Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[OPTIMUS]

Quite true.

You did somewhat suggest that at some point 'the Turks' would 'sort out' (my words) those countries, though.

Spitfire9@,

I have no idea how you understand things when you read what's written.

I just wrote, "here's where the Turks come into play."

The problem is, the Turks don't want to play there. They want to "take care of things," as you nicely put it, thousands of kilometers away. For that, the Turks first need Egypt, then Somalia. Somalia is more important, indeed, for the Turks.

The Turks want to be brought into play through a country where the Greeks keep their fears alive. And a certain state exploits that. And this certain state wants to mess with the Turks in Somalia and Sudan, and for that, it uses the UAE.

The Turks are very concerned that Zelensky will order the sinking of a ship operating under the Turkish flag by the "Ukrainian Army." In that case, Article 5 would have to be applied, which would make things very complex. Will Zelensky give this order to the Ukrainian Army? Yes, he will. Whether the Ukrainian Army will carry out the order...? We're not sure about that.

If the Turks had a major objective in the Mediterranean basin, they would have long since raised objections regarding French troops in Cyprus. As for that particular state—it is considered a Christian-Catholic affair. The Turks see no issue there. We will see more Christian-Catholic troops in Cyprus in the coming years.

All the ships being built for the Turkish Navy and for a few states in the region tell us that there is already a clear understanding of what the Turks intend to do. Only one state is acting as a disruptive force. That matter is being dealt with, too.

The question one has to ask oneself is:

Why are air defense systems being deployed to Turkey?
And they are there to stay, as this constitutes a permanent operational measure—specifically involving NATO states. There are currently four systems: two Italian, one Spanish, and one German (I am leaving the American systems out of the equation for now).

Why is the Turkish Navy suddenly operating with large naval formations in deep-water environments? Many forum members have wondered what business the Turks have participating in NATO exercises in Nordic and Baltic waters with such a large number of ships. As far as I know, the Turkish vessels were the only ones able to maintain full operational capability in very adverse weather conditions, whereas all other NATO ships operated under limitations.

The question to ask is "What is going on?"—not "What business do the Turks have there?"

 

[FiReFTW]

A big bully grabs some of its smaller neighbour's land in 2014. Europe disapproves but does little to help. The big bully tries to grab the rest of its smaller neighbour's land in 2022. This time Europe decides to help. For the first time the big bully is confronted by Europe and, now, after 4 years is in deep trouble.

Yes, supporting Ukraine has cost Europe dearly but

1 it won't have a big bully on its doorstep, one that grabbed Ukraine
2 the now not so big bully won't feel confident it can grab further neighbours' at little cost to itself
3 defending Ukraine against Russian aggression is not a crippling expense to Europe
4 attacking Ukraine is a crippling expense to Russia

Unlike you, I don't see Europe going down the drain. Russia, yes - the data available show that is the direction in which Russia is going.

Even if all the 4 points you say are true its done, Europe made its point, Russia got a bloody nose, time to pack up and end this once and for all.

You said it yourself, this is clearly hurting Europe, so why keep hurting? Europe should take care of its own people and its own problems without willingly hurting itself (which it has done MULTIPLE times in the past 20-30 years, many of which has nothing to do with Russia even).

Surely you don't think that keeping on this path forever is a good idea for Europe, you can't possibly be that stubborn or ignorant right?
Russia won't back down here, this war can go on for 10 more years, maybe more, you know how many billions and billions of euros are going to go down the drain?

Its time to settle this war once and for all and put an end to it, get it over with ASAP, and then start looking for our own interests when it comes to economy and start doing some rapid changes and solutions.

You are quite blind if you don't see that Europe is in big trouble if we don't do some big things soon, we have a whole lot of issues and problems that will get worse and worse in the next couple of decades, its now or never.

 

[OPTIMUS]

Europe is playing the overtime periods. The Turks are the referees. But it’s the Americans who hold the whistles!

 

[Spitfire9]

You said it yourself, this is clearly hurting Europe, so why keep hurting? Europe should take care of its own people and its own problems without willingly hurting itself (which it has done MULTIPLE times in the past 20-30 years, many of which has nothing to do with Russia even).

Surely you don't think that keeping on this path forever is a good idea for Europe, you can't possibly be that stubborn or ignorant right?

Russia's attack has damaged the world economically. Imagine Russian aggression had been successful and Russia had taken over Ukraine. Don't you think Putin would not be encouraged to plan to take over parts or all of other neighbouring countries to the west of Russia?

The situation has changed considerably in the last couple of years. Weapons supplied to Ukraine no longer come with the proviso that they cannot be used to attack Russia. Ukraine has built a weapons industry with which to attack Russia with drones and missiles. Those weapons are causing serious damage to Russia.

Russia has been slowly destroying itself economically and financially. You query Europe staying on the path it is on forever. To me that is just about inconceivable since Russia staying in one piece forever economically and financially is just about inconceivable.

Who is the stubborn one here? Putin has been stubbornly continuing to prosecute a war where the prospects of defeating Ukraine - prospects that held some credibility in 2022 - have long disappeared. All that is left to Russia is to continue inflicting damage on Ukraine - but receiving continuous severe damage to itself - until the money runs out.

So I hope that desperate, fixated, obsessed Putin carries on with his war until he has comprehensively devastated his country. IMO he foolishly annexed Kerson and Zaporitzia under Russian law and is now stuck with not being able to stop the war without leaving those 'parts of Russia' in enemy hands. IIRC he cannot do that in Russian law, so he's condemned himself to fighting to the bitter end.

 

[mehmed beg]

I believe that France has more than enough recruits , in fact many are turned away because of lack of equipment.
In reality I don't see why Europe spends so much money the type of hardware that they do.
I think it would be better to spend for the navy and air force developments. I guess that some people need to make money.
Of course the majority of those 100s of billions will be spent idiotically as usual.
Afterall these are military matters and there is no any hierarchy or coordinated doctrine
As of Russia, even in the case of the peace with Ukraine, in few years they will try their luck somewhere else, like Khazastan.

 

[Saithan]

Why do you people who argument these things always say "Yes its getting worse but its not as bad as in Russia"?

I am seriously curious and wondering about this logic of yours, because it makes no sense to me.

I don't give a crap about how things are in Russia..... or in China..... or in USA..... or in South Africa.... that has NOTHING to do with me? I only care how things are in the places I live in, thats my priority and my only care.

And the fact is we (and in we I mean Europe) have alot of issues and problems and things are getting worse instead of better.

The economy is stagnant, prices going up, housing going up.. those are all facts... add to that the energy crisis and problems we have, the non competitiveness and the list goes on... Europe should focus on solving those things and improving those things not sending billions and billions away to Ukraine (non member of EU).

And before you accuse me of wanting to throw Ukraine under the bus (because I can already see it), I never said that, what I say is that a deal should be made even if it means sacrificing land and giving in to some Russian demands, there should be a clear plan and agreement that no further military action can be possible in the future, DONE... but the war should end, its no good for us, can't you understand that?

I visited Your country last summer. Quite expensive, and people living there close to border with France goes on shopping trips to France and there is a limit on how much you can bring back. The pasport control in the bus. We also went through that.

Switzerland has some issues, how you solve it. I don't know.

Housing, more public housing could be the solution ?

Perhaps Europe should erect laws in place to prevent US hedge fonds and others from buying housing in Europe. They could use all that "money" to pay of US debt.

As I see it US is increasing its debt, while the money printed is used to buy/invest in sound healthy countries where the population is ending up paying off US debt through the money that flows back to US.

To a certain degree.

 

[contricusc]

People like you in high positions is EXACTLY the reason why Europe is going down the drain.

It’s the other way around. If there were people like me in high positions in Europe, we would see high economic growth, low regulations and booming investments in Europe, while Russia would have been defeated by now.

But unfortunately Europe is led by weak socialists who only care about preserving the welfare state at the expense of the long term prospects of the continent.

The only good thing they did lately was not abandoing Ukraine, and even that, they did it very slowly and with excessive fear and limitations. We’re four years in this war, and Europe is still not pumping out drones and missiles like it should have.

After four years since Russia invaded, Europe should have been producing upwards of one million mid and long range drones per year, to be able to saturate Russia with thousands of daily strikes, foricing it to capitulate. It is a disgrace that Ukraine outproduces the entire continent when it comes to drone production. You have a small country under constant bombardment producing more drones than a wealthy continent at peace.

If every medium and big European country produced jusy 50k long range drones per year, Russia would have been defeated by now.

And before you say that would be impossible, Ukraine produces around 70k long range drones per year right now, while being under constant attacks.

A country like Germany should be able to easily produce 200k.

 

[Saithan]

Even if all the 4 points you say are true its done, Europe made its point, Russia got a bloody nose, time to pack up and end this once and for all.

You said it yourself, this is clearly hurting Europe, so why keep hurting? Europe should take care of its own people and its own problems without willingly hurting itself (which it has done MULTIPLE times in the past 20-30 years, many of which has nothing to do with Russia even).

Surely you don't think that keeping on this path forever is a good idea for Europe, you can't possibly be that stubborn or ignorant right?
Russia won't back down here, this war can go on for 10 more years, maybe more, you know how many billions and billions of euros are going to go down the drain?

Its time to settle this war once and for all and put an end to it, get it over with ASAP, and then start looking for our own interests when it comes to economy and start doing some rapid changes and solutions.

You are quite blind if you don't see that Europe is in big trouble if we don't do some big things soon, we have a whole lot of issues and problems that will get worse and worse in the next couple of decades, its now or never.

Sorry, but you sound like a young person who is more worried about his own pocket and future in the country of your residence.

You know what other people do when they are faced with unbearable living situations. They migrate.

How people from Middle East migrate because of horrible conditions and through ways and borders they have to cross in fear. You could just pack your stuff and move to any European country if you wished to. You won't face Frontex.

 

[Spitfire9]

Irish ex-diplomat who worked as a diplomat for the UK in Ukraine claims that nearly 2,000 Russian fuel trucks were destroyed in the 4 days before being interviewed.

It is not surprising to me that Crimea is suffering from fuel shortage.

Is the 2,000 figure credible? Not entirely but if he is asking friends in Ukraine for data, it could be. His friends are not likely to simply pass on Ukrainian government propaganda.

I believe that no fuel is currently being offered for sale to civilians with ration cards. All is reserved for military and government use.

 

[MaciekRS]

Another good hit by Ukrainians (russians are saying Storm Shadows were used)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2068988586779705805

 

[FiReFTW]

Sorry, but you sound like a young person who is more worried about his own pocket and future in the country of your residence.

You know what other people do when they are faced with unbearable living situations. They migrate.

How people from Middle East migrate because of horrible conditions and through ways and borders they have to cross in fear. You could just pack your stuff and move to any European country if you wished to. You won't face Frontex.

And what point exactly are you trying to make here? Of course I care about my own pocket and future lol, isn't that logical? I thought every somewhat smart and reasonable person worries about his own life and future, or do you not care about yourself?

 

[FiReFTW]

It’s the other way around. If there were people like me in high positions in Europe, we would see high economic growth, low regulations and booming investments in Europe, while Russia would have been defeated by now.

But unfortunately Europe is led by weak socialists who only care about preserving the welfare state at the expense of the long term prospects of the continent.

The only good thing they did lately was not abandoing Ukraine, and even that, they did it very slowly and with excessive fear and limitations. We’re four years in this war, and Europe is still not pumping out drones and missiles like it should have.

After four years since Russia invaded, Europe should have been producing upwards of one million mid and long range drones per year, to be able to saturate Russia with thousands of daily strikes, foricing it to capitulate. It is a disgrace that Ukraine outproduces the entire continent when it comes to drone production. You have a small country under constant bombardment producing more drones than a wealthy continent at peace.

If every medium and big European country produced jusy 50k long range drones per year, Russia would have been defeated by now.

And before you say that would be impossible, Ukraine produces around 70k long range drones per year right now, while being under constant attacks.

A country like Germany should be able to easily produce 200k.

You are completely deluded, so in your opinion Europe should massively produce military equipment and drones and spend billions and billions for that when the money is needed in many other areas, and then you say that you would solve Europe's problems with that and Europe would see high economic growth.... are you even listening to yourself?

But of course its easy to talk when you don't even live in Europe and couldn't care less about the people here.

 

[FiReFTW]

Russia's attack has damaged the world economically. Imagine Russian aggression had been successful and Russia had taken over Ukraine. Don't you think Putin would not be encouraged to plan to take over parts or all of other neighbouring countries to the west of Russia?

The situation has changed considerably in the last couple of years. Weapons supplied to Ukraine no longer come with the proviso that they cannot be used to attack Russia. Ukraine has built a weapons industry with which to attack Russia with drones and missiles. Those weapons are causing serious damage to Russia.

Russia has been slowly destroying itself economically and financially. You query Europe staying on the path it is on forever. To me that is just about inconceivable since Russia staying in one piece forever economically and financially is just about inconceivable.

Who is the stubborn one here? Putin has been stubbornly continuing to prosecute a war where the prospects of defeating Ukraine - prospects that held some credibility in 2022 - have long disappeared. All that is left to Russia is to continue inflicting damage on Ukraine - but receiving continuous severe damage to itself - until the money runs out.

So I hope that desperate, fixated, obsessed Putin carries on with his war until he has comprehensively devastated his country. IMO he foolishly annexed Kerson and Zaporitzia under Russian law and is now stuck with not being able to stop the war without leaving those 'parts of Russia' in enemy hands. IIRC he cannot do that in Russian law, so he's condemned himself to fighting to the bitter end.

What countries would Putin attack had he been successful in Ukraine? He would never attack any NATO countries, thats just madness and fear mongering, its beyond stupid and crazy.

You underestimate Putin, he will keep at it forever in this war, he can't sacrifice so many people and then just give up and leave, and yes its hurting Russia bad, but Europe is also hurting, I care about Europe I don't care about Russia, I want whats best for us and whats best for me, this war isn't it and needs to be stopped by all means possible.

The only thing you seem to not be capable of accepting is that the longer this war goes on the more its hurting YOU and US in Europe, or maybe you realize it but are just fine with that, in that case we are just of different opinions on this, I care about myself and Europe.

 

[Saithan]

What countries would Putin attack had he been successful in Ukraine? He would never attack any NATO countries, thats just madness and fear mongering, its beyond stupid and crazy.

You underestimate Putin, he will keep at it forever in this war, he can't sacrifice so many people and then just give up and leave, and yes its hurting Russia bad, but Europe is also hurting, I care about Europe I don't care about Russia, I want whats best for us and whats best for me, this war isn't it and needs to be stopped by all means possible.

The only thing you seem to not be capable of accepting is that the longer this war goes on the more its hurting YOU and US in Europe, or maybe you realize it but are just fine with that, in that case we are just of different opinions on this, I care about myself and Europe.

That's quite pathetic. You like most in Europe have no idea of what hurting really is. You can only project it to your financial situation, and whine about it.

If it's so unbearable then move away. Start life over in a new country. Would be a good experience for you. It would put things into a perspective.

 

[Spitfire9]

What countries would Putin attack had he been successful in Ukraine? He would never attack any NATO countries, thats just madness and fear mongering, its beyond stupid and crazy.

You underestimate Putin, he will keep at it forever in this war, he can't sacrifice so many people and then just give up and leave, and yes its hurting Russia bad, but Europe is also hurting, I care about Europe I don't care about Russia, I want whats best for us and whats best for me, this war isn't it and needs to be stopped by all means possible.

The only thing you seem to not be capable of accepting is that the longer this war goes on the more its hurting YOU and US in Europe, or maybe you realize it but are just fine with that, in that case we are just of different opinions on this, I care about myself and Europe.

The answer to your first question: Moldova.

Other countries:
Any other non-NATO country bordering CIS with an unfriendly government

What will happen with NATO is unclear. US may leave NATO. US has already said it will not protect NATO states that 'do not pay their way'.

You think the war should stop? So do I, but not unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Countries that attack other countries posing no threat to them should not be rewarded by gaining territory in a peace treaty. It encourages stronger countries to attack weaker countries. It is a dangerous form of appeasement.

To me supporting Ukraine is a way of reducing the risk of further conflict with Russia in the future. A broken Russia financially and economically is less of a threat than a victorious Russia encouraged by success to look for its next victory. Putin is busy breaking Russia. Long live the Czar!

 

[contricusc]

You are completely deluded, so in your opinion Europe should massively produce military equipment and drones and spend billions and billions for that when the money is needed in many other areas, and then you say that you would solve Europe's problems with that and Europe would see high economic growth.... are you even listening to yourself?

Europe’s problems are not because of a lack of money. Europe is wealthy. It has plenty of money to fix its problems. What it lacks is the will to do it, and a coherent strategy.

Europe doesn’t have to choose between supporting Ukraine and fixing its problems. It can easily do both.

If Europe invested more in its own arms industry, it would create additional high paying jobs for qualified people like engineers and IT specialists, as well as blue collar jobs in manufacturing. The cost? Almost nothing.

You see, money is just a convention. Those billions of euros you keep hearing about, they are created out of thin air, by inventing a new credit that is added to already bloated balance sheets. It’s just accounting. Europe doesn’t need to take money from its population to finance Ukraine, because it is borrowing it.

You will ask, then why isn‘t Europe creating money to fix those other problems, like housing and healthcare? The thing very few people understand is that creating money out of thin air has different effects, depending on two major factors: who does it, and what does it do with it.

If a small country prints money to pay salaries and pensions, the immediate effect would be high inflation and currency devaluation. However, when Japan prints trillions of Yen just to rollover its debts, or when the US did repeated rounds of QE, you didn’t see the Yen or the dollar collapse, and neither rampant inflation. That’s because the money was not directed to consumption.

What creates inflation is money given to people in the form of wages, pensions or welfare payments. This is because that money immediately translates into additional demand for goods and services, raising the price. And when the additional demand boosts imports, it also devalues the currency.

But when the newly printed money is directed towards weapons production, the effect on inflation is negligible. Other than the jobs created in the sector, where some people earn higher wages and can spend more, the largest part of the spending goes itnto weapons production that end up blowing things in Russia.

The money just add-up in an accounting balance sheet, while Russia burns. Never in history a region/country had the opportunity to defeat one of its greatest adversaries by just adding numbers in a balance sheet without sacrificing anything else. Only people who are economically illiterate would pass such an opportunity.

The only cost for Europe if it decided to build more weapons would be a boost in the import of components, which could theoretically have a negative effect on the value of the Euro. But at this point, with so much Euro denominated debt hanging over Europe, and with such high wages keeping competitivity low, a little devaluation of the Euro would be more than welcome, especially if it came together with reindustrialization and technological research.

But of course its easy to talk when you don't even live in Europe and couldn't care less about the people here.

I come back to Europe every year, and I care a lot about it. And because I care about it, I don’t want my country to become Russia’s neighbour. I want Ukraine to recover its territory, as a buffer against the Russian threat. I want Transnistria to be disinfected, and the best case scenario would be for Russia to be expelled from Kaliningrad and for Belarus to be removed from Russia’s influence, and turned into a future EU member.

The more Russia is forced to retreat and more Eastern European countries join the EU, the better postioned my country becomes. I don’t want Romania to remain at NATO’s and EU’s periphery, with all the risks resulting from that. If Moldova and Ukraine would join, and Russia would be expelled from Crimea and the Donbass, Romania would suddenly be closer to Central Europe and further away from the periphery.

It’s easy for you to not care about the Russian threat, because Switzerland sits comfortably between friendly European countries. But for Romanians, Poles, Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, Norwegians or Finns, the Russian threat is real, and we want Russia to be torn into smaller states no longer capable to threaten us. It is pure geopolitics.

 

[contricusc]

You underestimate Putin, he will keep at it forever in this war, he can't sacrifice so many people and then just give up and leave

That’s the best part. He is trapped and his decisions are distorted by the sunken cost fallacy. He will ruin Russia just because he already sacrificed a lot, for nothing.

If Putin were a smart man, he would negotiate a peace now, giving back the stolen lands to Ukraine, and putting an end to the daily drone barages that destroy Russia’s remaining industry and refining capacity.

But he is too proud to do that, so he would keep going while his country burns. Russia is a big gas station disguised as a country, When it no longer has working refineries, it will have to cut down on oil production, and start soending the cash earned from crude exports to buy gasoline and diesel, effectively bankrupting the country.

If the war lasts for a few more years, Russia will become as “wealthy” as Mali or Yemen. Under such circumstances, it is inevitable that it would disintegrate into smaller countries, based on ethnic lines.

The Soviet Union disintegrated because it was bankrupt. The same fate awaits the Russian Federation.

and yes its hurting Russia bad, but Europe is also hurting

How is this hurting Europe exactly? I haven’t seen factories or refineries burning in Europe (other than Ukraine, of course). The war has actually created new factories in Europe, that did not exist before the war.

Europe is now moving towards having its own satellite and communications independence, building its own long range missiles, and improving its drone technology. There’s nothing bad about that.

And crude oil remains almost half the price it was in 2007, despite the wars in Russia and Iran.

I mean, almost twenty years have passed, and oil is cheaper. Everything else is twice as expensive, yet oil remains cheper. Poor Russians….

 

[TR_123456]

If Europe invested more in its own arms industry, it would create additional high paying jobs for qualified people like engineers and IT specialists, as well as blue collar jobs in manufacturing. The cost? Almost nothing.

The problem for Europe is the cost of energie,now that the chaep Russian gas/oil is gone.
Everything Europe currently produces is expensive.

 

[contricusc]

The problem for Europe is the cost of energie,now that the chaep Russian gas/oil is gone.
Everything Europe currently produces is expensive.

The cost of energy is important only for industries with high energy intensity like chemicals, cement production or fertilizers. For most manufacturing, it is not a decisive input cost.

Europe’s manufacturing suffers far more because of regulation, high wages and labor unions.

 

[Oublious]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-struck-russian-missile-electronics-plant-2026-06-22/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20June%2022%20(Reuters),%E2%80%8Cdozens%20injured%20in%20the%20attack.

Ukraine hit a electonic factory wher they make chips for missiles, not with drones but fighters .