 78 M (EUR 71.44 M) order to upgrade additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the latest M2A4 configuration.

euro-sd.com

 

[MaciekRS]

This time S 300

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797598186145808828

russians are experts in deploying Air Defence close to each other so 1 hit can destroy radar and lauchers.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797637648821166181

 

[Gary]

They wouldn't fight half as ferocious as the AFU we saw in the opening hours of 2022.

So Washington Post has come up with an interesting story from Ukraine and the state of the AFU

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.​

​

Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full-time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs.​

“If they send us to recruit someone, all the good ones have already been taken by other brigades, and you have to choose from the crooked, lame, sick ones,” the sergeant said. “And so you choose from them, dammit.”​

​

Some recruits, the sergeant said, are deemed physically fit despite being over age 50 with knee and back issues, meaning they will struggle to walk miles with a pack of gear and weapons, as is often required. Some brigades are ordered to take those men anyway.​

“There are guys whom you just look in the eye and understand he’s hesitating,” the sergeant said. “He needs a push. He needs confidence in his weapon, confidence that we won’t abandon him, and he will fight.”​

“And there are those who immediately say, ‘I won’t fight,’” ​

​

This is high time for Russia to intensify its attack and kill asl many AFU as possible, their opposition is now mainly made of weaklings, defeatists, and old men. All of which will die in the thousands in very short notice. It also helps that Ukraine is sending these cohort into the killing fields of Vovchansk. Where they'll die getting battered inside under fortified position.

​

“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”​

 

[Gary]

So Washington Post has come up with an interesting story from Ukraine and the state of the AFU

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.​

​

Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full-time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs.​

“If they send us to recruit someone, all the good ones have already been taken by other brigades, and you have to choose from the crooked, lame, sick ones,” the sergeant said. “And so you choose from them, dammit.”​

​

Some recruits, the sergeant said, are deemed physically fit despite being over age 50 with knee and back issues, meaning they will struggle to walk miles with a pack of gear and weapons, as is often required. Some brigades are ordered to take those men anyway.​

“There are guys whom you just look in the eye and understand he’s hesitating,” the sergeant said. “He needs a push. He needs confidence in his weapon, confidence that we won’t abandon him, and he will fight.”​

“And there are those who immediately say, ‘I won’t fight,’” ​

​

This is high time for Russia to intensify its attack and kill asl many AFU as possible, their opposition is now mainly made of weaklings, defeatists, and old men. All of which will die in the thousands in very short notice. It also helps that Ukraine is sending these cohort into the killing fields of Vovchansk. Where they'll die getting battered inside under fortified position.

​

“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”​

From another WaPo piece

The day where we'll see Ukrainians defending their cities/towns/villages using Volkssturm style militia is closer than you might think.

There are simply too much Ukrainians that has been neutralized

 

[mehmed beg]

What is the issue to force someone to the front line?
This is the war not a promenade.
I don't understand why do people make an issue out of it?
It happens all the time anywhere.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797714903446462757

 

[Relic]

The Ukrainians are deploying recon drones into Russia proper. This convoy was traveling through the Kursk region, North of Sumy, when it was demolished by Ukraine's FPV drone operators. The capacity to strike the Russian Army on its own territory, before it has the ability to go on the offensive, is extremely important.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797531178494238733

 

[Gary]

Some advice from the PLA directly to Zelensky

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797687897409347875

 

[mehmed beg]

Oh , good advice from Uygurs concentration camp screw.
But this prison guard knows everything about it, doesn't he?
So , we can give an advice to Indonesia to recognise South China Sea to the fullest.
I always believed, that between the good and evil has some obvious distinctions.

 

[mehmed beg]

Oh I hear that the Zionists Ukrainians did an ambush against the Anti Zionists Russians in Syria.
How remarkable.
Isn't it interesting that Ukrainians didn't kill any Muslims since the Bosnian war ( even then the so called volunteers) yet they ara boogie man.
I think Russians parsipated in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of The Muslims.
Mr Gary am I getting it wrong here or you see the bigger picture.
Even in Sudan, Ukrainians helped the the Zionists government against anti racist Janjaweeds.
No , Ruskies are changing the camp, I guess, all of the sudden the government in Khartum had a catarza.