In just 2 years the Russian military are able to deep strike Ukrainian planes in their bases, even though the UkrAF has implemented ACE (Agile Combat Employment) tactics, while its UMPK bombs wreck havoc on Ukrainian lines, even though just 2 years ago, this kind of capability was basically non-existent
I agree that Russia improved its capabilities during the war, as combat experience always plays a role. They are now using drones quite successfully and have improved their targeting capabilities.
But the same things are true for the Ukrainians as well. They also have new capabilities, and are now constantly striking inside Russia proper with their domestic produced drones, which didn’t happen in the first year of the war.
For Russia, I see it as a big humiliation that they are in the position where a former colony is able to constantly strike targets on their own territory.
No great power has faced such humiliation after WW2.
There's no denying that Desert Storm will go into the annals of military history in glory. But that thing is 30+ years ago. There's no guarantee that the Americans could somewhat repeat that kind of overwhelming success, especially in the age of great power competition.
Of course there is no guarantee that they would be able to pull such a success again, but there is also no reason to believe otherwise. So far, the US has been able to strike any target it wanted, whenever it wanted. Their strike capabilities are unmatched.
As for Ukraine, it is the most important Russian land, outside of Russia itself. So if NATO would try to portray this as a loss, it's of no use, because it's worth it to have those 2 enter NATO while liberating Ukraine.
I would consider it dumb, if Putin didn't go with military operation. Because the longer it takes, the more ready Ukraine is and the higher chance that they will integrate more into the West.
The thing is, Ukraine was 100% under Putin’s thumb when Putin took office in Russia. But during his reign he managed to somehow lose this “most important Russian land outside Russia itself” in the favor of the West.
His grand strategy and geopolitical craft was proven disastrous in the face of the European Union, which peacefully expanded to the East, taking countries that used to be under the Soviet Union’s influence in the past.
Putin didn’t take power two years ago. He didn’t start with a rebelious Ukraine. He lost Ukraine during his leadership, because he was a bad leader. He lost the peace, and thought that he could win the war, but in the end this war will be his downfall and will transform Russia into a thrid grade power, isolated from the global economy and with a pariah status like Iran.
The longer the war drags, the weaker Russia becomes. And don’t forget that Russia could see a similar scenario happening in Belarus as well, since people have seen how Russia treats its “friends”. The average Belarusians would surely prefer to enjoy the freedoms and economic prosperity of the EU, like their Polish neighbors do. It is just a question of time before they find the courage to topple their dictator in another Maidan moment.
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