Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Of course its a was for resources. Russia needs both natural resources and Ukrainian people to try to rebuild Soviet Union.
Thats why they attacked. And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times
1. When russia attacked Georgia
2. When russia take over Crimea and Donbass
Every fail ended up in more escalation, this time I hope we will not fail.

I am ignorant about Georgia but I agree that it was a massive mistake of the west not to respond strongly to the takeover of Crimea and the Donbass.

The unknown quantity to me is Trump. If the US were to raise and continue support for Ukraine, I think that Russia would bury itself economically, possibly within 2 years. It is already well on the way.

IMO the US has no real interest in the welfare of Ukraine. I think it has seen a protracted war in Ukraine in geopolitical terms - as a vehicle to sap the military and economic strengths of Russia.

Russia is burning through money (national wealth fund halved in value being one sign). While weapons production has boosted GDP, weapons are not being built or refurbished as fast as they are being expended. The stockpile of weapons to refurbish is finite and being depleted, as illustrated by tanks used in Ukraine by Russia becoming older and older models.

IMO the best way to curb future Russian aggression in Europe would be for the west to help Russia bring itself to its knees by continuing and intensifying support for Ukraine.

 

[Huelague]

"We" is the collective West that opposes Russia.

No, the West is not really collective. Even in germany, you have a fraction of vassals (pro USA) and a fraction of pro Russia. Now, we could analyze France and other “big” EU countries.

 

[Perun]

And we, as the west MUST stop them. If we wont do it now it will be much more costly 5-10 years from now.
We failed 2 times

West is imaginary and fogy term. I personaly dont belive in "collective west" and "we, the west" terms. If Israel and Japan are west then I dont know who is the "east". It wouldnt be the first time that Poland was "thrown under the bus" for "greather causes" by that same west

 

[Spitfire9]

West is imaginary and fogy term. I personaly dont belive in "collective west" and "we, the west" terms. If Israel and Japan are west then I dont know who is the "east". It wouldnt be the first time that Poland was "thrown under the bus" for "greather causes" by that same west

Could a NATO member be 'thrown under the bus' by the west as happened to Poland in the past? Perhaps you are not talking of being defended if attacked?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Iskander-M missile hitting a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, made in the Soviet Union, has been published. The video was filmed at the Dnepr military airfield. The strike was carried out by a 9M723-K5 missile equipped with a cluster warhead. The video shows an air burst and the missile's precise hit on the target. Presumably, a missile with a 9E436 optical seeker was used, the probable deviation from the target is then 5-20 meters. As a result of the Iskander-M missile strike, the MiG-29 was destroyed, and ground personnel were reportedly also injured. It is worth noting that there are versions that there was a mock-up of the aircraft at the airfield. The explosion does not look like a cluster missile, but this is what the Ministry of Defense reported. Perhaps this is an unknown type of cluster warhead, they are made by two factories.

 

[blackjack]

I am ignorant about Georgia but I agree that it was a massive mistake of the west not to respond strongly to the takeover of Crimea and the Donbass.

The unknown quantity to me is Trump. If the US were to raise and continue support for Ukraine, I think that Russia would bury itself economically, possibly within 2 years. It is already well on the way.

IMO the US has no real interest in the welfare of Ukraine. I think it has seen a protracted war in Ukraine in geopolitical terms - as a vehicle to sap the military and economic strengths of Russia.

Russia is burning through money (national wealth fund halved in value being one sign). While weapons production has boosted GDP, weapons are not being built or refurbished as fast as they are being expended. The stockpile of weapons to refurbish is finite and being depleted, as illustrated by tanks used in Ukraine by Russia becoming older and older models.

IMO the best way to curb future Russian aggression in Europe would be for the west to help Russia bring itself to its knees by continuing and intensifying support for Ukraine.

There really is nothing unknown about Trump if he and one of his family members suggested not throwing anymore money into a blackhole. Only reason his administration would consider cutting funding is that Ukraine either cant win the war or the war is not doing anything to economically ruin Russia. If it was to make Russia's economy collapse than the Trump administration would have be like the Biden administration with this ongoing war. Biden and his family are well known for some shady businesses in Ukraine which can suggest they have something on Biden which is why he is still persistent in his support for Ukraine while Trump isn't.

the EU is not producing/giving enough equipment and support to Ukraine or not effectively getting rid of Russia's stockpile compared to everything I have seen in this thread comparing those losses to what Tam posts on Sino defense forum. I think the war might continue because Lindsey Graham is trending on twitter that the war is about money than it is about the Ukrainians.

 

[Spitfire9]

A bit of economics info

Transport sector

Russian airlines grounding nationalised western airliners...

Nearly 50% Of Russia's Airbus A320/A321 Neo Fleet Grounded Due To Western Sanctions - Reports

Russian airlines have reportedly been forced to ground around half of their Airbus A320/A321 Neo fleets due to ongoing difficulties in sourcing vital spare parts, primarily engines, amid crippling Western sanctions. As Kommersant reported on November 21, 34 of Russia’s 66 Airbus aircraft are...

www.eurasiantimes.com

One way to fix the problem: produce more airliners...

How Are Sanctions Hamstringing The Production Of Russia’s Domestic Airliners?

Domestic Russian commercial jets are being delayed as they are re-designed with Russian-built parts.

simpleflying.com

Another way: if Russia cannot supply air transport in Russia, get someone else to do the transport ...

https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/facing-western-sanction-russia-asks-indian-airlines-to-fly-domestic-routes-124102900333_1.html

Russia is a very big country. A crumbling air transport infrastructure is damaging to its economy.
Recent production of Sukhoi Superjet (Wiki)

2020 11
2021 12
2022 10
2023 0
2024 0

 

[blackjack]

A bit of economics info

Transport sector

Russian airlines grounding nationalised western airliners...

Nearly 50% Of Russia's Airbus A320/A321 Neo Fleet Grounded Due To Western Sanctions - Reports

Russian airlines have reportedly been forced to ground around half of their Airbus A320/A321 Neo fleets due to ongoing difficulties in sourcing vital spare parts, primarily engines, amid crippling Western sanctions. As Kommersant reported on November 21, 34 of Russia’s 66 Airbus aircraft are...

www.eurasiantimes.com

One way to fix the problem: produce more airliners...

How Are Sanctions Hamstringing The Production Of Russia’s Domestic Airliners?

Domestic Russian commercial jets are being delayed as they are re-designed with Russian-built parts.

simpleflying.com

Another way: if Russia cannot supply air transport in Russia, get someone else to do the transport ...

https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/facing-western-sanction-russia-asks-indian-airlines-to-fly-domestic-routes-124102900333_1.html

Russia is a very big country. A crumbling air transport infrastructure is damaging to its economy.
Recent production of Sukhoi Superjet (Wiki)

2020 11
2021 12
2022 10
2023 0
2024 0

good information, here is mine.

Анонсирован первый полет импортозамещенного МС-21 с двигателем ПД-14

В Минпромторге сообщили о намеченных на конец марта – начало апреля 2025 года первых полетах полностью импортозамещенного самолета МС-21, оснащенного отечественными двигателями ПД-14.

vz.ru

The first flight of the import-substituting MS-21 with the PD-14 engine has been announced, by Dmitry Zubarev for VZGLYAD. 11.21.2024.

Alikhanov announced the first flights of the import-substituting MS-21 in March-April 2025.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the first flights of the fully import-substituted MS-21 aircraft, equipped with domestic PD-14 engines, are scheduled for late March – early April 2025.

According to him, the first flights of the fully import-substituted MS-21 aircraft are planned for the end of March – beginning of April 2025, TASS reports .

Alikhanov stated: “At the beginning of next year, we will, in fact, begin certification flights on our completely domestic PD-14.”

He also noted that work on a domestic wide-body aircraft with PD-35 engines is ongoing and will be completed after 2030. According to him, the exact dates have not yet been determined, but "the work, most importantly, is ongoing."

As Vzglyad newspaper wrote, the first deliveries of the Russian MS-21 passenger aircraft to airlines could begin in 2025, and Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov announced plans to begin serial production of the MS-21 aircraft in 2025 and the Superjet New in 2026, despite difficulties with the key rate.

Россия делает последний шаг к полной независимости от Boeing и Airbus

Первые полеты полностью импортозамещенных МС-21 и SJ-100 c отечественными двигателями должны состояться в 2025 году, заявили в Минпромторге. Тем самым Россия покажет Западу, что не только может самостоятельно строить самолеты, но и делать их на 100% из собственных деталей независимо от западных...

vz.ru

Russia takes final step toward full independence from Boeing and Airbus, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 11.22.2024.

The first flights of the fully import-substituted MS-21 and SJ-100 with domestic engines should take place in 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced. In this way, Russia will show the West that it can not only independently build aircraft, but also make them 100% from its own parts, regardless of Western engines and components.

"The PD-14 is already ready, certified, and we are on schedule here. At the beginning of next year, we will actually begin certification flights on our completely domestic PD-14, and at the end of March - beginning of April, flights will begin in the completely import-substituted version of the MS-21," said Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov in an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel.

The MS-21 is already flying, including with the PD-14 engine, and its deliveries to airlines were supposed to begin in 2022. However, Western sanctions imposed on Russia prevented the implementation of these plans. The delay is due precisely to the fact that Russia is import-substituting the entire aircraft, including composite materials, etc. And of course, a new aircraft without Western components requires certification tests in the sky. After receiving this document, airlines will immediately begin to put this aircraft into operation.

"As a new import-substituting system appears and is installed on the aircraft, the airliner flies to test it. And they promise to test a 100% import-substituting aircraft next year, when all components will already be domestic. This will be the final stage of certification flight tests," says Roman Gusarov, head of Avia.ru.

The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also confirmed plans to begin certification flights of the short-haul SJ-100 with the domestic PD-8 engine next year. Unlike the MS-21, for which the domestic PD-14 engine was initially developed, its smaller brother PD-8 is only being developed.

"There were many different complex stories with individual units, they have all been resolved at the moment, and we really hope that in the near future, literally next month, we will go to a flying laboratory and stop testing all this on the ground, and will move on to tests in the air. And of course, then, next year, our task is to test on the Superjet, on the machine itself," Alikhanov said.

Russia also plans to develop a series of high-thrust engines PD-35, which after 2030 are supposed to be used on the planned Russian wide-body aircraft. "The most important thing here is the materials. Several R&D projects have already been completed. This is a long-term project, and we will certainly continue it. Funds for this have already been partially included in the draft budget," Alikhanov noted.

As for the MS-21, 10 of them have already been produced. “That is, serial production has already been launched, but these aircraft are not being transferred to airlines, since not all units have been certified yet. The aircraft are in storage awaiting the completion of certification tests. As soon as the document is received, these aircraft will be immediately transferred to airlines. That is, we can expect that in 2025, airlines will receive at least 10 aircraft. Plus, the same number can be assembled within a year,” says Roman Gusarov.

The production facilities are ready to produce 36 aircraft per year, but to reach such volumes, it will take about three years, the expert believes.

"If the demand for these planes grows, then the production in Irkutsk can be increased to 72 planes per year, but this will take a few more years. The main thing is that there is demand, because as long as foreign-made planes fly, we will fly them, and they, according to my calculations, will fly for another 10-15 years," says Gusarov. But gradually, foreign-made planes will be replaced by domestic planes.

The situation with the SJ-100 is more complicated for two reasons. First, the MS-21 has a certified PD-14 engine, while the engine for the SJ-100 is only in development. Second, the Superjet needed to import-substitute a larger number of components than the MS-21.


"The Superjet consisted almost entirely of imported components, except for the hardware itself and heat exchangers. The MS-21 was initially planned to have 50% domestic components. Therefore, the scope of work on the SJ-100 is significantly greater," says Gusarov.

The SJ-100 was created a long time ago, and was the first aircraft that Russia created since the Soviet Union. Then the task was to do it at all, and international cooperation in the aviation industry has always existed. The MS-21 was created based on experience, and they immediately began to make both a domestic engine and domestic components for it.

However, there should be no problems with the PD-8 engine for the SJ-100, since, in essence, we are talking about creating a smaller copy of the PD-14 engine.

As for the PD-35 engine for wide-body aircraft (the largest ones), this is a longer-term task, as is the creation of our own wide-body airliner.


"PD-35 is a very complex engine with a diameter of more than three meters. It takes time to create a large number of new technologies that the country does not yet have. But the problem of not having our own wide-body aircraft is not so critical.


If 500 narrow-body aircraft are needed, then only 100 wide-body aircraft. In addition, narrow-body aircraft can fly long distances, for example, to the Far East, with only one stopover. Therefore, even if there is some shortage of wide-body aircraft, we will still not be left without the ability to fly long distances," Gusarov believes.

Having its own line of aircraft with domestic engines and fully import-substituted components is extremely important for Russia.

"There are two main manufacturers in the world - American Boeing and European Airbus, and we cannot get planes anywhere else. No other country produces such planes. Only China. But if you take the Chinese analogue of the MS-21, it is completely assembled from Western components, and it has Western engines. China is very vulnerable. If the Americans introduce the same sanctions against China as against us, then all their planes will stop - both foreign and Chinese. And they will not be able to overcome this technologically. And first of all, because they do not have their own engines. But we do. It is important not only to create planes ourselves, but also to be independent," the interlocutor concludes.

I am assuming they will use existing western passenger aircrafts before switching over. They got production set for 2025; Hell I think they can be competitive in the airliner market as well.

 

[Spitfire9]

Thanks for the update. I don't have time to check right now, so what follows is from memory mostly

I am sure some airliners will be produced soon in Russia. Why were the modern designs vulnerable to sanctions? Basically they incorporated many western elements/systems since they were much higher grade than Russian ones. Without them Russian airliners would not have been competitive with western designs. What does that suggest about the economics of the Russified versions?

IIRC Russia seized over 400 A320/B737 in 2021. Without proper maintenance many will have to be grounded soon, although normaI airworthiness regulations have been suspended to enable them to keep flying without proper maintenance.

I don't see Russia building enough airliners to keep up with groundings for several years. I suspect that only a handful of Russified airliners will be produced in the next 2-4 years. It is almost inconceivable that 1,000 airliners will be manufactured in Russia by 2030.

That is damaging to the Russian economy, all down to invading Ukraine.

 

[blackjack]

Thanks for the update. I don't have time to check right now, so what follows is from memory mostly

I am sure some airliners will be produced soon in Russia. Why were the modern designs vulnerable to sanctions? Basically they incorporated many western elements/systems since they were much higher grade than Russian ones. Without them Russian airliners would not have been competitive with western designs. What does that suggest about the economics of the Russified versions?

IIRC Russia seized over 400 A320/B737 in 2021. Without proper maintenance many will have to be grounded soon, although normaI airworthiness regulations have been suspended to enable them to keep flying without proper maintenance.

I don't see Russia building enough airliners to keep up with groundings for several years. I suspect that only a handful of Russified airliners will be produced in the next 2-4 years. It is almost inconceivable that 1,000 airliners will be manufactured in Russia by 2030.

That is damaging to the Russian economy, all down to invading Ukraine.

I feel like you did not read my articles, they did say they have 10-15 years left to use the foreign aircrafts, 10 will be produced in 2025. 3 more years production will be 36 aircrafts, or it can be 72 if the demand is higher in the same production facility. so the plans look like 2025:10, 2026:10 2027:10 2028:36-72, 2029: 36-72, 2030:36-72. Assuming the news report came from late 2024 in 6 years they can produce 138-246 airliners. This is 6 years but their reliance for foreign aircraft is 10-15 years and you claim that over 400 airliners were seized to be used by Russia. I hate to say this but mathematically speaking they will meet the over 400 aircraft replacement demand in 2035 while still using some foreign aircraft that still have some service life left.

Miscalculations happen all the time like they will run out of missiles, they won't be able to produce their own cars, they won't be able to produce their own chips, they wont be able to produce their own airliners, they won't be able to start producing tanks and IFVs for this war, etc you get the picture. Another miscalculation that happened was after nuking Japan the US thought it would take Russia 10 years to make a nuke but instead it was a few years afterwards. Hitler and Napoleon made miscalculations to with some other superpowers before them to.

 

[Spitfire9]

Putin said Russia planned to produce 1,000 airliners by 2030, not by 2035.

Russia plans to produce more than 1,000 aircraft by 2030 — Putin

The head of state added that the Russian industry plans to produce MC-21 passenger jets and make a change to Russian engines for certain aircraft

tass.com

PS I read quite a lot in the article about the different types to be manufactured but missed the estimate of how long the western types would last in service.