Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Soldier30]

Footage of special forces from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine landing from UH-60A Black Hawk helicopters on the outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, known in Ukraine as Pokrovsk. The UH-60A Black Hawk military transport helicopter was developed in the United States in 1974 to replace the Bell UH-1 helicopters. Ukraine operates two UH-60A helicopters. The presumed purpose of the Ukrainian special forces landing was to relieve encircled Ukrainian units in Pokrovsk and restore key logistics links with them. The special forces advanced no more than 500 meters before being attacked by Russian FPV drones near the Mebelstroy factory and a gas station. The subsequent fate of the Ukrainian unit is still unknown; only 10 personnel were deployed. The video has been truncated.

 

[Passenger]

Plus joint arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Yesterday, it was reported that the Pentagon approved the sale of Tomahawk missiles. Now it's up to Trump.
True, just a week ago, Trump rejected Ukraine's offer. But that doesn't mean anything; another week is ahea
Trump is completely unpredictable.

I bet even if Trump changes his mind, agree to provide Tomahawk to Ukraine, the amount will not be too many to change the situation.
Everbodys know he has a dozen of staff officer who ask him to keep enough missle store for "sometimes".

 

[Spitfire9]

I bet even if Trump changes his mind, agree to provide Tomahawk to Ukraine, the amount will not be too many to change the situation.
Everbodys know he has a dozen of staff officer who ask him to keep enough missle store for "sometimes".

Ukraine is making quite a few long range Flamingo cruise missiles. With a 1150kg warhead, should one or two get through Russian air defences to attack an oil refinery (for example), damage is likely to be very severe.

Not stealthy. Apparently not very accurate. Many times the cost of an attack drone. But Ukrainian, so it can be used to attack whatever Ukraine chooses. Because of its range, Ukraine can strike much further into Russia. Russia will need to defend many more targets than hitherto.

 

[Soldier30]

FPV drones trapped Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in a house. A scene from a battle between Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk. The video shows the soldiers taking cover in a house from Russian FPV drone strikes. Judging by the video, Russian artillery and FPV drones are actively operating in the Pokrovsk direction.

 

[Soldier30]

During the fighting in Ukraine, the first ricochet of a Russian bomb, presumably a FAB-500, or according to some sources, a FAB-1500, was recorded. The bomb was dropped by a Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber. The video shows the bomb ricocheting off the ground and flying several hundred meters. The location of the filming was not reported.

 

[Spitfire9]

A BBC report on Russia's economic outlook based to some extent on expert opinions expressed earlier this year. Report is dated June 23rd 2025.

Russia's economy is down but not out

The country's economy has been surprisingly resilient but there are underlying problems.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think that data released so far this year show that the forecasts of Russian and western experts made earlier this year for the Russian economy are proving to be too optimistic. The most recent central bank forecast for 2025 GDP growth places it at 1% or less in contrast to 2024 GDP growth of more than 4%. Since the BBC report featured above, Lukoil and Rosneft have been sanctioned, which should depress growth still further. My guess is that Russian GDP growth will become negative from Q1/Q2 2026. MIC production rose enormously in 2023 and 2924. That growth appears to have stopped, possibly because MIC factories reached full production at the end of 2024.

 

[contricusc]

My guess is that Russian GDP growth will become negative from Q1/Q2 2026. MIC production rose enormously in 2023 and 2024. That growth appears to have stopped, possibly because MIC factories reached full production at the end of 2024.

My experience on how economic data is reported in totalitarian countries tells me that their GDP growth has been negative since the war started, and only fake numbers and lies have made it look positive.

Remember that this is a Russia that wants to become the second Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union, reporting lies was the norm. Considering the current political climate in Russia, where people fly off windows if they fall out of grace, the incentive to missreport is huge.

Who would want to tell the stark reality and fly off a window, when reporting some lies that sound good would keep him alive for now?

 

[Spitfire9]

My experience on how economic data is reported in totalitarian countries tells me that their GDP growth has been negative since the war started, and only fake numbers and lies have made it look positive.

Remember that this is a Russia that wants to become the second Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union, reporting lies was the norm. Considering the current political climate in Russia, where people fly off windows if they fall out of grace, the incentive to missreport is huge.

Who would want to tell the stark reality and fly off a window, when reporting some lies that sound good would keep him alive for now?

Without checking which, Rosstat (or other official sources) have a tendency to stop publishing some economic data when the numbers look bad. Some cannot easily be hidden - bank base rate, MOEX share prices etc.

PS Falsifying numbers connected to economic performance might make Putin look better to some Russian citizens (who believe what they hear on state-controlled TV) but it doesn't change the reality of what is actually happening in the economy.