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satria

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Strong message maybe yes, but what about South China Sea and Myanmar? Why the response not as strong as it? Because domestically not sexy?
maaf masbro, sy ga jago debat dan ga da data akurat ... tapi bila dalam 3 bulan 25 000 korba wafat n gara2 mo brantas Hamas ... ga masuk akal .

sy bukan pencinta Hamas, tapi bila berada di Gaza ... apapun sy lakukan buat bales ke israel .
 

Gary

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I'm well aware of previous calls for retreat, even Rand Paul had floated the idea a few times a few years back. But back then, everyone was fresh with adrenaline after years of combating ISIS on conventional terms, no one for example has any incentive to retreat right after they had just finished their original goal. And generally speaking, the situation is unique back then for the U.S. to continue operating in Syria

Now the situation the different, I think even after the loss of the physical caliphate, the Americans sooner or later (if not already), figured out that there's really no way to 100% curb ISIS militancy, just November last month ISIS scored the single deadliest months for SAA/allies troops in 2023 around the Badia desert. Which meant that their presence in NES in nothing more than as guardsmen for the Kurdish nation building project project with no real impact against D-ISIS on the ground. But this time the calculations for the cost-benefit ratio of staying has shifted.

The geopolitical situation has shifted a lot since then (pre-2020s), back then the U.S. doesn't have to worry about daily attacks by Iran-led militias on its base. The war in Gaza and the involvement of Iran's proxy militia has significantly raised the price of continuing U.S. presence. Again Rand Paul correctly described it as a "tripwire", where it could led the U.S. to an unwanted war, which the U.S is getting dangerously close now. It could be just that the cost of staying is now a lot more expensive than the benefit in Syria and that cost is steadily rising each day with the proxy of Iran escalating attacks against U.S bases in the light of the war in Gaza.


A wider war with Iran and its proxies is not on the list of U.S. agenda right now, they simply don't have the stomach, as has been demonstrated by their limited action against the Houthis in Yemen or the PMF in Iraq because at the same time they're trying to pivot to the Pacific which is already severely compromised by their aid to Israel.

To be blunt the U.S. is now severely overstretched with commitments in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East (which bthey had tried so hard to abandon) and now even in Latin America as Venezuela is poised to invade Guayana. Another major political crisis and there's every reason to believe that the Rojava agenda will slip even further down the list of Washington's foreign policy agenda.

There will be time where U.S. policy makers are confronted by the stark choice of continuing their presence with rising costs and reduced benefits, and most likely chooses the easy path of abandoning when the cost is >> benefit, this has been proven again and again in Viet Nam and Afghanistan. No one early in Viet Nam or Afghanistan would have predicted that the U.S will abandon its allies to the dog after years of propping them up and hailing them as their ultimate allies.

But in Viet Nam and Afghanistan, war fatigue eventually consumes them, the earlier justifications for war such as the prevention of the spread of Communism (Viet Nam) and the defeat of Islamic militancy (Afghanistan) gave way to other priorities at home and politicians own agenda.


I'm willing to bet that Mazloum Abadi of SDF will spend his time like this man below in a decade or two.






============

Talking about Lindsey Graham, I'm well aware of his effort to limit the scope of Turkish army during the 2019 Peace Spring operations, but I'm also aware that Lindsey Graham, like all politicians, is keen to switch stance accordingly as they see fit. Just 6 months ago, Lindsey Graham is the top Ukrainian supporter on the House, yet in a twist of fate it is also Lindsey Graham who rose up to torpedo the supplemental aid to Ukraine in 2023

Lindsey just 6 months ago

"(Ukraine) is the best money we've ever spent" (0:28)


Lindsey at the end of the year LMAO




Anyway, if it finally comes true, I expect heavy persecution of the Kurds. Nobody likes them there not even the SAA, which they betray many times (notable in Hasakeh).

It is imperative the the Arabs to heavily crush and persecute the Kurds once the Americans are out, and make an example of the Kurds to 'silently' send a message to israel (which the Kurds really liked and aspire to become the second israel) that eventually you will be abandoned and we will wipe you out.

Note that attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq by the Islamic resistance will force PM Sudani to eventually close the border with Syria. Without Iraq, U.S. adventures in NES will fail miserably as their logistical lifeline will be cut.


Best way is of course for Turkiye and Assad to form a plan to carve Rojava in two, with Assad regaining borders with Iraq, while Turkiye creates more buffer zone. This can be done and this is better than having the Americans there.
 

Gary

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Anyway, if it finally comes true, I expect heavy persecution of the Kurds. Nobody likes them there not even the SAA, which they betray many times (notable in Hasakeh).

It is imperative the the Arabs to heavily crush and persecute the Kurds once the Americans are out, and make an example of the Kurds to 'silently' send a message to israel (which the Kurds really liked and aspire to become the second israel) that eventually you will be abandoned and we will wipe you out.

Note that attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq by the Islamic resistance will force PM Sudani to eventually close the border with Syria. Without Iraq, U.S. adventures in NES will fail miserably as their logistical lifeline will be cut.


Best way is of course for Turkiye and Assad to form a plan to carve Rojava in two, with Assad regaining borders with Iraq, while Turkiye creates more buffer zone. This can be done and this is better than having the Americans there.

Next in line is of course the destruction of the Iraqi Kurdistan project. Iran and Iraq's cooperation will be key here.

The Second Israel they say LOL

gettyimages-853026076-1506534261.jpg
 

schuimpjes

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maaf masbro, sy ga jago debat dan ga da data akurat ... tapi bila dalam 3 bulan 25 000 korba wafat n gara2 mo brantas Hamas ... ga masuk akal .

sy bukan pencinta Hamas, tapi bila berada di Gaza ... apapun sy lakukan buat bales ke israel .
But whatever it is, legally it cannot be called as genocide. For something to be called as genocide need certain criteria to be fulfilled, for example, done ‘systematically’, order from the most top to bottom to exterminate certain political, demographical groups etc.

For example, if a military company killing all villagers of certain village, it cannot be bluntly called as a genocide, that called as mass killings. Investigation needed are this action did with the order from the top to kill all those people, if not then it is not a genocide. Yes, genocide is ‘legal’ term rather than everyday casual term that we use.
 

satria

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But whatever it is, legally it cannot be called as genocide. For something to be called as genocide need certain criteria to be fulfilled, for example, done ‘systematically’, order from the most top to bottom to exterminate certain political, demographical groups etc.

For example, if a military company killing all villagers of certain village, it cannot be bluntly called as a genocide, that called as mass killings. Investigation needed are this action did with the order from the top to kill all those people, if not then it is not a genocide. Yes, genocide is ‘legal’ term rather than everyday casual term that we use.
debat kusir gini bukan area sy, masbro

sy mah kaya prajurit bila terdesak ya hajar aj ... apalgi rumah atau kluarga udah jadi korban ... no way hose for legal2an .. :)
 

schuimpjes

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At least those countries that sok keras need to make their narratives better. They are state level, not Pro–OPM NGOs level.

Minimal buat narasi nya yang niat lah
 

schuimpjes

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Honestly, Israeli–Palestinian conflict is the worst for me. The only thing it produce is hatred. Started just about this and that ethnic groups claim of this and that land, why religions comes in and anyone so chronically dragged here? So chronic that maybe even parents, teachers far away would spread and preserve the hatred to its children and pupils. The effects of this conflict just too damaging.
 

satria

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Media itu menyebutkan salah satu capres Indonesia bahkan sampai unggul hingga mencapai suara 50 persen dengan judul "Who will be the next president of Indonesia?"


Nekat :ROFLMAO:
 

Gary

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A good documentary by DW to understand the minds of these zionists


The good thing about what's happening in Gaza right now is that it happens at the time where everyone is literally a walking NEWS AGENCY of their own, with a phone and internet access everyone could showcase the brutality of the zionist settlers, this is not something normal as late as the late 2000s where the news must be 'filtered' by the state and that state is more often a client state that didn't wish to antagonize Israel.

Arabs and Muslims are going to explode in population at the end of this century. There will be more Arabs in the world at this particular geographic location (only)...

arab.png


Then there will be Chinese (which will drop to half their size in 2100). And most of these people are young

Screenshot 2024-01-25 001635.png


Israel really don't understand what kind of Pandora's box they're opening here with their open genocide in Gaza. An entire projected 900B+ Arabs + 2.5B+ non-Arab Muslims all around the world are now going to hate them to their very core.

The usual tactics of normalization such as "Israel is not our enemy" or " We are both Abrahamic culture" won't cut it anymore. 2.5 billion Muslims worldwide are going to make sure that they will not exist anymore and if they fail in their generation, they will make sure the generation after them carry on the project to end this zionist entity. Israel WON'T outlast us, they're too small and they're dependent on foreign help.

For example, I don't think these kind of moves will be acceptable anymore after this:

4044070482.jpeg


Also If you are Muslims, please remember that in Occupied Palestine, the Aqsa complex is under occupation and there's no reason for you to even think about normalization with Israel (unless of course you're a traitor which is plenty from time to time). Whenever you think about "economic benefits yada yada", please remember that these people, our brothers in Palestine risks their lives under occupation so that the Mosque stays functioning. This is them, a few protecting the honor of 1.3 billion Muslims in their holy land. What makes you think you could put your weight behind the talk of normalization ?


 
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schuimpjes

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The difference between one strike capabilities with another is called as strike gap, and this is the gap that many in Australia talks about. Some say that Australia even need B-21 to lessen the strike gap, lessen the gap against who? Anyone already know.

Their approach for today’s situation called as “strategic competition”, and by that, on defense policy, anyone could imagine if they not only need A2/AD capabilities, but also strike capabilities. And also about defense, they not just see defense is just in the ‘moat’ (sea-air gap, Australian term?), but also against space based and cyber threats. Even in moat, world know new threat called hypersonic weapons that no or almost no capability can intercept it now.

Add in this time where grey zone conflict is become the norm; space, cyber and special operation capabilities are the weapons of choice, the so called “modern triad”, handy weapons to waging war and prevent/deter in grey zone threats.

Indonesia need to be realistic. If chasing balance of power against China, Australia even talk about B-21, what can this developing country can do? Do what they do by trying to balance the power? One can be optimistic, but reality is where you live in. Use our defense budgets efficiently, more prioritization of what posture we gonna do rather than put money to all baskets that only thin capabilities we can get our hands on. Forget about chasing the strike gap, even limited strike capability against today’s potential adversary A2/AD capabilities udah bagus banget.

Edit: minor words corrections.
 
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Lordimperator

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The difference between one strike capabilities with another is called as strike gap, and this is the gap that many in Australia talks about. Some say that Australia even need B-21 to lessen the strike gap, lessen the gap against who? Anyone already know.

Their approach for today’s situation called as “strategic competition”, and by that, on defense policy, anyone could imagine if they not only need A2/AD capabilities, but also strike capabilities. And also about defense, they not just see defense is just in the ‘moat’ (sea-air gap, Australian term?), but also against space based and cyber threats. Even in moat, world know new threat called hypersonic weapons that no or almost no capability can intercept it now.

Add in this time where grey zone conflict is become the norm; space, cyber and special operation capabilities are the weapons of choice, the so called “modern triad”, handy weapons to waging war and prevent/deter in grey zone threats.

Indonesia need to be realistic. If chasing balance of power against China, Australia even talk about B-21, what can this developing country can do? Do what they do by trying to balance the power? One can be optimistic, but reality is where you live in. Use our defense budgets efficiently, more prioritization of what posture we gonna do rather than put money to all baskets that only thin capabilities we can get our hands on. Forget about chasing the strike gap, even limited strike capability against today’s potential adversary A2/AD capabilities udah bagus banget.

Edit: minor words corrections.
Submarine launched land attack missiles.
Getting SCALP naval, or its derivative for our hiu kencana armada.
 
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