Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

GoatsMilk

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from an anglo-american perspective, the longer the war drags out the better. If they wanted Ukraine to win the USA could easily arm them with the weapons to do so. But they don't do it. This war is probably going to go on past 10 years. Americans will keep it alive for as long as its in their interest to do so.
 

Spitfire9

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from an anglo-american perspective, the longer the war drags out the better. If they wanted Ukraine to win the USA could easily arm them with the weapons to do so. But they don't do it. This war is probably going to go on past 10 years. Americans will keep it alive for as long as its in their interest to do so.
I think the US will need to provide Russia with funding if it wants the war to last a lot longer.

Like you I came to the conclusion that Biden, after all the talk of helping Ukraine to expel the Russian invaders, did not actually want that to happen. Russia would bleed itself dry if the war could be managed by the US to become a stalemate.

By the way, that was never the British position.
 
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UkroTurk

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Spitfire9

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Russian progress on the ground...

Russian economy regression...


Personally I think this is good news - Putin is determined to continue despite crumbling finances and a crumbling economy. The longer he persists, the more damage he will do to Eussia's finances and economy and the weaker Russia will be.
 
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contricusc

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Just as I said @contricusc
Ukraine is conducting nothing more than an information warfare. However, reality on the ground indicate that Russia is winning👇

Oh, you means this flag?


I will repeat it again. Ukraine must do a ceasefire even if it is costly since Ukraine in the next 2-3 months will suffer enormous damage.
Currently, the cities of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Vovchansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, and Konstantinovka are on the verge of being lost

Last year, Russia only managed to capture 1 city. This year, Russia is close to capturing 5-8 cities.

By this point, it is safe to say that Ukrainian channels are providing fake info to its users

Dream on, and keep watching Russian propaganda. Ukraine is not looking for a ceasefire. Their strategy is to bleed Russia until it collapses. All Ukrainians support this strategy, and they want to build up their long range capabilities and destroy Russia‘s oil and gas industry.

Ukraine already reached a technological point where it no longer needs to stop the war, as it can now keep it going until it wins. There is a fundamental difference between Russia and Ukraine: the way they finance the war. Russia finances the war through its own economy, which is being hit by sanctions, drones and cruise missiles. Ukraine finances its war through European donations, and Europe’s economy is free from sanctions or kinetic attacks.

Russia’s economy will collapse under the weight of sanctions and explosions, and Russia won’t be able to keep up with the costs of the war. Europe’s economy will do just fine and will be able to finance Ukraine, to cite Mario Draghi: “for as long as it takes”.
 

Lool

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Oh, you means this flag?




Dream on, and keep watching Russian propaganda. Ukraine is not looking for a ceasefire. Their strategy is to bleed Russia until it collapses. All Ukrainians support this strategy, and they want to build up their long range capabilities and destroy Russia‘s oil and gas industry.

Ukraine already reached a technological point where it no longer needs to stop the war, as it can now keep it going until it wins. There is a fundamental difference between Russia and Ukraine: the way they finance the war. Russia finances the war through its own economy, which is being hit by sanctions, drones and cruise missiles. Ukraine finances its war through European donations, and Europe’s economy is free from sanctions or kinetic attacks.

Russia’s economy will collapse under the weight of sanctions and explosions, and Russia won’t be able to keep up with the costs of the war. Europe’s economy will do just fine and will be able to finance Ukraine, to cite Mario Draghi: “for as long as it takes”.
You yourself said why on earth Ukraine is screwed mate; it is because it is being funded by the EU economy. Wars are expensive and this war in particular costs billions if not trillions every year. If so, then ask yourself such a question! How on earth is Europe financing this war? From where do they get the money?
Nations such as Germany have already cancelled many services to its people in order to finance the war and this will eventually lead to lower quality of life, increased dissatisfaction and eventually loss of votes during elections. Politicians hate that.
Even Trump admitted that the US just cant supply unlimited money to Ukraine anymore

Dont you find it strange that the only ones talking about ceasefire are Western groups, politicians, and media channels? That is because they are nearly reaching their limits for what they can provide out of their own pockets. It reached a point in which they are risking their own financial independence by discussing whether to annex Russian assets and give it to Ukraine. When that happens, all foreign nations will remove their assets from Europe.

Finally, this war has reached a point where it isnt about technology anymore but more focused on manpower. Ukraine doesnt have anymore reserves to throw into the frontline by this point while Russia, according to US outlets, are pumping tens of thousands of mercenaries every month in this shitty war. In other words, no matter how fancy your weapons are, if there are no men to carry or use them, then what is the damn point in the first place?
 

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Unfortunaly, I think China and India would not refuse the oil from Russia, expecially when US.Navy is blocking Venezuela.
By the way, if you consider about the population, there are totally 3 billion people in these two country, how could they change their energy structure because of a war IN EUROPE.
 

TR_123456

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Unfortunaly, I think China and India would not refuse the oil from Russia, expecially when US.Navy is blocking Venezuela.
By the way, if you consider about the population, there are totally 3 billion people in these two country, how could they change their energy structure because of a war IN EUROPE.
Why should they refuse the oil from Russia?
 

Soldier30

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Záběry ruského dronu s ochranou proti minám (MPV) na vzácném ukrajinském obrněném vozidle Tempest 4x4. Ochrana proti minám (MPV) Tempest 4x4 byla ve Velké Británii vyrobena v roce 2002, celkem jich bylo vyrobeno pouze osm. Tempest 4x4 je založen na komponentech z nákladního vozu Peterbilt 330 a může přepravovat až osm osob. Video bylo natočeno v Dněpropetrovské oblasti na Ukrajině a ukazuje, jak je ukrajinský Tempest 4x4 zničen útoky dronů

 

Spitfire9

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Thats not going to happen,maybe India by threats by China never.
Reports at the moment suggest that China and India have paused importing Russian crude. I think that probably means they have paused making new contracts although Bloomberg reports that a tanker bound for India with a cargo of Russian crude turned round and went back to the Baltic,

If contracts are made for shipment weeks later it will take many weeks for the tankers concerned to be loaded and to sail to India or China. Unless India or China cancel recent contracts Russian crude will continue to arrive for several more weeks even if no new contracts are made.

I wonder how the US will view crude contracts made before the sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft were announced.
November 21st is the cut off date given by the US. for anyone to deal with those two companies.

I agree that the US is dependent on trade with China but not really with India. India is vulnerable. An easy way to put pressure on India to adhere to the US directive would be to tell GE to delay or stop GE F404 engine deliveries to India, thereby disrupting or halting production of its long awaited Tejas Mk1A fighter.
 

contricusc

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You yourself said why on earth Ukraine is screwed mate; it is because it is being funded by the EU economy. Wars are expensive and this war in particular costs billions if not trillions every year. If so, then ask yourself such a question! How on earth is Europe financing this war? From where do they get the money?

Look at EU’s GDP, and then compare it to Russia’s. Now you will see who is having a problem with financing the war. Compared to Russia, Europe has an unlimited amount of money. Since attrition wars are all about resources and the economy, Europe can continue for as long as it takes, because Russia is the one who’s going to get bankrupt first.

Even Trump admitted that the US just cant supply unlimited money to Ukraine anymore

Trump is an idiot, and he doesn’t want to supply money for Ukraine, it’s not about the ability to do it. The US could supply Ukraine with money without any problem, if it wanted to. Look at the size of their deficit spending. The cost of supporting Ukraine is tiny compared to that. The problem is political, not economical.

Dont you find it strange that the only ones talking about ceasefire are Western groups, politicians, and media channels? That is because they are nearly reaching their limits for what they can provide out of their own pockets. It reached a point in which they are risking their own financial independence by discussing whether to annex Russian assets and give it to Ukraine. When that happens, all foreign nations will remove their assets from Europe.

In Europe you have free speech, so you will always hear opinions from all camps and persoectives. Those who speak about a ceasfire either don’t care about Ukraine, or they are just Putin’s tools. But the majority of Europeans know very well that Russia must be defeated, and despite a vocal minority of traitors that tries to help Putin’s cause, Europe will continue to look for its own interests, which are the defeat and partition of Russia into smaller and weaker states.

Finally, this war has reached a point where it isnt about technology anymore but more focused on manpower. Ukraine doesnt have anymore reserves to throw into the frontline by this point while Russia, according to US outlets, are pumping tens of thousands of mercenaries every month in this shitty war. In other words, no matter how fancy your weapons are, if there are no men to carry or use them, then what is the damn point in the first place?

Technology remains extremely important for two reasons:
- On a micro scale, at the frontlines, better technology and equipment means an improved casuality ratio, which reduces your own attrition, and increases the attrition of the enemy.
- On a macro scale, better technology means the ability to strike at the enemy’s MIC, industry, logistics, etc., hurting its ability to finance and support the frontline.

In the first years of the war, Russia had a technological advantage over Ukraine, as Russia had the means to strike targets anywhere inside Ukraine, while Ukraine couldn’t strike back inside Russia. But this technological gap in long range capability is slowly closing, as Ukraine has acquired the means to strike deeper and deeper inside Russia.

And when deep strike parity is reached, Ukraine will be at a great advantage, because a big part of Ukraine’s resources, such as money and weapons come from outside Ukraine, and cannot be hit by Russia, while Russia remains dependent on its own capabilities to finance and produce its weapons, and those capabilities can be degraded through long range strikes.

So here is the summary:
- In the first years of the war, Ukraine had to defend mostly with its own resources, while Russia was able to hit everywhere in Ukraine, without fear of being hit back
- Now, Ukraine has many bakers and receives lots of resources from outside, so it is less vulnerable to Russian disruption. On the other hand, Russia’s territory is vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, and its industrial and economic infrastructure is being constantly degraded.

Russia started with an advantage, but Ukraine turned the tables with the help of Europe and the US. Now the war is set on a course that leads to Russia’s defeat. Only time is needed for that to happen.
 

Huelague

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from an anglo-american perspective, the longer the war drags out the better. If they wanted Ukraine to win the USA could easily arm them with the weapons to do so. But they don't do it. This war is probably going to go on past 10 years. Americans will keep it alive for as long as its in their interest to do so.
And who will use this sponsored weapons?
Not to mention, that US administration will end the war.
 

Spitfire9

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I will repeat it again. Ukraine must do a ceasefire even if it is costly since Ukraine in the next 2-3 months will suffer enormous damage.
Ukraine has shifted from restricting military action purely within its borders to fighting Russia in Russia. It seems to be having some success. Even the government had to admit that fuel shortages existed after Trump referred to them.

To continue this war - which is Putin's intention - Russia needs to find the cash to pay the war factories and the soldiers... and the doctors and the teachers and the people working in the administration, companies building infrastructure, companies maintaining infrastructure etc etc I think Putin is spending around 500 million USD a day on the war. How does he finance it? He confiscates companies, borrows from the banks by forcing them to make loans to the MIC, restricts bank loans to consumers, raises tax rates on company profits, raises sales tax (VAT) etc. Companies that were profitable now lose money. No tax to had on profits there.

Putin cannot finance this war. except by taking extraordinary destructive measures against Russia and Russian citizens.

Why must Ukraine do a ceasefire? Because Putin will otherwise increase the rate of killing and destruction? Did England ask for a ceasefire in 1940 because a lot of damage and deaths were being caused by German bombing? Did Germany in 1945? People whose country has been invaded are prepared to withstand a lot of death and damage in an effort to remain free from invaders.
 

Huelague

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Unfortunaly, I think China and India would not refuse the oil from Russia, expecially when US.Navy is blocking Venezuela.
By the way, if you consider about the population, there are totally 3 billion people in these two country, how could they change their energy structure because of a war IN EUROPE.
Correct!
China and India give a fack of Ukraine or Europe. They have no common sense, just economic interests. Of course, they are not agreed with Russians invasion, but they will not risk there relations with Russia because of Ukraine and GB.
 

contricusc

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People whose country has been invaded are prepared to withstand a lot of death and damage in an effort to remain free from invaders.

This is where Putin and all his cheerleaders have miscalculated. They thought Ukraine would bend the knee to stop their losses, but Ukraine is willing to take a lot of damage to keep its freedom.

The question is, how much damage will the Russians be willing to take, to try to subjugate their neighbors? At what point will they decide it is not worthy anymore? My guess is it will happen when food will be scarce and hard to find on the shelves, which could take a few more years to happen, but it is the inevitable end of Putin’s adventure.
 

TR_123456

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Reports at the moment suggest that China and India have paused importing Russian crude. I think that probably means they have paused making new contracts although Bloomberg reports that a tanker bound for India with a cargo of Russian crude turned round and went back to the Baltic,

If contracts are made for shipment weeks later it will take many weeks for the tankers concerned to be loaded and to sail to India or China. Unless India or China cancel recent contracts Russian crude will continue to arrive for several more weeks even if no new contracts are made.
You know there is a pipeline from Russia to China,yes?
Gas and oil pipeline.

I agree that the US is dependent on trade with China but not really with India. India is vulnerable. An easy way to put pressure on India to adhere to the US directive would be to tell GE to delay or stop GE F404 engine deliveries to India, thereby disrupting or halting production of its long awaited Tejas Mk1A fighter.
So,we agree on China but i dont think India can be pressured with the engines.
@Nilgiri bro,shed some light.
 

Spitfire9

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You know there is a pipeline from Russia to China,yes?
Gas and oil pipeline.


So,we agree on China but i dont think India can be pressured with the engines.
@Nilgiri bro,shed some light.
Yes. I thought there was an oil pipeline. I have no idea which companies' oil is pumped down the pipeline or how much.
 

TR_123456

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Yes. I thought there was an oil pipeline. I have no idea which companies' oil is pumped down the pipeline or or how much.
Oil and gas,the company doesnt matter.
Who will ever know how much is pumped through these pipelines?
 

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