I agree that Russia improved its capabilities during the war, as combat experience always plays a role. They are now using drones quite successfully and have improved their targeting capabilities.
But the same things are true for the Ukrainians as well. They also have new capabilities, and are now constantly striking inside Russia proper with their domestic produced drones, which didn’t happen in the first year of the war.
For Russia, I see it as a big humiliation that they are in the position where a former colony is able to constantly strike targets on their own territory.
No great power has faced such humiliation after WW2.
- I am Indonesian, if Russia is humiliated, that's their problem.
- The Ukrainians sure does plenty access to the latest Western smart weaponry, but it seems their most important assets, their men, are getting dumber. They just launched an assault into Kursk while having manpower problem in Donbass. Even Tatarigami calls this a mental disability.
- Which makes me think that the AFU is just another ANA
The thing is, Ukraine was 100% under Putin’s thumb when Putin took office in Russia. But during his reign he managed to somehow lose this “most important Russian land outside Russia itself” in the favor of the West.
His grand strategy and geopolitical craft was proven disastrous in the face of the European Union, which peacefully expanded to the East, taking countries that used to be under the Soviet Union’s influence in the past.
Putin didn’t take power two years ago. He didn’t start with a rebelious Ukraine. He lost Ukraine during his leadership, because he was a bad leader. He lost the peace, and thought that he could win the war, but in the end this war will be his downfall and will transform Russia into a thrid grade power, isolated from the global economy and with a pariah status like Iran.
The longer the war drags, the weaker Russia becomes. And don’t forget that Russia could see a similar scenario happening in Belarus as well, since people have seen how Russia treats its “friends”. The average Belarusians would surely prefer to enjoy the freedoms and economic prosperity of the EU, like their Polish neighbors do. It is just a question of time before they find the courage to topple their dictator in another Maidan moment.
Putin comes into power inheriting a broken and dysfunctional country and society. He spent his early years trying to make things up and patch holes as well as getting rid of potential domestic political foe, many of which has allegiance to outside power (The West).
During this time, the former Soviet colony of Poland, Czechia, Romania, Bulgaria, The Baltic Three and many more opted to join NATO. Georgia under Saakhasvilli were close into joining this club, but Putin stopped them at their tracks in 2008. Then in the 2010s, the Maidan erupted.
So its something like this
1999-2000s : Consolidating power, getting rid of oppositions and potential Western mole"
2008 : First blood, war in Georgia
2011 : Declare open support for faraway ally (Syria)
2013 : Maidan erupts, Russia lost it's man in Ukraine
2014 : Russia take over Crimea
2015 : Intervene in Syria
2020 : Prevent the toppling of Lukashenko by Western agitation
2022 : Launch the full scale security operation in Ukraine
As you can see, half of his time is busy dealing with internal opposition and saving his allies, he lose control of Ukraine while busying himself with the internal affairs of the state.
A good statesmen knows that they must go kinetic once certain red lines are crossed and when Kyiv, a long time subordinate of Russia, decided that they want to switch side with the enemy. Crimea is taken away from their hands as warnings.
But it seems that Kyiv didn't get the memo. In 2018, they made it LAW, to be part of NATO, the longtime bitter enemy of Moscow. And the next thing we know, Ukraine lose most of Donbass, while its population flee en masse.
This is not only a good statesmanship by Putin, I consider it excellent. If Yeltsinn is still around, than Ukraine would've join NATO and the EU long time ago, no problem. Now Ukraine is losing, it will be another test of Putin statesmanship to navigate Russia through Western hostility in Ukraine until victory is achieved. Right now, it's bleak for Ukraine, let's see what Putin has in store for the next round.
foreignpolicy.com
