Analysis Unmanned Maritime Systems: Advancing Naval Practices Through Futuristic Technologies and Distributed Operational Paradigms

Prologue​

Undoubtedly, unmanned systems have become the focal point of contemporary discussions surrounding military applications. This discourse spans ethical considerations, operational efficiency, and concerns regarding security. A pivotal aspect of this dialogue involves evaluating their effectiveness in anti-symmetric warfare and their ability to reduce operational costs in tasks such as monitoring, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and precision strike missions when juxtaposed with traditional manned systems.

While it can be asserted that unmanned systems may still lack the adaptability inherent in manned counterparts in various domains, the narrative takes a different turn when considering naval applications.

The distributed approach proves to be both practical and significant, representing a paradigm yet to be embraced by any navy in the immediate future. However, it offers a glimpse into the trajectory that the future of naval operations is likely to follow.

The distributed approach, akin to the principles observed in contemporary distributed computing techniques employed in our computers, represents a departure from a centralized configuration. In traditional shared setups, cores are linked with a common memory allocation, analogous to the centralized structure of a ship. Conversely, distributed computation, likened to the individual allocation of memory to cores, has become pervasive in various applications, providing a redundant and robust scheme, often without our conscious recognition. In this naval context, each processor, core, or process can be conceptualized as an individual entity, highlighting their respective dependencies and independence within the overall operations.

A schematic illustration depicting serial-parallel deployment in the context of parallel/distributed computing.

In the upcoming sections, we will comprehensively address the risks, advantages, and the burgeoning prominence of unmanned marine vehicles. Each aspect will be examined separately, with a dedicated focus on their applications in commonly referred maritime operations, including Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), Anti-Surface Warfare (ASuW), and Anti-Air Warfare (AAW).

Risks​

In summary, the primary risks associated with operating an Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) encompass potential challenges such as loss of communication, damage handling, and events related to flooding and fire, all of which may necessitate human intervention. While certain aspects, such as the automation of systems for fire detection and suppression, flood detection, and pump management, can be practically addressed, mitigating the risk of theft or confiscation that may lead to information leakage poses a more complex challenge with limited available solutions. Integrating a kill switch or a mechanism to intentionally disable or sink the vessel could serve as the ultimate safety measure in scenarios where the loss of communication or jamming poses a significant threat. However, it's imperative that the system itself possesses the capability to autonomously make such decisions up to a predetermined level of reliability in situations where human intervention might be compromised or delayed. This introduces a crucial aspect of machine autonomy and decision-making, demanding a careful balance between safeguarding the unmanned vessel and minimizing the risk of unintended consequences.

Advantages​

In essence, the majority of advantages associated with Unmanned Marine Vehicles (UMVs) emanate from a singular source: the absence of human presence on board. This key factor contributes significantly to the efficiency, adaptability, and overall transformative potential of UMVs across diverse maritime operations.

1. Marine platforms, particularly ships, remain relatively enigmatic to the broader community. Consider, for a moment, the intricate role of HVAC systems on naval platforms—critical for cooling electronics, radars, and maintaining a comfortable environment for humans. However, the burden on HVAC systems predominantly arises from human factors, necessitating air quality monitoring and control.
2. Moreover, the electricity demand on these platforms, again rooted in human activities such as lighting, cooking, and cleaning, presents challenges in predictability compared to the more schedule-driven demands of machinery and electronics. In stressful conditions, human decision-making capabilities tend to decline, even with rigorous training. Unlike the more individually empowered decision-making of pilots, maritime operations function as a collective body, making efficient decision-making challenging in extreme sea and weather conditions.
3. Addressing the notion of "motion stabilization," a feasible solution is only applicable to the roll motion of conventional hulls common in navies. Other motions pose technical challenges. In contrast, an unmanned system with a core crew located on land remains efficient and functional.
4. Furthermore, human reliance on communication introduces inefficiencies compared to machines with faster data exchange capabilities. In an unmanned system, roles can be efficiently multiplied or divided as needed, enhancing operational effectiveness and safety through efficient digital communication techniques.
5. Eliminating the need for crew-life support mechanisms in unmanned systems reduces the size of platforms significantly or, when size is maintained, extends endurance and range. For instance, a 10 to 11-meter unmanned boat can easily achieve seven or more days of endurance during patrol duties, a remarkable improvement compared to the typical one-day endurance for boats of similar size.
6. Consider the aspect of replacement: constructing and training an entirely new crew takes considerable time, while a portion of a crew can be rotated among similar hulls with minimal training. However, officer positions require significant training and are not easily filled. In contrast, for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), replacement is primarily dependent on construction delays, allowing for spare USVs to mitigate losses up to a certain size.
7. Collectively, the factors outlined above contribute to a quieter hull, significantly enhancing the reliability of on-board or towed sensor systems.

Application​

Anti-submarine warfare​

In the realm of anti-submarine warfare (ASW), an established and enduring technique involves deploying active sonars in bi-static mode, utilizing a dedicated formation to scan expansive areas. Typically, two or multiple identical ASW units navigate in formation, executing maneuvers as directed. In this application, one or two units intermittently switch to transmitter mode, while the others remain in a "listening" mode to interpret incoming data. This methodology offers a robust and expeditious means of scanning an area, providing valuable insights. However, the constraints of finite human and technical resources within naval operations preclude the unlimited multiplication of major or minor ASW assets.

In a standard ASW configuration, a typical asset may include 1-2 helicopters equipped with dipping sonar, 1 towed-array sonar, and 1 hull-mounted sonar. Achieving seamless cooperation among these diverse assets poses a substantial challenge, given their distinct capabilities and operational dynamics.

Below are the essential milestones of an Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operation, spanning from inception to completion. Throughout the outlined sequence, the distinctive advantages offered by Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) are emphasized through the use of bold text.

Measures of Effectiveness:

• Probability of ASW forces successfully completing their ASW mission.
• Probability of submarines failing to accomplish their mission.

Measures of System-Level Performance for ASW Detection:

• Probability of detection as a function of lateral range.
• Cumulative probability of detection as a function of range.

ASW Classification:

• Probability that a contact classified as POSSUB is valid.
• Probability of correct classification given a valid contact.
• False contact rate.
• Time from detection to correct classification.

ASW Localization:

• Probability of successful localization given a valid contact.
• Time from detection/classification to localization.
• Probability of localization as a function of lateral range.
• Cumulative probability of localization as a function of range.

ASW Assault:

• Probability of a successful attack.
• Time from localization to attack.

ASW Vulnerability:

• Probability of counter detection versus lateral range.
• Cumulative probability of counter detection versus range.
• Cumulative probability of torpedo detection versus range.
• Cumulative probability of torpedo classification versus range.
• Cumulative probability of torpedo hit versus range.

ASW System Material Reliability:

• Operational availability.
• Reliability.
• Maintainability.
• Operation to specification.

ASW Effectiveness = (PD×PSL×PSA×ASWR)

Breaking it down:

• PD (Probability of Detection): Represents the effectiveness of detecting submarines in a given area, considering lateral range and range.
• PSL (Probability of Successful Localization): Accounts for the probability of precisely determining the location of a detected submarine, considering lateral range and range.
• PSA (Probability of Successful Attack): Reflects the likelihood of a successful attack once a submarine has been localized.
• ASWR (ASW System Material Reliability): Operational availability, reliability, maintainability, and adherence to specifications contribute to the overall reliability and functionality of the ASW system.

The formula highlights the key elements contributing to ASW effectiveness, and the inclusion of USVs can be denoted as:

ASW Effectiveness with USVs > ASW Effectiveness without USVs

The integration of Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), with their autonomous capabilities, advanced AI systems for data analysis, and efficient digital communication techniques, is anticipated to have a substantial positive impact on several factors, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operations.

In addition to the practical considerations mentioned above, assessing the condition in accordance with ASW procedures suggests that an unmanned ASW platform is likely to generate less self-noise compared to a manned frigate. This reduction is attributed to the absence of machinery and pumps necessary for human occupancy. A smaller platform inherently contributes to minimal volume propulsion, less wake disturbance, decreased machinery, and consequently, reduced airborne-hull transmitted noise.

Further evaluation of the aforementioned aspects leads to a compelling conclusion:

• Unmanned systems, or a collective herd of such systems, demonstrate commendable reception and threat classification capabilities due to their strategically distributed deployment.
• Concerns about vulnerability become obsolete, as unmanned platforms can swiftly approach the torpedo range of a submarine when necessary, efficiently classifying potential threats.
• Sensor reliability sees a significant improvement due to low self-noise, resulting in an overall weak signature that proves challenging to counter-detect. The inclusion of redundant sensors further enhances the reliability of receptance and measurement.
• Deployable in multiple quantities alongside a mothership, USVs boast an endurance of a week or more. Operating in harmony with the mothership during voyages, they prove more efficient than helicopters when working in bi-static/multi-static mode.
• USVs can seamlessly integrate dipping, towed array, or variable depth sonar systems. The platform's size dictates the choice, allowing even smaller-sized platforms to deploy dipping or towed array sonar, whereas a mid-sized platform is more efficient for variable depth sonar. In blue waters, the vulnerability of Variable Depth Sonar (VDS) is mitigated, as USVs can be accompanied or deployed alongside the mothership.

The subsequent topics are briefly addressed, and their correlation with the outcomes of Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) applications will be expounded upon, thereby enhancing comprehension.

Anti-Surface Warfare (ASuW):​

1. Persistent Surveillance: UMVs, with extended endurance, offer continuous surveillance over vast maritime areas, enabling early detection of surface threats.
2. Rapid Response: The agility and autonomy of UMVs facilitate swift responses to dynamic surface threats, ensuring timely and effective countermeasures.
3. Flexibility in Weaponry: UMVs can be equipped with a variety of surface-to-surface weapons, adapting to specific mission requirements and threat scenarios.

Anti-Air Warfare (AAW)​

1. Reconnaissance Enhancement: UMVs, characterized by secure communication and agility, contribute significantly to reconnaissance, providing critical data for air defense systems.
2. Communication Relay: UMVs can serve as communication relays for air defense networks, improving data exchange and enhancing the overall efficiency of AAW operations.
3. Sensor Deployment: Equipped with advanced sensors, UMVs contribute to air surveillance, extending the reach of air defense systems and improving situational awareness.
4. Bi-static and multi-static deployment with longer endurance.

Counter-Insurgency (COIN)​

1. Intelligence Gathering: UMVs, with autonomous capabilities, play a pivotal role in intelligence gathering, providing real-time data for counter-insurgency operations.
2. Surveillance and Security: UMVs assist in maintaining maritime security through continuous surveillance, detecting and responding to irregular activities in coastal and littoral regions.
3. Flexibility in Maneuvers: The agility of UMVs allows them to navigate intricate coastal environments, reaching areas where traditional vessels might face challenges.

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)​

1. Prolonged Mission Endurance: UMVs, with extended endurance, are well-suited for prolonged ISR missions, ensuring consistent data collection over extended periods.
2. Efficient Sensor Deployment: UMVs can deploy a variety of sensors, including optical, thermal, and radar systems, enhancing the quality and diversity of ISR data.
3. Collaborative ISR: Multiple UMVs can collaborate in ISR missions, forming a distributed network to cover larger areas and share real-time intelligence.

Electronic Intelligence (ELINT)​

1. Advanced Electronic Sensors: Equipped with sophisticated electronic sensors, UMVs contribute significantly to ELINT operations by collecting and analyzing electronic signals.
2. Reduced Self-Noise: UMVs' minimal self-noise enhances their ELINT capabilities, allowing for more precise detection and analysis of electronic signals.
3. Autonomous Data Processing: UMVs can autonomously process and analyze ELINT data, reducing the need for external support and ensuring rapid and accurate intelligence.

Revisiting Technical assessment of the Unmanned Marine Vehicles (UMV)​

The dominance of unmanned systems in contemporary military discussions is undeniable, spanning ethical considerations, operational efficiency, and inherent security challenges. Their prowess in anti-symmetric warfare and cost-effectiveness for monitoring, ISR, and precision strike missions compared to manned systems is noteworthy.

Turning attention to the challenges and risks faced by present-day unmanned marine vehicles:

1. Risk of Loss:
   • The potential loss and capture of unmanned systems by adversaries pose a significant intelligence and technological threat.
   • Unlike aerial counterparts, these systems, if intact, should be equipped with robust self-check systems capable of decisive actions, such as subsystem shutdown or self-sinking to prevent compromising sensitive information.
   • Reliability in decision-making, with accuracy exceeding 99.99%, is crucial for prolonged sea deployments to mitigate the heightened probability of failures over time.
2. Maintenance:
   • Manned ships benefit from self-maintenance to a certain extent due to the onboard crew.
   • Even advanced warships rely on human intervention for routine mechanical tasks, underlining the ship's complexity akin to a floating battalion.
   • Various mechanical components, from pumps and hydraulics to generators and main engines, demand continuous attention and expertise for optimal functionality.
3. Jamming, Hacking, Electronic Attacks:
   • The security of unmanned systems is vulnerable to electronic attacks, hacking attempts, and electronic warfare.
   • Interruptions in communication systems can occur due to damage sustained in deployment, with potential risks being higher during extended sea operations.
   • The susceptibility to jamming necessitates exploration of more secure communication options.

In the realm of Security, Communication, and P2P chain technologies:

1. Reliance on Central Communication:
   • Unmanned systems, regardless of their sophistication, currently depend on central communication for mission fulfillment.
   • Risks arise from electronic attacks, hacking attempts, or damage to communication systems during extended sea deployments.
   • Future applications may explore advanced underwater acoustic-laser communication techniques to minimize jamming risks.
2. Reliance on In-Between Communication:
   • Unmanned systems prove advantageous in distributed schemes, sharing risks across multiple units.
   • Complexities arise in coordinating a herd of unmanned systems, exchanging data in multi-static mode with a central processing unit.
   • Emerging techniques may involve high-bandwidth underwater acoustic-laser communication, offering improved resilience against jamming and interruptions, potentially enabling UM-UM-T (Surface, Underwater, Terrestrial) schemes.

In the Domain of Maintenance:

1. Self-Onboard Maintenance
   • Autonomous Diagnostics: Unmanned systems deploy autonomous diagnostics for continuous self-monitoring.
   • Self-Repair Systems: Onboard maintenance capabilities include autonomous self-repair systems.
   • Redundancy Checks: Regular redundancy checks ensure system reliability without external intervention.
2. External Maintenance (At Port)
   • Human-Assisted Tasks: Certain maintenance tasks necessitate human assistance during port visits.
   • Advanced Diagnostics: External maintenance involves intricate diagnostics and repairs conducted by specialized crews.
   • Software Updates: Port-based maintenance includes critical tasks such as software updates, system upgrades, and comprehensive inspections.

On the Front of Endurance:

1. Duration of Operation
   • Extended Autonomy: Unmanned systems showcase extended operational autonomy, capable of enduring missions for weeks or more.
   • Energy Efficiency: Innovative power management solutions contribute to the elongation of mission durations.
   • Fuel and Resource Optimization: Systems are designed with efficiency in fuel usage, maximizing overall endurance.
2. Endurance in Environmental Conditions
   • Harsh Weather Tolerance: Unmanned systems are engineered to withstand harsh environmental conditions.
   • Sea State Adaptability: Agility in adverse sea states contributes to sustained endurance.
   • Temperature and Humidity Management: Environmental endurance encompasses mechanisms to manage varying temperatures and humidity levels.
3. Addressing the Notion of Agility
   • Swift Maneuvers: Unmanned systems, unrestricted by human limitations, can execute rapid and precise maneuvers.
   • Adaptability to Dynamic Situations: Agility allows for quick adaptation to changing operational scenarios.
   • Enhanced Response Times: The inherent agility enables rapid responses to emerging threats, enhancing overall mission success.

Fin​

In the evolving landscape of naval warfare, Unmanned Marine Vehicles (UMVs) emerge as transformative assets, captivating discussions on military applications, ethics, and operational efficiency. Their prowess in anti-symmetric warfare, coupled with cost-effectiveness in monitoring, ISR, and precision strike missions, positions them at the forefront of maritime advancements. Yet, challenges loom, from the critical risks of loss and maintenance complexities to the vulnerabilities posed by electronic warfare. As we explore the horizons of UMVs, the commitment to enhancing their capabilities becomes paramount. Innovations in autonomous maintenance, extended endurance, and heightened agility mark significant strides. The intersection of security, communication, and emerging P2P chain technologies underscores the necessity to address reliance on central communication and explore in-between communication methodologies, perhaps through underwater acoustic-laser techniques.

However, the deployment of unmanned systems presents a nuanced dynamic, akin to a double-edged sword. While their autonomy and efficiency hold promise for revolutionizing maritime operations, the reliance on advanced technologies introduces vulnerabilities. Instances of potential loss, the intricate nature of maintenance, and susceptibility to electronic warfare illustrate that as UMVs become indispensable assets, the need for robust security measures and fail-safes becomes increasingly crucial. Striking a delicate balance between harnessing the advantages of unmanned systems and mitigating their inherent risks will be pivotal for navigating the future seascape of naval warfare.