Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

While in theory I agree with you, I think that the Western banking system‘s reputation is so low now, that it doesn’t even matter anymore.

Ever since the US enacted FATCA and the OECD implemented the CRS, the global banking system has turned into complete trash, with zero credibility.

Freezing accounts, sanctions, exchange of information, closing accounts for no reasons, this is what today’s banking system is. There is no more secrecy or trust anymore. So from this point of view, there is no reputation left to defend.

I defer to your better knowledge but do not agree to Russian deposits in foreign banks being sequestered.


About Russia 'winning' this war: this writer and I are in agreement over the irrelevance of small territorial gains or losses by either Russia or Ukraine.

In 2025, at a cost of around 200,000 to 300,000 soldiers killed and injured, the Russian army has so far managed to capture just a thin sliver of frontier zone amounting, according to the most reliable sources, to around 0.6 per cent of Ukraine’s total territory. At the rate they have been going in 2025, it would theoretically take the Russians around 100 years and tens of millions of casualties to conquer the rest of Ukraine. In fact, in August 2025, Russia controlled less of Ukraine’s territory than it did in August 2022.

Why Ukraine is winning the war

Russia has failed to achieve its core aim — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation

www.ft.com

 

[Relic]

It is not normal for banks to convert deposits into IOU's without the depositors' agreement. This move sets a precedent threatening confidence in the western banking system. Is it worth doing just to save finding $300 Billion USD? I don't think that is a good idea. Better for 'the West' to fund Ukraine out of its own pockets than to undermine confidence in its banking system IMO.

Ultimately, I agree with the larger point you're alluding to... The European Union + Britain + Norway + Canada + Australia + Japan , all of whom back Ukraine, spent trillions of combined usd to combat the existential threat that they thought Covid-19 to be. Even without the financial help from the United States , there is no reason that 30+ countries, including some of the wealthiest in the world (Germany, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Norway, etc) can't come up with $100 Billion collectively on an annual basis. $70'ish billion usd annually for weapons and military industrial funding and $30'ish billion usd annually towards Ukraine's budget shortfall.

 

[Spitfire9]

Russia’s Finance Ministry on Wednesday proposed raising the country’s value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% starting next year, as part of a new three-year budget plan aimed at covering surging defense and security spending.

The increase would generate an estimated 1.3 trillion rubles ($15.5 billion) in revenues annually, according to the business newspaper Kommersant, which published, then later deleted, a Finance Ministry forecast showing Russia’s GDP growth slowing to 1% this year, down from an earlier 2.5% estimate. For 2026, policymakers now anticipate economic growth of just 0.5%, far below previous projections of 3%.

Russia’s Finance Ministry is seeking to reassure consumers, who are likely to feel the strain of a VAT increase in the short term, that the impact on prices will be “moderate and limited.” In a statement on Wednesday, the ministry said a reduced 10% VAT rate will remain in place for essential goods like bread, dairy, meat, medicines and children’s products.

The proposed tax hike comes as the federal budget deficit reached 4.88 trillion rubles ($61.1 billion) between January and July, already exceeding the government’s full-year target. Weaker global oil prices, a stronger ruble and high interest rates have sapped growth this year, forcing the government to find ways to make up for the lost revenues.

Russia Moves to Raise VAT by 2% as Budget Deficit Swells - The Moscow Times

Russia’s Finance Ministry on Wednesday proposed raising the country’s value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% starting next year, as part of a new three-year budget plan aimed at covering surging defense and security spending.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Make of this what you will. I see Russia's economy and government finances sliding further in 2026. How much longer can it afford to finance a now senseless war? To me it became senseless early in 2022 when it became apparent that Russia could not take Kyiv in a few days or weeks, so overthrowing the Ukrainian government.

 

[Relic]

Ukrainian President Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has received a Patriot Battery from Israel and that the system is currently operational and has been for approximately 1 month. Zelensky also noted that Ukraine will receive 2 additional Patriot Batteries this fall, from a collaboration of countries including USA , Germany , Norway , Greece and The Netherlands all contributing components or funding towards the purchase of components.

Ukraine received Patriot system from Israel | Euractiv

The Patriot system provides long-range interception of both ballistic and cruise missiles

www.euractiv.com

Weiterleitungshinweis

After this fall's deliveries Ukraine will operate 10 Patriot Batteries, with the majority being used to defend Ukraine's big cities and key military infrastructure such as aerodromes.

 

[Relic]

With Donald Trump frustrated with Putin's unwillingness to cave on his maximalist demands, Zelensky announced today that that Ukraine has requested $90 Billion usd in arms from USA. The Pentagon is expected to look at the list and approve items that they are willing to sell Ukraine and Ukraine's backers. The list is said to be exhaustive, including everything from air defense systems, weapons for Ukraine's F-16s, aerial munitions, multi-variant drones, armored vehicles, artillery, anti-armor weapons, etc.

While Ukraine certainly won't receive everything on their wish list, $90 Billion usd worth of purely weapons is an enormous quantity. I'll be curious to see how quickly Ukraine can raise funding for purchases from the list from it's 30+ financial backers.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says he has provided Trump with list of requested weapons worth $90B

Israeli Patriot system has been in use in Ukraine for a month and Kyiv will receive 2 more new systems in fall, say Zelenskyy - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Spitfire9]

For those with short memories...

Russian Rhetoric Ahead of Attack Against Ukraine: Deny, Deflect, Mislead - FactCheck.org

As Russia amassed troops on the Ukrainian border, Russian leaders repeatedly denied that their country had plans to invade Ukraine. They blamed the U.S., Ukraine and others for the tension, insisting that Russia is a "peaceful country" and that it is "not going to attack anyone." Here we round...

www.factcheck.org

Why should observers believe there is any truth in what Russia says?

 

[Woland]

I see we're having a discussion about Russia's economy. Although Russia's own figures are notoriously unreliable, there are still some good indicators we can use.

• Russia’s own Economy Minister admitted that Russia’s economy is “on the brink of going into a recession”
• If current trends continue, Russia’s national wealth fund will be depleted in 2026
• Russia’s 2026 budget decreases military spending by 6.7%
• Putin has been forced to raise taxes on ordinary Russians — twice already in 2025
• Loss of over 2 million working-age adults due to immigration and war casualties
• Skyrocketing inflation on staples such as food. Households spent 35% of all income on food in April 2025, up from 29% last April.
• In Q1 of 2025, 16.1% of consumer loans in Russia were delinquent
• Interest rate of 17%
• Ukrainian drone attacks are increasingly causing gas shortages across Russia
  • Roughly 20% of Russia’s refining capacity is believed to be incapacitated. Replacing critical components is difficult and slow due to sanctions
  • Useful data point: on 9/25/25, in Crimea, 50% of gas stations stopped selling gas. Across all Southern Russia - 14%.

 

[contricusc]

Tonight, Moldova voted in parliamentary elections. After about half of the voting sections were counted, Maia Sandu’s pro-EU party (PAS) is leading with 43% of votes, while the pro-Russian alliance (Blocul Patriotic) is second with 29%.

It seems that the election will be a great win for the pro-EU president, and Moldova will continue its European trajectory and move away from Russia for good.

 

[contricusc]

After more ballots were counted, PAS increased its share to 48% and the pro-Russians fell to 26%. The current projections show a majority in parliament for PAS, who will be able to govern without the need of a hung-parliament..

 

[contricusc]

As more than 99% of ballots were counted, PAS reached 50% of the vote, while the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc fell to 24%. The pro-EU party got twice as many votes as the pro-Russia party.

PAS is projected to have 55 seats in parliament out of a total of 101. This means they will mantain a solid majority and won’t need to make compromises with other parties or form alliances. Moldova has cleared a big hurdle and now it can continue its journey towards joining the EU.

Russia is losing at the ballot box against the EU, and this is great news for the future of Eastern Europe and the Balkans.

Now we need Hungary to change sides next year and oust Orban, and for Serbia to also vote pro-European in 2027. Russia needs to lose its political influence in Europe.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a combined strike by Russian Gerani-2 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile on a workshop of a Ukrainian army repair and maintenance battalion. The video was filmed near the town of Zaporizhzhia. According to media reports, the workshops of the Ukrainian brewery were used as a base for repairing military equipment

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the first downing of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter by a Ukrainian FPV drone. The video was filmed in the Donetsk region. The FPV drone was used by soldiers from the 59th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. Judging by the video, the FPV drone was patrolling a road when, upon spotting the helicopter, the operator decided to attack. As a result of the drone strike, the Mi-8 helicopter was forced to make an emergency landing. The helicopter's crew was evacuated, and the helicopter itself burned on the ground. A Russian Ka-52 helicopter provided cover for the evacuation team. It's worth noting that this isn't the first attempt to down a helicopter; sooner or later, it would have happened.

 

[MaciekRS]

Judging by OFFICIAL flights registered in FR24 there are suddenly many cargo planes flying to the Polish airports near Ukraine borders.
For the last 3 days there are 6-8 planes a day which is as many as it was at the start of the war in 22.
Propably russians or Ukraine are preparing for something.

 

[Spitfire9]

I

Tonight, Moldova voted in parliamentary elections. After about half of the voting sections were counted, Maia Sandu’s pro-EU party (PAS) is leading with 43% of votes, while the pro-Russian alliance (Blocul Patriotic) is second with 29%.

It seems that the election will be a great win for the pro-EU president, and Moldova will continue its European trajectory and move away from Russia for good.

t's annoying for Putin that Ukraine lies between Russia and Moldova. Moldova's armed forces are tiny. After an election result showing strong support for an EU-leaning candidate, Moldova needs to be brought back to its senses by Russia moving in, toppling the government in a few days and returning Moldova to the Russian fold. Like it did in Ukraine.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian aircraft using D-30SN guided, multi-service air-glide munitions. The D-30SN bombs were dropped by a Russian Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber. The video shows Russian D-30SN bombs striking a drone launch site belonging to the 152nd Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The video was presumably filmed in the Pokrovsk area.

 

[Relic]

Ursula von der Leyen announced today that the European Union will send Ukraine $2.35 Billion usd for the purchase of drones and the further expansion of Ukraine's domestic drone production.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-pledge-2-billion-euros-drones-for-ukraine-reparations-loan-idea/

 

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian Magura V5 sea drone was discovered off the coast of Turkey. Fishermen spotted the Magura drone while fishing at night in Çarşıbaşı, Trabzon Province. The fishermen mistook the Ukrainian sea drone for a regular boat and brought it directly to the port, leading to the evacuation of the harbor. The unmanned Ukrainian Magura boat allegedly lost contact and drifted off course. The Russian army also recently received a Magura V5 sea drone. The Magura sea drone will be handed over to the Turkish military for study.

 

[Spitfire9]

In a video message on the Kremlin's website, Mr Putin said: "Our fighters and commanders go on the attack, and the entire country, all of Russia, is waging this righteous battle and working hard.

"We are fighting and we are prevailing."

MSN

Well, you're not prevailing very quickly, are you, Mr Putin? In 10+ years Russia has managed to prevail over 20% of Ukraine. Only another 40 years to go at that rate and Russia will have prevailed over 100% of Ukraine. Somehow I don't think that the Russian economy and finances can last out that long.

 

[Iskander]

Well, you're not prevailing very quickly, are you, Mr Putin? In 10+ years Russia has managed to prevail over 20% of Ukraine. Only another 40 years to go at that rate and Russia will have prevailed over 100% of Ukraine. Somehow I don't think that the Russian economy and finances can last out that long.

This is an unfair war on the Russian side. A typical imperialist war. Russia won't win it. I follow Russian media; Russians have long suspected, from the very first weeks, that something had gone wrong. Now they are deeply depressed. Even the most ardent Russian Nazis have lost faith; no one is helping the army anymore.
In the first months of the war, the Germans decided to supply the Ukrainians with non-lethal weapons. The Kremlin began threatening the universe with the Apocalypse. And a year later, Western heavy weapons have already appeared in Ukraine.
Now it's time for the Tomahawks.
If Ukraine receives them, and this is most likely the case, then 90% of Russian military-industrial facilities will be within range of these missiles. Trans-Urals! Western Siberia! All the way to Omsk!
The Russians are so depressed that, contrary to their usual habits, they are even making somewhat half-hearted threats... about the consequences. Even Medvedev, after reports emerged about the possible deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine, instead of his usual battle cry, began meowing like Leopold the Cat: “Let’s live in peace!»

the news just came out
"US President Donald Trump, speaking to the top command of the United States Armed Forces, sharply criticized Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, calling him a 'stupid man,' and also announced an order to send two submarines carrying 300 Tomahawk missiles to the shores of Russia

Американские подводные лодки у «побережья» России - так заявил Трамп; новость дополнена 20:03

haqqin.az

 

[Spitfire9]

This is an unfair war on the Russian side. A typical imperialist war. Russia won't win it. I follow Russian media; Russians have long suspected, from the very first weeks, that something had gone wrong. Now they are deeply depressed. Even the most ardent Russian Nazis have lost faith; no one is helping the army anymore.
In the first months of the war, the Germans decided to supply the Ukrainians with non-lethal weapons. The Kremlin began threatening the universe with the Apocalypse. And a year later, Western heavy weapons have already appeared in Ukraine.
Now it's time for the Tomahawks.
If Ukraine receives them, and this is most likely the case, then 90% of Russian military-industrial facilities will be within range of these missiles. Trans-Urals! Western Siberia! All the way to Omsk!
The Russians are so depressed that, contrary to their usual habits, they are even making somewhat half-hearted threats... about the consequences. Even Medvedev, after reports emerged about the possible deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine, instead of his usual battle cry, began meowing like Leopold the Cat: “Let’s live in peace!»

My bold at the end. It does sound like Medvedev is worried if he is not threatening terrible consequences to countries left, right and centre if Ukraine receives Tomahawk with no limits on where Ukraine can target it.

PS The range, survivability and warhead of Tomahawk would present a serious new threat to Russian refineries, wouldn't they? Perhaps some crude loading facilities as well? And pipelines, too? I look forward to hearing that Russia's ability to export crude is severely reduced and its ability to produce fuel for sale in Russia is likewise hit badly.

So, tell me, supporters of Russia on this thread, who do you now think will 'win' this war.

Last thing I would do now if I were Zelensky would be to accept any kind of ceasefire at this point.