Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Russia is losing money if it sells oil at $30 discount to Brent prices. If they actually do that, it means they are simply buying Orban with cheap oil as a payment for his support and sabotage of EU cohesion.

Indeed.

If Russia exported 5 million bpd at a $30 discount to the world crude price instead of perhaps at a $10 discount (I guess) on sales to China, India, Turkiye etc

- Russian revenue from exports would drop by over $70 billion a year. $70 billion a year is nearly half of what the Russian government spends on the war
- Russian GDP would fall by nearly 3%
- pumping oil from some high cost fields might become loss making for the oil companies concerned
- Putin might force oil companies to pump loss making crude so he continues getting his revenue for the war
- Russian oil companies might start going bankrupt (and be nationalised for next to nothing)

So I would favour dropping the sanctions on Russian oil companies unless they sold at a price higher than a capped price of world market price -$30. Let Orban buy at the same price as everyone else . He would no longer be receiving special treatment compared to other customers, removing the financial gain motive for Hungary to support Russia against the EU.

 

[EsterVirga]

Combined political pressure from the EU and the US will work but steps must be bold enough to beat Putin.

 

[Iskander]

Combined political pressure from the EU and the US will work but steps must be bold enough to beat Putin.

Plus joint arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Yesterday, it was reported that the Pentagon approved the sale of Tomahawk missiles. Now it's up to Trump.
True, just a week ago, Trump rejected Ukraine's offer. But that doesn't mean anything; another week is ahea
Trump is completely unpredictable.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of special forces from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine landing from UH-60A Black Hawk helicopters on the outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, known in Ukraine as Pokrovsk. The UH-60A Black Hawk military transport helicopter was developed in the United States in 1974 to replace the Bell UH-1 helicopters. Ukraine operates two UH-60A helicopters. The presumed purpose of the Ukrainian special forces landing was to relieve encircled Ukrainian units in Pokrovsk and restore key logistics links with them. The special forces advanced no more than 500 meters before being attacked by Russian FPV drones near the Mebelstroy factory and a gas station. The subsequent fate of the Ukrainian unit is still unknown; only 10 personnel were deployed. The video has been truncated.

 

[Passenger]

Plus joint arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Yesterday, it was reported that the Pentagon approved the sale of Tomahawk missiles. Now it's up to Trump.
True, just a week ago, Trump rejected Ukraine's offer. But that doesn't mean anything; another week is ahea
Trump is completely unpredictable.

I bet even if Trump changes his mind, agree to provide Tomahawk to Ukraine, the amount will not be too many to change the situation.
Everbodys know he has a dozen of staff officer who ask him to keep enough missle store for "sometimes".

 

[Spitfire9]

I bet even if Trump changes his mind, agree to provide Tomahawk to Ukraine, the amount will not be too many to change the situation.
Everbodys know he has a dozen of staff officer who ask him to keep enough missle store for "sometimes".

Ukraine is making quite a few long range Flamingo cruise missiles. With a 1150kg warhead, should one or two get through Russian air defences to attack an oil refinery (for example), damage is likely to be very severe.

Not stealthy. Apparently not very accurate. Many times the cost of an attack drone. But Ukrainian, so it can be used to attack whatever Ukraine chooses. Because of its range, Ukraine can strike much further into Russia. Russia will need to defend many more targets than hitherto.

 

[Soldier30]

FPV drones trapped Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in a house. A scene from a battle between Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk. The video shows the soldiers taking cover in a house from Russian FPV drone strikes. Judging by the video, Russian artillery and FPV drones are actively operating in the Pokrovsk direction.

 

[Soldier30]

During the fighting in Ukraine, the first ricochet of a Russian bomb, presumably a FAB-500, or according to some sources, a FAB-1500, was recorded. The bomb was dropped by a Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber. The video shows the bomb ricocheting off the ground and flying several hundred meters. The location of the filming was not reported.

 

[Spitfire9]

A BBC report on Russia's economic outlook based to some extent on expert opinions expressed earlier this year. Report is dated June 23rd 2025.

Russia's economy is down but not out

The country's economy has been surprisingly resilient but there are underlying problems.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think that data released so far this year show that the forecasts of Russian and western experts made earlier this year for the Russian economy are proving to be too optimistic. The most recent central bank forecast for 2025 GDP growth places it at 1% or less in contrast to 2024 GDP growth of more than 4%. Since the BBC report featured above, Lukoil and Rosneft have been sanctioned, which should depress growth still further. My guess is that Russian GDP growth will become negative from Q1/Q2 2026. MIC production rose enormously in 2023 and 2924. That growth appears to have stopped, possibly because MIC factories reached full production at the end of 2024.

 

[contricusc]

My guess is that Russian GDP growth will become negative from Q1/Q2 2026. MIC production rose enormously in 2023 and 2024. That growth appears to have stopped, possibly because MIC factories reached full production at the end of 2024.

My experience on how economic data is reported in totalitarian countries tells me that their GDP growth has been negative since the war started, and only fake numbers and lies have made it look positive.

Remember that this is a Russia that wants to become the second Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union, reporting lies was the norm. Considering the current political climate in Russia, where people fly off windows if they fall out of grace, the incentive to missreport is huge.

Who would want to tell the stark reality and fly off a window, when reporting some lies that sound good would keep him alive for now?

 

[Spitfire9]

My experience on how economic data is reported in totalitarian countries tells me that their GDP growth has been negative since the war started, and only fake numbers and lies have made it look positive.

Remember that this is a Russia that wants to become the second Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union, reporting lies was the norm. Considering the current political climate in Russia, where people fly off windows if they fall out of grace, the incentive to missreport is huge.

Who would want to tell the stark reality and fly off a window, when reporting some lies that sound good would keep him alive for now?

Without checking which, Rosstat (or other official sources) have a tendency to stop publishing some economic data when the numbers look bad. Some cannot easily be hidden - bank base rate, MOEX share prices etc.

PS Falsifying numbers connected to economic performance might make Putin look better to some Russian citizens (who believe what they hear on state-controlled TV) but it doesn't change the reality of what is actually happening in the economy.

 

[contricusc]

Without checking which, Rosstat (or other official sources) have a tendency to stop publishing some economic data when the numbers look bad. Some cannot easily be hidden - bank base rate, MOEX share prices etc.

The truth is that any GDP stats we now have from Russia are estimates made without much concrete and credible data. The IMF makes some estimates based on the little data available, as Rosstat publishes less data than before the war.

And everyone knows how good the IMF is at valuing an economy. They thought Argentina was booming just weeks before it got bankrupt. The same will happen with Russia. It is impossible for Russia’s economy to have grown since 2022, considering what happened. My bet is that their economy is about 20% to 25% down compared to 2021. Speaking of economic growth is hilarious, when refineries are burning, you have capital controls, people can’t withdraw their foreign currency from the banks, exports have collapsed and there are regions where gasoline is scarce.

 

[Spitfire9]

Turkiye reducing purchases of Russian crude and oil products

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Harpia-A1 and Geran-2 kamikaze drones striking Ukrainian trucks carrying fuel. The video was filmed on November 2 at a truck stop in the Odessa region, near Izmail. The aftermath of the drone strike is shown at the end of the video.

 

[Relic]

Germany has delivered two additional Patriot Batteries to Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have finished training on them and they are now deployed Ukraine. Germany has an agreement in place with USA to expedite the backfilling of the units for Germany's domestic security.

Ukraine has now received at least 10 Patriot air defense batteries, at least 12 additional launch units and an unknown number of additional Radars.

In further news, Germany has increased 2026 funding for Ukraine to $9.8 Billion usd, up $3.5 Billion usd from the initial projection.

https://www.reuters.com/world/germany-plans-boost-ukraine-aid-by-some-3-bln-euros-2026-says-source-2025-11-04/

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian FAB-3000 bomb striking a temporary deployment site of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The video was filmed near the village of Kostiantynivka. The bomb was dropped by a Su-34 aircraft. Technical information about the FAB-3000 bomb is available in the link to the video in the comments. This spring, servicemen from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade recorded a statement in which they complai

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Kh-38 missile striking a temporary deployment site, presumably belonging to the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The video was filmed near the village of Seversk. The Kh-38 precision-guided missile attack was carried out by a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber. Judging by the video, the Kh-38 missile completely destroyed the building.

Kh-38 missile overview

 

[Soldier30]

Footage has been published of a confrontation between a Russian soldier from the 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment and Ukrainian FPV drones. In the video, seven Ukrainian FPV drones attempt to attack the Russian soldier. Judging by the video, the soldier is wearing additional protective gear. Incredibly, the soldier dodged the drones and remained unharmed even after being hit by one. The video demonstrates the widespread use of drones in combat in Ukraine. It is still unknown where the video was filmed or why the unarmed soldier ended up alone in the open.

 

[Soldier30]

Rare footage of the Russian RBU-6000 hybrid 212mm rocket launcher mounted on a truck in action in Ukraine. The video shows the RBU-6000 being used to strike Ukrainian army fortifications located in the urban area of Chasov Yar. The RBU-6000 hybrid is used by the Russian 98th Guards Svirskaya Airborne Division. The RBU-6000 is currently being used to suppress Ukrainian army firing positions near the villages of Verolyubovka, Podolskoye, and Chervone in the Konstantinovsky operational direction.

 

[Soldier30]

A high-quality video of a combat mission involving a Russian 203mm Malka self-propelled howitzer in the Donbas. In the video, the Malka self-propelled howitzer fires at a temporary Ukrainian army deployment point in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, presumably near Pokrovsk. The 2S7M Malka self-propelled howitzer was developed in the USSR in 1986.