Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Huelague]

The war will be end soon. Russia will get the conquered areas. Europeans will pay the reconstruction. And BlackRock ()will get the rest of Ukraine. Congratulations to all!

 

[Relic]

I remember hearing at the start of the war the Russians will be out of missiles any day now or any minute now, and still we have western leaders that state they outproduce the EU. In order for the Russians to be out of tanks and IFVs the Ukrainians have to destroy far more Russian equipment than their own, but you failed numerous times to show this. Just like another user here can't refute this.

Forecasts show Russia may overtake Japan in terms of GDP growth by 2030

Andrey Belousov opined that the Russian Central Bank’s key rate would remain at a high level so far, declining to 6-7% by 2027

tass.com

Russia routinely runs low on missiles. That's why they aren't able to consistently saturate Ukraine with missile attacks. If they could, they would. Unfortunately for Russia, most of their production is cruise missiles and Ukraine's air defense (including aerial air defense platforms) has reached the point that most city centers are fairly protected from cruise missiles. The latest volley Russian sent, were overwhelmingly intercepted. Ballistic Missiles are still a challenge because only Patriot and SAMP/T can intercept ballistic missiles among Ukraine's air defense systems and Ukraine only has 9-10 of those systems combined, spread out across the country.

Russia's missile supply got so lo that they had to get them from North Korea to keep up their infrastructure attacks.

Russia's not going to run out of missiles. That was never the actual analysis. The argument was and still is that they would be limited their production, which means that they can't fire nearly as many as they want and certainly not as often as they want. They produce a couple hundred combined cruise and ballistic missiles per month and they use them. That's where we're at.

Russia has the same problem with their armor. They had a ton of it stockpiled, but they're burning through it. Eventually, they'll run out of what they can reasonably pull from storage and restore. In that case, they'll be limited to their new production, which amounts to approximately 200 MBTs and 500 BMPs per year. They are losing their armor at a much quicker pace than that, which means that eventually they will either have to limit operations, or resort to even more substantial meat waves, into the teeth of artillery and the evolving use of drones.

USA now recognizes this. For the first time they sent anti-personnel landmines in a defense package, because they know that Ukraine can litter fields full of them and force Russian infantry to traverse through hell.

 

[Relic]

The war will be end soon. Russia will get the conquered areas. Europeans will pay the reconstruction. And BlackRock ()will get the rest of Ukraine. Congratulations to all!

Hopefully not for a while yet. We need greater destruction of the Soviet stockpile before the war ends. Unfortunately, that will cost a lot of Ukrainian lives, so if they want to negotiate I fully support them...

But I'd rather see the Russian people drown in inflation that will keep them behind the West for decades to come and for their armor to face such attrition that it will take the better part of a generation before they've rebuilt their reserves (if it's even possible). Russia will spend nearly 7% of it's GPD on the war effort in 2025. That's money that is taken from crumbling infrastructure and and over stressed Healthcare system. It's beneficial for that to happen, while they sends tens of thousands of their healthy young people to be killed and mamed. That will speed up the rate of their population decline and leave them with a defined shortage of workers as their population ages, unless they turn to immigration and the degradation of their existing culture.

 

[Spitfire9]

You didn't really answer my question, you seem to be under the impression that Russia just simply won't ever resort to launching nukes even if its just one to make a statement.
So my question remains if moscow started to get attacked by long range missiles or if NATO crossed into Russia with serious intent and started attacking positions etc you think Russia would never resort to nukes?

Long range missile attacks on Moscow: extremely unlikely to provoke a nuclear response IMO. I can imagine Putin thinking about detonating a low yield nuclear device - somewhere where it does no damage, like over the Arctic ocean - as a demonstration that he is prepared to escalate to nuclear but that is almost impossibly unlikely to me.

NATO troops going into Russia: I do not think that would happen. Too risky. I don't see NATO taking a risk like that - poising the world on the brink of nuclear war. If that extremely unlikely scenario did develop, I think Putin would demand NATO leave and give a time limit before he pushed the button. I think NATO would back down.

The NATO question does not really arise to me. I think that Ukraine would be able to survive if the limited backing it has received were massively increased with no limits on weapons use.

GDP of Ukraine + allies: $40 trillion+
GDP of Russia and allies: $4 trillion?

Russia should not win if Ukraine's allies choose to fully back it. Question is: will they change and start doing that or is it too late?

 

[Huelague]

Hopefully not for a while yet. We need greater destruction of the Soviet stockpile before the war ends. Unfortunately, that will cost a lot of Ukrainian lives, so if they want to negotiate I fully support them...

Sayed a non-Ukrainian people. And who is „we“?

 

[Huelague]

Long range missile attacks on Moscow: extremely unlikely to provoke a nuclear response IMO. I can imagine Putin thinking about detonating a low yield nuclear device - somewhere where it does no damage, like over the Arctic ocean - as a demonstration that he is prepared to escalate to nuclear but that is almost impossibly unlikely to me.

NATO troops going into Russia: I do not think that would happen. Too risky. I don't see NATO taking a risk like that - poising the world on the brink of nuclear war. If that extremely unlikely scenario did develop, I think Putin would demand NATO leave and give a time limit before he pushed the button. I think NATO would back down.

The NATO question does not really arise to me. I think that Ukraine would be able to survive if the limited backing it has received were massively increased with no limits on weapons use.

GDP of Ukraine + allies: $40 trillion+
GDP of Russia and allies: $4 trillion?

Russia should not win if Ukraine's allies choose to fully back it. Question is: will they change and start doing that or is it too late?

If you think Russia is alone, you are very wrong.

 

[Spitfire9]

If you think Russia is alone, you are very wrong.

Obviously when I write 'Russia + allies' I do not think Russia is alone.

 

[Huelague]

Obviously when I write 'Russia + allies' I do not think Russia is alone.

Who are that allies which elaborate $4 trillion together with Russia?

 

[Spitfire9]

Who are that allies which elaborate $4 billion together with Russia?

Russia GDP around $2 trillion
Iran GDP around $500 billion
North Korea GDP around $30 billion

Actually, nowhere near $4 trillion. I did not check, just gave a generous number with a question mark. My point is that GDP of Ukraine + allies is vastly greater than GDP of Russia + allies.

 

[blackjack]

Russia routinely runs low on missiles. That's why they aren't able to consistently saturate Ukraine with missile attacks. If they could, they would. Unfortunately for Russia, most of their production is cruise missiles and Ukraine's air defense (including aerial air defense platforms) has reached the point that most city centers are fairly protected from cruise missiles. The latest volley Russian sent, were overwhelmingly intercepted. Ballistic Missiles are still a challenge because only Patriot and SAMP/T can intercept ballistic missiles among Ukraine's air defense systems and Ukraine only has 9-10 of those systems combined, spread out across the country.

Russia's missile supply got so lo that they had to get them from North Korea to keep up their infrastructure attacks.

Russia's not going to run out of missiles. That was never the actual analysis. The argument was and still is that they would be limited their production, which means that they can't fire nearly as many as they want and certainly not as often as they want. They produce a couple hundred combined cruise and ballistic missiles per month and they use them. That's where we're at.

Russia has the same problem with their armor. They had a ton of it stockpiled, but they're burning through it. Eventually, they'll run out of what they can reasonably pull from storage and restore. In that case, they'll be limited to their new production, which amounts to approximately 200 MBTs and 500 BMPs per year. They are losing their armor at a much quicker pace than that, which means that eventually they will either have to limit operations, or resort to even more substantial meat waves, into the teeth of artillery and the evolving use of drones.

USA now recognizes this. For the first time they sent anti-personnel landmines in a defense package, because they know that Ukraine can litter fields full of them and force Russian infantry to traverse through hell.

1. you don't even bother to use your sources of information to gather how much Russian equipment gets destroyed in 24 hours here, but you sure do love to talk about what Ukraine can get instead every day and that is not a good sign either because it indicates Ukraine had their previous shit ordered all destroyed. If you want people here to take you serious give a daily update here for what Ukraine has done in 24 hours against the Russians other than posting reddit and oryx where they don't give timeframes of what they destroyed if they did report it you would make a list here. But you can't do that because I would draw my comparisons in return which would result in the Russians being the ones causing more casualties and destruction than what the Ukrainians can inflict back to the Russians.

2. You make claims that somehow NATO outproduces Russia in military ammunition and equipment by giving contracts, but nowhere does that show what they can produce a month and orders on contracts usually take a long ass time.

So, if Ukraine keeps getting its shit destroyed from what NATO is able to provide for Ukraine far more than Russia. And that Russia still is outproducing what NATO can produce in equipment and ammunition. What do you think that means? I think that you and Zelensky dont know what that means. The meaning is it will draw the Ukrainians to become extinct species where it won't affect the Russians making trade businesses across the world, domestically producing their own shit and continue on with their military production and technology. We don't even know yet if the Europeans will cave in after the war to save their country's energy crisis.

 

[Huelague]

Russia GDP around $2 trillion
Iran GDP around $500 billion
North Korea GDP around $30 billion

Actually, nowhere near $4 trillion. I did not check, just gave a generous number with a question mark. My point is that GDP of Ukraine + allies is vastly greater than GDP of Russia + allies.

Interesting that you don’t mention the most important ally. China.

 

[Spitfire9]

I lost track. Did the EU produce the million shells they said they were going to produce in a year to ship to Ukraine?

Interesting that you don’t mention the most important ally. China.

I thought China was being very careful to avoid getting sanctioned due to involvement with arms supply to Russia. I guess the US must be China's biggest export customer for consumer goods. Mind you, halting that trade would produce a severe inflationary shock to the US so perhaps the US is turning a blind eye?

 

[Spitfire9]

Putin has just said that I am now fair game to be attacked because UK-built Storm Shadows were used to strike Kursk. Perhaps Ukraine should threaten to strike Iran and North Korea because their weapons are used against Ukrainian soil?

I shall now contact my political representative to ask him to urge the UK government to arrange production of more Storm Shadows so that we can send more to Ukraine.

If I may get nuked because Ukraine used Storm Shadow to strike against Russian soil, I would prefer to get nuked for 1,000 Storm Shadow strikes against Russia than just a handful.

PS I live near a military facility

 

[Relic]

Sayed a non-Ukrainian people. And who is „we“?

"We" is the collective West that opposes Russia.

 

[Relic]

New news regarding air defense for Ukraine.

Canada has delivered the NASAMs Air defense battery to Ukraine that it purchased more than a year ago. Canada has also delivered 300 air defense missiles to Ukraine, consisting of a mix of AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles that can be used for NASAMs and FrankenSAM systems.

Spain has sent another HAWK air defense battery to Poland, where it will then be transferred to Ukraine in the coming days. Spain has sent previous HAWK Batteries to Ukraine.

Both NASAMs and HAWK are excellent air defense systems when it comes to shooting down Russian cruise missiles and drones. Neither is meant for the interception of ballistic missiles.

Canada’s donation of new air defence system arrives in Ukraine - Canada.ca

The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, has announced that Canada’s donation of a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) has arrived in Ukraine.

www.canada.ca

Spain delivers HAWK air defense battery to Ukraine, now in Poland

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Lool]

Finally found the video where Lindsay Graham openly admitted that
1- the war in Ukraine was initiated for its resources and not for the ukrainians themselves
2- As Rober Kennedy, whom many said is a conspiracy theorist, said before, Graham admitted that the US will take control pf Ukraine's natural resources as compensation for all the money it gave to Zelensky

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1860609629719331170

 

[MaciekRS]

Finally found the video where Lindsay Graham openly admitted that
1- the war in Ukraine was initiated for its resources and not for the ukrainians themselves

Of course its a was for resources. Russia needs both natural resources and Ukrainian people to try to rebuild Soviet Union.
Thats why they attacked. And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times
1. When russia attacked Georgia
2. When russia take over Crimea and Donbass
Every fail ended up in more escalation, this time I hope we will not fail.

 

[Lool]

Of course its a was for resources. Russia needs both natural resources and Ukrainian people to try to rebuild Soviet Union.
Thats why they attacked. And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times
1. When russia attacked Georgia
2. When russia take over Crimea and Donbass
Every fail ended up in more escalation, this time I hope we will not fail.

For your info, back in 2022 or 2023, a preliminary peace deal was reached between Russia and Ukraine in which Russia will retreat back to the 2014 demarcation line in return Ukraine wont join NATO. As a sign of good will, Putin removed his forces from the outskirts of the capital Kyiv and from Sumy as well...... then Boris jhonson and that motherfu**ing whore called Nulland, refused the deal and went to Ukraine to convince zelensky to continue the war

If the West havent interfered, then Ukraine would have access to all of its resources and the region would be at peace. However, this means that the Western globalist wouldnt achieve their goal of SEIZING all of Ukraine's resources as well as weakining their main adversary in the region, Russia.

In other words, because of some Western multibillionaires, millions of innocemts from both sides have died

Finally, the ones who lied are the West and not Putin as have proven on numerous occasions. The 2014 line was a sign of good will for no escalation since Putin could have seized all of Ukraine at the time but the West lied to Putin just like they always do

Just watch what Francois Hollande, former french president, said about the 2014 MINSK deal; it wasnt putin but the globalists who wanted a war from the very beginning

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858094523504803869

 

[Spitfire9]

Of course its a was for resources. Russia needs both natural resources and Ukrainian people to try to rebuild Soviet Union.
Thats why they attacked. And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times
1. When russia attacked Georgia
2. When russia take over Crimea and Donbass
Every fail ended up in more escalation, this time I hope we will not fail.

I am ignorant about Georgia but I agree that it was a massive mistake of the west not to respond strongly to the takeover of Crimea and the Donbass.

The unknown quantity to me is Trump. If the US were to raise and continue support for Ukraine, I think that Russia would bury itself economically, possibly within 2 years. It is already well on the way.

IMO the US has no real interest in the welfare of Ukraine. I think it has seen a protracted war in Ukraine in geopolitical terms - as a vehicle to sap the military and economic strengths of Russia.

Russia is burning through money (national wealth fund halved in value being one sign). While weapons production has boosted GDP, weapons are not being built or refurbished as fast as they are being expended. The stockpile of weapons to refurbish is finite and being depleted, as illustrated by tanks used in Ukraine by Russia becoming older and older models.

IMO the best way to curb future Russian aggression in Europe would be for the west to help Russia bring itself to its knees by continuing and intensifying support for Ukraine.

 

[Huelague]

"We" is the collective West that opposes Russia.

No, the West is not really collective. Even in germany, you have a fraction of vassals (pro USA) and a fraction of pro Russia. Now, we could analyze France and other “big” EU countries.