Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Of course its a was for resources. Russia needs both natural resources and Ukrainian people to try to rebuild Soviet Union.
Thats why they attacked. And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times
1. When russia attacked Georgia
2. When russia take over Crimea and Donbass
Every fail ended up in more escalation, this time I hope we will not fail.

I am ignorant about Georgia but I agree that it was a massive mistake of the west not to respond strongly to the takeover of Crimea and the Donbass.

The unknown quantity to me is Trump. If the US were to raise and continue support for Ukraine, I think that Russia would bury itself economically, possibly within 2 years. It is already well on the way.

IMO the US has no real interest in the welfare of Ukraine. I think it has seen a protracted war in Ukraine in geopolitical terms - as a vehicle to sap the military and economic strengths of Russia.

Russia is burning through money (national wealth fund halved in value being one sign). While weapons production has boosted GDP, weapons are not being built or refurbished as fast as they are being expended. The stockpile of weapons to refurbish is finite and being depleted, as illustrated by tanks used in Ukraine by Russia becoming older and older models.

IMO the best way to curb future Russian aggression in Europe would be for the west to help Russia bring itself to its knees by continuing and intensifying support for Ukraine.

 

[Huelague]

"We" is the collective West that opposes Russia.

No, the West is not really collective. Even in germany, you have a fraction of vassals (pro USA) and a fraction of pro Russia. Now, we could analyze France and other “big” EU countries.

 

[Perun]

And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times

West is imaginary and fogy term. I personaly dont belive in "collective west" and "we, the west" terms. If Israel and Japan are west then I dont know who is the "east". It wouldnt be the first time that Poland was "thrown under the bus" for "greather causes" by that same west

 

[Spitfire9]

West is imaginary and fogy term. I personaly dont belive in "collective west" and "we, the west" terms. If Israel and Japan are west then I dont know who is the "east". It wouldnt be the first time that Poland was "thrown under the bus" for "greather causes" by that same west

Could a NATO member be 'thrown under the bus' by the west as happened to Poland in the past? Perhaps you are not talking of being defended if attacked?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Iskander-M missile hitting a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, made in the Soviet Union, has been published. The video was filmed at the Dnepr military airfield. The strike was carried out by a 9M723-K5 missile equipped with a cluster warhead. The video shows an air burst and the missile's precise hit on the target. Presumably, a missile with a 9E436 optical seeker was used, the probable deviation from the target is then 5-20 meters. As a result of the Iskander-M missile strike, the MiG-29 was destroyed, and ground personnel were reportedly also injured. It is worth noting that there are versions that there was a mock-up of the aircraft at the airfield. The explosion does not look like a cluster missile, but this is what the Ministry of Defense reported. Perhaps this is an unknown type of cluster warhead, they are made by two factories.

 

[blackjack]

I am ignorant about Georgia but I agree that it was a massive mistake of the west not to respond strongly to the takeover of Crimea and the Donbass.

The unknown quantity to me is Trump. If the US were to raise and continue support for Ukraine, I think that Russia would bury itself economically, possibly within 2 years. It is already well on the way.

IMO the US has no real interest in the welfare of Ukraine. I think it has seen a protracted war in Ukraine in geopolitical terms - as a vehicle to sap the military and economic strengths of Russia.

Russia is burning through money (national wealth fund halved in value being one sign). While weapons production has boosted GDP, weapons are not being built or refurbished as fast as they are being expended. The stockpile of weapons to refurbish is finite and being depleted, as illustrated by tanks used in Ukraine by Russia becoming older and older models.

IMO the best way to curb future Russian aggression in Europe would be for the west to help Russia bring itself to its knees by continuing and intensifying support for Ukraine.

There really is nothing unknown about Trump if he and one of his family members suggested not throwing anymore money into a blackhole. Only reason his administration would consider cutting funding is that Ukraine either cant win the war or the war is not doing anything to economically ruin Russia. If it was to make Russia's economy collapse than the Trump administration would have be like the Biden administration with this ongoing war. Biden and his family are well known for some shady businesses in Ukraine which can suggest they have something on Biden which is why he is still persistent in his support for Ukraine while Trump isn't.

the EU is not producing/giving enough equipment and support to Ukraine or not effectively getting rid of Russia's stockpile compared to everything I have seen in this thread comparing those losses to what Tam posts on Sino defense forum. I think the war might continue because Lindsey Graham is trending on twitter that the war is about money than it is about the Ukrainians.

 

[Spitfire9]

A bit of economics info

Transport sector

Russian airlines grounding nationalised western airliners...

Nearly 50% Of Russia's Airbus A320/A321 Neo Fleet Grounded Due To Western Sanctions - Reports

Russian airlines have reportedly been forced to ground around half of their Airbus A320/A321 Neo fleets due to ongoing difficulties in sourcing vital spare parts, primarily engines, amid crippling Western sanctions. As Kommersant reported on November 21, 34 of Russia’s 66 Airbus aircraft are...

www.eurasiantimes.com

One way to fix the problem: produce more airliners...

How Are Sanctions Hamstringing The Production Of Russia’s Domestic Airliners?

Domestic Russian commercial jets are being delayed as they are re-designed with Russian-built parts.

simpleflying.com

Another way: if Russia cannot supply air transport in Russia, get someone else to do the transport ...

https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/facing-western-sanction-russia-asks-indian-airlines-to-fly-domestic-routes-124102900333_1.html

Russia is a very big country. A crumbling air transport infrastructure is damaging to its economy.
Recent production of Sukhoi Superjet (Wiki)

2020 11
2021 12
2022 10
2023 0
2024 0