You underestimate the willpower of the Russian people, they would have won this war regardless, only with many more million dead people and Ukraine would be even more exhausted and destroyed, already generations of Ukranian young men are dead, I wonder how their population will grow in the future to be honest.
This was the best case scenario for Ukraine... well... the best case would have been to negotiate a peace after the offensives they did when they held much more Ukranian land but that was long ago, sadly the West blinded by wanting to weaken Russia as much as possible was completely incompetent at preventing what happend in the past months where Ukraine has less and less land and it keeps losing more and more, so in the end they will have even less land available because of this st*pidity.
The facts of the reality on the ground don't support your assessment. We have irrefutable evidence that Russia is burning through it's inventory of armor and artillery at a rate that no country on Earth could possibly replace. Russia's offensive capabilities are not dictated by manpower, they are dictated by it's armored divisions. In modern war you cannot win by simply throwing more people at the problem, as long as the opposition is receiving the resources it needs to negate that manpower advantage. Despite the bellyaching in the media, Ukraine was receiving enough material support that as long as they could stomach losing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in combat, while trading small increments of land for space, time and the destruction of Russian war assets, a day would come where Ukraine stood and Russia's war arsenal was so depleted that Putin would have no choice to negotiate.
The reality, however, is that relied on the U.S. and their uniquely large weapons stockpiles and military industrial complex, for which Russia has no answer outside a few categories (artillery shell production as an example).
I know that I follow the transfer of military aid to Ukraine more than most. I also transfer the loss of that aid in combat more than most. However, I also follow Russia's losses as close as anybody, and make no mistake, the attrition to their armored inventory has been immense and it's not slowing down because they're on the offensive and offensives lead to significant losses. It's simply the nature of war.
With the U.S. stockpile of Bradleys, Strykers, M113s, MRAPS, M109s, M777s, Air Defense Systems and all of it's arms and ammunition slowly becoming unavailable to the Ukrainians, the advantage in quality and availability of equipment will give Russia decisive edge.
Even if Biden does send Ukraine $4 Billion usd worth of American equipment over the next 2.5 months using the remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority available to him, that's only enough armor and artillery for Ukraine to hold on for 4-6 months, which is not long enough for the attrition of Russian Army hardware to start causing the Russian war planners serious concerns as they try to maintain offensives on multiple fronts.
Ukraine only has one chance now. Europe. The $50 Billion usd loan from the G7 will reach Ukraine while Biden is still in office. That money will keep Ukraine in the fight for the majority of 2025. But what the European Union
, Britain
, Canada
, and Australia
are willing to do beyond that will write the final chapter in the outcome of the war. If those countries see the Russian threat to Europe as severe enough, they will come up with the roughly $100 Billion usd Ukraine needs per year to keep exhausting the Russian military. If the political willpower is not there, Ukraine will be forced to capitulate to the negotiating table an accept an agreement (brokered by Trump) that heavily fails Russia and justifies the war effort the Putin's population.
The Trump win won't begin the show major holes in the Ukrainian war effort immediately. It will take time for the American funding to dry up. Biden is likely to send all that he's authorized to over the next 2.5 months, leaving the Ukrainians in the best situation he can as he heads out the door. But unless the likes of the European Union
and their allies come together and decide that this is a war effort worth supporting, including substantial investments (tens of billions of usd) in Ukraine's domestic defense production, slowly this conflict will wind down, with favorable outcome for Russia.
, Germany 
, Sweden 
, Romania 
, Italy 
and the Czech Republic 
have announced major military spending over the last 2 years in response to Russian aggression, but that spending has to increase even more in the wake of the U.S. election. Europe 
announced that they are increasing their defense budget to $53.38 billion usd in 2025, which will represent 26% of their GDP. 
